Orange County Voters and Conservation

Transcription

1 Orange County Voters June Santa Monica, CA Oakland, CA Madison, WI Mexico City Methodology 600 interviews with registered voters likely to cast ballots in November 2006 Interviews conducted May 31 June 2, 2005 Margin of sampling error of +/- 4.0% 1

2 Most voters see a need for more conservation in the County. Protecting land around rivers, creeks, streams and wetlands will help to ensure clean beaches in Orange County Str. Agr. S.W. Agr. S.W./Str. Disagr. DK/NA 48% 38% 12% 2% Having open space nearby increases property values in Orange County 4 38% 10% Many of Orange County s problems, such as traffic, air and water pollution, and high housing costs, are a direct result of the County s rate of growth and development 45% 34% 18% 3 % Orange County s open space and natural beauty have great economic benefits for the county 45% 33% 1 5% Protecting land around rivers, creeks, streams and wetlands will help to ensure a supply of clean water for Orange County cities 35% 34% 23% 8% 6. I m going to read you a list of statements about life in Orange County. Please tell me if you generally agree or disagree. Split Sample State Ballot Measure Language Tested THE CALIFORNIA CLEAN WATER, CLEAN AIR, SAFE NEIGHBORHOOD PARKS, AND COASTAL PROTECTION ACT OF It would read as follows: To protect rivers, lakes, and streams to improve water quality and ensure clean drinking water; to protect beaches and coastal areas threatened by pollution; to improve air quality; to preserve open space and farmland threatened by unplanned development; to protect wildlife habitat; to restore historical and cultural resources; to repair and improve the safety of state and neighborhood parks; the state shall issue bonds totaling three billion dollars paid from existing funds. This program is subject to an annual independent audit. 4. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this ballot measure? 2

3 A clear majority of voters back the state bond measure. Definitely Yes Probably Yes Undecided, Lean Yes 3 YES 65% Undecided, Lean No Probably No Definitely No 4% 1 NO 2 Undecided 8% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 4. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this ballot measure? Local Conservation Funding Concept Tested Suppose that there were a measure on an Orange County ballot which proposed expanded programs to protect rivers, streams, creeks and drinking water quality; clean up and prevent toxic contamination on local beaches; preserve natural areas and open space; improve and expand parks and recreational areas; and protect fish and wildlife, all funded by a small increase in County taxes. 3. In general, does this ballot measure sound like something you would support or oppose? 3

4 Most voters would be willing to pay higher taxes to fund conservation. Strongly support Somewhat support 2 43% SUPPORT 6 Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose 13% OPPOSE DK/NA 0% 40% 60% 3. In general, does this ballot measure sound like something you would support or oppose? Demographics: GENDER AND PARTY REGISTRATION 100% Gender Total Support Total Oppose Undecided 8 Party Registration 80% 6 73% % 40% 25% 8% 5% 31% 10% 1 12% 0% % of Men Women Democrat Republican Independent Sample (48%) (52%) (31%) (54%) (15%) 3. In general, does this ballot measure sound like something you would support or oppose? 4

5 100% Demographics: AGE AND OWN/RENT Total Support Total Oppose Undecided Age Own/Rent 80% 6 71% 75% 70% 63% 60% 40% % 1 8% 21% 32% 5% 0% % of Sample Own Rent (3) (55%) (25%) (85%) (14%) 3. In general, does this ballot measure sound like something you would support or oppose? 100% Demographics: ETHNICITY Total Support Total Oppose Undecided 80% 6 73% 70% 60% 40% 23% 4% 8% 0% % of White Latino Non-White Sample (7) (10%) (21%) 3. In general, does this ballot measure sound like something you would support or oppose? 5

6 100% Demographics: SUPERVISORIAL DISTRICT Total Support Total Oppose Undecided 80% 6 70% 64% 6 74% 60% 40% 1 12% 23% 12% 2 1 0% % of Sample (12%) () () (1) (2) 3. In general, does this ballot measure sound like something you would support or oppose? Strongly support Somewhat support A majority of voters support setting aside Measure M funding for conservation. 10% Set-aside 25% Set-aside 38% 38% SUPPORT SUPPORT 25% 63% 21% 5 Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose OPPOSE 31% 10% 25% OPPOSE 35% DK/NA 0% 40% 60% 0% 40% 60% 16/17*. Some people say that if the measure is renewed, most of the funding should still go to improve Orange County roads, highways, and public transportation, but that up to 10%/*25% of the money should also be used to protect beaches, water quality, open space, and natural areas in the County. In general, does this sound like something you would support or oppose? Split Sample 6

7 Most voters are willing to pay as much as $60 per year to support conservation. Very Willing S.W. Willing S.W. Unwilling Very Unwilling DK/NA 51% $60 per year 31% 8% 34% 52% $30 per year 38% 14% 2 15% 5 $15 per year 45% 14% 21% 14% 7. First, regardless of the specific way the money was raised, would you be willing to pay more in taxes to increase funding for the protection of land, air and water in Orange County? Voters are most enthusiastic about protecting water quality. Keeping rivers and beaches free of dangerous bacteria Preventing polluted runoff from contaminating rivers, harbors and beaches Ext./Very Impt. S.W. Impt. Not Impt. DK/NA 85% 82% 12% 3% 8% 8% 2% Protecting drinking water quality Keeping oceans clean 81% 74% 10% 1 3% 3% Preserving natural areas 73% 1 1% Preserving open space 71% 10. I am going to read you a list of specific projects that could be funded by this ballot measure. Please tell me how important it is to you that each project be undertaken: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important. Split Sample 7

8 Messages linked to water quality are most persuasive. Protecting and improving beaches, parks, rivers, streams, natural areas and wildlife habitat will protect Orange County s natural beauty and quality of life for future generations, so our children and grandchildren can enjoy it the same way we do. Much More Incl. 44% S.W. More Incl. 33% 7 *This measure will help prevent dangerous pollutants and bacteria from flowing into our rivers and creeks and onto our beaches. This will help reduce the risk of infectious and dangerous diseases. 4 30% 7 *Nothing is more important than having a reliable supply of clean water. This measure will help to improve water quality and prevent toxic pollution of Orange County s rivers, creeks and groundwater, which we rely on for clean drinking water % 11. I am going to read you a list of arguments in favor of the potential measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether it makes you more inclined to vote in favor of the measure. If you don t believe the statement or if it makes no difference in your opinion, please tell me that too *Split Sample Continued: Much More Incl. S.W. More Incl. We must protect Orange County s land and clean water now before they are gone forever. The longer we wait, the more irreplaceable land, water and wildlife will be destroyed and lost permanently. 44% 30% 74% Outdoor recreation is a way of life for people in Orange County. We need to act now to protect beautiful natural areas where local residents hike, bike, camp, fish, and swim. 40% 32% 72% The beauty of Orange County s coast, canyons and natural areas keeps property values high and creates jobs by bringing in tourists and new employers. By protecting natural areas, this measure will help keep our economy strong. 3 34% 71% 11. I am going to read you a list of arguments in favor of the potential measure we have been discussing. Please tell me whether it makes you more inclined to vote in favor of the measure. If you don t believe the statement or if it makes no difference in your opinion, please tell me that too. *Split Sample 8

9 Support for conservation holds up even after negative messages. Total Support Total Oppose Undecided 100% 80% 6 72% 68% 60% 40% 28% 4% 4% 0% Initial Support After Positives After Negatives Total Support 6 72% 68% Total Oppose 28% Undecided 4% 4% Believability on Conservation Issues Total Bel. Total Not Bel. NHO/No Opin. The Humane Society 71% 1 12% The Orange County Register newspaper 62% 14% Friends of Harbors, Beaches and Parks 62% 1 21% Environmental groups 60% 2 11% Conservation groups 5 1 Your local mayor 58% 21% 21% Wildlife rehabilitation centers 58% The League of Women Voters 54% 2 Your local state senator 53% 25% University scientists 53% 23% 15. I am now going to read you a list of persons and organizations that may take a position on issues related to land, air and water in Orange County. Please tell me if you would find that person or organization very believable, somewhat believable, not too believable or not believable at all on these issues. If you have never heard of the person or organization, or do not have an opinion, you can tell me that too. Split Sample 9

10 Continued: Total Bel. Total Not Bel. NHO/No Opin. The Sierra Club 50% 31% 1 The Los Angeles Times newspaper 4 38% 13% Your local county supervisor 4 2 The Audubon Society 4 31% Actor Robert Redford 4 31% 23% Your local state assembly member 45% 25% 30% Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez 44% 3 1 The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association 44% 21% 35% The Surfrider Foundation 44% 15% 41% The Orange County Business Council 43% 32% 25% 15. I am now going to read you a list of persons and organizations that may take a position on issues related to land, air and water in Orange County. Please tell me if you would find that person or organization very believable, somewhat believable, not too believable or not believable at all on these issues. If you have never heard of the person or organization, or do not have an opinion, you can tell me that too. Split Sample Los Angeles Proposition O: Storm Drains Los Angeles City Proposition O Official Ballot Label November 2004 CLEAN WATER AND OCEAN, RIVER, BEACH, BAY STORMWATER CLEANUP PROPOSITION GENERAL CITY OBLIGATION BONDS. To protect public health by cleaning up polluted storm water, keeping pollution, trash, toxic chemicals and dangerous bacteria from rivers and beaches; and preserving clean drinking water by protection groundwater quality; reducing flooding; increasing water conservation, and protecting bays, rivers and lakes from storm water contamination, shall the City incur bonded indebtedness totaling $500 million for storm water projects, with independent financial audits and citizen oversight? 10

11 Q. 5/11 Los Angeles Proposition O: Storm Drains Vote Before and After Detailed Information and Supportive Arguments After Brief Description After Detailed Information and Supportive Arguments Definitely yes Probably yes Undecided, lean yes 2 3 Total Yes 71% 4 Total Yes 78% Undecided, lean no Probably no Definitely no 4% 8% 10% Total No 3% Total No 1 DK/NA 3% Los Angeles Proposition O: Storm Drains The Positive Initial Opinion Research was Reflected in the Success of the Final Vote No Yes 11

12 Orange County Voters June Santa Monica, CA Oakland, CA Madison, WI Mexico City 12