Our Transportation Future Where Do We Want to Go?

Transcription

1 Our Transportation Future Where Do We Want to Go? Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute Presented Technology & Innovation Symposium Los Angeles, CA 5 February 2009

2 Creating Paradise Paradise is not a distant destination, it is something we create in our own communities. 2

3 Wealth Versus Happiness Increased Happiness ==> Efficient Sustainability Inefficient Poverty Comfort Luxury Extravagance Increased Material Wealth Or Mobility ==> 3

4 Sustainable Planning Sustainability emphasizes the integrated nature of human activities and therefore the need to coordinate planning among different sectors, jurisdictions and groups. 3/4/2009

5 Preventing Problems Sustainability planning is to development what preventive medicine is to health: it anticipates and manages problems rather than waiting for crises to develop. 5

6 Paradigm Shifts Growth - expanding, doing more. Development - improving, doing better. Mobility - physical movement. Accessibility - obtaining desired goods, services and activities. 6

7 Resource Sustainability Would we have a sustainable transportation system if all automobiles were solar powered? 7

8 Past Visions of Future Transport 1949 ConvAIRCAR Flying Car Segways 1958 Firebird Boeing SST 8

9 2001 A Space Odyssey 9

10 Wheeled Luggage 10

11 Trends Supporting Multi-Modalism Modalism Motor vehicle saturation. 12,000 Aging population. Per Capita Annual Vehicle Mileage 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 US UK Rising fuel prices. Increased urbanization. Increased traffic and parking congestion. Rising roadway construction costs and declining economic return from increased roadway capacity Year Environmental concerns. Health Concerns 11

12 OECD Travel Trends Annual Passenger Kms Per Capita 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Year U.S. Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norw ay Portugal Spain Sw eden Sw itzerland U.K. 12

13 Jobs Created Jobs Created Per $1 million Expenditure Petroleum General Automobile Expenses General Consumer Expenditures Public Transit 1,000,000 households in the region saving $1,000 annually on vehicle expenses shifted to general consumer goods creates 6,000 additional regional jobs. 13

14 Value of Highway Expansion Now that the highway system is mature, economic returns from further expansion have declined. Annual Economic Returns 38% 33% 28% 23% 18% 13% 8% 3% -2% Highway Capital Private Capital

15 What is The Transportation Problem? Traffic congestion? Road construction costs? Parking congestion or costs? Excessive costs to consumers? Traffic crashes? Lack of mobility for non-drivers? Poor freight services? Environmental impacts? Inadequate physical activity? Others? 15

16 Current Transport Planning Current planning tends to be reductionist: each problem is assigned to a single agency with narrowly defined responsibilities. For example: Transport agencies deal with congestion. Environmental agencies deal with pollution. Welfare agencies deal with the needs of disadvantaged people. Public health agencies are concerned with community fitness. Etc. 16

17 Reductionist Decision-Making Reductionist planning can result in public agencies implementing solutions to one problem that exacerbate other problems facing society, and tends to undervalue strategies that provide multiple but modest benefits. 17

18 Travel Distances Versus Time 60% Walking represents a small portion of travel distance but a large portion of travel time, particularly in urban areas 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Distance Time Trips Walk Automobile Driver 18

19 How Important is Walking? Mode Split NMT Transit Auto If, instead of asking, What portion of trips are only by active transport? We ask, What portion of trips involve some active transport? the portion of active transport typically increases 2-6 times. Conventional Comprehensive 19

20 Smart Transportation Economic Stimulation The Future Isn t What It Used To Be Win-Win Transportation Solutions Online TDM Encyclopedia and more