Appendix E Abatement Cost and Market Price Data

Transcription

1 1 Appendix E Abatement Cost and Market Price Data

2 SO 2 Abatement Cost Data This section presents cost curve data for SO 2 for selected key scenarios modelled in this study. Following the cost curve there is more detailed information on the individual measures, given in a number of figures. The emissions reductions and costs are compared to the BAU scenario, although the figures include a small number of additional measures to comply with the NECD 2010 ceilings 1 (a BAU commitment). Note that the high costs for some measures relate to scenarios that include the constraint of the potential NECD 2020 ceilings. For some MSs these may be challenging to achieve and may require measures at the more expensive end of the cost curve. Figure E1 Abatement Cost Curves for SO 2 1,800 Scenario 3 1,600 1,400 Total Cost 1,200 1, Scenario 2 Scenario 5 Scenario 9 Scenario Scenario 4 Scenario ,000 1,200 Cumulative Emissions Reductions (ktpa) Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 9 Scenario 11 Scenario 12 1 For SO2, this cost is estimated at 14mpa.

3 Table E1.1 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 2 Biomass Cement Absorbent addition Improve FGD / high efficiency FGD FCCs: Wet FGD COG desulphurisation (coke oven) Switch to low S coal Coker/calcinators: Wet FGD Non- combustion processes: Various measures ,105 Table E1.2 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 3 Cement Absorbent addition Improve FGD / high efficiency FGD FCCs: Wet FGD COG desulphurisation (coke oven) Cement Wet scrubbers ,003 FCCs: DeSOx catalyst ,004 Switch to low S coal ,143 Wet desulphurisation ,298 Biomass ,380 Non- combustion 1, ,751 processes: Various Low S coal (coke oven) 1, ,773 Coker/calcinators: Wet FGD 1, ,820

4 Table E1.3 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 4 Cement Absorbent addition Improve FGD / high efficiency FGD Biomass FCCs: Wet FGD Cement Wet scrubbers Coal closure and new CCGT COG desulphurisation (coke oven) Switch to low S coal Non- combustion processes: Various Table E1.4 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario Cement Absorbent addition Improve FGD / high efficiency FGD COG desulphurisation (coke oven) FCCs: Wet FGD FCCs: DeSOx catalyst Cement Wet scrubbers Switch to low S coal Wet desulphurisation 1, Biomass 1, ,094 Non- combustion 1, ,160 processes: Various Low S coal (coke oven) 1, ,182 Coker/calcinators: Wet FGD 1, ,184

5 Table E1.5 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 9 Cement Absorbent addition Improve FGD / high efficiency FGD Non- combustion processes: Various COG desulphurisation (coke oven) Coal closure and new CCGT FCCs: Wet FGD Cement Wet scrubbers Biomass 1, FCCs: DeSOx catalyst 1, Switch to low S coal 1, Wet desulphurisation 1, Table E1.6 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario Cement Absorbent addition Improve FGD / high efficiency FGD Non- combustion processes: Various COG desulphurisation (coke oven) FCCs: Wet FGD Cement Wet scrubbers Switch to low S coal 1, FCCs: DeSOx catalyst 1, Biomass 1, Wet desulphurisation 1,

6 Table E1.7 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 12 Cement Absorbent addition Improve FGD / high efficiency FGD Biomass FCCs: Wet FGD Cement Wet scrubbers Switch to low S coal Coal closure and new CCGT COG desulphurisation (coke oven) Non- combustion processes: Various NOx Abatement Cost Data This section presents cost curve data for NOx for selected key scenarios modelled in this study. Following the cost curve there is more detailed information on the individual measures, given in a number of figures. The emissions reductions and costs are compared to the BAU scenario, although the figures include a small number of additional measures to comply with the NECD 2010 ceilings 2 (a BAU commitment). Note that the high costs for some measures relate to scenarios that include the constraint of the potential NECD 2020 ceilings. For some MSs these may be challenging to achieve and may require measures at the more expensive end of the cost curve. 2 For NOx, this cost is estimated at less than 10mpa.

7 Figure E2 Abatement Cost Curves for NOx 1,600 Scenario 3 1,400 1,200 Total Cost 1, Scenario 2 Scenario Scenario 9 Scenario Scenario 4 Scenario Cumulative Emissions Reductions (ktpa) Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 9 Scenario 11 Scenario 12 Table E1.8 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 2 Cement Low-NOx burner Improve SCR / high efficiency SCR SCR , FCCs: SNCR 231 2, Coal closure and open CCS 235 3, SCR for gas 333 8,941 1,055

8 Table E1.9 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 3 Cement Staged combustion Cement Low-NOx burner Cement SNCR Cement Flame cooling Fenix system (reduction of excess air and flame optimisation) Combustion modification burner changes SCR Improve SCR / high efficiency SCR Cement SCR Pulp and Paper Firing condition control , FCCs: SNCR 638 1, Non- combustion: 639 3, Ultra-Low NOx boilers (internal recirculation of flu-gas + low NOx burner) Pulp and Paper SCR 639 3, SCR 739 3, Coal closure and open 742 3, CCS SCR 746 5, Non- combustion: 747 5, SCR SCR for gas 847 8,994 1,670 FCCs: DeNOx CO ,646 1,670 promoter Non- combustion processes: Switch from oil to natural gas ,236 1,670

9 Table E1.10 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 4 Coal closure and new CCGT Non- combustion: Ultra-Low NOx boilers (internal recirculation of flu-gas + low NOx burner) Cement Staged combustion Cement Low-NOx burner Non- combustion: SCR Cement SNCR Fenix system (reduction of excess air and flame optimisation) Improve SCR / high efficiency SCR Cement Flame cooling SCR Table E1.11 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 5 Cement Staged combustion Cement Low-NOx burner Cement SNCR Cement Flame cooling Fenix system (reduction of excess air and flame optimisation) Combustion modification - burner changes Improve SCR / high efficiency SCR SCR SCR Pulp and Paper Firing condition control Cement SCR FCCs: SNCR

10 Table E1.11 (continued) Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 5 SNCR SCR for gas Non- combustion: Ultra-Low NOx boilers (internal recirculation of flu-gas + low NOx burner) Pulp and Paper SCR SCR Non- combustion: SCR FCCs: DeNOx CO promoter Non- combustion processes: Switch from oil to natural gas Table E1.12 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 9 Coal closure and new CCGT Cement Staged combustion Cement Low-NOx burner Cement SNCR Non- combustion: SCR Non- combustion: Ultra-Low NOx boilers (internal recirculation of flu-gas + low NOx burner) Cement Flame cooling Fenix system (reduction of excess air and flame optimisation) Improve SCR / high efficiency SCR Combustion modification - burner changes SCR for gas

11 Table E1.12 (continued) Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 9 FCCs: SNCR SCR Pulp and Paper Firing condition control Cement SCR Table E1.13 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 11 Cement Staged combustion Cement Low-NOx burner Cement SNCR Non- combustion: SCR Non- combustion: Ultra-Low NOx boilers (internal recirculation of flu-gas + low NOx burner) Cement Flame cooling Fenix system (reduction of excess air and flame optimisation) SCR Improve SCR / high efficiency SCR Combustion modification - burner changes SCR SCR for gas FCCs: SNCR Cement SCR Pulp and Paper Firing condition control

12 Table E1.14 Abatement Cost Curve Scenario 12 Coal closure and new CCGT Non- combustion: Ultra-Low NOx boilers (internal recirculation of flu-gas + low NOx burner) Cement Staged combustion Cement Low-NOx burner Non- combustion: SCR Cement SNCR Fenix system (reduction of excess air and flame optimisation) Improve SCR / high efficiency SCR Cement Flame cooling SCR

13 Market Price Data The table below presents the TSM estimated market prices for various emission trading scenarios under the assumed perfect market. The TSM has a function to identify the shadow cost of increasing a constraint by 1 unit, which is how it calculates the market price. Estimated Market Prices Scenario Level of cap / PSR NECD Ceiling 2020 / Flexibility (Note 1) Trading Zone Opt-in of MSs (rest covered by ref scenario) Market Price ( /t) NOx SO2 1 BAU N/A N/A N/A No trading 2 Ref N/A N/A N/A No trading 3 Ref N/A Yes / No N/A N/A No trading 4 C&T Upper BAT-AEL 1 zone (EU27) N/A C&T Upper BAT-AEL Yes / No 1 zone (EU27) N/A N/A N/A 6 C&T Upper BAT-AEL Yes / Yes 1 zone (EU27) N/A N/A N/A 7 C&T Upper BAT-AEL 3 zones (NE, NW, S) N/A 3 zones: NE 570 1,170 NW S 198 1,703 8 C&T Upper BAT-AEL 27 zones (each MS) N/A 27 market prices 9 C&T Intermediate BAT-AEL 1 zone (EU27) N/A 1,299 3, C&T Lower BAT-AEL 1 zone (EU27) N/A 19,377 83, C&T NECD 2020 Ceilings 12 C&T Ref scenario emissions 1 zone (EU27) N/A 1 zone (EU27) N/A 1,180 3, C&T Upper BAT-AEL 1 zone (opt-in MSs) UK, NL, BE 1, C&T Upper BAT-AEL 1 zone (opt-in MSs) UK, NL, BE, SE, PL B&C Upper BAT-AEL 1 zone (EU27) N/A B&C Intermediate BAT-AEL 17 B&C Based on Dutch NOx ETS 1 zone (EU27) N/A 1 zone (EU27) N/A 454 1,310 1,910 16,277

14 Note: market prices for the scenarios constrained by the NECD 2020, which over-ride the C&T caps are not applicable as once the NECD constraints are met, there is no additional emissions reduction requirement to meet the overall C&T cap.