2012 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK
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1 2012 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK Marjorie Schmidt-Pines, Principal Regulatory Economic Advisor Southern California Gas Company and SDG&E Regulatory Affairs January, 2012 This information is provided solely for informational purposes. Although Southern California Gas Co. (SoCalGas) has used reasonable efforts to assure its accuracy, no representation is made that the contents are free from error or suitable for use for any particular purpose. SoCalGas assumes no responsibility for use of, or reliance on, this information by any party, and specifically advise such parties to discuss any decisions or actions related hereto with their own advisors and experts San Diego Gas and Electric and Southern California Gas Company. All copyright and trademark rights reserved
2 Natural Gas Outlook U.S. shale gas resources drive increases U.S. production, lower prices, economic growth and lower imports of natural gas Industrial and electric power use drives future demand growth Non-hydro renewables and natural gas are the fastest growing electricity generation sources Natural gas prices expected to continue to be low in 2012 due to mild winter and an expanded shale gas resource base 2
3 2001 to 2011 A decade makes a difference Source: LDC 3 Forum, Exxon Mobil,, October, 2011
4 Factors impacting Natural Gas Growth Source: LDC Forum, Exxon Mobil, October,
5 30% domestic gas production growth outpaces 16% consumption growth, leading to declining imports U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year History 2009 Projections Consumption Net imports 23.2 Tcf 11% 26.5 Tcf 26.1Tcf 1% Domestic supply 20.2 Tcf 5 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
6 Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing 6 Source: ProPublica,
7 Success in the Barnett prompted companies to look at other shale formations in the United States 7
8 Over the last decade, U.S. shale gas production has increased 14-fold and now comprises about 22 percent of total U.S. production annual shale gas production trillion cubic feet 8 Source: EIA, Lippman Consulting (2010 estimated)
9 Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet 2, Unproved shale gas 1,481 Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore) 245 Proved reserves (all types & locations) * Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation. 9 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
10 Four-fold increase in shale gas production offsets declines in other U.S. supply, meeting consumption growth and lowering import needs 10
11 Spurring Economic Growth Source: LDC Forum, Exxon Mobil,, October, 2011, 11
12 SoCalGas Sources of Natural Gas SoCalGas Total Supply Mix for 2010 Deliveries (BCF) Source: California Gas Report, SoCalGas
13 Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed; industrial and electric power use drives future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet per year History 2009 Projections 32% Industrial* 35% 30% Central electric power 29% 14% Commercial 14% Transportation** 21% 3% Residential 18% 3% * Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. ** Includes pipeline fuel. 13 Richard Newell, December 16, 2010 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
14 The projected electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, with generation from natural gas rising 37% and renewables rising 73% electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History 2009 Projections 45% Coal 43% 23% 10% 20% 1% Natural gas Renewable Nuclear Oil and other 25% 14% 17% 1% 14 Richard Newell, December 16, 2010 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
15 Bcf/Year Southern California Gas Demand Wholesale EG Noncore Non EG Core Non Residential Residential Source: CGR
16 U.S. Storage Expected to Remain High This Winter U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage billion cubic feet 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000 Storage level Deviation from average -3,000 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Forecast 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan Dec Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December
17 Winter 2011/12 Weather has the most impact on spot natural gas prices. 17 Source: NOAA
18 01/01 06/01 11/01 04/02 09/02 02/03 07/03 12/03 05/04 10/04 03/05 08/05 01/06 06/06 11/06 04/07 09/07 02/08 07/08 12/08 05/09 10/09 03/10 08/10 01/11 06/11 11/11 $/mmbtu Natural Gas Price History CA AZ Border and SoCal Citygate - NGI Monthly Index Data Souce: NGI Bidweek Survey January 3, Southern Border, SoCal NGI Bidweek ($/Dth) SoCal Citygate NGI Bidweek ($/Dth) 18
19 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Oil vs Natural Gas Prices Historical Oil Prices vs. Gas Prices Equivalent Unit Cost ($/MMBtu) 1 Barrel = 6.2 MMBtu Last Updated: 1/3/2012 Source: Source: Oil prices - EIA, CA/AZ Border Gas Price - ProphetX T:\oil vs gas.xls 25 CA/AZ Border NG Cash ($/MMBtu) WTI Crude Equiv ($/MMBtu)
20 $/mmbtu While Gas Prices Have Fluctuated: SoCalGas Transportation Costs Have Been Flat Core Transport Noncore Transport $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Core Gas Cost ` CA Border Index Transport costs are the Volumetric & Customer Charge. Core 100,000 th /year and Noncore 1.5MMth/year. Core Gas Cost is SCG s core procurement rate and CA Border Index is Natural Gas Intelligence Index 20
21 $/mmbtu Where are Gas Futures Prices Going? 6.0 Natural Gas NYMEX & ClearPort Futures NYMEX Futures Henry Hub ($/mmbtu) Futures CA/AZ border ($/mmbtu) This posted information is provided solely for informational purposes. Although SoCalGas and SDG&E have used reasonable efforts to assure its accuracy, no representation is made that the contents are free from error, or suitable for use for any particular purpose. SoCalGas and SDG&E assume no responsibility for use of, or reliance on, this information by any party, and specifically advise such parties to discuss any decisions or actions related hereto with their own advisors and experts. Source: Henry Hub data: PROPHETX QUOTE!'NG@[DTN:NYMEX] Border data: Ventyx Velocity Suite Updated January 3,
22 Natural Gas Prices expected to continue to be low in 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas Price dollars per million Btu 8 Historical spot price STEO price forecast NYMEX futures price 95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval 6 95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending December 1, 2011 Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December
23 North American Natural Gas Market Shale gas drives growth in natural gas production, economy and reduces reliance on imported gas. Higher demand expected for U.S. gas fired electric generation and industrial demand. Natural gas prices much lower than oil prices. Natural Gas basis differences at various hubs diminished, driven by shale production increase in the east and new pipelines added. Natural gas price projections for 2012 are lower than past years due to warmer winter and an expanded shale gas resource base. 23
24 What Can You Do to Manage Energy Costs? Take advantage of energy efficiency programs. Call your Account Executive for technical support. Go to socalgas.com/business for support tools. If you transport your own gas, talk to your gas supplier to discuss supply and pricing strategies. Look for ways to conserve and be more energy efficient. 24
25 Thank you 25
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