National Grid of New York Niagara Mohawk, Brooklyn Union Gas (KEDNY), Keyspan Long Island (KEDLI)

Transcription

1 National Grid of New York Niagara Mohawk, Brooklyn Union Gas (KEDNY), Keyspan Long Island (KEDLI) EnergyWise and Residential Products Programs: Impact Evaluation Summary Prepared by: DNV KEMA, February 2015 (Full Report dated February 2015) PROGRAM SUMMARY This study evaluated two different programs; the EnergyWise Program and the Residential Energy Star Gas and Electric Products and Recycling Program. The EnergyWise Program operates in the Niagara Mohawk service territory. This program targets multifamily buildings with five to fifty dwellings and is delivered by two primary vendors that work in partnership. Program participants are provided comprehensive energy use assessments and financial incentives for actions that will improve the electric energy efficiency of multifamily buildings. The primary measures in this program are lighting (CFL) and domestic hot water (DHW). The Residential Energy Star Gas and Electric Products and Recycling Programs operate in the Niagara Mohawk service territory and offer financial incentives for the installation of efficient equipment through two primary vendors, one who oversees refrigerator recycling and one who provides rebate processing services. Since the refrigeration recycling program component was recently evaluated, this study focused primarily on thermostats and domestic hot water flow limiting devices. The study also included the EnergyStar Gas Products Program for Brooklyn Union Gas and KeySpan East territories with a majority of savings primarily from thermostats. EVALUATION OBJECTIVE AND KEY FINDINGS The main objectives of this evaluation included: a) quantifying and/or providing further documentation to support the savings claims associated with significant program measures and to provide recommendations on those measures for forward looking adjustments to the Technical Manual to the extent possible, and b) to estimate hours of lighting use by room type as part of the regional hours of use (HOU) study performed in New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. In the table below, we present a gross kwh realization rate at the CFL unit level based on the hours of use, installed average CFL wattage, and a delta watt factor, based upon self-reported baseline conditions. Using those inputs, we calculate an ex post tracked per CFL unit annual kwh savings estimate of 33.0 kwh (+/- 2.3% at the 90% confidence interval) with an associated gross realization rate of 66.5%. We did not address net to gross in this study and as such have reflected the current assumption in the Technical Manual in this table (0.90). The kw realization rate is calculated using the installed average CFL wattage and hours of use and the delta watt factor.

2 Table 1. EnergyWise CFL Net Program Impact Parameter Electric Energy (kwh/yr/unit) Electric Demand (W/unit) Ex Ante Tracked Savings 49.6* 42.5* Ex Post Tracked Savings Evaluation Realization Rate (RR) 66.5% 92.5% Evaluation Net-to-Gross Ratio (NTG) Ex Post Net Impact Realization Rate (RR) 59.9% 83.2% *Weighted average kwh calculated based upon the watts of program installed CFLs from the on-site sample, the current TM CFL to baseline factor (2.53) and the current TM CFL Hours of Use estimate (3.2 hours/day). Weighted average kw calculated based upon the watts of program installed CFLs from the on-site sample and the current TM CFL to baseline factor (2.53). The table below presents the evaluation savings input results with a comparison to those in the Technical Manual. We provide the precision around the evaluation result at the 90% confidence interval. Some entries have zero precision because the data collected as part of the study was consistently the same value. It is also important to note that the in-service rate evaluation results reflect measure persistence after two years of installation. Input TM Assumption Evaluation Result Precision at 90% CI Lighting In-Service Rate (n=518) 100% 86.7% ±2.8% Delta Watts Ratio (n=449) ±1.6% Delta Watts Factor (n=449) ±2.3% Annual Hours of Use (n=4,642) 1, ±3.7% Daily Hours of Use (n=4,642) ±3.7% Thermostat In-Service Rate (n=32) 100% 100.0% ±0.0% Showerheads In-Service Rate (n=51) 100% 80.4% ±7.1% Installed flow rate (gpm) (n=41) ±0.0% Showers/Day (n=60) ±12.0% Aerators In-Service Rate (n=51) 100% 90.4% ±7.1% Installed flow rate (gpm) (n=103) ±0.0% DHW Electric DHW Efficiency (n=19) ±0.0% Gas DHW Efficiency (n=5) ±1.6% In-Service Rate (n=18) 100% 100% ±0.0% In-Service Rate (n=5) 100% 100% ±0.0% Although CFL saturation is not a savings input, it was calculated as part of this study. The CFL lighting saturation in the 60 participating visited homes before and after they participated in the program increased from 20.7% to 59.9%. 2

3 DETAILED FINDINGS: REALIZATION RATE AND NET-TO-GROSS Realization Rate: The gross CFL lighting unit realization rate of 66.5% was obtained by dividing the calculated per unit evaluated kwh savings estimate of 33.0 kwh by the 49.6 kwh calculated with the application of the Technical Manual inputs. The relative precision of the evaluated per unit kwh savings value is +/-1.4% at the 90% confidence level. Net-to-Gross: The study did not specifically address free-ridership and spillover so the generic 90% form the Tech Manual is used in this summary. EVALUATION METHODS AND SAMPLING There were three primary activities undertaken as part of this study. The bullets below provide a brief description of each. On-site assessments at the homes of 60 EnergyWise program participants statistically selected based upon number of measures installed. On-site activities included the installation of 320 lighting loggers, to estimate hours of lighting use by room type as part of 4,642 loggers installed through the regional hours of use (HOU) study and to gather information on thermostats, DHW measures and installed lighting, to provide forward looking adjustments to the Technical Manual to the extent possible. A review of secondary research on programmable thermostats to assist National Grid in ensuring that the assumptions and savings that flow from the Technical Manual are consistent with the findings from other studies. Phone surveys of 25 Energy Star Gas Products and Recycling Program participants who received thermostats through the program to confirm installation and assess thermostat set-points both prior to and after the installation of the new unit. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROGRAM ADMINISTRATOR (PA) RESPONSES Specific Recommendation 1: The table below presents the evaluation results and TM assumptions along with a field indicating those items where we recommend consideration of a change. It is important to note that we are not recommending changes to how National Grid is calculating savings, but rather the inputs that are used. We also note that the lighting changes suggested are based on samples drawn from EnergyWise participants and as such might not be appropriate for broader application or use.

4 Input TM Assumption Evaluation Result Recommended Change Lighting In-Service Rate (n=518) 100% 86.7% No Delta Watts Ratio (n=449) Yes Delta Watts Factor (n=449) Yes Annual Hours of Use (n=4,642) 1, Yes Daily Hours of Use (n=4,642) Yes Thermostat In-Service Rate (n=32) 100% 100.0% No Showerheads In-Service Rate (n=51) 100% 80.4% No Installed flow rate (gpm) (n=41) No Showers/Day (n=60) No Aerators In-Service Rate (n=51) 100% 90.4% No Installed flow rate (gpm) (n=103) No DHW Electric DHW Efficiency (n=19) No Gas DHW Efficiency (n=5) No In-Service Rate (n=18) 100% 100% No In-Service Rate (n=5) 100% 100% No PA Response to Specific Recommendation 1: This will be discussed with the E2 Working Group and the Tech Manual Subcommittee. The table above incorporates the final lighting values from the regional HOU study. Specific Recommendation 2: The 3 degree assumption driving the cooling ESF in the Technical Manual may be overstated. Our findings suggest that the use of a more moderate 2 degree setback in the modeling performed to support the cooling ESF would be more reasonable. PA Response to Specific Recommendation 2: This will be discussed with the E2 Working Group and the Tech Manual Subcommittee. Specific Recommendation 3: Based on the findings of this study, we recommend that National Grid use the existing gallons per minute (gpm) of showerheads in their calculation of retrofit savings. PA Response to Specific Recommendation 3: National Grid has asked the Implementation Contractor ( IC ) to start collecting the precondition measure information as an initial step in addressing this recommendation. The company anticipates getting periodic updates from the IC with measure information to assess if the flow rate of existing equipment is an issue. At this time, the Company does not plan to modify its tracking system. Modifying the existing tracking system based on results from a single study and in isolation of other studies and the Tech Manual Subcommittee may not be the most prudent use of rate payer funds at this time. 4

5 General Recommendation 1: That National Grid continue the spirit of gathering information available as part of future residential studies to assess baseline or installed conditions for use in building evidence and support for confirmation or disconfirmation of the technical manual inputs and assumptions. PA Response to General Recommendation 1: National Grid has asked the Implementation Contractor ( IC ) to start collecting the precondition measure information as a initial step in addressing this recommendation. The company anticipates getting periodic updates from the IC with measure information to assess if the wattage of the existing lamps is an issue. Modification to the existing National Grid tracking system to capture precondition measure information is currently estimated at approximately $10,000 per measure. Modifying the existing tracking system based on results from a single study and in isolation of other studies and the Tech Manual Subcommittee may not be the most prudent use of rate payer funds at this time. National Grid will continue to assess all opportunities to gather information as part of future residential studies that might be used to inform or verify TM baseline assumptions