A Probabilistic Approach to Representing and Analyzing Uncertainty in Large-Scale Complex System Models
|
|
- Gwen Dennis
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Partnership for AiR Transportation Noise and Emission Reduction An FAA/NASA/TC-sponsored Center of Excellence A Probabilistic Approach to Representing and Analyzing Uncertainty in Large-Scale Complex System Models Doug Allaire, Karen Willcox, Ian Waitz Presented by: Doug Allaire
2 This work was funded by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy Project Manager: Maryalice Locke Contact: The results presented within are the outcomes of sample problems at various stages of model development. These sample problems had different assumptions and scenarios. They are shown for illustrative purposes and should not be interpreted as final results or quoted. 2
3 Outline 1. Framing the problem 2. Real-World Application 3. Approach 4. Future Work 3
4 Framing the Problem Representing and analyzing uncertainty in large-scale, complex system models intended to support decisionmaking and policy-making processes Uncertainties in modeling are unavoidable Uncertainty should be properly represented Estimates and predictions Risk analysis Cost-benefit analysis Furthering model development Objective To establish and demonstrate the applicability of a general probabilistic approach for representing and analyzing uncertainty in large-scale complex system models. 4
5 Environmental Impacts Tools-Suite Policy and Scenarios APMT PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM BLOCK DEMAND (Consumers) Operations Fares Schedule SUPPLY & (Carriers) Fleet AEDT Airport-level Noise Tools Global Noise Assessment Airport-level Emissions Tools Global Emissions Inventories APMT BENEFITS VALUATION BLOCK Emissions Emissions Noise CLIMATE IMPACTS LOCAL AIR QUALITY IMPACTS NOISE IMPACTS EDS Technology Impact Forecasting New Vehicle Noise Design Tools Design Tools Interface Aircraft Vehicle Cost Assessmen t Vehicle Emissions Design Tools Collected Costs Emissions & Noise Monetized Benefits APMT COSTS & BENEFITS 5
6 Approach 6
7 Approach Step 1: Establish Goals Furthering model development Identify gaps in functionality that significantly impact the achievement of model requirements, leading to the identification of high-priority areas for further development. Rank inputs based on contributions output variability to inform future research. Informing decision-making Provide quantitative evaluation of model performance relative to fidelity requirements of various analysis scenarios. Provide quantitative comparisons of various policy scenarios. Properly identify and represent uncertainty in the model. 7
8 Approach Step 2 & 3: Document Assumptions/Limitations, Inputs/Outputs Documentation of Assumptions/Limitations Many assumptions Future growth scenario Discount rate Many limitations Inability to account for certain technology Inability to vary certain parameters Documentation of Inputs/Outputs Many inputs with different types and levels of uncertainty associated with them Many outputs that may be inputs to downstream models 8
9 Approach Step 4: Representing Uncertainty and Variability 9
10 Approach Step 5: Analyzing Uncertainty Probabilistic uncertainty analysis for model development Primary goal is to apportion output variability across inputs Distributional Sensitivity Analysis, Global sensitivity analysis 10
11 ANOVA-HDMR Decomposition High-Dimensional Model Representation of f(x) Example HDMR for a function of three parameters Mean value Main effects First-order interactions Second-order interaction 11
12 Approach Step 5: Analyzing Uncertainty Probabilistic uncertainty analysis for decision-making Primary goal is to compare various policy scenarios In many cases, both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties will be present Principle aim is to determine the distribution of the conditional expectation, E[Y E] Conditional expectations evaluated at specific values for inputs with epistemic uncertainty can be used to support policy-making tools 12
13 Example Results BVB-Noise Module Analysis Global Sensitivity Analysis 0.8 Total Global Sensitivity Index Housing Growth Rate Discount Rate Quiet Level Contour Uncertainty NDI Total Sensitivity Indices BVB-Climate Module Analysis Integrated Temperature Change Damage NPV Others RF* short-lived climate sensitivity Damage coefficient 13
14 Summary & Future Work Summary Representing and analyzing uncertainty in large-scale complex system models General probabilistic approach for development and decision-making Global sensitivity and distributional sensitivity analyses Future work Develop or identify a quantitatively rigorous method for computing E[Y E=e] and var(y E=e) from Monte Carlo data. Develop or identify a quantitatively rigorous method for performing distributional sensitivity analysis. Create a general mapping from how uncertainty and variability in model inputs arises, to how the uncertainty and variability should be analyzed. Develop various methods of presenting uncertainty analysis results 14
15 Questions? 15
16 References [1] U.S. FAA, October 2007, ICAO CAEP MODTF Third Meeting, CAEP/8-MODTF/2-IP/03. [2] Ayyub, B. and Klir, G. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences. Taylor & Francis group, [3] Chan, K., Saltelli, A., and Tarantola, S., Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output: Variance-Based Methods Make the Difference, Proceedings of the 1997 Winter Simulation Conference, [4] Hofer, E., Kloos, M., Kryzkacz-Hausmann, B., Peschke, J., and Woltereck, M., An Approximate Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis Approach in the Presence of Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainties, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 77, 2002, pp
17 Supplementary Slides 17
18 The Sobol Method HDMR Constraint ANOVA-HDMR Orthogonality 18
19 The Sobol Method Variance: Partial Variance: 19
20 Monte Carlo Estimates 20
21 Model Development Questions AQ1. What are the key assumptions employed within the module? How do these assumptions translate into quantifiable uncertainty in module outputs? AQ2. What are the key assumptions employed within the module databases? How do these assumptions translate into quantifiable uncertainty in module outputs? AQ3. How do assumptions/limitations in modeling and databases impact the applicability of the module for certain classes of problems? What are the implications for future development efforts? AQ4. How do uncertainties in module inputs propagate to uncertainties in module outputs? Further, what are the key inputs that contribute to variability in module outputs? AQ5. For assumptions, limitations and inputs where effects cannot be quantified, what are the expected influences (qualitatively) on module outputs AQ6. How do assessment results translate into guidelines for use? 21
22 E[Y E=e] 22
Evaluating Environmental Impacts
Partnership for AiR Transportation Noise and Emission Reduction An FAA/NASA/TC-sponsored Center of Excellence Evaluating Environmental Impacts Professor Ian A. Waitz Massachusetts Institute of Technology
More informationDevelopment Update: The FAA s Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT)
Development Update: The FAA s Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) Christopher J. Roof US DOT Volpe Center Environmental Measurement and Modeling Division September 20, 2008 AEDT Development Team
More informationAssessment of the Aviation Environmental Design Tool
Eighth USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM2009) Assessment of the Aviation Environmental Design Tool George Noel Volpe National Transportation Systems Center Cambridge,
More informationSystem Level Assessment of Uncertainty in Aviation Environmental Policy Impact Analysis. Rhea Patricia Liem
System Level Assessment of Uncertainty in Aviation Environmental Policy Impact Analysis by Rhea Patricia Liem Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements
More informationCOMMITTEE ON AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (CAEP)
International Civil Aviation Organization INFORMATION PAPER CAEP/8-IP/29 6/1/10 English only COMMITTEE ON AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (CAEP) EIGTH MEETING Montreal, 1 to 12 February 2010 Agenda Item
More informationGROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AVIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (GIACC) FOURTH MEETING
International Civil Aviation Organization INFORMATION PAPER GIACC/4-IP/12 22/5/09 English only GROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AVIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (GIACC) FOURTH MEETING Montréal, 25 to 28 May 2009 Agenda
More informationProtoype Work Plan for the Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool
Partnership for AiR Transportation Noise and Emissions Reduction An FAA/NASA/Transport Canadasponsored Center of Excellence Protoype Work Plan for the Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool prepared
More informationby Ian A. Waitz A Global Balance: AVIATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT
by Ian A. Waitz A Global Balance: AVIATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT This article first appeared in the 2005-2006 edition of Aero-Astro, the annual publication of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department
More informationCOMMITTEE ON AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (CAEP)
International Civil Aviation Organization INFORMATION PAPER CAEP/7-IP/24 25/1/07 English only COMMITTEE ON AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (CAEP) SEVENTH MEETING Montréal, 5 to 16 February 2007 Agenda
More informationCOMMITTEE ON AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (CAEP)
International Civil Aviation Organization WORKING PAPER CAEP/7-WP/52 2/2/07 English only COMMITTEE ON AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (CAEP) SEVENTH MEETING Montréal, 5 to 16 February 2007 Agenda Item
More informationGHG Trends in Aviation to 2050
GHG Trends in Aviation to 2050 Gregg G. Fleming, U.S.DOT/Volpe Center Urs Ziegler, Federal Office of Civil Aviation, Switzerland Background Each three-year work cycle the Committee on Aviation Environmental
More informationA Comparison of Two Methods for Predicting Emissions from Aircraft Gas Turbine Combustors. Doug Allaire, Ian Waitz, and Karen Willcox May 16, 2007
A Comparison of Two Methods for Predicting Emissions from Aircraft Gas Turbine Combustors Doug Allaire, Ian Waitz, and Karen Willcox May 16, 2007 1 Outline Background and Motivation Objectives Modeling
More informationGoals and Standards The ICAO Perspective
Goals and Standards The ICAO Perspective Environment Section Air Transport Bureau International Civil Aviation Organization 2 October 2009 Agenda ICAO Objective and Goals for Environment Quantification
More informationEnvironmental Trends in Aviation to 2050
Destination Green ICAO Symposium on Aviation and Climate Change, Destination Green, 14 16 May 2013 Environmental Trends in Aviation to 2050 Gregg G. Fleming, U.S.DOT/Volpe Center Urs Ziegler, Federal Office
More informationGROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AVIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (GIACC)
International Civil Aviation Organization INFORMATION PAPER GIACC/4-IP/12 22/5/09 English only GROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AVIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (GIACC) FOURTH MEETING Montréal, 25 to 27 May 2009 Agenda
More informationLife Cycle Assessment A product-oriented method for sustainability analysis. UNEP LCA Training Kit Module f Interpretation 1
Life Cycle Assessment A product-oriented method for sustainability analysis UNEP LCA Training Kit Module f Interpretation 1 ISO 14040 framework Life cycle assessment framework Goal and scope definition
More informationPublic Workshop #9. October 11, 2016
Public Workshop #9 October 11, 2016 Agenda Master Plan Status Preferred Alternative Environmental Considerations Vision 2040 Next Steps Master Plan Status Alternatives exploration and evaluation Environmental
More informationDealing with Uncertainty in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation. Dr. Marc Neumann, BC3
Dealing with Uncertainty in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Dr. Marc Neumann, BC3 a, b, Statistical distribution of mean summer temperatures at a grid point in northern Switzerland. c, Change
More informationWhat is. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ)? THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE ENGINEERING MODELLING, ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION COMMUNITY
What is Uncertainty Quantification (UQ)? THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE ENGINEERING MODELLING, ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION COMMUNITY What is Uncertainty Quantification (UQ)? Definition of Uncertainty
More informationASSEMBLY 38TH SESSION
International Civil Aviation Organization WORKING PAPER 18/07/13 Agenda Item 17: Environmental Protection ASSEMBLY 38TH SESSION EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS IN AIRCRAFT NOISE AND EMISSIONS
More informationProjecting Program Spare Parts Sustainment with Incomplete Data
Presented at the ICEAA 2017 Professional Development & Training Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com/portland2017 Projecting Program Spare Parts Sustainment with Incomplete Data Bryan Anderson George Bayer,
More informationTRENDS IN GLOBAL NOISE AND EMISSIONS FROM COMMERCIAL AVIATION FOR 2000 THROUGH 2025
26 TH INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS OF THE AERONAUTICAL SCIENCES TRENDS IN GLOBAL NOISE AND EMISSIONS FROM COMMERCIAL AVIATION FOR 2000 THROUGH 2025 Gregg Fleming, Andrew Malwitz, Sathya Balasubramanian, Chris
More informationEnvironmental Design Space Model Assessment. Phillip Michael Spindler
Environmental Design Space Model Assessment by Phillip Michael Spindler B.S. Aerospace Engineering Purdue University, 2005 Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in partial fulfillment
More informationARCHM S AUG LIBRARIES. Tudor Magek. A Response Surface Model of the Air Quality Impacts of Aviation. 'an A. Waitz
A Response Surface Model of the Air Quality Impacts of Aviation by Tudor Magek Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master
More informationFAA Office of Environment and Energy (AEE) Research Overview
FAA Office of Environment and Energy (AEE) Research Overview Presented to: ASCENT Advisory Committee Meeting By: Dr. Jim Hileman Chief Scientific & Technical Advisor for Environment and Energy Office of
More informationDelri Muller, Karen B. Marais, Payuna Uday (Purdue) R. John Hansman, Tom G. Reynolds, Jonathan Lovegren (MIT)
An FAA/NASA/TC-sponsored Center of Excellence Delri Muller, Karen B. Marais, Payuna Uday (Purdue) R. John Hansman, Tom G. Reynolds, Jonathan Lovegren (MIT) AAE Systems Day August 28, 2010 Motivation Demand
More informationSobol s sensitivity indices beyond sensitivity. Session in honour of Prof. Ilya M. Sobol' By Art Owen and Sergei Kucherenko
Eleventh International Conference on Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Scientific Computing, Leuven, April 2014 Sobol s sensitivity indices beyond sensitivity Andrea Saltelli, William Becker,
More informationQuantifying Uncertainty in Baseline Projections of CO2 Emissions for South Africa
International Energy Workshop 2015 Quantifying Uncertainty in Baseline Projections of CO2 Emissions for South Africa Bruno Merven a, Ian Durbach b, Bryce McCall a a Energy Research Centre, University of
More informationKey Criteria and Selection of Sensitivity Analysis Methods Applied to Natural Resource Models
Key Criteria and Selection of Sensitivity Analysis Methods Applied to Natural Resource Models 1 Ascough II, J.C., T.R. Green, L. Ma, and L.R. Ahjua 1 USDA-ARS, Great Plains Systems Research Unit, Fort
More informationEPA Perspectives on Aviation and Environment
EPA Perspectives on Aviation and Environment Presentation to Eco-Aviation Conference Christopher Grundler, Deputy Director Office of Transportation and Air Quality June 24, 2010 1 Office of Transportation
More informationPEAT S ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT & RISK REGISTERS: Key Features and Functions
PEAT S ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT & RISK REGISTERS: Key Features and Functions Copyright 2005-2014 Dr. Johnathan Mun. All rights reserved. Dublin, California. admin@realoptionsvaluation.com 1 PEAT s Enterprise
More informationIncorporating DSM Uncertainty and Flexibility into Integrated Resource Planning
Incorporating DSM Uncertainty and Flexibility into Integrated Resource Planning Eric W. Hildebrandt, RCG/Hagler, Bailly, Inc. Robert M. Wirtshafter, University of Pennsylvania This paper presents an approach
More informationAnalysis Environment for Safety Assessment of Launch and Re-Entry Vehicles
Analysis Environment for Safety Assessment of Launch and Re-Entry Vehicles Administration Juan J. Alonso and Francisco Capristan Department of Aeronautics & Astronautics Stanford University FAA COE for
More informationIndependently Assessed and Endorsed by NASBA, the official board that regulates accounting and financial education in the United States of America.
Independently Assessed and Endorsed by NASBA, the official board that regulates accounting and financial education in the United States of America. Program Overview How can you put data to work for you?
More informationTools for Quantifying Historical Emissions. Ted Thrasher ICAO Environmental Modelling Unit. Destination Green
Destination Green ICAO Symposium on Aviation and Climate Change, Destination Green, 14 16 May 2013 Tools for Quantifying Historical Emissions Ted Thrasher ICAO Environmental Modelling Unit Background Demand
More informationTopic title/heading. Definition
Topic title/heading 3.5.2 Risk techniques Definition No more than a few sentences required approximately 30 words. It should be succinct, and wherever possible, independent of the level of project/programme/portfolio
More informationAviation Environmental Design Tool Technical Talk
2017 AIRPORT PLANNING & NEPA WORKSHOP Aviation Environmental Design Tool Technical Talk NEPA Session 3 November 30, 2017 Clint Morrow Session Moderator KB Environmental Sciences, Inc. Panel members from:
More informationENEA, Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development Bologna, Italy
Open issues associated with passive safety systems reliability assessment L. Burgazzi ENEA, Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development Bologna, Italy Abstract.
More informationPreparing a Cost- Benefit Analysis for TEAM. Dale Dilamarter November 7, 2011
Preparing a Cost- Benefit Analysis for TEAM Dale Dilamarter November 7, 2011 Who am I? Business Advisor to TEAM Available to discuss business issues related to all TEAM projects CHEE 310 Fundamentals of
More informationOperational Goals WP/12
ICAO ICAO Colloquium Colloquium on Aviation Aviation and and Climate Climate Change Change Operational Goals WP/12 Independent Expert Operational Goals Group (IEOGG) Montreal 12-14 may 2010 Committee on
More informationBenefits of Integrating Schedule
Benefits of Integrating Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis Rafael Hartke Oil and Energy Industry Consultant About me... Rafael Hartke Education B.Sc., M.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering MBA in Finance, Investment
More informationChallenges of Strategic Supply Chain Planning and Modeling
Challenges of Strategic Supply Chain Planning and Modeling Jeremy F. Shapiro FOCAPO 2003 January 13, 2003 jshapiro@slimcorp.com Copyright 2003 by Jeremy F. Shapiro. All rights reserved. 1 Agenda 1. Introduction
More informationIn any particular situation, dealing with environmental risk involves two steps:
Presented by: Gargi Bhatt 04/27/2005 ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT Introduction: The field of Environmental statistics is one of the rapid growths at the moment. Environmental decision making is prevalent
More informationProgram Overview. Through the use of Excel, this course will teach you how to create and use financial models in your organization.
Program Overview How can you put data to work for you? Specifically, how can numbers in a spreadsheet tell us about present and past business activities, and how can we use them to forecast the future?
More informationSensitivity Analysis. Andrea Saltelli European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy. Karen Chan European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy
Sensitivity Analysis Edited by Andrea Saltelli European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy Karen Chan European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy E. Marian Scott University of Glasgow, UK JOHN
More informationGlobal Sensitivity Analysis applied to Total Energy Use in Buildings
Purdue University Purdue e-pubs International High Performance Buildings Conference School of Mechanical Engineering 2012 Global Sensitivity Analysis applied to Total Energy Use in Buildings Roberto Ruiz
More informationModeling Aviation Emissions on a Local and Global Scale
Modeling Aviation Emissions on a Local and Global Scale ICAO Colloquium on Aviation Emissions Gregg G. Fleming U.S. DOT/Volpe Center 15 May 2007 Outline Contributing organizations and models used Modeling
More informationWhat in the World. ICAO CAEP/8 (2010) New NOx stringency for 2012 or 2016 CAEP/9 Agenda New Noise Stringency? Climate Change is CAEP s priority
What in the World ICAO CAEP/8 (2010) New NOx stringency for 2012 or 2016 CAEP/9 Agenda New Noise Stringency? Climate Change is CAEP s priority ACI World Environment Standing Committee (WESC) Clinton Climate
More informationR&D Performance Management
R&D Performance Management What is in for me to drive the biotech opportunity? Gerd Grimm Reutlingen, December 2015 Agenda 1. What is R&D Performance Management? 2. A way of thinking about decisions rules
More informationProject Risk Management
Hujambo (Swahili) Project Management Process Groups Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring & Controlling Closing Project 4. Integration Management 5. Scope Knowledge Areas 6. Time 7. Cost 8. Quality
More informationEnvironmental Affairs Seminar Noise Briefing. April 15, Dan Frazee, San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Mary Ellen Eagan, HMMH
Environmental Affairs Seminar Noise Briefing April 15, 2010 Dan Frazee, San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Mary Ellen Eagan, HMMH Topics CAEP PARTNER ACRP FAA Environmental Noise Policy FAA Noise
More informationThe FORESCENE Scenario Modelling Workshop
The FORESCENE Scenario Modelling Workshop Brussels, 8 Sept. 2008 Stefan Bringezu, Mathieu Saurat Roy Haines-Young, Alison Rollett Mats Svensson Contents The FORESCENE project Short introduction to Bayesian
More informationSimulation Analytics
Simulation Analytics Powerful Techniques for Generating Additional Insights Mark Peco, CBIP mark.peco@gmail.com Objectives Basic capabilities of computer simulation Categories of simulation techniques
More informationAppendix D Benefit-Cost Analysis
Appendix D Benefit-Cost Analysis Regional Transportation Commission of Washoe County Electric Bus Initiative TIGER Discretionary Grant Program Benefit-Cost Analysis Supplementary Documentation April 29,
More informationJohn Salmon, PhD, Assistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering, Brigham Young University
An Overview of a JMP Decision Support System for Technology Assessment and Advanced Concepts Analysis for NASA s Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project John Salmon, PhD, Assistant Professor of Mechanical
More informationGROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AVIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (GIACC)
International Civil Aviation Organization WORKING PAPER GIACC/3-WP/2 2/02/09 GROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AVIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (GIACC) THIRD MEETING Montréal, 17 to 19 February 2009 Agenda Item 3: Planning
More informationSelection and Deployment of a Standard COTS Monte Carlo Software Tool November 18, 2009
Selection and Deployment of a Standard COTS Monte Carlo Software Tool November 18, 2009 Presenter: Fred Oleson (Systems Engineering) Contributors: Carole Doan, Debra Buswell BAE Systems, USCS: 1 Agenda
More informationERCOT Public LTRA Probabilistic Reliability Assessment. Final Report
ERCOT Public 2016 LTRA Probabilistic Reliability Assessment Final Report November 21, 2016 Contents Summary... 1 Software Model Description... 3 Demand Modeling... 3 Controllable Capacity Demand Response
More informationLife cycle cost and environmental assessment research at MIT s Concrete Sustainability Hub
Spring TTCC/National Concrete Consortium, April 2-4, 2013 Life cycle cost and environmental assessment research at MIT s Concrete Sustainability Hub Jeremy Gregory Governments are being forced to do more
More informationBayesian Uncertainty Quantification in SPARROW Models Richard B. Alexander
Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in SPARROW Models Richard B. Alexander National Water Quality Assessment Project U.S. Geological Survey Reston, VA Chesapeake Bay STAC, Assessing Uncertainty Workshop,
More informationA METHODOLOGY TO ENABLE RAPID EVALUATION OF AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGIES. A Dissertation Presented to The Academic Faculty
A METHODOLOGY TO ENABLE RAPID EVALUATION OF AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGIES A Dissertation Presented to The Academic Faculty By Keith Frederick Becker In Partial Fulfillment Of
More informationPh.D. Defense: Resource Allocation Optimization in the Smart Grid and High-performance Computing Tim Hansen
Ph.D. Defense: Resource Allocation Optimization in the Smart Grid and High-performance Computing Tim Hansen Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado,
More informationIMPLEMENTATION OF A PHYSICS-BASED DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF THE MULTI- DISCIPLINARY AIRCRAFT UNCERTAINTY
2003-01-3055 IMPLEMENTATION OF A PHYSICS-BASED DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF THE MULTI- DISCIPLINARY AIRCRAFT UNCERTAINTY Simon I. Briceno Graduate Research Assistant, Aerospace Systems Design
More informationMIT SCALE RESEARCH REPORT
MIT SCALE RESEARCH REPORT The MIT Global Supply Chain and Logistics Excellence (SCALE) Network is an international alliance of leading-edge research and education centers, dedicated to the development
More informationModeling US Energy Futures Under Uncertainty
Modeling US Energy Futures Under Uncertainty Joe DeCarolis Associate Professor and University Faculty Scholar Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering NC State University jdecarolis@ncsu.edu;
More informationGlobal Supply Chain Planning under Demand and Freight Rate Uncertainty
Global Supply Chain Planning under Demand and Freight Rate Uncertainty Fengqi You Ignacio E. Grossmann Nov. 13, 2007 Sponsored by The Dow Chemical Company (John Wassick) Page 1 Introduction Motivation
More informationFUNDAMENTALS OF INVENTORY MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL
FUNDAMENTALS OF INVENTORY MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS OF INVENTORY MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL SECOND EDITION RICHARD E. WARD CONTENTS ABOUT THIS COURSE xi HOW TO TAKE THIS COURSE xiii PART I CONTROL
More informationTOOL #62. THE USE OF ANALYTICAL MODELS AND METHODS
TOOL #62. THE USE OF ANALYTICAL MODELS AND METHODS 1. INTRODUCTION Models provide a framework to analyse and investigate the impacts of policy options ex ante (IA), or also ex post (retrospective evaluations.
More informationProbabilistic Methodology For Life Prediction of Aircraft Turbine Rotors
Probabilistic Methodology For Life Prediction of Aircraft Turbine Rotors Abstract M. P. Enright 1, L. Huyse 2, R. C. McClung 3, and H.R. Millwater 4 The presence of rare metallurgical or manufacturing
More informationA Model for Life-Cycle Benefit and Cost Analysis of Highway Projects
Technical Paper ISSN 1997-1400 Int. J. Pavement Res. Technol. 6(5):633-642 Copyright @ Chinese Society of Pavement Engineering A Model for Life-Cycle Benefit and Cost Analysis of Highway Projects Yi Jiang
More informationApplication of Fuzzy Logic Approach to Consequence Modeling in Process Industries
157 A publication of CHEMICAL ENGINEERING TRANSACTIONS VOL. 31, 2013 Guest Editors: Eddy De Rademaeker, Bruno Fabiano, Simberto Senni Buratti Copyright 2013, AIDIC Servizi S.r.l., ISBN 978-88-95608-22-8;
More informationSimulation and Modeling - Introduction
Simulation and Modeling November 2, 2015 Vandana Srivastava Simulation imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time first requires that a model be developed model represents the
More informationGuidance for Modeling Noise for Non-Standard Aircraft Profiles
ACRP Problem Statement No. 14-02-34 Recommended Allocation: $300,000 Guidance for Modeling Noise for Non-Standard Aircraft Profiles ACRP Staff Comments: Several ACRP studies are focused on enhancing the
More informationRisk-Lab. Portable Monte-Carlo Simulation of MS Excel models RISK-LAB
Portable Monte-Carlo Simulation of MS Excel models RISK-LAB mail@risk-o.com www.risk-lab.com System overview Connectivity can run Monte-Carlo simulations of any model designed in MS Excel. It does not
More informationOverview of. Aviation Air Quality and Climate Impacts. Federal Aviation Administration
Overview of Aviation Air Quality and Climate Impacts Presented to: Aviation and the Environment: A Primer for North American Stakeholders By: Dr. Lourdes Maurice Chief Scientific and Technical Advisor
More informationA single platform. Your many investment ideas. Comprehensive Alpha Research and Portfolio Management Platform
A single platform. Your many investment ideas. Comprehensive Alpha Research and Portfolio Management Platform ClariFI, our alpha research and portfolio management platform, provides powerful analytics
More informationMarket-based Valuation of Coal Generation and Coal R&D in the U.S. Electric Sector
Market-based Valuation of Coal Generation and Coal R&D in the U.S. Electric Sector 1006954 Final Report, May 2002 EPRI Project Manager Jeremy Platt Tel: 650-855-2000 Cosponsor LCG Consulting 4062 El Camino
More informationUnited States Army Corps of Engineers. Calculating Economics: What Kind of Science? SWG Summer Stakeholder Partnering Forum
United States Army Corps of Engineers Calculating Economics: What Kind of Science? SWG Summer Stakeholder Partnering Forum Katie Williams Planning Program Manager PRICE SWD Regional Integration Team HQ
More informationLand Use Analysis. Introduction. Methodology. Existing Land Use Analysis/Existing Noise Contours, 2004
DETROIT METROPOLITAN WAYNE COUNTY AIRPORT FAR PART 150 NOISE COMPATIBILITY STUDY UPDATE CHAPTER E LAND USE ANALYSIS Analysis Introduction This section of the FAR Part 150 Noise Compatibility Study for
More informationResidual Skills Courses. ProBeta Training (Pty) Ltd. Page 1
Residual Skills Courses 2016 ProBeta Training (Pty) Ltd. Page 1 BUSINESS VALUATIONS DEMONSTRATED ABILITIES Overall content Course overview Who should attend? Special arrangements While the valuation of
More informationWestinghouse Waste Simulation and Optimization Software Tool 13493
Westinghouse Waste Simulation and Optimization Software Tool 13493 Kim Mennicken* and Dr. Jörg Aign** *Westinghouse Electric Germany GmbH, Global Waste Management, Dudenstraße 44, D- 68167 Mannheim, Germany,
More informationNAS-Wide Performance: Impact of Select Uncertainty Factors and Implications for Experimental Design
Approved for Public Release: 12-0370. Distribution Unlimited. NAS-Wide Performance: Impact of Select Uncertainty Factors and Implications for Experimental Design Gareth O. Coville, MITRE Corporation Billy
More informationStevens Institute of Technology & Systems Engineering Research Center (SERC)
Stevens Institute of Technology & Systems Engineering Research Center (SERC) Modeling an Acquisition Decision-Making Process for the FAA NextGen Systems of Systems Presented to: NDIA 2012 By: Dr. Mark
More informationPortfolio Management at Bayer Pharmaceuticals. Matthias Gottwald Head R&D Policy and Networks Bayer HealthCare
Portfolio Management at Bayer Pharmaceuticals Matthias Gottwald Head R&D Policy and Networks Bayer HealthCare September 24, 2015 Agenda Project Management Portfolio Management Page 2 CEMDC 2015 Project
More informationAVIATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: WHICH WAY FORWARD?
AVIATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT: WHICH WAY FORWARD? By Steven R.H. Barrett and Ian A. Waitz To achieve the right balance of options for mitigating aviation s environmental impacts be these options technological,
More informationUncertainty Analysis in Emission Inventories
Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Uncertainty Analysis in Emission Inventories Africa Regional Workshop on the Building of Sustainable National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Management Systems,
More informationRiskyProject. Project Risk Management Software
Project Risk Management Software Intaver Institute Inc. 303, 6707, Elbow Drive S.W, Calgary, AB, Canada Tel: +1 (403) 692-2252 Fax: +1 (403) 459-4533 www.intaver.com RiskyProject 1 Project Scheduling Risk
More informationSobol s Method and the DICE Model
Sobol s Method and the DICE Model Patrick M. Reed Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Pennsylvania State University Email: preed@engr.psu.edu Web: http://water.engr.psu.edu/reed/home.htm
More informationThe importance of incorporating uncertainty into pavement life cycle cost and environmental impact analyses
The importance of incorporating uncertainty into pavement life cycle cost and environmental impact analyses Jeremy Gregory 1, Arash Noshadravan 2, Omar Swei 1, Xin Xu 1, Randolph Kirchain 1 1 Massachusetts
More informationA Simulation-Based Vehicle Design Strategy for Acquisition and Requirements Validation
04ANNUAL-807 A Simulation-Based Vehicle Design Strategy for Acquisition and Requirements Validation Adam B. Cooper, Panayiotis Georgiopoulos, Jeremy J. Michalek, Panos Y. Papalambros University of Michigan
More informationCONFERENCE ON AVIATION AND ALTERNATIVE FUELS
CAAF/2-SD/3 13/10/17 CONFERENCE ON AVIATION AND ALTERNATIVE FUELS Mexico City, Mexico, 11 to 13 October 2017 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE THIRD MEETING 1. AGENDA ITEM 4: DEFINING
More informationICAO Technology Goals Process for Aviation Environmental Protection
ICAO ICAO Colloquium Colloquium on Aviation Aviation and and Climate Climate Change Change ICAO Technology Goals Process for Aviation Environmental Protection Ebad Jahangir, Ph.D. Environment Officer International
More informationNo Longer at a Loss for Words
No Longer at a Loss for Words Christopher G. Irwin DOE Office of Electricity Delivery & Energy Reliability 2017 Transactive Energy Systems Conference June 13, 2017 Pillars of our Community 2 and yet, here
More informationTHE U.S. STRATEGY FOR TACKLING AVIATION CLIMATE IMPACTS
27 TH INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS OF THE AERONAUTICAL SCIENCES THE U.S. STRATEGY FOR TACKLING AVIATION CLIMATE IMPACTS Nathan Brown, Mohan Gupta, Rhett Jefferies, Lourdes Maurice Office of Environment and Energy,
More informationModels in Engineering Glossary
Models in Engineering Glossary Anchoring bias is the tendency to use an initial piece of information to make subsequent judgments. Once an anchor is set, there is a bias toward interpreting other information
More informationEastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study
Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study NPCC Governmental/Regulatory Affairs Advisory Group February 23rd, 2010 Dave Corbus National Renewable Energy Lab 1 What is Needed to Integrate 20% Wind
More informationAviation and Climate Change. Ted Thrasher ICAO Environment Branch UTIAS-MITACS International Workshop on. 27 May 2010
ICAO s Activities on International Aviation and Climate Change Ted Thrasher ICAO Environment Branch UTIAS-MITACS International Workshop on Aviation and Climate Change 27 May 2010 Overview Introduction
More informationand the Value of Flexibility Generation of IRP Addressing Uncertainty in the Second Introduction Maximizing the Benefits of an IRP Process
Addressing Uncertainty in the Second and the Value of Flexibility Generation of IRP Daniel M. Violette and Linda K. Olsson, XENERGY Inc. A second generation of IRP efforts will increasingly focus on uncertainty
More informationPractical and Technical Challenges in Verification and Validation
Practical and Technical Challenges in Verification and Validation William L. Oberkampf, PhD Sandia National Laboratories (retired) Consulting Engineer Austin, Texas wloconsulting@gmail.com American Society
More informationThe 10-Day Advanced Financial Modelling & Petroleum Project Economics
An Intensive 2-Week Training Course The 10-Day Advanced Financial Modelling & Petroleum Project Economics 16-APR-17 29 Oct - 09 Nov 2017, Dubai This course is Designed, Developed, and will be Delivered
More information