Long Range Transportation Planning to Deal with Oil Boom: Dynamic Oil Trip Generation

Transcription

1 1 Long Range Transportation Planning to Deal with Oil Boom: Dynamic Oil Trip Generation EunSu Lee, GISP Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND GIS-T Symposium Boise, Idaho May 8, 2013

2 2 AGENDA Oil boom Spatial Analysis Estimating Drilling Locations Traffic Assignment Model Conclusions and Further Study

3 3 Long-Range Transportation Planning Needs in good repair of the roads Community impact from the traffic Dust Noise Safety Congestions Alternative modes Investments on highways, bridges, and facilities Demand and supply

4 4 Long-Range Transportation Planning Freight Passenger Through Oil Develo pment Wholesale and Retailer Agricultural Logistics Manufacturing Through Traffic Types Activity Groups

5 5 Needs To predict traffic generated by oil development and related activities To determine priority on investments considering Cost-benefit Safety Environments Dynamic trip generation for long-term (20 years)

6 6 Transportation Systems Modeling 101 TAZ Time window Origin and Destinations Trip generators Trip attractors Trip between origin-destination Traffic Assignment Model (4 phases) Trips generation Trips distribution Mode split Trip assignment

7 7 Traffic Analysis Zone Spacing Unit for Public Lands One mile by two miles 1280 acre spacing units From Oil and Gas Division Private Lands

8 8 Dynamic process Searching Locating Fracturing Producing Drilling Workover Trip Generation Trip Generation Trip Generation Trip Generation

9 9 Oil Related Activities Activity-Based Modeling Inbound Outbound

10 10 Oil and Rig Facts Crude Oil Production (Million Barrels) Crude Oil Production Drilling Rig count barrels oil per day in 2011 in North Dakota 182 rigs in oil producing counties 35% Year 0 Note: Daily average number of drilling rigs on the right x-axis and crude oil productions in million barrels on the left x- axis. Sources: North Dakota Petroleum Council (2011; 2012)

11 11 How many wells? Forecasting County Level Number of wells Number of rigs

12 12 Production Rate County average initial production (IP) rate Stiff decline after two years Mostly in four years Maybe in 6 years Average drilling per well per day January in bopd January in bopd January in bopd

13 13 Oil related truck movements O-D Pairs Sand Rig Freshwater Rig Rig Rig Supplies Rig Rig SWD Rig Collecting Points Item # of Trucks Direction Sand 100 Inbound Water (Fresh) 450 Inbound Water (Waster) 225 Outbound Frac Tanks 115 Both Rig Equipment 65 Both Drilling Mud 50 Inbound Chemical 5 Inbound Cement 20 Inbound Pipe 15 Inbound Scoria/Gravel 80 Inbound Fuel Truck 7 Inbound Trac/Cement Pumper Trucks 15 Inbound Workover Rigs 3 Both Total One Direction 1150 Total Truck Trips 2300

14 14 Pattern of the rigs Active Drilling Rigs

15 15 Spatial Distribution

16 16 Factors considered USGS Oil Assessment ASSESSUNIT i Barrel = z n i = 1 Barrael Distance from pipe loading sites PIPEDIST i = i z Barrael ( x x ) + ( y y ) 2 i q 2 i q i z

17 17 Distance from the closest water depot WATERDEPDIST Area density Neighboring units i = AREADEN = } j i F d 0 ={5,10,15 ( x x ) + ( y y ) 2 i w 2 i w (a) (b) (c) (d)

18 18 Oil wells aging HISTORY i, yyyy k = 1,if a spacing unit has wells drilled 0, otherwise AGING i, yyyy ( α Wi, yyyy k Wk ) = 5 k= 1 k: maximum years 5 years

19 19 validation Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) Base model: 2011 E = dddddddd dddddddddd NNNNNN oo rrrr

20 20 Results and Visualization 2015

21 21 Results and Visualization 2020

22 22 Results and Visualization 2025

23 23 Results and Visualization 2032

24 24 Results and Visualization

25 25 CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FURTHER STUDY Views of Systems Sustainable Social Economic Environmental Efficient Budget Effective Useful and helpful Views of Spatial Analysis Understandable Acceptable from the planners: elements Sound methodology: ABM Efficiency for decision making Cost Time Effectiveness with high quality Precise Accuracy

26 New Assessment 26

27 27 Other factors to consider Salt water disposal Ratio 2 barrels of salt water from one barrel of oil ( Freshwater need Ratio 3-5 barrels of fresh water for one barrel of oil ( Multimodal transportation New refinery Pipeline investment Environmental regulations

28 28 References Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute, An Assessment of County and Local Road Infrastructure Needs in North Dakota. Accessed on May 6, North Dakota Department of Mineral Resouces, Oil and Gas: Arc IMSViewer, Oil and Gas Division, Bismarck, ND

29 29 Questions and Comments EunSu Lee, Ph.D., GISP Associate Research Fellow, Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute Adjunct Faculty, Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering North Dakota State University Office: Mobile: