How to Do Impact Evaluation for Rural Electrification: The Case of Lao PDR Rural Electrification Phase I Project. Voravate Tig Tuntivate

Transcription

1 How to Do Impact Evaluation for Rural Electrification: The Case of Lao PDR Rural Electrification Phase I Project Voravate Tig Tuntivate 1

2 Outline of the Presentation Rural Electrification Projects in Lao PDR. How Do We Measure the Benefits? What data do we need? How do we collect these data? How do we operationalize these data? Lower Cost and Higher Quality of Lighting. Access to News, Information, and Entertainment at Lower Costs. Education. Household Appliances. Perceived Benefits. 2

3 Study Design to Measure Benefits and Prepared Rural Electrification Phase 1 Project Conducted household survey: (1) in the areas proposed for REP I Project to establish baseline data of the project and use the sampled households as a control group, and (2) in the areas previously electrified under the World Bank financed projects and used the sampled households as the experimental group. Household Survey was carried out in March-April Sample size for: (1) baseline data/control group is 915 households, (2) experimental group is 1,043 households. Data and analysis from the survey were used to measure potential benefits of the project, prepare the project and inputs for Project Appraisal Document for REP I Project. 3

4 Household Benefits from Rural Electrification How do we measure the benefits? 1. What data do we need? 2. How do we collect these data? 3. How do we operationalize these data? 4. Example from Lao PDR 4

5 Benefits On Lower Cost and Higher Quality of Lighting 5

6 Household Level Data to be Collected from Household Survey Non-Electrified Household 1.Types and number of nonelectric lighting appliances household are using (for example, candle, wick Lamp, hurricane lantern, pressurized kerosene lamp. 2.Number of hours & minutes each lamp is used during the last 24 hours. 3.Quantity of fuels used for lighting. 4.Total spending for lighting fuel. Electrified Household 1. Types, number and wattage of electric lighting appliances household are using (for example, incandescent lamp, fluorescent tube, and compact fluorescent. 2. Number of hours & minutes each lighting is used during the last 24 hours. 3. Total kwh used last month. 4. Total spending for electricity last month. 6

7 How to Collect these Data 1. Household survey using pre-designed questionnaire form. 2. Enumerators/field interviewers must be able to identify and distinguish types of lamp lighting and type of electric lighting and the wattage used in the surveyed area. 7

8 Example of Questionnaire Format (Non-Electric Lamp Lighting) Type of Non- Electric Lamp Lighting Number Owned Total Hours used during the past 24 hours of all lamps Wick Lamp 1 4 Hurricane Lantern 1 2 Pressurized kerosene lamp 0 Answer not apply 8

9 Example of Questionnaire Format (Electric Lighting) Type of Electric Lighting Appliance Number Owned Total Hours used during the past 24 hours of all lamps 5 watts Incandescent Lamp 0 Answer not apply 25 watts Incandescent Lamp 0 Answer not apply 60 watts Incandescent Lamp watts Fluorescent Tube (straight) 0 Answer not apply 20 watts Fluorescent Tube (straight) = 7 40 watts Fluorescent Tube (straight) 0 Answer not apply 9

10 We Use the Data To Calculate and Establish 1. Total kilo-lumen hours the household received during the past 24 hours and during the 30 days period. 2. Price and quantity of light (in kilo-lumen hours) from non-electric lighting (kerosene lamp and candle) and electric lighting. 3. Total costs of lighting. 10

11 Example of the Calculation for Kilo-Lumen Hours for Household ID: 1001 Type of Lamp Hours used during past 24 hours Assumption for lamp lighting: Lumen Flux Kilolumen hours past 30 days One Wick lamps One Hurricane lamp All Lamps

12 Example of the Calculation for Type of Lamp Kilo-Lumen Hours for Household ID: 2010 Hours used during past 24 hours Assumption for lamp lighting: Lumen Flux Kilolumen hours past 30 days 60 watts incandescent lamp watts fluorescent tube (straight) All Lamps

13 Kilo-Lumen Hours from Kerosene Lamp and Kilo-lumen hours from kerosene lamp lighting and household spending on kerosene for lighting are used to calculate price per kilo-lumen hours. Electric Light Kilo-lumen hours from electric lamp lighting and household spending on electricity for lighting are used to calculate price per kilo-lumen hours. 13

14 Benefits On Access to News, Information and Entertainment at Lower Costs 14

15 Types of Data to be Collected and How to Use the Data Data from Non-Electrified and Electrified Household Survey 1. B&W and Color Television Ownership and Viewing. 2. Screen size or The Wattage Rating of Television. 3. Number of Hours the Household Members Watching Television During the Past 24 Hours. Non-Electrified Household Uses Car Battery to Supply Electricity for B&W Television or Watch TV at the Neighbor s home or Community Center. How to Operationalize the Data 1. Total Viewing Hours 2. Cost per Viewing Hour of Television Using Car Battery. 3. Calculate Cost per Viewing Hour of Television Using Grid Electricity. 4. Compare Cost per Viewing Hour. 5. Quantify Exposure to News, Information, and Entertainment in Terms of Total Viewing Hours Between Electrified and Non-Electrified Households. 15

16 Benefits On Time Use: Increasing Useful and/or Productive Activities, and Access to Entertainment of Household Members 16

17 Time Use Survey Allows Us to Quantify Useful and/or Productive Activities, and Access to Entertainment of Household Members 1. Number of Hours Household Members Spend on Productive Activities. 2. Compare Benefits Between Men and Women. 3. Number of Hours Children Study, read, and/or Doing Homework at Night. 17

18 Benefits on Education 18

19 Types of Data to be Collected and How to Use the Data 1. Time Use Survey to Collect Number of Hours School Age Children Read/Study/Doing Homework in the Evening. 2. School Age Children Enrolling in School (collect from household member roaster). 1. Descriptive. 2. Causal Modeling for Enrolling in School 19

20 Benefits On Uses of Electric Appliances 20

21 We Use the Home Appliances Ownership As a Proxy Measure for Livelihood Improvement Electric appliances such as, rice cooker, fan, iron, refrigerator, and etc. 21

22 Household Perception on The Benefits of Electricity 22

23 Attitude questions aimed to measure household s perception on the benefits of electricity. For example, we ask respondent to strong agree, agree, neutral, disagree, and strongly disagree or agree and disagree with specific statement such as, With electricity we feel more secure at night Life is more difficult before electrification Electricity improve living standard of the poor Electricity is important for children education 23

24 Other Uses and What We Learn From Baseline Data Connection Rates in Electrified Village and Reasons for Non-Connection. Ability to Pay for Electricity Connection and Monthly Bill. Distribution of Electricity Consumption by Village. Tariff and Pricing Policy. Efficient Lighting Program. 24