Distributed Solar Generation Update

Transcription

1 Distributed Solar Generation Update Load Analysis Subcommittee November 15, 2017

2 Topics Review of Process to incorporate Distributed Solar Generation into the Long-Term Forecast Identical process to last year State to Zone Allocations Capacity at Peak Next Steps 2

3 Process Review PJM uses a two-step approach to address distributed solar generation in the load forecast. Step 1: To account for the historical impacts of distributed solar generation, PJM back-casts hourly values by zone. These estimates are then added to the unrestricted load used in PJM load models. Step 2: For forecasted values of distributed solar capacity, PJM contracts with IHS Energy to develop a distributed solar generation forecast specific to the PJM region. PJM then uses the state-level forecast to derive a zonal capacity at peak. Those values are then subtracted from the forecast created with solar addbacks. IHS 2018 Distributed Solar Generation slides under the LAS meeting: 3

4 RTO Forecast Illustrating the Two-Step Approach PJM RTO Summer Peak Process Review 4

5 Historical GATS Installations Historical Nameplate Capacity of Distributed Solar Generation (MW) Note: All years except for 2017 are based on calendar year, 2017 is through 8/31/2017 5

6 IHS Forecast Scenarios IHS produces three scenarios; PJM will use Scenario 2 NEM Reform in the 2018 Load Forecast Calendar year additions Entire PJM States Both Transmission and BTM solar Capacity additions Q3 to Q3 additions PJM Region of states Only BTM solar Capacity additions with degradation 6

7 IHS Forecast Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by State IHS Scenario 2 NEM Reform PJM Region Only Annual Additions of Nameplate Capacity 7

8 Comparison of Forecasts Distributed Solar Generation Forecast of Additions by State Comparison of 2017 and 2018 Forecast 8

9 Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone Cumulative Additions of Nameplate Capacity IHS Forecast 9

10 Consideration of Historical Installations Distributed Solar Generation of Historical Values by Zone Cumulative Nameplate Capacity 10

11 Historical and IHS Nameplate Capacity Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone Cumulative Nameplate Capacity Includes Historical Degraded Values and IHS Forecast 11

12 Forecast Comparison Comparison of Last Year s Distributed Solar Generation Forecast to 2017 Installations 12

13 Capacity Factors Capacity Factors Capacity Factors are calculated using the hourly back-casted values divided by the value of the GATS installations The average capacity factor over Hour Ending 17 for the months of June, July, and August will be applied to the Zonal level Nameplate Capacity for a value at peak 13

14 Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone Annual Capacity at Peak Capacity at Peak 14

15 Distributed Solar Generation 2018 Forecast by Zone Annual Capacity at Peak * Cumulative zonal impact is less than 20 MW at summer peak 15

16 Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone Comparison of 2017 and 2018 Forecast Capacity at Peak 16

17 Next Steps Step 1 (future enhancement): PJM recognizes the advancements in the precision of estimating solar generation. PJM is currently working with AWS Truepower to develop historical back-casts for behind the meter solar facilities in the PJM footprint. AWS Truepower will present methodology and results at an LAS meeting in early

18 Appendix 18 PJM 2016

19 AE Zone 19

20 AEP Zone 20

21 APS Zone 21

22 ATSI Zone 22

23 BGE Zone 23

24 COMED Zone 24

25 DAYTON Zone 25

26 DPL Zone 26

27 DQE Zone 27

28 DUKE Zone 28

29 EKPC Zone 29

30 JCPL Zone 30

31 METED Zone 31

32 PECO Zone 32

33 PENLC Zone 33

34 PEPCO Zone 34

35 PL Zone 35

36 PS Zone 36

37 RECO Zone 37

38 UGI Zone 38

39 VEPCO Zone 39

40 Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone and State (only represents IHS Forecast) Annual Additions