4.16 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

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1 4.16 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS This section describes the science and regulatory framework associated with global climate change and considers the potential cumulative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that could occur from land use and transportation related changes to the plan area allowed by the New General Plan. The analysis also addresses the potential impacts to the plan area as a result of sea level rise, a phenomenon understood to be associated with greenhouse gas emissions and global climate change. The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) requires that lead agencies consider the reasonably foreseeable adverse environmental effects of projects considered for approval. Updates to the CEQA Guidelines codified in March 2010 require lead agencies to consider the potential for a project to result in significant emissions of greenhouse gases. The updated Guidelines further state that one of the factors that lead agencies should consider in determining the significance of a project s greenhouse gas emissions is whether the project s anticipated emissions would comply with pertinent regulations. According to the California Office of the Attorney General and other State agencies, global climate change should be considered an effect on the environment and an individual project s incremental contribution to global climate change can have a cumulatively considerable impact. Information related to GHG emissions used in this analysis is primarily based on modeled emissions within the plan area utilizing the INDEX model, a current and endorsed GHG emission modeling technologies. The Draft Staff Report, Living With a Rising Bay: Vulnerability And Adaption in San Francisco Bay And On the Shoreline, prepared by the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) in 2009 forms the basis of the sea level rise evaluation for the plan area. Global Climate Change Background Global climate change is an increasingly acknowledged environmental problem. Global climate change refers to long-term fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, wind, and other elements of the earth s climate systems. Natural processes such as solar-irradiance (sunlight) variations, variations in the earth s orbital parameters, and volcanic activity can produce variations in climate. The climate system can also be influenced by changes in the concentration of various gases in the atmosphere, which affect the earth s absorption of radiation. The natural process through which heat is retained in the troposphere 1 is called the greenhouse gas effect. The greenhouse gas effect traps heat in the troposphere through the following three-fold process: short-wave radiation emitted by the sun is absorbed by the earth; the earth emits a portion of this energy in the form of long-wave radiation (thermal radiation); and GHGs in the upper atmosphere absorb the long-wave radiation and emit it towards the earth. This trapping of the long-waves (thermal radiation) emitted back toward the earth is the underlying process of the greenhouse gas effect. 1 The troposphere is the lowest portion of the earth s atmosphere

2 Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the definition of climate change is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Given that definition, in its Second Assessment Report (1996) of the science of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), concluded that human activities are changing the atmospheric concentrations and distributions of greenhouse gases. The earth s average near-surface atmospheric temperature increased by between 0.6 ± 0.2 C (1.1 ± 0.4 F) during the 20th century. 2 The prevailing scientific opinion on global climate change is that most of the warming observed over the last half of the 2oth century can be attributed to human activities. GHGs, including carbon dioxide (CO 2), are the primary causes of the human-induced component of global climate change. GHGs released by the burning of fossil fuels, agriculture, land clearing, waste decomposition, soil disruption, and the release of industrial chemicals lead to an increase in the greenhouse gas effect. As a result of an increase in the greenhouse gas effect, changes to the earth s environment would include, but would not be limited to the following: Rise in global average sea levels, which would threaten coastal infrastructure; due to melting of glaciers. Loss of sea ice and mountain snow pack; More frequent heat waves; and High potential for coastline erosion and seawater intrusion. The GHG emissions from any individual project, even a very large development project, would not individually generate sufficient GHG emissions to measurably influence global climate change. However, the GHG emissions from any individual project contribute to cumulative GHG emissions on a global, national, and regional scale. Consideration of a project s impact to global climate change is, therefore, an analysis of a project s contribution to a cumulatively significant global impact through its emission of GHGs. According to the 2009 Draft Climate Action Team Report, the following climate change effects and conditions can be expected in California over the course of the next century: 3 A diminishing Sierra snowpack declining by 70 to 90 percent over the next 100 years, threatening the state s water supply Impeded progress towards attaining and maintaining ambient air quality standards for ozone, possibly causing and increasing the number of days that standards are exceeded Substantial impacts to agriculture caused by decreased fresh water storage capacity and intrusion of salt water into the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Delta 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis California Environmental Protection Agency. Draft Climate Action Team Report to Governor Schwarzenegger and the Legislature. March

3 Coastal erosion along the length of California from a sea level increase of up to 55 inches over the next 100 years. This would require significant infrastructure costs and exacerbate flooding in already vulnerable regions Increased vulnerability of forests due to pest infestation and increased temperatures, potentially increasing the threat of wild fires that have substantial economic and health costs Increased temperatures that would lead to an increase in electricity demand, particularly in the hot summer months Properties of Greenhouse Gases The primary GHGs addressed in California law include carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (chemical abbreviation: CH 4), nitrous oxide (chemical abbreviation: N 2O), and ozone (O 3). 4 Several classes of halogenated substances that contain fluorine, chlorine, or bromine are also GHGs, but they are primarily products of specialized industrial activities. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and halons are stratospheric ozone depleting substances. While other fluorine containing substances do not deplete stratospheric ozone, including hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6), they are considered powerful GHGs. A brief description of each GHG, its sources, and its role in the atmosphere is provided below. Carbon Dioxide CO 2 In the atmosphere, carbon predominantly exists in its oxidized form as CO 2. Natural sources of CO 2 include plants and animals (through respiration) and evaporation from the ocean. However, increased CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere have been primarily related to the increased burning of fossil fuels. Forest clearing, other biomass burning, and some production processes, such as cement production, also emit notable quantities of CO 2. Globally, CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere increased from 278 parts per million by volume (pmv) in pre-industrial times to 379 pmv in 2005, a 36 percent increase. 5 In California, fuel combustion accounts for 98 percent of gross CO 2 emissions in the state. 6 According to the IPCC, CO 2 emissions in California from fossil fuel combustion in 2002 were 360 million metric tons, 7 accounting for approximately 7 percent of the nation s emissions from this source. The transportation sector accounted for the largest portion of CO 2 emissions as a result of gasoline combustion. Methane (CH 4) Methane is primarily produced through the decomposition of organic matter in biological systems. Agricultural processes, such as wetland rice cultivation, enteric fermentation in 4 California Health and Safety Code, Section et seq. 5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis A metric ton is a unit of measurement based on the metric system rather than the standard measurement system used in the United States. A metric ton is equivalent to approximately 1,000 kilograms or 2,204 pounds. One metric ton is equivalent to 1.1 US tons. As GHG emissions occur on a global scale, their measurements are typically identified by metric tons

4 animals, 8 the decomposition of animal waste, and the decomposition of municipal solid wastes all emit methane. Methane is also emitted during the production and distribution of gas and petroleum, released as a by-product of coal mining and incomplete fossil fuel combustion. Concentrations of methane in the atmosphere have increased by about 150 percent since pre-industrial times. 9 According to the IPCC, slightly more than half of the methane emissions are from human activities such as agriculture, fossil fuel use, and waste disposal. 10 The dispersal of methane through chemical breakdown in the atmosphere cannot keep pace with source emissions; atmospheric concentrations of methane, therefore, continue to increase. According to the IPCC, methane emissions accounted for approximately 6 percent of GHG emissions in California in Nitrous Oxide (N 2O) Nitrous oxide can be produced by both natural and synthetic processes. The primary source of nitrous oxide in the United States as a whole is agricultural soil management, including the use of fertilizers and manures, which lead to chemical breakdowns resulting in creation of nitrous oxide. Other key sources in the United States include fossil fuel combustion in vehicles, human sewage treatment processes/facilities, and the production of adipic acid, a material used in the creation of nylon fibers and explosives. 12 The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide has increased by 16 percent since the preindustrial era, from 270 ppb in 1750 to 314 ppb in As documented by IPCC, nitrous oxide emissions accounted for approximately 7 percent of GHG emissions in California in Hydrofluorocarbons, Perfluorocarbons, and Sulfur Hexafluoride (Halocarbons) Halocarbons are primarily man-made chemicals that have both direct and indirect radiative forcing effects. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), primarily emitted by refrigerants, are generally used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances regulated under the Montreal Protocol. 14 Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride are predominately emitted from industrial processes, such as semiconductor manufacturing, aluminum smelting, electric power transmissions, and magnesium casting. While no aluminum or magnesium production occurs in California, HFCs, PFCs, and sulfur hexafluoride accounted for approximately 3.5 percent of GHG emissions in California in Enteric fermentation occurs in the digestive tracts of ruminant animals such as cows, sheep. Ruminant animals have an additional stomach (a rumen) that enables the animals to digest plants and grains. Microbial fermentation in the rumen results in the eventual emission of methane into the atmosphere. 9 Khalil, M.A.K, C.L. Buternhoff, and R.A. Rasmussen. Atmospheric Methane: Trend and Cycle of Sources and Sinks. Environmental Science and Technology < Accessed April 7, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis U.S. EPA. Nitrous Oxide Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis The Montreal Protocol is an international treaty program of the United Nations, first ratified by the United States in 1986 and subsequently re-ratified several times, intended to phase out the use of substances deemed damaging to the ozone layer of the atmosphere. 15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

5 Global Warming Potential Global Warming Potential (GWP) serves as the quantified measure of the relative effectiveness of a gas to absorb infrared radiation, remain in the atmosphere, and contribute towards global warming. CO 2, the most abundant GHG, serves as the reference gas for the GWP, with a GWP of The GWPs used by the Bay Area Air Quality District (BAAQMD) are shown in Table , where methane is 21 times more potent at contributing to global warming than CO 2, while sulfur hexafluoride is 23,900 time more potent. Thus, CO 2 is used as the reference GHG for all GHGs. GHG emissions, which consider all GHGs, can also be presented as CO 2 equivalent (CO 2e). The CO 2 equivalent (CO 2e) measure takes into consideration all of the GHGs, as measured by the applicable GWP. Table Global Warming Potential for Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gas Relative GWP (GWP of CO 2 = 1) CO 2 1 Methane 21 Nitrous Oxide 310 Hexafluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons ,700 Sulfur hexafluoride 23,900 Source: BAAQMD. Source Inventory of Bay Area Greenhouse Gas Emissions. December Global, National, State, and Regional GHG Emission Inventories A GHG emission inventory is an accounting of the GHGs emitted to or removed from the atmosphere over a specified period of time attributed to specified activities. The UNFCCC has estimated that global GHG emissions were approximately 30 billion tons of CO 2e for the year 2004, with primary emissions from industrial and agricultural sources. 17 In the United States, GHG emissions were approximately 6.9 billion metric tons of CO 2e in 2008, representing a 13.5 percent increase over 1990 GHG emissions. 18 According to the California Air Resources Board (CARB), California is the 15 th largest emitter of GHGs in the world, totaling about two percent of worldwide GHG emissions as of Between 2002 and 2004, California produced an annual average of approximately 469 million metric tons of CO 2e, with primary emission sources from the transportation and electricity sectors. 20 In California, the most common GHG is CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion, which constitutes approximately 81 percent of all GHG emissions BAAQMD. Source Inventory of Bay Area Greenhouse Gas Emissions. December United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Sum of Annex I and Non-Annex I Countries Without Continuing Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry < 18 U.S. EPA. Draft Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: March 9, California Air Resources Board. Climate Change Scoping Plan. December California Air Resources Board. Climate Change Scoping Plan. December California Air Resources Board. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data 200 to < Accessed March 25,

6 Unless steps are taken to reduce the state s GHG emissions, such emissions are estimated to increase to an annual amount of approximately 600 metric tons of CO 2e by With regard to the San Francisco Bay Area, the BAAQMD reported a total of million metric tons of CO 2e emissions in 2007 for the San Francisco Bay Area. 22 Similar to the GHG emissions in California, the transportation sector remains the primary source of GHG emissions within the region. The 2007 BAAQMD inventory provides breakdowns for each county. San Mateo County was estimated to emit almost 8.5 million metric tons of CO 2e emissions in 2007, in which 7.7 million metric tons were from CO 2 emissions. The transportation sector accounted for over half of those emissions ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING Greenhouse Gas Emissions Existing land uses, transportation, and related activities in Redwood City and the plan area generate greenhouse gases. To better understand greenhouse gas impacts associated with the New General Plan, the City started by quantifying current emissions of greenhouse gases. Since 2005, two inventories of the City s GHG emissions have been conducted and are discussed below. Community Climate Action Plan Inventory As a separate planning effort, the City has prepared a draft Community Climate Action Plan or CCAP, outlining a number of programs and strategies the City can utilize as a means to reduce GHGs. The CCAP included an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions in the City generated by various sectors including transportation, housing, commercial and industrial activities, and waste processing. The inventory was based on the year 2005 and was developed using the Clean Air and Climate Protection software developed by ICLEI- Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI). 23 This inventory concluded that the above-mentioned activities in the City emitted 559,524 metric tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in the baseline year of INDEX Inventory The Draft CEQA Guidelines published by BAAQMD in December 2009 set forth a process (discussed in greater detail below) that may be used for the assessment and mitigation of impacts of general plans and similar long range local and regional planning projects. In accord with this process, the City performed an evaluation of the New General Plan s greenhouse gas emissions, more fully discussed in subsequent sections. This evaluation utilized a GIS based planning tool that allows for the computation of greenhouse gas emissions under a variety of land use and transportation scenarios. The City chose to 22 BAAQMD. Source Inventory of Bay Area Greenhouse Gas Emissions. December ICLEI. Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory Methodology for Bay Area Local Governments. December City of Redwood City, Draft Community Climate Action Plan, March

7 utilize the GIS based planning tool known as INDEX to model GHG emissions associated with the New General Plan. The INDEX model is a suite of GIS planning tools that use a series of indicators to measure the performance of communities and/or community plans. INDEX comprises a series of algorithms that help planners see how various land use and transportation alternatives compare against each other over a wide range of indicators. INDEX s array of indicators includes numerous activities and conditions that may contribute to and affect CO2 emissions, including estimated vehicle miles traveled, building energy efficiency, proximity of jobs and housing, and numerous other factors. INDEX includes a series of formulas that enable the computation of CO2e emissions from the following sources: Residential buildings Residential related vehicle travel Non-residential buildings Non-residential related vehicle travel Water conveyance Appendix D includes the INDEX Indicator Dictionary, which shows the formulas used by INDEX to compute these values. The INDEX modeling process began with constructing a model of existing conditions, which provides a snapshot of greenhouse gas emissions in the base year. The process of computing 2008 base year analysis began with the City s construction of a GIS database reflecting existing land uses, including type and intensity. The City built this database based upon field reconnaissance conducted in 2007 and 2008, as well as a review of County tax assessor information (which identifies a property s land use). This existing land use information was in turn run through the INDEX model to provide a snapshot of estimated existing emissions. To this end, the INDEX modeling of base year conditions, as calibrated, estimated that existing land use and transportation sources generate about 650,000 tons of CO2 annually, and as shown in Table GHG emissions in this Table are reported as CO2 emissions. Most of the emissions from Redwood City would be in the form of CO2, since they are emitted from energy usage and vehicle travel. About 99 percent of natural gas CO2e emissions are from CO2. Similarly, more than 99 percent of CO2e emissions from electricity production are from CO2. Throughout the Bay Area, almost 98 percent of on-road mobile source CO2e emissions are from CO2. Therefore, City emissions estimates are presented hereinafter as CO2, not CO2e. While both the INDEX and ICLEI inventories must be considered within their appropriate contexts and with appropriate qualifications, for the purposes of this analysis, the INDEX modeling output, as calibrated above, is utilized as the base year inventory insofar as it provides the more current estimate of base year GHG emissions

8 Table Estimated Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Plan Area, 2008 Estimated Tons/Year of CO2 (2008) Residential Buildings 134,962 Residential Vehicle Trips 202,942 Non-Residential Buildings 134,784 Non-Residential Vehicle Trips 88,339 Water Conveyance 3,844 Truck and Bus Activities* 85,580 Estimated Industrial, Construction, Waste Management Emissions* 96,500 Total (rounded) 747,000 Source: Criterion Planners, 2010; Illingworth & Rodkin, *Note: The INDEX model did not provide an estimate of GHG emissions associated with truck and bus activity, nor with activities at the Port of Redwood City. Therefore, the INDEX estimate was calibrated to include estimates of truck and bus emission activity. This information was derived from the Burden portion of CARB s EMFAC2007 model. This model produces emissions and vehicle activity estimates for San Mateo County. The amount of truck and bus activity in San Mateo County, in terms of VMT, was applied to Redwood City in order to adjust the computation of CO2 emissions. The Burden output of the EMFAC2007 model for San Mateo County indicates that light-duty vehicles (cars, light trucks) account for 89 percent of all VMT. The remaining VMT is made up of medium duty or delivery-type trucks (7.5 percent), heavy-duty trucks (2.5 percent), and other vehicles, mostly buses (1 percent). CO2 emissions rates obtained from the EMFAC2007 model were used to adjust the INDEX modeling output. Further, the INDEX model did not evaluate emissions from specific industrial sources, construction, waste management, or operations at the Port of Redwood City. (Notably, the ICLEI inventory did not include estimated emissions from specific industrial sources, construction, or Port operations). Following are efforts to characterize the level of these emissions in Redwood City: Specific industrial sources: Industrial or commercial direct emissions in San Mateo County as a whole make up about 18 percent of the County s emissions (based on a 2007 Countywide inventory). These are mostly industrial sources, with the greatest category being natural gas combustion from minor combustion sources. Illingworth & Rodkin estimates that about 50 percent of these total emissions are captured in the INDEX model for non-residential building energy use. Construction: Off-road equipment used for construction, landscaping, and various industrial and commercial operations account for about 3 percent of the Countywide inventory. Therefore, a similar estimate could be reasonably applied to Redwood City. Waste Management: The 2007 County inventory estimated that about 3 percent of all County emissions were associated with waste management; therefore, a similar estimate could be reasonably applied to Redwood City. Port: The 2007 County inventory estimated a total of about 350,000 metric tons of CO2e per year were associated with shipping (maritime); 98 percent of these emissions were from C02. This figure accounted for all shipping activity within 12 miles of San Mateo County, including both the Pacific coast and the San Francisco Bay coast. Some portion of this tonnage can be attributed specifically to the Port of Redwood City, but until a specific inventory of Port emissions is prepared, there is no reliable estimate of emissions related to Port operations. Taking the above factors into account but excluding Port emissions, the INDEX inventory captures about 85 percent of total emissions in the plan area. Excluding the Port, estimated 2008 GHG emissions would thus be about 747,000 metric tons of CO2/year. Sea Level Rise As previously discussed, GHG emissions contribute to an increase in the average global temperature and continued global warming. A rise in global temperature is expected to be combined with other climate change phenomena, including a rise in the global sea level. The increased global temperatures causes sea level rise and increase the potential for damaging floods that could affect coastal and tidal areas. Sea level rise, or the increasing volume of water in the global ocean, is affected by two distinct processes: thermal

9 expansion of warming ocean water and melting of continental ice, including mountain glaciers and land bound polar ice on Greenland and Antarctica. Climatologists and other qualified experts studying the issue have documented that global sea levels rose nearly 0.2 meters (8 inches) during the 20 th century and anticipate that sea level rise will continue well into the 21 st century. 25 The IPCC analyzed a number of global sea level rise scenarios, most of the scenarios hinging on variation in future global greenhouse gas emissions levels. The most conservative scenario, associated with a global population peaking in mid-century and rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information technology, indicates a global sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.38 meters (approximately 8 to 16 inches) by the year Under a scenario associated with rapid economic growth and large expansions of GHG emissions, sea levels could rise up to 0.59 meters (approximately 24 inches). Other estimates have calculated potentially higher increases in sea levels of up to 2 meters (approximately 6.5 feet) depending upon the rate of melting of polar ice sheets and the global warming feedback loops that could occur. BCDC has developed draft findings and policies on climate change and a background report that reflects the current state of knowledge regarding the potential impacts of climate change on the region. The background report, Draft Staff Report, Living With a Rising Bay: Vulnerability And Adaption in San Francisco Bay And On the Shoreline, published April 7, 2009, identifies potential impacts of climate change on public health and safety. According to this report, global climate change effects are expected to result in a 16-inch (0.4 meters) sea level rise in San Francisco Bay by mid-century (2050) and in a 55-inch (1.4 meters) sea level rise by the end of the century (2100). This rise would make approximately 180,000 acres of Bay shoreline vulnerable to flooding by mid-century, and 213,000 acres vulnerable to flooding by the end of the century. The Bay shoreline areas most vulnerable to inundation are the areas currently identified as the 100-year floodplains by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Additionally, it is predicted that global climate change could also result in extreme storm events, which in combination with higher sea level, would cause greater flooding. When combined with high tides, even a one foot increase in the average sea level would result in the 100-year event high tide peak occurring at the ten-year event frequency. 26 A frequency of a current 100-year high tide would, therefore, occur ten times more often when sea levels increase 1 foot above current sea levels. According to the sea level rise vulnerability maps prepared by BCDC, the northern portion of the plan area would be most immediately vulnerable to sea level rise. The majority of this area would be vulnerable to an approximate 16-inch rise in sea level by A 25 BCDC. Draft Staff Report, Living With a Rising Bay: Vulnerability And Adaptation in San Francisco Bay and On the Shoreline. April 7, Climate Change Center Climate Warming and Water Supply Management in California; White Paper. Chapter 2: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on California s Water Resources, Figure 2.32 Impact of One Foot Sea Level Rise on the Relative Effect of Astronomical Tides in the Delta

10 limited portion of the plan area, particularly areas within the proposed Waterfront neighborhood and Downtown, would also be subject to sea level rise increases of up to 55 inches by Figure shows the sea level rise vulnerability in relation to the plan area. However, it is important to note that this data is limited by the information available and the uncertainty regarding future change in the climate and sea level REGULATORY SETTING Global climate change resulting from GHG emissions is an emerging environmental concern being raised and discussed at the international, national, statewide, and local levels. At each level, agencies are considering strategies to control emissions of gases that contribute to global climate change. These agencies described below work jointly, as well as individually, to address GHG emissions through legislation, regulations, planning, policy-making, education, and implementation programs. International United Nations In 1988, the United Nations established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to evaluate the impacts to global warming and to develop strategies that nations could implement to curtail global climate change. The U.S. joined several countries around the world to sign the United Nation s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreement (Kyoto Protocol) in November However, the U.S. s signing of the Kyoto Protocol was never ratified by the United States Congress. In 2001, the Bush Administration disengaged from the Kyoto Protocol in favor of studying potential domestic actions that might be made towards the reduction of GHG in the U.S. The Kyoto Protocol is set to expire in In December 2009, representatives from 170 countries convened to prepare an updated international treaty for GHG emission reductions, known as the Copenhagen Protocol. The Copenhagen Protocol seeks to establish a two degree limit (Celsius) on global warming by However, this agreement is not considered legally binding on the nations that have executed it and therefore has no effect on any state or local regulations. Federal United States Environmental Protection Agency In October 2009, United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) issued a Final Rule for mandatory reporting of GHG emissions in October This Final Rule applies to fossil fuel suppliers, industrial gas suppliers, direct GHG emitters, and manufactures of heavy-duty and off-road vehicles and vehicle engines, and requires annual reporting of emissions. The Final Rule went into effect on December 29, 2009, with data collection beginning on January 1, 2010, and the first annual reports due in March This rule does not regulate the emission of GHGs; it only requires the monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions for those sources above certain

11 Redwood City Legend Source: BCDC, 2009 Redwood City New General Plan Area Area vulnerable to an approximate 16-inch sea level rise Area vulnerable to an approximate 55-inch sea level rise No data Redwood City General Plan EIR Sea Level Rise Vulnerability FIG 1:7, Geografika Consulting

12 thresholds. 27 The U.S. EPA adopted a Final Endangerment Finding for the six defined GHGs on December 7, The Endangerment Finding is required before the U.S. EPA can regulate GHG emissions under Section 202(a)(1) of the federal Clean Air Act (CAA) in fulfillment of the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency (549 U.S. 497 (2007)). In this matter, the U.S. Supreme Court held that the U.S. EPA has authority to regulate greenhouse gases. As of April 2010, the Rule and the Endangerment Finding have no direct effect on the state and local regulatory efforts the City is implementing in the New General Plan. State California Air Resources Board (CARB) The CARB is responsible for implementing state policy to address global climate change. As part of the California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal EPA), CARB is responsible for the coordination and administration of both federal and state air pollution control programs and conducts research, sets air quality standards, develops emission inventories, establishes control measures, and provides oversight to local programs. CARB adopted Resolution on December 6, 2007, which approved a 427 million metric ton of CO 2e as the statewide GHG emissions limit as of This statewide target is equivalent to the 1990 levels and is intended to reduce GHG emissions statewide. There are multiple state laws and regulations that pertain to CARB and provide additional guidance and/or action items for local jurisdictions within the State of California. Assembly Bill 1493 Signed into law in 2002, Assembly Bill 1493 (AB 1493) required CARB to adopt regulations that achieve the maximum feasible reduction of GHG emissions from passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks and other noncommercial personal transportation vehicles by January 1, The California Code of Regulations (CCR) regarding existing motor vehicle emission standards were amended and approved in 2005 per AB GHG emission limits were placed on all aforementioned vehicles beginning with the 2009 model year, with emission limits further reduced each model year through Current projections indicate even with these measures enacted, California will still fall short of the 1990 level targets for transportation emission reductions. Under the Administration of President George W. Bush, the U.S. EPA blocked California s efforts to implement low carbon fuel standards; however, the Obama Administration has directed the U.S. EPA to reconsider its action. Nonetheless, the earlier U.S. EPA action and pending legal challenges by the automotive industry could continue to delay California s efforts to achieve emission reduction targets. State of California Executive Order S-3-05 In June 2005, the Governor of California signed Executive Order S-3-05, which identified the Cal EPA as the lead coordinating state agency for establishing climate change emission 27 US EPA, October 30, CFR Parts 86, 87,89 et al. Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases; Final Rule

13 reduction targets in California. Under this order, the state plans to reduce GHG emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels by Specifically, the order includes the following benchmarks: By 2010, reduce statewide GHG emissions to year 2000 levels; By 2020, reduce statewide GHG emissions to 1990 levels; and By 2050, reduce statewide GHG emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels. The Climate Action Team, a group of state agencies, was set up to implement Executive Order S-3-05 and report on the progress made toward meeting statewide targets. The Climate Action Team published the Climate Action Team Report of Governor Schwarzenegger and the Legislature in March 2006, which identified specific emission reduction strategies for reducing GHG emissions and reaching the established targets. A discussion of these strategies is provided under the heading California Climate Action Team Report Standards. Assembly Bill 32 The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 In September 2006, the Governor of California signed into law Assembly Bill (AB) 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act. The Act requires that California cap its GHG emissions at 1990 levels by This legislation requires CARB to establish a program for statewide GHG emissions reporting, and monitoring/enforcement of that program. CARB recently published a list of discrete GHG emission reduction measures that can be implemented immediately (the Early Action Plan). CARB is also required to adopt rules and regulations to achieve the maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective GHG emission reductions. CARB has estimated the 1990 statewide emissions level to be 427 million metric tons of CO 2e. Meeting the reduction targets of AB 32 will therefore require a reduction of almost 30 percent of the emissions that would otherwise be anticipated in While passenger vehicle emissions are a major source of GHG emissions that CARB has identified for emission reduction, CARB is also targeting other sources of emissions. The main measures to reduce GHG emissions will be contained in the AB 32 Scoping Plan, which was adopted by CARB in December This plan includes a range of GHG reduction actions, separated by emissions sector (transportation, industry, energy generation, forestry, etc.). Central to the draft plan is a cap and trade program, 28 currently under development, that would assign emissions credits to cover large portions of the state s GHG emissions. This program is being developed in conjunction with the Western Climate Initiative, comprised of seven states and three Canadian provinces, to create a regional carbon market. The Scoping Plan also proposes that utilities produce a third of their energy from renewable sources such as wind, solar and geothermal, and proposes to expand and strengthen existing energy efficiency programs, such as building and 28 A cap and trade program is commonly referred to as an emissions trading program. The program is an administrative approach used to control pollution by providing economic incentives for achieving reductions in pollutant emissions. A governing authority sets a limit, or cap, on the total emissions permitted for a particular pollutant. Other agencies or companies are issued emission permits and are required to hold an equivalent number of allowances, allowing for the right to emit a set amount of emissions. Agencies or companies requiring an increase in emissions beyond their cap are able to trade allowances to agencies or companies not using their total allotments, or caps

14 appliance standards. The regulatory process to implement the plan begins in By law, implementation measures must be enacted by Senate Bill 97 Modification to the Public Resources Code Related to AB 32, Senate Bill 97 (SB 97) required that by July 1, 2009, the California Office of Planning and Research (OPR) prepare, develop, and transmit to the Resources Agency (Natural Resource Agency) guidelines for the feasible mitigation of GHG emissions or the effects of GHG emissions, as required by CEQA, including but not limited to effects associated with transportation or energy consumption. OPR transmitted draft guidelines to the Natural Resources Agency in June Per SB 97, the draft guidelines were approved in December 2009, meeting the requirement of the Natural Resources Agency to certify and adopt the guidelines by January 1, The guidelines incorporate proposed text changes related to the significance criteria for evaluating GHG emissions on the environment. The draft guidelines were formalized on March 18, 2010 and all CEQA documents prepared after this date are required to comply with the OPR-approved amendments to the CEQA guidelines. As part of these guidelines, OPR recommends that each agency develop an approach to determining the significance of GHG emissions, based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data, that considers the following factors: (1) the extent to which the project may increase or reduce GHG emissions compared to the existing environment; (2) whether project emissions exceed a threshold of significance that the lead agency has determined applies to the project; and (3) the extent to which the project complies with regulations or requirements adopted to implement a statewide, regional, or local plan for reducing or mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. The OPR does not identify a threshold of significance for GHG emissions within the amended CEQA guidelines, nor has it prescribed methodologies or specific mitigation measures for evaluating and reducing GHG emissions. Thus, the amendments encourage lead agencies to develop their own determinations based on substantial evidence. The amendments also encourage public agencies to make use of programmatic mitigation plans and programs from which to tier subsequent project-level environmental review processes. At this time, neither the City of Redwood City nor the BAAQMD have formalized a significance threshold for GHG emissions within the City or region. However, the BAAQMD released draft GHG thresholds in September 2009 and revised the draft thresholds in December 2009 as part of the BAAQMD Draft CEQA Air Quality Guidelines, which would provide guidance on quantifying and evaluating GHG emissions. The Draft BAAQMD CEQA Air Quality Guidelines propose an operational-related threshold of significance for GHG emissions for plans (including General Plans) but do not propose a threshold of significance for construction-period GHG emissions. As of December 2009, the BAAQMD proposed a draft threshold of 6.6 metric tons of CO 2e per year per service population for long-range, plan-level GHG emission impacts. 29 In other words, a plan that complied with the BAAQMD standard would result in not more than 29 The service population refers to the total anticipated population and number of employees within the plan area

15 6.6 metric tons of CO 2e emissions per year per resident and employee by the year While this standard remains in draft form, the BAAQMD Board of Directors may be considering adoption of the BAAQMD CEQA Guidelines and GHG emission thresholds as early as June Senate Bill 375 California s Regional Transportation and Land Use Planning Efforts California enacted legislation (SB 375) to attempt to reduce GHG emissions by modifying land use planning and approval practices. SB 375, signed in September 2008, requires metropolitan planning organizations (MPO), such as ABAG, to adopt a sustainable community strategy (SCS) or alternative planning strategy when preparing their updated Regional Transportation Plans for the purpose of reducing GHG emissions. All future transportation funding must be consistent with the SCS. The legislation also allows developers to bypass certain environmental reviews under CEQA if they build projects consistent with the new sustainable community strategies. SB 375 also directs CARB to develop regional GHG emission reduction targets to be achieved from the transportation sector for 2020 and CARB will work with the MPOs and regional planning agencies (ABAG and MTC in the Bay Area) to align their regional transportation, housing and land use plans to reduce vehicle miles traveled and attain its GHG reduction targets. However, the regional targets for reductions in GHG emissions have not yet been adopted by CARB. SB 375 also extends the minimum time period for the regional housing needs allocation cycle from 5 years to 8 years for local governments within an MPO that meet certain requirements. City or county land use policies, including general plans, are not required to be consistent with the regional transportation plan. However, new provisions of CEQA would incentivize qualified projects and categorize projects as transit priority projects if they are consistent with an approved SCS or alternative planning strategy. CARB Climate Change Scoping Plan In response to the aforementioned state legislation (specifically AB 32), CARB prepared the Climate Change Scoping Plan (Scoping Plan), which incorporates programs and measures to address the remaining GHG emission reductions needed to be reduced to 1990 levels by year The Scoping Plan was approved by the CARB Board in December 2008 and includes a host of strategies to achieve a 30 percent reduction in projected GHG emission levels in 2020 to meet 1990 GHG emission levels. The Scoping Plan also recommends GHG emission reduction targets for each emission section of the state s GHG inventory. The Scoping Plan calls for the largest reductions in GHG emissions to be achieved by implementing the following measures and standards: Improved emission standards for light-duty vehicles (reduction of 31.7 million metric tons of CO2e) Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (15 million metric tons of CO2e) 30 Energy efficiency measures in buildings and appliances for heat and power systems (26.3 million metric tons of CO2e) Renewable portfolio standard for electricity production (21.3 million metric tons of CO2e) 30 The Low Carbon Fuel Standard was adopted through a 2007 gubernatorial executive order (S-1-07)

16 California Heavy Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Measure On December 12, 2008, immediately following the adoption of the Scoping Plan, CARB adopted the Heavy Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction measure that requires long-haul truckers to install fuel efficient tires and aerodynamic devices on their trailers. This measure will reduce GHG emissions through improved fuel economy. California Attorney General s Office Strategies The California Attorney General s Office developed a set of strategies and mitigation measures with the intent of reducing GHG emissions per the direction of AB 32. This list was last updated in January The Attorney General s Office also provides guidance to local jurisdictions in determining climate change impacts as part of the public review process. These strategies (and an evaluation of the project s consistency with these strategies) are identified in Table California Climate Action Team Report Standards Per Executive Order S-05-05, signed in June 2005, the State of California mandates the preparation of biennial science assessment reports on climate change impacts and adaptation options for the state. The first California Climate Action Team (CCAT) Assessment Report was produced in March 2006, followed by an updated report in A Draft 2009 Climate Action Team Report has been prepared and includes a host of implementation strategies to reduce GHG emissions. The strategies relate to water use efficiency, solid waste, transportation emissions, and green building initiatives. These standards (and an evaluation of the project s consistency with these standards) are identified in Table State Green Building Standards Code (CALGreen) Adopted by the State Building Standards Commission in January 2010, CALGreen supplements the California Building Standards Code (Title 24) and will, upon taking effect on January 1, 2011, require all new buildings in the state to incorporate energy saving features. New standards include the following: Water efficiency: New buildings must demonstrate at least a 20 percent reduction in water use over typical baseline conditions. Construction waste: At least 50 percent of construction waste must be recycled, reused, or otherwise diverted from landfilling. Interior finishes: Interior finishes such as paints, carpet, vinyl flooring, particle board, and other similar materials must be low-pollutant emitting. Landscape irrigation: In nonresidential buildings, separate water meters must be provided for a building s indoor and outdoor water use. Large landscape projects must use moisture-sensing irrigation systems to limit unnecessary watering

17 Regional and Local Redwood City Community Climate Action Plan The City s draft Community Climate Action Plan (CCAP) provides tools and encouragement for residents and local businesses to coordinate with the City to reduce GHG emissions. The CCAP was drafted in conjunction with the City s Climate Action Advisory Team and through extensive public outreach in the community. The CCAP, which was acknowledged by the Redwood City Council in early 2010, includes a GHG emissions inventory from the year 2005 and sets forth a GHG reduction target for the year a 15 percent decrease in GHG emissions from 2005 levels. To this end, the CCAP includes a number of targeted reduction strategies. Notably, the CCAP does not adhere to the Draft BAAQMD Guidance for a qualified climate action plan and is not intended for use in the environmental review of future development projects in the City. Redwood City Green Building Ordinance Green building is the practice of decreasing a building s demand for energy, water, and other materials and reducing a building s negative impacts on human health and on the local environment. According to the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), buildings annually consume more than 30 percent of the total energy and 60 percent of the electricity used in the United States. The City adopted a Green Building Ordinance (GBO) in 2009 that establishes building construction guidelines relating to, among other things, sustainable site development, water savings, energy efficiency, materials selection, and indoor environmental quality. Commute Alternative Program Redwood City sponsors a popular Transportation Demand Management (TDM) program, encouraging employees to commute to work using public transit, carpooling, or walking and biking. The TDM program is currently available only to municipal employees, but large employers in the City utilize their own similar programs. This program provides incentives and information to help employees commute to work using a mode other than a single-occupancy vehicle, and also encourages telecommuting when feasible so as to reduce transportation sector related GHG emissions. The program s major financial incentive is a limited number of vouchers available to employees to redeem for transit rides. These are called commuter checks. As of June 2008, approximately municipal employees redeem commuter checks on a regular basis. Additionally, over the last 5 years, there has been a 200 percent increase in usage of commuter checks in the City Raimi and Associates. Redwood City General Plan Sustainability Indicators Report. August