2011 Special Reliability Assessment: A Primer on the Natural Gas and Electric Power Interdependency in the United States

Transcription

1 2011 Special Reliability Assessment: A Primer on the Natural Gas and Electric Power Interdependency in the United States

2 Timeline Phase I Sept October 25 November 18 Mid November Report sent to PC for review and comment Report to be considered for approval by PC Report to be considered for approval by BOT Publish Report Phase II Under development Comments on the study design/scope received from PC Expected during Q1, RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

3 Highlights Key differences exists between gas and electricity producers; regional differences also exist Increased coordination and communication is needed Nearby gas storage and dual-fuel switching options diminish interdependency issues Electric loads present unique challenges to gas pipeline operators Future expansion of pipelines to accommodate electric sector growth 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

4 Gas Storage in North America 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

5 Gas Demand Growth by Sector 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

6 2010 US Gas Consumption Areas of no gas storage Areas where significant potential retirements may occure more gas-fired generation expected 6 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

7 What We ll Need Demand projected to increase by 55 to 65 percent by 2020; and potentially more than double by 2030 High, Likely, and Low Scenarios Electric Sector Gas Demand 45.0 (BCFD) High Case Base Case Low Case RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

8 What We Have Over 100 years of potential shale gas at current rates Uncertainty in environmental regulations will affect gas prices 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 (TCF) Total Potential U.S. Natural Gas Resources 1,321 1,836 1,898 1,200 1, ,003 1,001 1,028 1,067 1,038 1,091 1,127 1, Source: Potential Gas Committee RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

9 How We ll Get it There Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity Additions 8.3 BCFD of gas pipeline capacity built in last 10 years 24k miles of gas pipeline built in last 10 years Reference: Electric industry took 17 years to build 24k circuit miles of transmission greater than 200 kv More pipeline capacity will be needed to support new gas-fired capacity 32,500 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500-4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 (MMCFD) 8,460 Announced Likely Under Construction Complete 6,983 6,517 9,262 12,848 10,423 8,198 7,661 12,705 14,859 28,938 19,532 13,882 18,606 10, Note: Excludes Storage Pipelines after 2007 (Miles) Announced Likely Under Construction Complete 2,432 2,338 1,998 Natural Gas Pipeline Mileage Additions 2,391 3,571 2,243 1,459 1,152 1,582 1,663 3,554 3,347 1,787 2,714 1, RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

10 How Much Gas-Fired Capacity Are We Expecting? As provided in the 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment: Approximately 45 GW of Planned; 48 GW of Conceptual More expected due to not yet announced retirements of coal-fired gen. 10 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

11 Do the Math Assuming: For every 1 MW of coal-fired generation replaced with gas-fired generation (baseload; running 24 hours a day), approximately MMCFD of gas supply is needed. Assuming: The most recent five-year average pipeline capacity/mile is 7 MMCFD/mile 24,000 miles of additional gas pipeline may be needed for about 50 GW of displaced coal-fired generation This is the same amount of miles built in the past 10 years 11 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

12 Electric Day Gas Day Gas-Day vs. Electric Day Need Closer Coordination and Enhanced Communication Long-standing issue between the two industries Both sides have dealt with it, and aware of the potential issues Increasing concerns and challenges loom Day 1 Morning Day 1 Afternoon Day 1 Evening Day 2 Early Morning Day 2 Morning Nominations Scheduled For Day Timely Timely Next Nominations Confirmed Nominations Scheduled For Next Day Evening Evening Nominations Confirmed Effective Gas Flow Day-Ahead Forecast and Unit Commitment Commitment and Generation Schedules Confirmed Generations Schedules Adjusted, Reliability Analysis Real-Time Economic Dispatch Planning Gap Nominations requested for Day 2, but changes in load forecast, system conditions, and, ultimately, generation schedules continue during Day 1 12 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

13 Status of 2004 Recommendations Update since 2004 Study Significant progress has been made Recommendations for Reliability Assessment are implemented and continuing Coordination between pipeline operators and electric system operators is closer Identifying pipeline outages that can affect reliability More needed on planning front Firm contracts vs. pipeline expansion Many recommendations related to a tracking system Not formal in NERC process, but liaison activities between stakeholders and gas associations in place 13 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

14 Recommendations Natural gas storage expansion to meet unique electric sector demand characteristics (i.e., unexpected swings) Vital information needs to be shared with system operators from both industries. Communication between industries is essential Vulnerabilities should be identified and mitigating strategies implemented by both industries (i.e., coordinated action) 14 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

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