Initial Gap Analysis: Adaptation and Planning For Change

Transcription

1 RISC Meeting Agenda Item 1.b Initial Gap Analysis: Adaptation and Planning For Change Ben Crisp, Chair NERC Planning Committee RISC Meeting October 25, 2013

2 Summary of Issue Over the next 10 years, the electric industry will face a number of significant emerging reliability issues and face a transformational change These changes affect the way the power system operates These issues all require careful consideration, preparation, and planning to avoid an adverse impact to system reliability Regional evaluations and studies provide critical insights to the industry at large 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

3 Analysis Approach Challenges and associated risks of long-term planning issues should be evaluated under three risk areas Resource and Transmission Adequacy Integration of New Technologies and Operations Long-Term Planning and System Analysis All future risks generally fall into these main risk areas Some risks do not directly impact these issues, but they may be secondary, tertiary Adaptation and Planning for Change should be aligned with LTRA Leverage PC/OC technical input to LTRA for gap analysis Utilize industry risk assessment on emerging issues as input to prioritization Further evaluation is provided in the Gap Analysis document 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

4 Risk Areas Resource and Transmission Adequacy Risks represent the projected inability to serve customer demand Resource and transmission adequacy risks impacted continuously by public and society pressure, regulatory uncertainty (e.g., market, environmental), and the uncertainty of future resources Given the large lead time for infrastructure development, these risks must be considered and planned for years in advance Integration of New Technologies and Operations Risks represent potential future operational issues that may introduce into the BPS as a result of change New resources with unique operating characteristics behave differently and have an aggregate impact to overall BPS operations The ability to withstand BPS disturbances in real-time operations is threatened Long-Term Planning and System Analysis Risks represent challenges to the approach and methods (the how ) used for longterm planning Incorrect assumptions and methods can lead to incorrect decision-making 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

5 Risks Resource and Transmission Adequacy Environmental Regulation (High) Integration of Variable Generation (High) o Utility-grade VERs and Distributed VERs Increased Dependence on Natural Gas (High) Demand-Side Management (Med) o Demand Response and Energy Efficiency Demand Forecast Uncertainty (Low) Nuclear Generation (Low) Transmission Siting/Permitting and Aging Infrastructure (Low) Threat: Increasing uncertainty in existing and future generation (availability, feasibility) due to regulatory uncertainty creates planning challenge to meet adequacy targets Timeframe: Mid-Term to Long-Term (3 to 10 years) NERC Tools Used (to be used): Reliability Assessment, technical guidance and advocacy for regulators and policy makers Lead NERC Groups\Resources: PC, Staff (RAPA, Government Relations) 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

6 Gaps in Key Risk Areas Resource and Transmission Adequacy Gaps: Medium o Regional-level planning studies that address and consider the various risks o Post-action review of specific regional resource adequacy concerns o Defining capacity: what requirements should capacity resources have (e.g., fuel) o Common approach for determining capacity contributions of variable generation o Ability to make independent assessment and engineering judgment for unknowns o Closer coordination with responsible authorities (i.e., state PUC) on adequacy challenges o Some challenges are beyond the industry s control or require significant cross-industry coordination (e.g., regulatory uncertainty, natural gas industry) o Consideration of distributed resources and demand-side resources o Better harmonization of assessment recommendations and actionable risk projects Recommendations: o Develop lessons learned/best practices and/or post-action summary for distribution to the industry o Develop Special Reliability Assessments to address the high risk issues o Advocate and educate industry, public, regulators, and policy makers o Consideration of RAS and IVGTF recommendations in LTRA and special assessments 6 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

7 Risks Integration of New Technologies and Operations Integration of Variable Generation (High) o Utility-grade VERs and Distributed VERs Increased Dependence on Natural Gas (High) Demand Response (Med) Smart Grid (Low) Threat: The integration of new technologies on the BPS changes fundamental system behaviors and introduces new operational risks due to unknown/unplanned resource performance and/or availability. Theses threats can decrease the system s resilience and capability to withstand BPS disturbances. Timeframe: Short-Term to Long-Term (1 to 10 years) NERC Tools Used (to be used): Reliability Assessment, Technical Guidance, Reliability Standards, Alerts Lead NERC Groups\Resources: PC (support from OC), Staff (RAPA, Government Relations) 7 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

8 Gaps in Key Risk Areas Integration of New Technologies and Operations Gaps: Medium o Regional-level planning studies that address and consider the various risks o Incorporating natural gas pipeline and/or supply risks into reliability analysis (e.g., TPL contingency analysis and power flow and stability) o Reliability Standards gap for asynchronous and variable generation o Distribution or demand-side challenges difficult to manage given NERC authority o Demand response operators (i.e., third-party aggregators not covered under NERC registration) o Ability to make independent assessment and engineering judgment for unknowns o Some challenges are beyond the industry s control or require significant cross-industry coordination (e.g., regulatory uncertainty, natural gas industry) o Better harmonization of assessment recommendations and actionable risk projects o Unknown impact of smart devices and systems (e.g., automatic control, system optimization) Recommendations: o Enhance operator training and operational planning to ensure flexibility is planned and available o Develop Special Reliability Assessments to address the high risk issues o Advocate and educate industry, public, regulators, and policy makers o Consideration of RAS and IVGTF recommendations in LTRA and special assessments 8 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

9 Risks Long-Term Planning and System Analysis Change in Resource Mix and Operational Characteristics (High) Change in System Behavior and Composition of System Load (High) Region/Interconnection-wide Planning and Modeling (Med) Threat: Long-term planning and system analysis need to identify and reflect representative risks to the BPS. Given a large change in a given resource mix, system behavior (i.e., generation characteristics, frequency response, inertia requirements) will likely change. Robust and risk-oriented planning and modeling approaches will be needed to address transmission and operating reliability. Incorrect assumptions and methods can lead to incorrect decision-making for system reinforcement, resources, transmission, flexibility, and operational needs. Timeframe: Short-Term to Long-Term (1 to 10 years) NERC Tools Used (to be used): Reliability Assessment, Technical Guidance, Reliability Standards, Alerts Lead NERC Groups\Resources: PC (support from OC), Staff (RAPA, Government Relations) 9 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

10 Gaps in Key Risk Areas: Long-Term Planning and System Analysis Gaps: Medium-High o Regional-level planning studies that address and consider the various risks o Identification and determination of frequency responsive resources o Incorporating natural gas pipeline and/or supply risks into reliability analysis (e.g., TPL contingency analysis and power flow and stability) o Reliability Standards gap for asynchronous and variable generation; standard models needed o Distribution or demand-side challenges difficult to manage (data and information on distributed/behind-the-meter generation often unknown to planners/operators) o Ability to make independent assessment and engineering judgment for unknowns o Better harmonization of assessment recommendations and actionable risk projects o Unknown impact of smart devices and systems (e.g., automatic control, system optimization), electronically coupled loads, and load composition o Unknown FIDVR concerns may be embedded risk that has not been fully analyzed Recommendations: o Long-term studies need to determine the amount of flexibility needed to maintain reliability o Guidelines on frequency responsive resources being developed as part of the Frequency Response Initiative to address comprehensive integration of those various resources o Consideration of RAS, SAMS and IVGTF recommendations in LTRA and special assessments 10 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

11 Gap Analysis High-Level Conclusions Need for operator flexibility to address Generation and transmission uncertainty Changing system response with the addition of new technologies Fuel uncertainty Serving unexpected loads Need for sufficient planning reserves to address Timing of retirements, scheduled outages, regulatory requirements Regulatory uncertainty Fuel uncertainty Need for accurate assessments and planning studies to address Risks and uncertainties of emerging reliability issues Actual operating characteristics and system dynamics Regionality of reliability issues needs consideration 11 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

12 Current NERC Actions Technical Committee Role Long-Term and Seasonal Assessments Special Reliability Assessments on emerging issues Technical support and guidance documents for use in standards development and compliance operations (e.g., IVGTF, SAMS) System Analysis and Reliability Initiatives (e.g., IFRO, modeling) NERC Staff Role Collaboration with interconnection-wide/regional planning and study groups on emerging issues (e.g., EIPC on natural gas vulnerabilities) Coordination with state regulators on resource adequacy challenges Education and key messaging to industry, regulators, and public Coordination with NERC governmental relations and communications 12 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

13 LTRA Risk Assessment The following provides some insights into the LTRA risk assessment of more granular and region-specific issues 13 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

14 Example of Sub-Risk Assessment in LTRA Integration of Variable Generation Provides more fidelity on challenges associated with VERs Leverages existing LTRA process and stakeholder/sme inputs o values are an average of all survey participants Reactive Power and Inertia Impacts to BPS Valid and Respresentative Models of VER: Voltage Stability and Frequency Response Impacts to BPS Sub-risk Assessment: Continued Integration of Variable Generation Distributed VERs Manageable. No further action is needed from NERC 2-Manageable, assuming the continuation of existing initiatives to address the issue 3-Manageable, but will cause challenges and additional action to be taken to address the issue (e.g., special assessment, technical committee review) Overall Integration of VERs 4-Potentially unmanageable without Control (e.g. active and reactive) and Communication significant action, including shifts from existing policy and possible enhancements VER Forecasting to NERC standards and guidelines New Transmission to Support VERs 5-Unmanageable under current trajectory; extreme risk; must be addressed 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% immediately 14 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

15 Example of Sub-Risk Assessment in LTRA Integration of Variable Generation Resource Adequacy Provides more Regional perspective on risk area Provides SME insights on likelihood and timing o values are an average of all survey participants Regional Assessment: Integration of Variable Generation, Resource Adequacy 6 to 10 Years 1 to 5 Years SPP MRO SERC WECC RFC TRE NPCC FRCC % 20% 40% 60% 80% 1-Very Low: No impact to resource adequacy projections 2-Low: Some impact to resource adequacy, but adequate reserve margin projections 3-Medium: Reserve margin projections are below target 4-High: Significant impact to reserve margins 15 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

16 Risk Assessment Highlights Most issues were categorized as Manageable, but will cause challenges and additional action to be taken to address the issue (e.g., special assessment, technical committee review) About 20 percent of participants categorized the following long-term issues as Potentially unmanageable without significant action, including shifts from existing policy and possible enhancements to NERC standards and or guidelines Continued Integration of Variable Generation Fossil-Fired Retirements and Coordination of Outages for Environmental Control Retrofits Increased Dependence on Natural Gas for Electric Power Less than 5 percent of participants identified only two long-term issues categorized as Unmanageable under current trajectory; extreme risk; must be addressed immediately Increased Dependence on Natural Gas for Electric Power Fossil-Fired Retirements and Coordination of Outages for Environmental Control Retrofits 16 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

17 Lower Impact Higher Impact Impact LTRA Risk Assessment High Level (Preliminary) Wide-Scale Nuclear Generation Retirements and/or Long-Term Outages Increased Dependence on Demand Response Continued Integration of Variable Generation Increased Dependence on Natural Gas for Electric Power Fossil-Fired Retirements and Coordination of Outages for Environmental Increasing Uncertainty in Load Forecasts Aging Infrastructure Transmission Siting, Permitting, and other Right-of- Way Issues Lower Likelihood Higher Likelihood Likelihood 17 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

18 Questions? 18 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

19 More Information? NERC Reports on Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation: DRAFT Joint NERC-CAISO Special Reliability Assessment: Maintaining Bulk Power System Reliability While Integrating Variable Energy Resources to Meet Renewable Portfolio Standards Interconnection Requirements for Variable Generation, NERC, September 2012 Potential Bulk System Reliability Impacts of Distributed Resources Methods to Model and Calculate Capacity Contributions of Variable Generation for Resource Adequacy Planning Ancillary Service and Balancing Authority Area Solutions to Integrate Variable Generation Operating Practices, Procedures, and Tools Potential Reliability Impacts of Emerging Flexible Resources Variable Generation Power Forecasting for Operations Standard Models for Variable Generation Flexibility Requirements and Potential Metrics for Variable Generation NERC Reports on Accommodating and Increased Dependency on Natural Gas Primer (Phase I) Vulnerability Assessment (Phase II) NERC Reliability Assessments (Long-Term and Seasonal) 19 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY