New Thinking about Jobs. Presentation at UN Public Service Forum, 22 June 2017, The Hague Luc Christiaensen, Lead Economist, Jobs Group, World Bank

Transcription

1 New Thinking about Jobs Presentation at UN Public Service Forum, 22 June 2017, The Hague Luc Christiaensen, Lead Economist, Jobs Group, World Bank

2 Often the problem is not so much the QUANTITY of jobs, but the QUALITY and DISTRIBUTION. Formal Wage Employment, [VALUE] Self Employment, [VALUE] Informal Wage Employment, [VALUE] Different groups w/different social externalities (youth, gender, regions) participate to different degrees

3 JOBS, not Growth strategies ACCESS Information Skills Mobility Incentives CREATION Firm entry & growth Less churning JOBS STRATEGIES QUALITY Productivity Earnings Working conditions Access to social insurance

4 Integrate labor supply and demand interventions Most (youth) employment programs focus on employability; meta-analysis of interventions shows limited success even programs that worked have limited impact SUPPLY-SIDE COUNSELING BUILDING SKILLS INCENTIVES TO ACTIVATE YOUTH INTO WORK WAGE SUBSIDIES JOB SEARCH ASSISTANCE ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEMAND SIDE TARGETED INTERVENTIONS AIMED AT ADDRESSING CONSTRAINTS OF FIRMS/FARMS TARGETED SECTOR- SPECIFIC APPROACHES VALUE CHAIN APPROACHES AGGREGATOR MODELS LEAD FIRM-SME LINKAGE FINANCING TO SMEs ETC. Address the fundamentals From employability to employment, working closely with the private sector

5 Pay more attention to sectoral/regional policies The idea is not to "pick winners" and indiscriminately subsidize/protect certain economic sub-sectors/activities or regions Secondary towns can play an important role Zambia better jobs often not where the poor are Distance matters - migration histories from Kagera, Tanzania

6 Better jobs are often distant from the poor Zambia P O O R P O O R P O O R P O O R P O O R J O B S

7 Town migrants contribute more to poverty reduction than migrants to cities, b/c they are many more 2010 location Migrants only N Poverty headcount Change in Poverty gap Share in poverty gap change Rural Town City Total Larger size outweighed smaller intensity. Source: Christiaensen, Deweerdt, Todo, 2013

8 Try, test and tailor - S4YE Phase II: emphasis on piloting and learning for adaptation & scaling S4YE 5-Year Strategy INNOVATION Impact Portfolio KNOWLEDGE, LEARNING & COMMS Annual Reports / Thematic Reports 2 nd Gen Youth Employment Programs Digital Jobs Briefs Communications, advocacy and engagement Knowledge Platform Gender Youth Participation Private Sector

9 Women in Online Work Pilot Kosovo (11/ /2016)

10 Outcomes following training+post training (6&3 mo) Successful in imparting skills (basic) web programming (largest gain), freelance & soft skills Earnings: 50 % participants no earnings 20% >= 100US $ (vs 66%); 10% >= 500 US$ Active graduates (67) most successful LT participants (>3months training)(114) Graduates (Full 6 month training) (100) Active graduates (Full 6 mont training + active engagement) (67) Share (%) online job earnings no earnings >= 100$ earnings >=500 $ earnings

11 US$ Sustainability? The jury is till out. Total earnings online jobs per month dropped after training, but slightly higher earnings/job ,850 1,784 2,380 5,979 2,533 1, Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov All Grads Post training 933 Cost/benefit Total earnings (March-Nov): US$ 20,423 (of which 19,610 by active graduates) Earnings/participant US$ 179 Earnings/active US$ 292 Total cost: Training: US$ 88,526 Overhead: US$217,557 (contractual services, consultants time, program administration, travel) Training cost per participant vs earnings per participant TOO EARLY TO JUDGE

12 TUNISIA NEW INTEGRATED JOBS PROJECT NEW INTEGRATED JOBS PROJECT: Connects vulnerable youth to jobs Promotes investments and job creation in value EMPLOYMENT GROWTH < LF GROWTH YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT >25% FEMALE PARTICIPATION < 30% 70% OF JOBS CREATED IN INFORMAL/LOW PRODUCTIVITY ACTIVITIES MAJOR REGIONAL DISPARITIES

13 Example: Integrated Jobs Operation in Tunisia Performance: private sector contracting and incentives Component 1: Supply side Objective: - Training and facilitation to labor market entry - Salaried/wage employment or self-employment Component 2: Demand side Objective: to create job opportunities for youth by supporting investment in high-potential value chains and fostering entrepreneurship. Outreach and awareness Expression of interest Scoring and selection Enrollment and profiling Connection to jobs tailored support Support to high-potential value chains (VC): Mapping production (data collection and PPD forums), Identifying investment opportunities, Auctioning matching grants. Entrepreneurship: support for micro, small and medium enterprises (matching grants and capacity building) with priority to firms in high-potential value chains. Beneficiaries: Tunisian citizens, aged 18-35, residents in seven selected governorates; with priority to the most vulnerable. Component 3: Project Management and Monitoring Emphasis on capacity building and communication with stakeholders Web-portal to communicate with beneficiaries, track progress of beneficiaries, to collect data, and to ensure a transparent administration of the interventions Robust impact evaluation in line with the Results Framework: Learning from Doing

14 Conclusion From Growth to Jobs strategies (Jobs Diagnostics, Jobs Strategies, Jobs lending) From Employability to Employment (integrate supply and demand side interventions) From doing to learning while doing (pilots) From labor specialists to multi-sectoral staffing: World Bank Jobs Group - cross cutting solutions area with staff recruited from across the different sectors in the World Bank