MACBETH methodology in use

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Giles Parsons
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1 MCDA Summer School 2010 Sébastien Damart (CNAM - M-Lab/DRM)

2 1. Introduction Monocriteria models Multicriteria models Ex: costs benefits analysis Aggregation procedure with a unique synthetic criteria Ex: weighted sum, MAUT, MAVT, etc. MACBETH Aggregation procedure with a synthetic preference relationship Ex: ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, etc.

3 2. MACBETH methodology Cardinal multicriteria aggregation procedure vs ordinal approaches, Bana e Costa and Vansnick ( ): several applications Preferences elicitation protocol based on the construction of a cardinal scale for each criteria, Judgments of attractiveness differences between alternatives as inputs, References level Neutral and Satisfying.

4 2. MACBETH methodology Performances Criterion Alternatives References levels Satisfying Neutral Attractiveness differences Cardinal scales ( thermometers ) MACBETH weighting Global evaluation Robustness analysis

5 3. Context of the application European project StorHy aiming at evaluating opportunities to pursue R&D efforts on 3 hydrogen storage systems for automotive applications, Different main sub-projects; one sub-project concerns the evaluation and the comparison of the 3 systems, 34 heterogeneous partnerships (Car manufacturers, gas suppliers, academic institutions, etc.).

6 3. Context of the application Complex technical objects; several automotive applications, The 3 storage systems have diverse development progress status; strong uncertainty on forthcoming R&D results, No intervention on the structuring phase of the problem (alternatives, objectives, criteria, methodological choices, etc.) Necessity for a methodological support.

7 3. Context of the application Technique Environment Economy Security Social Tank system volume (l) Resources depletion (adimensional) Tank system cost (!) Accidental H2 release during transportation Simplicity of use Tank system weight (kg)energy consumption (J) Operation & Accidental H2 release during Feeling of Maintenance costs (!) storage in the refuelling stationsecurity Recyclability (%) GHG emissions (kg eq. CO2) Tank recycling cost (!) Accidental H2 release during refuelling Economical aspect H2 purity loss (%) Water emissions (l) H2 cost at refuelling station (!/kg) Accidental H2 release in the vehicle Comfort Refuelling time (s) Air emissions (g eq. SO2) H2 cost at refuelling station (!/kg) Risk related to the tank manufacturing Driving pleasure H2 loss rate (g/h.kgh2) Waste (kg eq. domestic waste) H2 cost at refuelling station (!/kg) Risk related to the tank manufacturing Ecology Shape of tank or conformability (adimensional) Waste (kg eq. domestic waste) H2 cost at refuelling station (!/kg) Risk related to the tank manufacturing Ecology

8 3. Context of the application Justification of MACBETH methodological choice in this context: - No opportunity to intervene on the structuring phase of the problem, - Weaknesses of ordinal aggregation procedures (particularly soft work on performances matrices) and weak knowledge on the storage systems, - Well-structured questioning phases of MACBETH, - Structuring work on references level (positioning R&D efforts and progress of each storage systems).

9 5 main steps Performances / evaluation Validation / modification Elicitation of value functions MACBETH questioning Elicitation of scales invariables MACBETH questioning Determination of a global scale Weighted sum Discussion / validation

10 SOLH SOLA PRE LIQ ESS GAZ ACC SAT CEA rest. Volume Masse Conformabilité Perte H 2 Temps rempl. CEA elarg. PSA CEA rest. CEA elarg. PSA CEA rest. CEA elarg. PSA CEA rest. CEA elarg. PSA CEA rest. CEA elarg. PSA

11 Neutral level Satisfying level Preferences Significative developments to adopt it Important development for this item to become a strength of the technology The item is clearly one of the main R&D priority

12 Value functions (example with volume): - Ranking of studied options (storage systems) OIL > Satisfying > GAS > Neutral > LIQUID > PRESSURE > SOLID - Determination of attraction differences between options on a 7- levels scale : Extreme, Very strong, strong, Moderate, Weak, Very weak and No difference. (- possible hesitations between two consecutive levels)

15 Determination of scales invariables - Principle : introduction of 5 fictitious options - Ranking of these fictitious options

19 Example : liquid storage system

20 Expert group #1 Expert group #2 Expert group #3

21 5. Conclusion: few words about MACBETH with multiple DM - 5 ways of structuring collective decision aiding processes could be identified:

Chapter 17 An MCDA Approach for Evaluating Hydrogen Storage Systems for Future Vehicles

Chapter 17 An MCDA Approach for Evaluating Hydrogen Storage Systems for Future Vehicles Florent Montignac, Vincent Mousseau, Denis Bouyssou, Mohamed Ali Aloulou, Benjamin Rousval, and Sébastien Damart