A Transportation Research Board SHRP 2 Symposium

Transcription

1 Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute, North Dakota State University EunSu Lee, Ph.D., GISP, CPIM, CSCP, Associate Research Fellow (Presenter) Alan Dybing, Ph.D., Associate Research Fellow Denver Tolliver, Ph.D., Director of the Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute A Transportation Research Board SHRP 2 Symposium October 21-22, Herndon, Virginia

2 Funnel of State-wide Transportation Energy Agricult ure Quick Reference Freight Manual II Trade Passenger Throug h Logisti cs Manufa cturing SHRP 2 - Freight Best Practices Transportation Planning

3 The second largest oil producing state since April 2012; following Texas Production 728,060 bopd in the state (bopd: barrels per day) 10,086 wells capable of producing oil and gas Item Number of Trucks Inbound or Outbound Sand 100 Inbound Water (fresh) 450 Inbound Water (waste) 225 Outbound Fracturing tanks 115 Both Scoria/gravel 80 Inbound Rig equipment 65 Both Drilling mud 50 Inbound Chemical 5 Inbound Cement 20 Inbound Pipe 15 Inbound Fuel trucks 7 Inbound Frac/cement pumper trucks 15 Inbound Workover rigs 3 Both Total trucks 2,300

4 Oil Production (Million Barrels) Production Rate and Drilling Rig North Dakota Petroleum Council (2011; 2013) Average 821,415 BOPD in June 2013 Oil Productioin Rigs Number of rigs Year

5 Leading in spring wheat, durum wheat, sunflower, barley, dry edible beans, canola and flaxseed (NASS 2010) Market value (NASA 2009) Agricultural goods exceeds $5.5 billion Wheat ($1822 million) Soybeans ($1074 million) Corn ($708 million)

6 Grain Elevators Change in Land Use Shuttle-train Program: reduced rail rate 240,640 Seed, Production Technology, Management Practices 74,600

7 The Past The Present Ndfutravel.wordpress.com

8 Capabilities of local roads to support agricultural logistics Facing of increased traffic loads and rising construction costs Quantifying investment and maintenance needs of county and local roads By integrating systems of prediction of oil-related truck movements, and roadway investment, and maintenance needs For individual road segments Needs of spatial analysis and freight traffic modeling to develop the integrated models Sound and Concrete Life-cycle Cost Models Economical Social Environment al Lack of efficient transportation infrastructure Overloaded Road Maintenance Road congestion Safety Security Dust and air quality Noise Water quality

9 To support the long-range transportation planning (i.e. 20 years) To quantify freight flows for commodities and related activities To estimate traffic volume and investments To utilize transshipment models to predict flows

10 Fixing GIS base network Trip Generations Drilling Location Choice Model Raster Image Cropland Analysis Trip Distribution Mode choice Trip Assignment Validation of the Base-Model Traffic Counter Set-up and Collecting Cost Analysis Pavement Survey Maintenance Costs Survey 20-years Projection GIS Freight Demand Model Life-Cycle Cost Model Projection

11 Routable Road Networks Connectivity Radius: 0.35 mile miles Subdivision Physical direction Radius: 1 mile Barge Facility Waterway Roads Railroads Radius Distance Closest Distance Gore points Topology direction Access Points Intersections Turn lanes Median crossover Railroad crossings

12 Oil Transportation Oil Spacing Units (7117) Agricultural Transportation Crop Production Zones (1406) Logistics Facilities Miles 2 Subdivision (U.S. Census Bureau TIGER ) Logistics Facilities 1 mile X 2 miles (1280 Acres) (ND Gas & Oil Division) Elevators (ND Wheat Commission) Processing centers

13 Oil Transportation Freshwater locations (ND State Water Commission) Sand Locations (NDDOT & industry) Transload facilities (NDDOT & industry) Rail Pipe Supplies (ND Oil & Gas, NDDOT, & industry) Agricultural Transportation Elevators (UGPTI and NDPSC licensed elevators) Fertilizer (i.e. shuttle elevators) Ethanol Plants Processing centers Malting

14 Drilling Locations Crop Production NASS Cropland Data Layer (USDA, 2009) Factors Calibration Logit-based Maximum Likelihood Method 2011 County Production s I p sc p I sc H p c Y p c p I sc = Acres planted of crop p in 2009 at subdivision s in county c p H c = Acres harvested of crop p in 2009 at in county c in total p Y c = Yield rate per acre of crop p in 2009 in county c

15 ND Oil and Gas ArcIMS Viewer

16 Rigs Total Wells 1 mile Oil Production Predicted (North Dakota Department of Commerce) North Dakota Rigs and Wells 2 miles Spacing Unit: 1280 Acres Wells, ,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Phase I Drilling: Hold Leases Phase II Drilling: Fill in remaining 4-6 Wells for Completion Alan Dybing (2013), Dissertation ,000 15, Rigs, 32 10,000 5, Year YEAR 5 i WELLFRQ WDEPNEAR NEARWELL i i YEAR 4 WELLFRQ i i YEAR 3 i i YEAR 2 WELLFRQ15 NEARTRUST ZONEDENS i i i YEAR 1 AREAMILE i i AQUA i 6 PIPENEAR ASSESUNIT i i James Mason (Oil & Gas Journal, April 2012)

17 Oil-related Activities Crop Flows Subdivision 1 Shuttle Elevators POE: Trade Subdivision 2 Domestic Market Subdivision 3 Elevators Processing Centers Rail Trucking n m o Minimize c ij x ijk n i=1 j=1 k=1 o 2 i=1 k=1 x ijk = D j for j = Township m o 3 x ijk S i for i = Sand, Freshwater, Supplies, Pipe, Gravel, Equipment j=1 k=1 n o 4 x ijk U j for j = Oil Collection, SWD i=1 k=1 5 x ijk are non negative integers for all i, j, k Minimize m m n o i=1 j=1 k=1 o m p o c ij x ijk + c iq x iqk + c qj x qjk p i=1 q=1 k=1 o p n o q=1 j=1 k=1 2 i=1 k=1 x ijk NT k + q=1 k=1 x qjk NT k = D j j 1,, n p n 3 i=1 x ijk NT k + q=1 x iqk NT k S ik j 1,, n k 1,, o m o n o i=0 k=1 = k=1 x qjk 4 x iqk j=0 q 1,, p 5 x kji, x iqk, andx qjk are non negative integers for all i, j, k

18 Throughput-based Capacity Constraints Examples Commodity O-D Pairs Origin Constrained Destination Constrained Doubly Constrained Sand Rail Drill V BNSF Pipe Rail Drill V BNSF Water Fresh Water Drill V - Water Salt Well Salt Water Disposal Site V - Data Sources Oil Well Rail V ND Pipe Authority Oil Well Pipe V ND Pipe Authority Fertilizer Shuttle Subdivision V ND Public Commission Crop Subdivision - Elevator V ND Public Commission Crop Subdivision Processing Center V ND Public Commission

19 May 2013 Barrels Per Day Millions May 2012 Transportation Capacity and Mode Choice Transportation System Capacity Rail Pipeline 100% 80% 5% 45% Crude Gathering 11% 22% % 40% 20% 95% 55% 89% 78% 0.2 0% Year Truck Pipeline 100% 80% 25% 41% 30% 39% 60% 40% 20% 75% 59% 70% 61% 0% Data Sources: ND Pipe Authority

20 Segment Level Capacity Constrained Assigning Load Factor to Truck configuration Converting Trucks to EASL Distribute trips to facilities (% for facilities) by crops Tractorsemitrailer with pup (7 axles) 4% % of Inbound Volume Others 4% Single unit three-axle (with tandem axle) 25% Elevators Shuttle elevators Processing centers Assigning path trips to network Summarize segment traffic Five-axle tractorsemitrailer 55% Single unit four-axle 9with tridem axle) 12% Statewide Survey

21 Segment Level Capacity Constrained Gravel/unpaved 5 ADT 5 5 Paved Gravel Gravel Generating Sample Inbound Movements Routes Using Network Analyst

22 Traffic Data Collection Objective Collect traffic volume and classification data on county and township roads for the calibration of travel demand models and ESAL (equivalent single axle load)calculations Data collection Joint collection with NDDOT staff and NDSU students Traffic data processing Use automatic traffic recorders from around state to factor data Use classification data to factor volume counts Input all traffic data into travel demand model Traffic data reporting Specific count location data will be made available with an interactive map on the Web

23 Traffic Data Collection Data Transparency: On-line mapping Number of counts to be taken : Number of classification counts : 670

24 Data Collection Survey of counties and townships study: 51 county & 230 township responses Current study: All counties and townships are being surveyed Assistance being provided by Association of Counties & Township Officers Association

25 Quantitative roadway condition assessment roadway structural data jurisdiction/ownership Indian Reservation Roads (IRR) Non-IRR routes maintained by the tribes Municipal Forest Service Air Force Other federal roads Scenic routes Wildlife/conservation routes

26 Pavement Data Collection Objective Collect pavement distress, ride, strength and geometric information on paved county roads to determine remaining life and projected construction costs Conditions Data Collection Collect data with NDDOT pathway van 5,600 miles of paved county roads Will not collect short segments Van will provide consistent pavement distress and ride information

27 Pavement Data Collection Non-Destructive Testing: Verifying prior estimates on subgrade strength Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) Western ND all pavements not recently improved Eastern ND selected based on agricultural production facilities and other major traffic generators FWD will be done first and GPR will be done on the sites thumped with FWD

28 Gravel Road Analysis Graveling and Blading Intermediate Improvements Graveling and base stabilization Asphalt Surface Normal levels (e.g. re-graveling every 5 years, blade once per month) Increased levels (e.g. regraveling every 3-4 years, blade twice per month) High levels (e.g. re-graveling every 2-3 years, blade once per week) Usage of dust suppressant on impacted roads Graveling and base stabilization with armor coat Others as reported at the county level Maintenance type/improvement selected for each AADT (annual average daily traffic) class based upon minimum life cycle cost

29 Pavement Analysis Pavement deterioration and recommended improvement process Estimate remaining life given current condition and traffic levels Verify past assumptions on subgrade strength Apply traffic projections and present serviceability rating Determine recommended improvements and costs based on width, starting condition, and future traffic estimates

30 Projected AADT for 2014~2032 by 2 years Legend 15,000 AADT_14 AADT_16 AADT_18 AADT_20 AADT_22 AADT_24 AADT_26 AADT_28 AADT_30 AADT_32

31 factors Estimated Funding Required for the Periods Average Daily Trips (ADT) Average Daily Truck Trips (ADTT) Truck Type and Axle Configuration Structural Number (SN) Decision Logic Cumulative ESALs Existing Pavement Structure

32

33 Will be applied for Providing decision information to the state legislators Supporting the state and county transportation planners as well as Tribal Transportation Planners Supporting energy and agricultural logistics Identifying critical rural freight corridors (CRFC) for the MAP-21 Analyzing Bridge Needs

34 Needs of asset managements of the local roads as well as major highways Data consistency between agencies Quality of the base data Less connected / Too much connected Project management with integrated systems approach

35 To analyze driver-behavior analysis for truck movements To apply load restrictions and roads restricted To adopt net profit model considering transportation costs and price competition To apply travel-based model for manufacturing and logistics systems To updating costs information (Dynamic) To develop scenarios using a planning software tool to increase flexibility of modeling

36

37 EunSu Lee, Associate Research Fellow Contact Information (mobile) (office) Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute, North Dakota State University