After Paris COP21: The New Climate Policy Momentum

Transcription

1 After Paris COP21: The New Climate Policy Momentum Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (Université catholique de Louvain) Former IPCC Vice-Chair ( ) «Energy Scenarios: Which Research in Physics?», Les Houches, 7 March 2016 Thanks to the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO) and to my team at the Université catholique de Louvain for their support

2 Plan - Key IPCC AR5 messages - COP21 - What s next?

3 Plan - Key IPCC AR5 messages

4 !"#$"%&'()*+,-".$/01' None So Deaf

5 What is happening in the climate system? What are the risks? What can be done?

6 Key messages from IPCC AR5!!!! Human influence on the climate system is clear Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems While climate change is a threat to sustainable development, there are many opportunities to integrate mitigation, adaptation, and the pursuit of other societal objectives Humanity has the means to limit climate change and build a more sustainable and resilient future IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

7 (IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.1a) Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth s surface than any preceding decade since In the Northern Hemisphere, was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).

8 Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation have become more common 8 There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these extremes!

9 Plateau Glacier (1961) (Alaska) h2p://

10 Plateau Glacier (2003) (Alaska) h2p://

11 P+1,=$':,'1;$%1=$'9$1</$;$/'7+1,=$'

12 Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2! +30% 2015 CO 2 Concentrations (ppm) 1000 years before present (Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA) The concentrations of CO 2 have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.

13 A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution Q!AR1 (1990): unequivocal detection not likely for a decade Q!AR2 (1995): balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence Q!AR3 (2001): most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities Q!AR4 (2007): most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases Q!AR5 (2013) «It is extremely likely (odds 95 out of 100) that human influence has been the dominant cause» R1.13#$.'S%*8'KTPP'?@@U'H' FAR W!L' O!L' AR4 AR5 13

14 Carbon cycle: unperturbed fluxes Atmosphere pre-ind : 597 GtC 280 ppmv (1ppmv = 2.2 GtC) photosynthesis respiration 70 Physical, 70.5 Chemical, and Biological processes 2300 Ocean vanyp@climate.be Units: GtC (billions tons of carbon) or GtC/year (multiply by 3.7 to get GtCO 2 )

15 Carbon cycle: perturbed by human activities (numbers for the decade s, based on IPCC AR4) Atmosphere 280 ppmv ppmv/yr (1ppmv = 2.2 GtC) pre-ind : 597 GtC + 3.2/yr photosynthesis respiration sinks Physical, Chemical, and Biological processes déforestation (& land use changes) 6.4 Fossil fuels Ocean vanyp@climate.be Units: GtC (billions tons of carbon) or GtC/year Stocks!

16 The carbon cycle is policy-relevant CO 2 accumulates in the atmosphere as long as human emissions are larger than the natural absorpdon capacity Historical emissions from developed countries therefore maher for a long Dme As warming is funcdon of cumulated emissions, the carbon «space» is narrowing fast (to stay under 1.5 or 2 C warming)

17 IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM

18 RCP Scenarios: Atmospheric CO2 concentration! Three stabilisation scenarios: RCP 2.6 to 6 One Business-as-usual scenario: RCP 8.5 AR5, chapter 12. WGI- Adopted version / subject to final copyedit!

19 Only the lowest (RCP2.6) scenario maintains the global surface temperature increase above the pre-industrial level to less than 2 C with at least 66% probability (IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.7a)

20 years ago (Last Glacial Maximum) With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in «Climat d hier à demain», CNRS éditions.

21 Today, with +4-5 C globally With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in «Climat d hier à demain», CNRS éditions.

22 Figure SPM.8a,b Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results All Figures IPCC 2013

23 Precipitation projections Annual rainfall projections

24 (Ref: ) (IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.9) Sea level due to continue to increase

25 Effects on Nile Delta, where more than 10 million people live less than 1 m above sea level (Time 2001)

26 PB=#)$2'#+%'#"+%#G<'&;G%+I#<'!!! Tropics!to!the!poles On!all!continents!and!in!the!ocean Affecting!rich!and!poor!countries (but the poor are more vulnerable everywhere) AR5 WGII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

27 Potential Impacts of Climate Change "##$!%&$!'%()*!+,#*(%-)+!.&/*)%+)$!$3+04%/)5)&(! #6!0)#04)!.&/*)%+)$!0#1)*(2! 7#%+(%4!8##$3&-! AR5 WGII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

28 Q*23'R'E#S#+G'T'U&";%+#9*"*$<'T'VT=:2&+%' ',W#$+*;#'X::G'?*)DB0'!T'T+*#*'<'X:91'-%1,#Y'R+23&44/:910%1,#Y67*84+"%%:71,$<01#%:,14Y93Z,A0[7,AU3+:."3$[S\]C#A8Y.%V'

29 ADAPTATION IS ALREADY OCCURRING

30 Flood risk adaptation in Bangladesh (example): cyclone shelters, awareness raising, forecasting and warning Sources: IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events ) and IPCC AR5, H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p "#$%$&!'(!)#$(*%+,!-.$*+/0+(12,!3+4!5($**!67898:;!+<2.=2%>$,!$?!%#+!! 5$11=,>%@!A2*+4!'>*2*%+(!B(+"2(+4,+**!B($C(211+!(=,!D@!%#+!3+4!5($**!>,9EEFG7887!

31 Regional key risks and risk reduction through adaptation 9%()*! "##$!!+)/:*3(2! ;3+)%+)+! IPCC, AR5, SPM, Figure SPM.8

32 RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS

33 H3I;!J0KK;!A$L!MBNO9!P>C=(+!9!!

34

35 IPCC 2013 Fig. SPM.10 Cumulative emissions of CO 2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.

36 IPCC 2013 Fig. SPM.10 Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

37 The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of the carbon budget compatible with a 2 C goal is already used NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2 C Total Carbon Budget: 2900 GtCO 2 Amount Used : 1900 GtCO 2 Amount Remaining: 1000 GtCO 2 NB: Emissions in 2011: 38 GtCO2/yr AR5 WGI SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

38 Y$#9*"*S#D:;':F'#$B:2=8%+*)'):;)%;$+#D:;2'+%Z&*+%2'B:?*;C'#I#<'F+:B'$8%' 9#2%"*;%'['+%C#+G"%22':F'$8%'B*DC#D:;'C:#"M' ^B_P' `19$.'*,'a:="%$'b6U' AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

39 Can temperature rise still be kept below 1.5 or 2 C (over the 21 st century) compared to pre-industrial?! Many scenario studies confirm that it is technically and economically feasible to keep the warming below 2 C, with more than 66% probability ( likely chance ). This would imply limiting atmospheric concentrations to 450 ppm CO 2 -eq by 2100.! Such scenarios for an above 66% chance of staying below 2 C imply reducing by 40 to 70% global GHG emissions compared to 2010 by mid-century, and reach zero or negative emissions by c*%0:,='d%*"3'kkk'7*,#%:z"e*,'#*'#+$' KTPP'a:f+'!99$998$,#'L$3*%#'

40 Can temperature rise still be kept below 1.5 or 2 C (over the 21 st century) compared to pre-industrial?! These scenarios are characterized by rapid improvements of energy efficiency and a near quadrupling of the share of low-carbon energy supply (renewables, nuclear, fossil and bioenergy with CCS), so that it reaches 60% by 2050.! Keeping global temperature increase below 1.5 C would require even lower atmospheric concentrations (<430 ppm CO 2 eq) to have a little more than 50% chance. There are not many scenario studies available that can deliver such results, requiring even faster reductions in the medium term, indicating how difficult this is. c*%0:,='d%*"3'kkk'7*,#%:z"e*,'#*'#+$' KTPP'a:f+'!99$998$,#'L$3*%#'

41 Mitigation Measures More efficient use of energy Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy - Many of these technologies exist today - But worldwide investment in research in support of GHG mitigation is small Improved carbon sinks - Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests - Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

42 Y&92$#;D#"'+%G&)D:;2'*;'%B*22*:;2'+%Z&*+%'2*C;*\)#;$' )8#;C%2'*;'*;?%2$B%;$'=#H%+;2'#;G'#==+:=+*#$%'=:"*)*%2M' `19$.'*,'a:="%$'WTN6\' ]4' c*%0:,='d%*"3'kkk'7*,#%:z"e*,'#*'#+$' KTPP'a:f+'!99$998$,#'L$3*%#'

43 Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns e.g., from 2010 to 2029, in billions US dollars/year: (mean numbers rounded, IPCC AR5 WGIII Fig SPM 9 for ppm CO 2eq ) energy efficiency: +330 renewables: + 90 power plants w/ CCS: + 40 nuclear: + 40 power plants w/o CCS: - 60 fossil fuel extraction: - 120

44 ^%"#<*;C'#GG*D:;#"'B*DC#D:;' $:'4565'I*""'2&92$#;D#""<' *;)+%#2%'$8%')8#""%;C%2' #22:)*#$%G'I*$8'"*B*D;C' I#+B*;C':?%+'$8%'4-2$')%;$&+<' *;G&2$+*#"'"%?%"2M''' c*%0:,='d%*"3'kkk'7*,#%:z"e*,'#*'#+$' KTPP'a:f+'!99$998$,#'L$3*%#'

45 The Choices Humanity Makes Will Create Different Outcomes (and affect prospects for effective adaptation) With substantial mitigation (RCP2.6) Without additional mitigation (RCP8.5) Change in average surface temperature ( to ) AR5 WGI SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

46 The Hidden IPCC Message: If it s possible and not enough happens, what is lacking? Political will, at the appropriate scale

47 Isaac Cordal

48 - COP21 Plan

49 ].'

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53 Paris Agreement Objectives! Q!!%e7/$'?&'!! RiV'#*'9#%$,=#+$,'#+$'=/*Z1/'%$93*,9$'#*'#+$'#+%$1#'*S'7/:81#$' 7+1,=$g':,'#+$'7*,#$]#'*S'9"9#1:,1Z/$'.$;$/*38$,#'1,.'$h*%#9' #*'$%1.:71#$'3*;$%#>g':,7/".:,='Z>&'!!j*/.:,='#+$':,7%$19$':,'#+$'=/*Z1/'1;$%1=$'#$83$%1#"%$'#*' :,."9#%:1/'/$;$/9g'%$7*=,:Y:,='#+1#'#+:9'5*"/.'9:=,:k71,#/>' %$."7$'#+$'%:909'1,.':8317#9'*S'7/:81#$'7+1,=$l''!!'P;)+%#2*;C'$8%'#9*"*$<'$:'#G#=$'RiV'1,.'S*9#$%'7/:81#$' %$9:/:$,7$'1,.'/*5'=%$$,+*"9$'=19'$8:99:*,9'.$;$/*38$,#g':,' 1'81,,$%'#+1#'.*$9',*#'#+%$1#$,'S**.'3%*."7e*,l''!!N10:,='\;#;)%'X:I2'):;2*2$%;$'5:#+'1'31#+51>'#*51%.9'/*5' =%$$,+*"9$'=19'$8:99:*,9'1,.'7/:81#$<%$9:/:$,#'.$;$/*38$,#'

54 Paris Agreement: All Parties to Act! Q!!%e7/$'B&'!!!9',1e*,1//>'.$#$%8:,$.'7*,#%:Z"e*,9'#*'#+$'=/*Z1/'%$93*,9$'#*' 7/:81#$'7+1,=$g'#""'!#+D%2'1%$'#*'",.$%#10$'1,.'7*88",:71#$' 18Z:e*"9'$h*%#9'RiV'5:#+'#+$';:$5'#*'17+:$;:,='#+$'3"%3*9$'*S' #+:9'!=%$$8$,#'19'9$#'*"#':,'!%e7/$'?6'' O+$'$h*%#9'*S'1//'T1%e$9'5://'%$3%$9$,#'#'=+:C+%22*:;':?%+'DB%g' 5+:/$'%$7*=,:Y:,='#+$';%%G'$:'2&==:+$'G%?%":=*;C'):&;$+<' T1%e$9'S*%'#+$'$h$7e;$':83/$8$,#1e*,'*S'#+:9'!=%$$8$,#6''

55 Paris Agreement: Peak and Reduce, Balance Sinks and Sources! Q!!%e7/$'[&'!! A6'RiV'T1%e$9'1:8'#*'%$17+'C":9#"'=%#3*;C'*S'=%$$,+*"9$'=19' $8:99:*,9'#2'2::;'#2'=:22*9"%g'%$7*=,:Y:,='#+1#'=%#3*;C'I*""' $#3%'":;C%+'F:+'G%?%":=*;C'):&;$+<'!#+D%2g''!! 1,.'#*'",.$%#10$'+#=*G'+%G&)D:;2'$8%+%#c%+'*;'#)):+G#;)%' I*$8'9%2$'#?#*"#9"%'2)*%;)%g'!! 9*'19'#*'17+:$;$'1'9#"#;)%'9%$I%%;'#;$8+:=:C%;*)'%B*22*:;2' 9<'2:&+)%2'#;G'+%B:?#"2'9<'2*;32':F'C+%%;8:&2%'C#2%2'*;'$8%' 2%):;G'8#"F':F'$8*2')%;$&+<g'*,'#+$'Z19:9'*S'$m":#>g'1,.':,'#+$' 7*,#$]#'*S'9"9#1:,1Z/$'.$;$/*38$,#'1,.'$h*%#9'#*'$%1.:71#$'3*;$%#>'!! B6'V#)8'!#+$<d2'2&))%22*?%';#D:;#""<'G%$%+B*;%G'):;$+*9&D:;' I*""'+%=+%2%;$'#'=+:C+%22*:;RiV'

56 Paris Agreement: Differentiation of Efforts! Q!!%e7/$'['R7*,#6V&'!! [6'n$;$/*3$.'7*",#%>'T1%e$9'9+*"/.'7*,e,"$'#10:,='#+$'/$1.'Z>' ",.$%#10:,='$7*,*8><5:.$'1Z9*/"#$'$8:99:*,'%$."7e*,'#1%=$#96''!! n$;$/*3:,='7*",#%>'t1%e$9'9+*"/.'7*,e,"$'$,+1,7:,='#+$:%' 8:e=1e*,'$h*%#9g'1,.'1%$'$,7*"%1=$.'#*'8*;$'*;$%'e8$' #*51%.9'$7*,*8><5:.$'$8:99:*,'%$."7e*,'*%'/:8:#1e*,'#1%=$#9' :,'#+$'/:=+#'*S'.:h$%$,#',1e*,1/'7:%7"89#1,7$96''!! V#)8'!#+$<'28#""'):BB&;*)#$%'#';#D:;#""<'G%$%+B*;%G' ):;$+*9&D:;'%?%+<'\?%'<%#+2'!! T1%e$9'9+1//'#10$':,#*'7*,9:.$%1e*,':,'#+$':83/$8$,#1e*,'*S' #+:9'!=%$$8$,#'#+$'7*,7$%,9'*S'T1%e$9'5:#+'$7*,*8:$9'8*9#' 1h$7#$.'Z>'#+$':8317#9'*S'%$93*,9$'8$19"%$9g'31%e7"/1%/>'.$;$/*3:,='7*",#%>'T1%e$96''

57 e;*?%+2#"' Nh' W*"%7$'&'c*%/.'L$9*"%7$9'K,9e#"#$'

58 2020" 2025" 2030" Intended Nationally Determined Contributions! Q! oi'$8:99:*,9'=13' %$3*%#' Q! A?'d#PM?$m':S' 7*,.:e*,9'9$#'Z>' 9*8$'7*",#%:$9'1%$' 8$#g'!! A['d#PM?$m' 5:#+*"#'#+*9$' 7*,.:e*,1/' 7*,#%:Z"e*,9' (INDCs)

59 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions! (INDCs) IPCC Baselines C Current Policy C Pledges / INDCs ( C - median) Below 2 C (66% chances Below 1.5 C (50% chances 59

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61 /-'

62 - What s next? Plan

63 !"#$%&'()*'+,-%./0#1'2,'3&/##'4%'+5067.#' /6'

64 RN6'!%:19'P1r$#$g'PMT?AV' /]'

65 I am trying to be coherent

66 I am trying to be coherent

67 And the IPCC?!! AR6 to be ready in 2020 to 2022!! Many Special Reports to prioritize from, including one requested by COP21 on the 1.5 C pathways!! IPCC Plenary to decide in April 2016!! Scoping process will likely start in autumn!! Call for author nominations beginning 2017? bu'

68 68! K7$'4'*7$1,9'Rs'8*",#1:,9DV&'b'7*",#%:$9'4'A'*Z9' Q! W7$,1%:*9'4'A6C_P'&''?'7*",#%:$9'4'oIaPPP'4'A'$]3$%#' 8$$e,='4'A'*Z9' Q! n%*"=+#'4'.$9$%ek71e*,'&'?'7*",#%:$9'4'a'*z9' Q! a**.'4'!=%:7"/#"%$'&'a'7*",#%>'4'a'$]3$%#'8$$e,='4'a'*z9's' og'r!amxo'v' Q! P*9#'H'$7*,*8:79&'?'7*",#%:$9'' Q!!.13#1e*,&'A'7*",#%>'4'oIGT' Q! P*88",:71e,='7/:81#$'7+1,=$':,S*%81e*,&'A'$]3$%#' 8$$e,='' Q! M#+$%9i'

69 Q! M%:=:,'*S'#+$'%$m"$9#&'KTPPt9'*5,':,:e1e;$':9'1'0$>'$/$8$,#' :,'S*%8"/1e,='1,.'7+**9:,='W3$7:1/'L$3*%#9l'oIaPPP'+19' 3%:*%:#>'*;$%'*#+$%'P*,;$,e*,9'1,.'*%=1,:91e*,9l' Q! L$/$;1,7$'*S'#+$'9"Zu$7#'S*%'3*/:7>'7*,9:.$%1e*,9l' Q! L$/$;1,7$'#*'",.$%9#1,.:,='*S'7/:81#$'7+1,=$l' Q! G,*"=+':,S*%81e*,':9'1;1:/1Z/$'#*'3%*;:.$'1,'1"#+*%:#1e;$' 97:$,ek74#$7+,:71/'199$998$,#'*,'#+$'#*3:7g'1,.',*#' 1/%$1.>'1;1:/1Z/$'$/9$5+$%$l' Q! K99"$'8$%:#9'$]3/:7:#'7*,9:.$%1e*,'*"#9:.$'#+$'S%18$5*%0' *S'!99$998$,#'L$3*%#l' Q! K99"$'%$m":%$9':,3"#'S%*8'8*%$'#+1,'*,$'c*%0:,='d%*"3'*S' #+$'KTPP6' Source : IPCC decision framework for SR ( ), last updated in 2008 (confirmed for AR6 at P41) 69

70 7#3%'8:B%'B%22#C%2' Q! 78%'2)*%;)%'*2')"%#+%+'$8#;'%?%+a'&+C%;$'#)D:;'*2' Q! 1';%I'B:B%;$&B'*2'$8%+%' Q! =:"*)<>+%"%?#;$'

71 '!&9"*m')8%S'^%'n:%)3' 2&=m+*%&+J' :)$:9+%'45-N' ' Sujets couverts: La science du climat depuis la découverte de l effet de serre, le rôle du GIEC, les risques pour les écosystèmes et l humanité, les semeurs de confusion, les négociations climatiques, que faire?

72 Useful links:!! : IPCC (reports and videos)!! : my slides and other documents!! excellent responses to contrarians arguments!! On Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanyp@climate.be)