CRT Operations in Low Water Conditions
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- Toby Atkinson
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1 CRT Operations in Low Water Conditions Friday, May 27, 2016
2 Outline Utility Planning Background CRT Rule Curves 2015 Operations Future possibilities?
3 Integrated Resource Plan - Key Planning Questions 1. How much electricity is needed? 2. What is the gap between supply and demand? 3. What are the options to fill the gap? 4. Which options best meet need? Resource Plan
4
5 Average Annual MW Load Resource Balance (1yr) Pacific Northwest System Annual Energy Load Secondary Energy -displaces thermal other Thermal Hydro 5000 Firm Energy Firm Energy 0 Low Water Yr High Water Yr Definitions: Firm Energy energy generated during driest water conditions in historical record Critical Period time period during driest water conditions where reservoirs draft from full to empty
6 Critical Period: Aug 1928 to Dec 1932 Critical Period
7 Critical Rule Curves Proportional Draft: Under CRT, if generation for ORC does not equal the system firm energy target, then all coordinated reservoirs are modeled to be drafted proportionally between 1st and 2nd CRC; if still not meet then proportionally drafted between 2nd and 3rd CRCs, then 3 rd and 4th. URC = Upper Rule curve ORC = Operating Rule curve
8 Summary - CRT regulation under dry conditions Under dry conditions, more water is released from Canadian and U.S. Storage according to the terms of the Columbia River Treaty. Objective is to maximize the firm energy in the Critical period so reservoirs with lowest energy production drafted first: Arrow (180 MW) and Duncan (0 MW) drafted first, Mica and U.S. headwater projects (Libby, Dworshak, Hungry Horse) next, Grand Coulee drafts last (6800 MW) Canada obligated to draft reservoirs to the CRCs for energy reliability, while U.S. may re-regulate flows for other power or non-power purposes. Regardless of generation, U.S. obligated to deliver Canadian Entitlement to B.C.
9 2015 Dry Conditions This spring and summer s continued dry conditions in the US and Canadian portion of the Columbia Basin have resulted in lower levels for Canadian Storage and other Columbia Basin reservoirs in Canada and the U.S was the third driest year on record for the overall Columbia River basin (US and Canada) since Total runoff for the Columbia basin between April and August was 67 per cent of normal. Similar conditions have not been observed since 2001
10 1 0 Precipitation and Temperature
11 1 1 Precipitation and Temperature
12 1 2 WATER SUPPLY FORECAST
13 CANADIAN RUNOFF Feb-Sep 2015 Unregulated Inflows Mica: 106% of normal Arrow: 93% Duncan: 96% Kootenay Lake: 81% Normal is based on
14 UNITED STATES RUNOFF Apr-Aug 2015 Unregulated Inflows Grand Coulee: 74% of normal Lower Granite: 54% The Dalles: 67% (Jan-Jul at The Dalles was 83%) Normal is based on
15 Critical Rule Curves 8000 Composite Curve for Canadian Treaty Storage Operating Year Storage (ksfd) CRC1 CRC2 CRC3 CRC4 Refill Curve APR 23 TSR OCT 7 TSR 0 31-Jul 31-Aug 30-Sep 31-Oct 30-Nov 31-Dec 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun 31-Jul 31-Aug 30-Sep
16 Support for Arrow levels BC Hydro took many steps to keep Arrow Lakes Reservoir levels as high as possible throughout the summer and fall. Low elevations were improved by: Increasing discharges from Duncan Dam to allow, under the Columbia River Treaty, reduced discharges from the Arrow Lakes Reservoir. A Treaty summer storage agreement was developed between the Treaty Entities to delay Arrow Treaty releases from July into August. Generating more from Mica than average to help support Arrow Reservoir levels. Between April and October, Mica discharges (to Arrow) have been approximately 180 per cent above average. Retaining available Non-Treaty storage water in Canada. Negotiating an agreement with the U.S. to provide storage access into each recallable account.
17 Future changes in CRT for low water? Some things to think about: There are tradeoffs between CND and U.S. interests CRT is beneficial to U.S. in dry years and wet years, if we always had an average year U.S. would probably terminate. Canadian Entitlement payment based on drafting for firm energy U.S. ecosystem scenarios did the opposite filled Arrow quickly and drafted it quickly. Scenario asking for 4 MAF of flow augmentation instead of current 1 MAF
18
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