Cotton and Wool. Situation and Outlook Report ~~/ CWS-54. If- Serv~ce. &J- December 1988 J4~K. Exchange Rate for Cotton Textile Imports Remains Stable

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Economic () ' O Res~arch If- Serv~ce ~~/ CWS- &J- December J~K Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook Report Exchange Rate for Cotton Textile Imports Remains Stable % of 0 0 ~ ~ 0 ~~~~~~~~~--~L-~~~ M J S D M J S D M J S D M J Quarterly data.

2 CONTENTS Textiles and the Economy U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook.. Upland Cotton Situation..... Outlook for /0.... ELS Cotton Situation World Cotton Situation and Outlook U.S. Wool Situation and Outlook.. World Wool Situation and Outlook. Mohair.... Manmade Fibers List of Text Tables Special Articles Real Trade-Weighted Exchange Rates for the Raw-Fiber Equivalent of U.S. Imports of Cotton and Manmade Fiber Products Raw Fiber Equivalent of U.S. Textile Exports, by Country of Destination, and.. List of Appendix Tables Page Situation Coordinator Bob Skinner (0) -0 Principal Contributors Bob Skinner, Scott Sanford (0) -0 (Cotton) John V. Lawler (0) -0 (Wool, Mohair, and Manmade Fibers)Scott Sanford (0) -0 (Textiles) Carolyn L. Whitton (0) - (World Cotton) Mae Dean Johnson (0) -0 Electronic Word Processing Terri Walker Commodity Economics Division, Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C Approved by thew orld Agricultural Outlook Board. Summary released November,. The next summary of the Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook report is scheduled for February,. Summaries of the Situation and Outlook reports, including tables, may be accessed electronically. For details, call (0) -0. The Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook is published three times a year and is supplemented by a yearbook. Subscriptions are available from the Economic Research Service by calling (0) - or writing USDA/ERS, Box 0, Rockville, MD 00. Rates: year $0, years $, years $. Foreign customers add percent for subscriptions rr.ailed outside the United States. Make check payable to USDA/ERS. Subscriptions also are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office.

3 SUMMARY Based on November conditions, U.S. cotton production is forecast at. million bales. Upland production is estimated at. million bales, and extra-long staple at a record,00 bales. Larger acreage is offsetting lower yields, leaving the total crop virtually unchanged from last year. area for harvest is estimated at. million acres, up percent from, reflecting the smaller acreage reduction program. Yields are expected to average pounds per harvested acre, a -pound drop from 's record 0 pounds. U.S. mills consumed. million bales of cotton in /, the most since n. This season, larger textile inventories, weakened demand for denim, and a trend toward finer count yarns could contribute to a decline in mill consumption to. million bales. Early-season mill use for August, September, and October averaged near. million bales on a seasonally-adjusted annual rate. U.S. cotton export sales at the start of the / season totaled only. million bales,. million below last season and the lowest in years. Outstanding sales and shipments through mid-november totaled. million bales, compared to. million last season. Fierce overseas price competition has been largely responsible. Exports during / are expected to fall percent below last season to million bales. Although the Secretary of Agriculture made several changes in the cotton program last August to make U.S. cotton more competitive, U.S. prices remain above competitors'. U.S. prices for -crop cotton on the Northern European market climbed - cents per pound above foreign prices last summer. In October, Memphis Territory-A type cotton averaged cents per pound c.i.f. Northern Europe, while quotations from Pakistan, which are generally the lowest in the index, were cents. World and U.S. cotton prices generally moved lower last season, reflecting larger U.S. and foreign production, stable world consumption, and adequate carryover supplies. The adjusted world price (U.S. equivalent of world prices) dropped below the loan rate during July and remained below it for the first months of the / marketing year. The adjusted world price (A WP) continued to fall through the end of August. Since then, it has increased to nearly cents per pound, up cents from the early-season low. The U.S. average spot price and December futures have followed a similar pattern. U.S. cotton stocks were expected to decline last year. However, record yields and lower-than-expected cotton use resulted in stocks increasing over 00,000 bales to. million. Reduced export demand and lower domestic mill use likely will result in carryover stocks near. million bales this season, over twice the level specified in the Food Security Act of. Reduced export demand and lower cotton prices this season have resulted isn substantial CCC loan entries. On October, almost. million bales of -crop cotton had been placed under loan. World cotton production in / is expected to rise to million bales, percent above / and the second largest on record. Foreign production is projected up more than million bales and may total million. Increased area accounts for the increase. World cotton consumption is forecast at nearly million bales, about the same as last season. However, foreign consumption is projected up over 00,000 bales. Higher consumption outside the major importers accounts for all the increase. World trade, at almost million bales, is expected to about match last season's level. Competitively priced foreign exports are expected to rise. million bales to. million, representing a -percent share of global cotton trade and a -percent increase over last season. In /0, foreign production is likely to rise again because of major producing countries' need to expand tight / supplies. Rapidly rising manmade fiber prices, however, should encourage greater world cotton consumption next year. As consumption among cotton importers grows, world trade should expand. As exports increase, the United States may be able to export more because of continued tight supplies among some foreign competitors. The Secretary of Agriculture has announced major provisions of the upland cotton program. The new program will not be significantly different from the current one. However, producers will be required to reduce their cotton acreage by percent of their base (. percent was required in ) to be eligible for target price protection and the CCC loan program. Specifics for the -crop program include a target price of. cents per pound, with a loan level of 0.0 cents for base quality upland cotton - Strict Low Middling (SLM) - / inch, micronaire. to., at average U.S. location. In addition, if the adjusted world price (A WP) for cotton falls below the announced loan rate, the Plan B marketing loan program will be put into effect. Under Plan B, -crop cotton pledged as collateral for a price support loan may be repaid at the lower of the A WP or the loan level. U.S. wool consumption in the third quarter of was. million pounds, clean. The woolen system consumed million pounds, the smallest quarterly use in over years. Rising wool prices caused larger-than-usual fabric orders to be placed in late and early. Third-quarter reorders were smaller than usual. The worsted system used million pounds, and contained its largest share of the lower priced coarser-than-0's grades in almost years. Carpet mills took. million pounds.

4 TEXTILES AND THE ECONOMY Real gross national product (GNP) increased. percent ($. billion) in third-quarter, following a -percent ($. billion) increase in the second quarter and a.-percent ($. billion) increase in the first quarter. This slower increase is viewed by some as more sustainable over the longer term. The slowdown in GNP was largely accounted for by less growth in business purchases of equipment and exports-two areas of very rapid growth in the first half of the year. In third-quarter, real personal consumption expenditures increased $. billion, after increasing $. billion in the second quarter. Expenditures on nondurable goods increased $. billion, compared with $0. billion in the second quarter. Durables expenditures increased $0. billion, compared with $. billion in the second quarter. The large third-quarter increase in nondurables expenditures broke a lengthy quarterly pattern of low or negative growth. Capacity utilization in October for durable and nondurable manufacturing was and. percent, respectively. Capacity utilization for durables has risen steadily in, while the rate for nondurables, though higher, has remained quite stable. The rate of capacity utilization for the textile mill products industry has also been stable over the last several months, at about -0 percent. U.S. industrial production rose. percent in October,. percent in September, and. percent in August, to. percent of the annual average. This was. percent above last October. Output of clothing decreased. percent in August and rose. percent in September, the latest month for which data are available. In September the clothing index, at 0. percent of the annual average, was. percent above September a year earlier. Output of textile materials, at 0. percent of the annual average in September, increased. percent since June but was still. percent below the September level. Thus, when compared to the general production index, output of clothing and textile materials has been depressed. The U.S. merchandise trade deficit was $0. billion in September, $. billion less than in August. In September, imports ($. billion) were $. billion less than in August, and exports ($. billion) were $. billion more. In August, both values were recent-record levels. While exports have been steadily improving, the value of imports has remained large, resulting iri very slow nominal trade balance improvement. Some recent trends indicate that further improvement may be slower still. After falling steadily since early, the trade-weighted value of the dollar rose. percent in the third quarter of. Additionally, the i~port p~ce index for ~ll commodities decreased. percent m the thrrd quarter-its first quarterly decline in yea_rs.. The drop was pervasive, affecting seven of the eight major Import groups. The U.S. import price index for textile fibers, which increased at a 0.-percent rate from September to September of this year, declined. percent in the third quarter. Import prices for clothing, however, increased by. percent in the third quarter. Thus, conditions for improvement in the apparel trade balance still appear favorable. Comparison of the volume (square yards equivalent basis) of cotton, wool, and manmade fiber yarn, fabric, and apparel imports for January-September with the same period in reveals that total trade is. percent less in. Yarn, fabric, and apparel volume is off.0,., and. percent, respectively. In terms of specific fibers, this slowdown represents declines in cotton, wool, and manmade fiber imports of.,., and. percent, respectively. While volume has declined, the dollar value of imports is essentially unchanged from the previous year because of higher import prices. In October the Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods was unchanged after having risen. and. percent in September and August, respectively. The PPI for textile mill products fell. percent in October, while the index for apparel was unchanged. The Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) rose. percent in October, about the same as the monthly average rate for the past months. After falling in June, July, and August, the CPI-U for apparel and upkeep rose percent in September and. percent in October. For the months ending in October, the apparel and upkeep index increased at a -percent compound annual rate. The U.S. unemployment rate for all wage and salary workers was a seasonally adjusted.0 percent in October, matching its lowest level since mid-. Among apparel workers, unemployment rose during the last months from midyear. Unemployment was., 0., and. percent in August, September, and October, respectively. Unemployment among textile mill workers averaged. percent during the months ending in October, a slight increase over the. percent rate in the months ending in July. U.S. COTTON SITUATION AND OUTLOOK Upland Cotton Situation Larger Acreage Offsets Lower Yields Based on November conditions, upland cotton production is forecast at. million bales, about matching the crop and less than percent below the August es-

5 Table A.--Estimated and actual upland cotton acreage, yield, and production / Region Planted Harvested Yield Production ---,000 acres--- Lbs./acre,000 bales Southeast! Delta!,0,,,0,,00 Southwest /,,0,,,, West /,0,,,, 0, 0,0, 0, 0,, : 0, / Based on November Crop Production Report. / Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. / Arkansas, Louisiana~ Missouri, and Tennessee. / Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. ''Arizona, California, and New Mexico. timate. Based on past differences between the November estimate and final production, there is a -percent chance that production will range between.0 and.0 million bales. Larger acreage is offsetting lower yields, leaving the crop virtually unchanged from last year. upland area for harvest is estimated at. million acres, up percent from last year and reflecting the lower acreage reduction program for the crop. Upland yields are expected to average 0 pounds per harvested acre, pounds below the national average (Table A). Upland cotton production in the Southwest is expected to tota. million bales, down almost 00,000 from last season. Despite an increase in harvested acreage of almost 00,000 acres, significantly lower yields have resulted in lower production. Increased production in other regions of the Cotton Belt has offset these losses. The Delta States expect to produce. million bales, percent above last year and up percent from the August forecast. Production in the Western States is projected at.0 million bales, percent above last season and almost unchanged from the August estimate. The Southeastern States are expected to harvest.0 million bales, up percent from last year but percent below the August estimate. Mill Use Expected Down Slightly Last season, U.S. mills used more upland cotton than at any time since /. Strong early-season usage, partially related to strong denim business, led to the increase (figure ). Upland mill use for / totaled. million bales. This season, larger textile inventories, slower demand for denim, and consumers' preference for more fine count yarns Figure Upland Mill Use and Cotton's Share Both Rebound Million bales Aug *" Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Cotton's share of total fibers used on the cotton system. / Seasonally adjusted annual rate. Aug Percent and products could contribute to mill consumption declining to. million bales. Consumption on a seasonally adjusted annual rate for August, September, and October averaged nearly. million bales. Similarly, cotton's share of fibers used on the cotton system represented about two-thirds of the total, an increase of percent over July. Lower cotton prices relative to polyester may also result in some substitution of cotton in blends later this marketing year (figure ). Although cotton textile imports remain at very high levels, foreign shipments have declined. During the first months of, U.S. imports of foreign cotton textiles totaled. million bale-equivalents, percent below the same period in. In addition, U.S. cotton textile exports increased almost percent above year-ago levels. Even

6 Figure Cotton Prices Fall Relative to Manmade Fibers Cents/pound R ayon Polyester 0,,,,,,tlflllllllllllllllllllllll 0 0 Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Raw fber equivaient. Figure U.S. A-l'Ype Cotton Prices Remain Above Competitors Cents/pound Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Average of the cheapest five types of M -a/ Inch staple length offered on the European market. Oct though the weaker dollar has led to a slight improvement in the cotton textile trade balance, the deficit is expected to be near. million bale-equivalents for calendar, or about one-third of total domestic consumption this year. Cotton Exports Remain Slow Figure Foreign Coarse Count Cottons Are Competitively Priced Cents/pound 0 Upland cotton export sales at the start of / totaled only. million bales,. million below last season and the lowest in years. Outstanding sales plus shipments through mid-november totaled. million bales, compared to. million last season. Fierce overseas price competition has been largely responsible. Exports during / are expected to fall to. million bales, percent below last season. Although the Secretary of Agriculture made several changes in the upland cotton program last August to make U.S. cotton more competitive in world markets, U.S. price quotations still remain above competitors'. U.S. prices for - crop cotton delivered on the Northern European market climbed - cents per pound above foreign prices last summer. In October, Memphis Territory-A type cotton averaged cents per pound c.i.f. Northern Europe, while price quotations from Pakistan, which are generally the lowest in the index, were cents (figure ). Similarly, for coarse count cottons, Orleans/Texas price quotations ranged - cents per pound above Pakistani quotes last spring and early summer. However, during October the price difference narrowed to. cents per pound (figure ). For the first weeks in November, Orleans/Texas prices averaged. cents per pound, compared to. cents for Pakistani growths. Marketing Loan in Effect World and U.S. upland cotton prices generally moved lower last season, reflecting larger U.S. and foreign produc Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Average of the cheapest five types of coarse count cotton offered on the European market. tion, stable world consumption, and adequate carryover supplies. The adjusted world price (U.S. equivalent of world prices) dropped below the loan rate during July, and has remained below the loan level during the first months of the / marketing year. The adjusted world price (A WP) continued to fall through the end of August. Since then, the A WP has increased to nearly cents per pound, up cents from the early season low. The U.S. average spot price and December futures have followed a similar pattern. However, the spread between December futures prices and the A WP has increased from nearly cents per pound in early August to around cents in late November (table B). Changes in the upland cotton program made in late August changed these relationships. The basis between the average spot price and the A WP ranged between and cents during the first months of the marketing year.

7 Carryover Stocks Expected To Rise U.S. upland cotton stocks were expected to decline last year. However, record yields and lower-than-expected cotton use resulted in stocks increasing 00,000 bales to. million. Reduced export demand and lower domestic mill use will likely result in carryover stocks near. million bales this season, over twice the level specified in the Food Security Act of. Reduced export demand and lower cotton prices this season have resulted in substantial CCC loan entries. On October, almost. million bales of -crop cotton had been placed under loan (table C). In addition, over million bales of and -crop cotton remain under loan, with Southern Plains cotton accounting for the majority. Table B.--u.s. cotton prices, Month and day Aug. Sep. Oct. 0 Nov. 0 Average spot market price / Dec. futures price / Cents per pound Adjusted world price / / Spot and Dec. futures prices are for SLM -/ inch cotton, the U.S. base quality. / Adjusted world price is the Northern Europe price adjusted to SLM -/ inch at average U.S. producing location. Adl"usted world prices are applicable for the week fo lowing the date shown. Table C.--Cotton loan statistics / Region Loans made Loans repaid Loans outstanding Loans forfeited ,000 running bales Southeast / Delta /,.,..,., Southern Plains /,0.,..,....,... /est /,0.0,0. 0., / Outlook for /0 High Stock Levels Dominate Outlook The /0 upland cotton marketing year is expected to begin with almost 00 days of carryin stocks, compared to a 00-day supply at the start of /. Beginning inventory next season is expected to reach. million bales, more than double the desired level. Lower domestic mill use and export potential during / is expected to increase stocks by million bales. Program Provisions Should Reduce Stocks The Secretary of Agriculture has announced major provisions of the upland cotton program. The new program will not be significantly different from the current one. However, producers will be required to reduce their cotton acreage by percent of their base (. percent was required in ) to be eligible for target price protection and the CCC loan program. A paid land diversion program will not be implemented. Specifics for the -crop program include a target price of. cents per pound, with a loan level of 0.0 cents for base quality upland cotton- Strict Low Middling (SLM) - / inch, micronaire. to., at average U.S.location. In addition, if the adjusted world price (A WP) for cotton falls below the announced loan rate, the Plan B marketing loan program will be put into effect. Under Plan B, -crop cotton pledged as collateral for a price support loan may be repaid at the lower of the A WP or the loan level.

8 The A WP is determined for base-quality cotton. For other qualities and locations, it will be further adjusted by applying the -crop price support schedules of premiums and discounts for grade and staple, discounts for micronaire, location differentials, and any coarse count adjustment in effect for the week in which the loan repayment occurs. Regardless of the quality, the A WP will not be established at less than cents per pound. Loan deficiency payments will be made to eligible producers who agree to forego loan eligibility if the loan repayment rate is less than the announced loan level. The payment rate will equal the difference between the loan level and the loan repayment rate. Producers may elect to forego loan eligibility on a bale-by-bale basis. Loan redemption procedures implemented last August for -crop cotton will also apply next season. When loan collateral is redeemed with cash and the A WP is below the loan rate (0.0 cents per pound) for base quality, the CCC will not require payment of any interest and will pay all the warehouse charges. When the A WP is above the base loan rate, CCC will not require the payment of that portion of the accrued interest, and will pay any accrued warehouse charges that are deemed necessary to permit the loan collateral to be redeemed with cash at the A WP. If certificates are used to redeem upland cotton that has been placed as collateral under CCC loan, the cotton will be redeemed at the A WP for the week in which the certificates are presented for redemption. Accrued warehouse charges are not paid by CCC unless the loan is phased into an ex-. tended status. When cotton under loan is obtained with certificates, storage charges for the first 0 months the cotton was under loan are paid by the CCC, but storage charges will accrue for months through of the loan. In addition to the other provisions, it was also announced that a recourse loan program for upland seed cotton would be continued and that the inventory reduction program would not be used. The sign up period for the program will begin December,, and end April,. During signup, producers may request 0 percent of their estimated deficiency payments. Enrollment in the upland cotton program will likely exceed this year's -percent participation, because of deteriorating market conditions for upland cotton. If participation increases to or levels ( or percent, respectively) planted acreage could decrease to between and million acres, with less than million planted outside the program. Depending on yields, the crop could range from 0 to million bales. With trend yields, the upland crop could approach million bales, almost. million below the projected crop. Demand Prospects May Improve Competitive cotton prices relative to manmade fibers, continued strong consumer demand for cotton products, and strengthening textile activity next season should lead to increased cotton consumption by U.S. mills. Mill use will again be limited by competition from textile imports, but should still top million bales in /0. Despite the changes made last August in the upland cotton program in order to make U.S. growths fully competitive in world markets, U.S. cotton exports during / will likely fall significantly from the previous year. Fierce price competition from foreign competitors has limited the potential for U.S. exports this season. However, prospects for /0 should improve. Increased world import demand and lower foreign exportable supplies should lead to larger U.S. cotton shipments next season. Upland cotton exports could range between. and. million bales during the /0 marketing year. Expected disappearance could exceed expected production by more than million bales. However, ending stocks are expected to remain well above the -million-bale level. Unless crop problems arise, either in the United States or overseas, and if no additional program changes are implemented, it will likely take several years to reduce carryover supplies to the desired level. ELS Cotton Situation Record Production Expected Based on November conditions, U.S. yield per harvested acre for extra-long staple (ELS) cotton is estimated at pounds, little changed from the August estimate. However, ELS production for is estimated at,00 bales, down percent from the August estimate because of a similar reduction in harvested average (table D). In addition, estimated exports of ELS cotton of 00,000 bales are down percent. The revisions notwithstanding, both production and exports should be at record levels in. Domestic mill consumption for the first months of indicates stronger demand than in. Actual mill consumption ofels cotton in August and September ( in parentheses) was, (,) and, (,0) bales, respectively. These levels represent a seasonally adjusted annual usage rate of about 00,000 bales. Mill use in early is being bolstered by increased demand for stronger, finer count yams for which ELS is well suited. Despite this early-year strength, / ELS mill use is estimated at 0,000 bales, based upon anticipated weaker mill usage and high prices. Based upon estimates of production, exports, and domestic consumption, stocks at the end of / are projected at 0,000 bales.

9 Table D.--Estimated and actual ELS cotton acreage, yield, and production / ~~~~ i> i~~t;d----- ii~~~;;t;d-----ri; ld----- i>~~~~t i ~~ ,000 acres--- Lbs./acre,000 bales Arizona.0 0. ' ,0 0.0 Texas New Mexico California 0. 0.,m '~ / Based on November Crop Production Report. Foreign Exportable Supply Increases Based upon International Cotton Advisory Committee estimates, foreign production of ELS cotton is placed at. million bales, up about percent from the previous year. Consumption is estimated at. million bales in, up about percent from. With consumption lagging increases in production, exportable supplies among foreign producers should increase in / despite lower beginning stocks,,000 bales, than in the previous year (,000 bales). The larger exportable stocks will likely pressure U.S. exports this season. Projections oflower exports among foreign producers in / may result in yearending stocks increasing to,000 bales (table E). Table E.--ELS cotton supply and use in foreign producing countries Year Beginning August Prel. Proj. Proj ,000 bales BEGINNING STOCKS Egypt, L. STPL. India Israel Peru PRC Sudan 0 USSR 0 producers Subtotal 0 0 Egypt, ELS PRODUCTION Egypt, L. STPL. India 00 Israel Peru 0 0 PRC 0 Sudan 0 0 USSR producers 0 Subtotal 0 Egypt, ELS CONSUMPTION Egypt, L. STPL India Israel 0 0 Peru 0 PRC Sudan 0 USSR 00 producers 0 0 Subtotal 0 Egypt, ELS EXPORTS Egyj:>t, L. STPL India Israel 0 00 Peru PRC Sudan USSR producers 0 Subtotal 0 0 Egypt, ELS Source: International Cotton Advisory Committee, Washington, DC.

10 WORLD COTTON SITUATION AND OUTLOOK Foreign Supplies Continue Tight in Both world and foreign cotton stocks at the beginning of / are the lowest since /. Rising stocks in the United States will push world / ending stocks up nearly million bales (table F). Figure Foreign Supplies Continue Tight Million 0-lb. bales Foreign stocks are projected to drop more than million bales as foreign use rises. Most of the gain will be in exports; consumption is expected to be only marginally higher. Foreign output is projected up this season, but gains in production are expected only to offset the lower beginning stocks, not the higher use, so foreign supplies will begin next season lower still (figure ). Marketing years Table F.--World cotton supply and use, / and / / Year beginning August United States World less United States Major importers / Major exporters / foreign World / su~ply egnning stocks Production Imports Use Mill use Exports Ending stocks / surely egnning stocks Production Imports Use Mill use Exports Ending stocks.0. /..... /..0. Million 0-pound bales / Based on Nov., World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. / estimated and / projected. s may not add and stocks may not balance due to rounding, a small quantity of cotton destroyed, and differences unaccounted. / Eastern Europe{ Western Europe, Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan. / Austra ia, China, Central America, Egypt, Mexico, Pakistan, Sudan, Turkey, and the USSR. / Less than 0,000 bales. Smaller Growth in Foreign Production Expected Foreign production is expected to rise percent in / to. million bales. Output looks particularly good in India, the Soviet Union, and the Mediterranean countries. But production gains were recently reduced somewhat because of weather problems in China, South Asia, and the Southern Hemisphere. Cloudy weather delayed the cotton harvest so long in two important Chinese provinces that plants had to be removed so the winter wheat crop could be planted, cutting China's prospective output from to. million bales. Heavy rain and some flooding in Pakistan and India also hurt cotton; but Pakistan's output is still expected to be the second highest ever, and India could still produce a record crop. 0

11 In the Southern Hemisphere, Brazil, Argentina, and to a lesser extent Paraguay, experienced such dry weather that planting was delayed, reducing area from earlier forecasts. Australia is also cutting area in response to relatively low world prices. Consumption and Trade Stagnate in Foreign consumption is estimated up marginally in / because continued strong use among major producers is just sufficient to offset reductions among importers. Consumption is forecast at. million bales, compared with. million last year. Like the United States, major foreign importers are cutting use this season. In part, this is because of smaller denim demand in the United States, a major market. Another contributing factor has been stronger consumer preference for rayon, particularly in the other major market, Western Europe. World exports should slip slightly as cotton importers reduce use. All of the loss will occur in U.S. exports. Competitive prices are expected to push foreign cotton exports up percent, nearly. million bales. The foreign share of the world market is forecast to rise from percent in / to percent in /. Pakistan, the Soviet Union, Argentina, Paraguay, some of Africa, and producers around the Mediterranean will gain at the expense of the United States, whose share is expected to fall from to percent. Excluding /, when U.S. exports plummeted, this is the lowest U.S. market share in years. U.S. Exports May Recover in 0 Because of Tight Foreign Supplies Relatively low cotton prices, if they continue, should dampen gains in /0 Northern Hemisphere production. The A Index and all futures quotations are now in the 0-0 cents per pound range, at least 0 cents below the same time last year. Foreign production is likely to rise in.0, despite the lack of world price incentives. Because of tight supplies at the end of /, important producers such as the Soviet Union, India, and China, which account for nearly 0 percent of foreign production, may promote yield expansion again next year. Rapidly rising polyester and rayon prices should also encourage world cotton consumption next season, even if total fiber consumption continues to stagnate. In recent months, a shortage of ethylene glycol, a component in polyester production, has pushed polyester prices up sharply worldwide (figure ). If this shortage continues into /0, more cotton use is expected. Figure Foreign Polyester Prices Up Sharply Cents/pound 0... Japan Italy.. W. Germany i... ~~~~.-,.ulllwtwlliv,~,.,... 0 ~,,, ~- -~...:,::,,,,~ \ ~\\ I~,\ :$... '..,... J,,,,,... ~-.~ umtllltlllll~' V...,... 0 A index cotton ~-~ 0 0 Aug Taiwan Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun / Marketing years Aug Oct / Exports should rise in /0 as consumption improves. Tight supplies, particularly in the Soviet Union and China, may limit potential foreign export growth. U.S. exports and export market share could rebound somewhat as a result. U.S. WOOL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK Raw wool mill consumption in the third quarter of was. million pounds, clean, almost percent below the second quarter but more than percent above a year earlier (table G). Apparel mills used 0. million pounds. The woolen system consumed. million pounds, percent below the previous quarter and. percent less than a year earlier. It was the smallest woolen system quarterly mill activity since fourth-quarter. Rising wool prices caused larger-than-usual fabric orders to be placed in late and early. Third-quarter reorders were smaller than usual. The worsted system used. million pounds in the third quarter,. percent less than the previous quarter but. percent above last year. The worsted system used the largest share of coarser-than-0's, percent, since fourth-quarter. This share had risen from percent in the second quarter and percent in the first. Carpet mills took. million pounds in the third quarter, percent more than the second quarter and percent above a year earlier. raw wool mill use in is estimated at million pounds, percent above last year (table H). U.S. imports of raw wool in the third quarter were. million pounds, clean, down percent from the second quarter and percent below a year ago (table I). This relatively large decline is almost entirely due to American mills' smaller use of the finer (and more expensive) grades. Dutiable wool imports in the third quarter were. million

12 Table G.--U.S. mill consumption of raw wool, scoured basis Year Apparel Carpet wool wool , 000 pounds 0,,, ; 0,0,,0,00 0,0 0,,, 0,, ;0, Jan. -Mar.,,, 0,,,,, 0,0,,000,,,,0,0,, /,,,0 Apr.- June,0,0,,,,0,,0 0,,, 0,,,,00,,,0 /,,,0 JuLrsept.,,. 0,,, ;,0,0,, 0,0, 0,0 :, 0,0,, Oct. -Dec.,,,0,,0,0,,,0,,, 0,,,,0,, / Revised.! Preliminary. Source: Bureau of the Census. Table H.--Wool supply and disappearance, clean content Item / Million pounds Stocks, January Production Imf>Orts Diff. unacc supply MiLL use Exports use Stocks December / Estimated by the USDA. ALL projections are rounded. Source: USDA and Bureau of the Census. pounds, percent below the second quarter and percent less than last year. Imports of finer-than-'s in the third quarter, at. million pounds, were the smallest for any quarter in more than years. September imports,. million pounds, were the smallest monthly quantity since October. About percent of the third-quarter dutiable imports came from two countries: Australia, ~ percent, and New Zealand, percent. Duty-free imports were. million pounds, almost percent more than the second quarter, but percent below a year ago. About percent came from countries: New Zealand, 0 percent, and the United Kingdom, percent. The share of raw wool imports entering the United States through the New England and the Middle Atlantic customs districts has declined every year, from percent in to percent during the first months of (table J). Conversely, the percentage entering through the South Atlantic and other districts has risen from percent to percent. During January-September about percent of the duty-free wool came through the New England and Middle Atlantic regions, compared with percent of the dutiable. In contrast, most of the dutiable raw wool, percent, entered through the South Atlantic and other customs districts along with percent of the duty-free. U.S. prices of territory raw wool behaved in a mixed pattern by the middle ofthe fourth quarter. The 's increased more than percent from August to $., clean basis, in November, while 's increased percent to $.. The 's were unchanged at $., while the 's were up percent to $.0. The simple average price received by farmers Table I.--U.S. imports of dutiable and duty-free raw wool for consumption, clean content Year Dutiable Duty-free ,000 pounds,,,,,,0, 0,0, 0,,0,,00 0,0,,0,0 0,0 Jan. -Mar.,, 0, 0,,, 0,,0,,,,,,0, 0,,0,,,, Apr.-June 0,,0,,,0,,,,,, :,0,,, 0,,0,, Jutrsept.,,, 0,,,0 0:00,0, :, :,,,,0,,0 Oct.-Dec., 0, :,,,0,,,0,0 0,,,,0,,, Source: Bureau of the Census.

13 Table J.--Raw wool imports by regions / Duty-free Dutiable Region Jan.-Sept. Percent Jan.-Sept. Jan.Sept. New England Middle Atlantic south Atlantic and other / / Imports entered through customs districts in the respective regions.! Includes customs districts along the Gulf, the Mexican border, the Pacific Coast, and the Canadian border Source: Bureau of the Census. in November for raw wool, grease basis, was $., percent below October, but percent above a year earlier (table K). Domestic prices for the finer grades of Australian wool, clean basis, generally peaked in October from the season's beginning in August, then declined in November. The 0's were up percent by October before declining percent in November to $., and the 0's moved up percent before declining percent to $.. The 's and 's both increased percent, then declined percent to $. and percent to $., respectively. The 's increased by October, then went down percent to $.. Month January February March April May June July August Table K.--Average U.S. farm prices per pound for shorn wool, grease basis / Cents September October November December..... Average / Weighted market average price. Source: Agricultural Prices, National Agricultural Statistics Service. The Department of Agriculture has announced proposed price support levels for shorn wool, pulled wool, and mohair for the marketing year. The shorn wool support price is determined based upon a formula prescribed in the Wool Act. Based on current reported indexes, the shorn wool support price will be $. per pound (grease basis). The support price for pulled wool, as designated in the Wool Act, shall be set at a level relative to the support price for shorn wool to maintain normal marketing practices for pulled wool. The law also provides that mohair must be supported at a level, determined by the Secretary of Agriculture, that is necessary to maintain approximately the same percentage of parity as for shorn wool. The deviation of mohair support prices shall not cause an increase or decrease of more than percent from the comparable percentage of parity at which shorn wool is supported. Based on current reported indexes, the mohair support price would be $.0 per pound, grease basis, at 00 percent of the comparable percentage at which shorn wool is supported. The minimum support price would be $., while the maximum would be $.. WORLD WOOL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK The / world supply of raw wool is estimated at. billion pounds, clean, 0. percent more than last season. Although / world production,.0 billion pounds, is. percent above the previous season, stock depletion has reduced the carryin to the lowest in years. Exports of raw wool from the five main exporting countries are expected to be the same as last season, about. billion pounds, clean. The latest data (for the / season) indicate the shares of the five leaders: Australia- percent, New Zealand - 0 percent, Argentina - percent, Uruguay - percent, and South Africa - percent. Second-quarter consumption of raw wool in major wool textile manufacturing countries was million pounds, clean, a 0.-percent decline from the flrst quarter, but 0. percent above a year earlier. Second-quarter production of yarns on the worsted system in 0 major producing countries was million pounds, clean, 0. percent less than the previous quarter. Yarn production on the woolen system in countries was million pounds, clean, 0. percent more than the first quarter. Production of woven wool fabrics in 0 major producing countries, million square

14 yards in the second quarter, was. percent greater than the first. With more than one-third of the season gone, Australian wool prices declined about percent from the season's opening to early September, when the market indicator (MI, a weighted average index of wool categories) reached A cents per kilogram, clean. The market then strengthened, rising percent by mid-october to 00. During the following month the demand weakened with the MI declining to. The major buyers have been Japanese mills, with strong support from Eastern and Western European mills. In mid-november, the Australian Wool Corporation stockpile reached, bales. Although this was more than times the level at the season's start, it was less than 0 percent of the June level and less than percent of the June level. Nine countries were the destination of almost 0 percent of Australia's / raw wool exports: Japan- 0 percent, China- percent, the USSR and Italy- 0 percent each, France- percent, Korea- percent, West Germany, Taiwan, and the United States - percent each. During August-September, the New Zealand wool market experienced strong demand. The New Zealand market indicator rose from 0 NZ cents per kilogram, clean, to a record in early October. Since then, the market eased, with the MI dropping to by mid-november. The leading customers have been China and the USSR. In late October, New Zealand Wool Board stocks were,00 bales, percent of the July level. Wool production in New Zealand during the / season is forecast to be million pounds, clean, percent below the / output. A lower yield will offset an increase of. percent in sheep numbers to million. Eight countries were the destination of more than two-thirds of New Zealand's / raw wool exports: China- 0 percent, the United Kingdom- 0 percent, the USSR and Japan- percent each, Belgium - percent, West Germany and the United States- percent each, and the Netherlands- percent. The South African market opened August on a generally steady note, with the market indicator at,0 SA cents per kilogram, clean. The MI climbed during August-September, averaging, with percent of the offering sold. During October, the market indicator reached a record,, surpassing the previous peak last April of,0. The October average was,, with. percent of the offering sold. The market softened in late October, and continued soft until mid-november when the MI rose to,0. Stocks of the South African Wool Board more than doubled from the, bales on hand September, to, bales on November. MOHAIR U.S. mohair exports during the third quarter were. million pounds, clean, percent less than the second quarter and percent below the comparable period last year. About percent of the third-quarter shipments went to three countries: the United Kingdom- percent, India- percent, and Taiwan- percent. Exports in are expected to total million pounds, percent below last year (table L). Current U.S. mohair prices are higher than last summer, reflecting strong overseas demand. Adult hair is $.0 per pound, compared with $.0 last August. Young goat is $.00, and was $. in August. Kid, at $., has not changed. These prices should continue through. The fall clip was about. million pounds, clean. Large overseas shipments have brought stocks down to million pounds, one-third of last year's level. Heavy culling of herds continues because sheep and cattle offer better profit in the short run than angora goats. Mexico is a major market for surplus goats. Strong demand this fall has come from Japan, Italy, the USSR, and China. This vigorous market is expected to continue through. The principal end uses are scarves, sweaters, coats, and hand-knitting yams. South African stocks, currently about million pounds, are about half last year's. Production this year,. million pounds, is about the same. Table L.--U.S. mohair supply and disappearance Item Stocks, January,0 Production,0 IlllJ)Orts D iff. unacc. -,0 supply,0 Mill use 00 Exports 0 use :0 Million pounds,00 0, 0,0 :0,0 0 -,0 0, :, ,,0 :,, / :0,00 00,000,00 Stocks December,00,0,,,000 ~ / Estimated by the USDA. All projections are rounded. Source: USDA and Bureau of the Census. MANMADE FIBERS Production of nonglass manmade fibers in the third quarter was. billion pounds, down. percent from the second quarter and percent more than last year. End-of September stocks at producers' plants were. percent less than in June, but up percent from a year ago. Staple stocks were down percent from June, mostly in nylon staple (0

15 percent). Filament stocks were up percent overall. The major exception was nylon carpet filament, down percent. Mill consumption in the third quarter,. billion pounds, was percent below the previous quarter and the same as a year ago. Domestic shipments of noncellulosic fibers in the third quarter,. billion pounds, were. percent less than in the second. Staple fiber shipments, 0. billion pounds, were down percent, while filament fibers, 0. billion, were. percent below the previous quarter. Consumption data for the second quarter are shown for the three major fiber markets in table. The carpet market continues to be the largest ( percent), consuming million pounds. Carpet use of fibers has continued high despite soft construction activity. Second-quarter use was percent above the first and. percent more than the average. The strength of the carpet market has resulted largely from replacement sales. Many homeowners have been influenced by the recently developed and promoted "stain resistant" carpet properties. Nylon, at percent, is the major carpet fiber. Olefm is in second place with 0 percent. Estimates for the third quarter indicate that million pounds of nylon were shipped to carpet mills, percent above the first two quarters. Woven textiles continue as the second largest ( percent) manmade fiber market. About 0 million pounds were used in the second quarter, percent above the first and percent more than the / quarterly average. Polyester, at percent, and olefin fibers, at percent, together constitute almost three-fourths of this market. The knit market used about million pounds in the second quarter, more than percent above the first quarter. Polyester's share, million pounds, was percent, while nylon at million pounds was percent. Acrylic fibers, at million pounds, were percent. Prices of raw materials used to make noncellulosic fibers continued to rise in the third and fourth quarters (table M). Pressure comes from domestic sales and overseas shipments aided by a weak dollar. Para-xylene (a raw material for polyester fiber) has increased - cents per pound since last summer to the - cent range. Xylene prices are influenced not only by the demand for polyester fiber and film but also by the demand for gasoline. A precursor is used as an octane enhancer. The price of ethylene glycol (a raw material for polyester fiber) continued to rise during the third quarter and into the fourth. It has increased by half in the last months because of the strong fiber and nonfiber demand for ethylene-derived chemicals. Cyclohexane (a raw material for nylon) has had a relatively steady price. The October increase of - percent reflects a higher benzene price, a precursor, and the strong demand for nylon. The acrylonitrile price, $0. per pound, has not changed because of weak fiber and nonfiber acrylonitrile end-uses. Caprolactam 's (a raw material for nylon) price, $0.-0.0, has not changed since early summer. Propylene, a precursor for acrylonitrile and olefin fibers, has had a rather stable price, about cents. Inventories are about 0 percent above last year because production has been greater than consumption. Table M.--Reported spot prices of raw materials for manmade fibers, Product Jan. Feb. March April May June Para-xylene / Propylene / Ethylene glycol / Cyclohexane / Acrylonitrile / Caprolactam / NA NA. 0-. NA NA July August Sep. Oct. Nov. Para-xylene / Propylene / Ethylene glycol / Cyclohexane / Acrylonitrile / Caprolactam / / Cents per pound. / Dollars per gallon. NA =Not available. Source: Chemical Marketing Reporter

16 LIST OF TEXT TABLES A. Estimated and actual upland cotton acreage, yield, and production B. U.S. cotton prices,.... C. Cotton loan statistics D. Estimated and actual ELS cotton acreage, yield, and production E. ELS cotton supply and use in foreign producing countries F. World cotton supply and use, / and / G. U.S. mill consumption of raw wool, scoured basis.... H. Wool supply and disappearance, clean content.... I. U.S. imports of dutiable and duty-free raw wool for consumption, clean content J. Raw wool imports by regions.... K. Average U.S. farm prices per pound for shorn wool, grease basis L. U.S. mohair supply and disappearance.... M.Reported spot prices of raw materials for manmade fibers,.. Page REAL TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE RAW-FIBER EQUIVALENT OF U.S. IMPORTS OF COTTON AND MANMADE FIBER PRODUCTS Scott Sanford and Bob Skinner Agricultural Economists, ERS, USDA Abstract: This is the first of two articles investigating the relationship between U.S. textile product imports and the value of the dollar. Trade shares of importing countries are determined, and used to compute trade-weighted exchange rate indexes. These indexes are presented, compared, and analyzed for theoretical consistency with observed trade patterns. The second article will employ econometric techniques to assess statistically the relationship between imports and the value of the dollar, and will be presented in a subsequent issue of this publication. Keywords: textile product imports, trade-weighted exchange rates Introduction During the 0's, the value of the dollar versus major foreign currencies has undergone substantial change. Emerging from a low in, the dollar gained strength through the early 0's, peaked in, and has generally declined since. The theoretical impact on U.S. trade of a strengthening dollar has been stated this way: A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive to other countries, thereby reducing demand. A strong dollar also causes the price of imports into the United States to decline in dollar terms, creating competitive pressures on domestic producers that compete with imports, such as the automobile, steel, and textile industries (Schuh et al). A weakening dollar would be expected to yield converse results. General U.S. trade patterns have tended to support these observations and, with respect to the farm sector, analysts have concluded that the real value of the dollar contributed to a reduced volume of U.S. farm exports in the early 0's (Batten and Belongia). As interest in exchange rates has increased, refined techniques of calculating comparative currency values have been

17 developed. When discussing a particular commodity it is common practice to calculate an exchange rate for the individual commodity, rather than rely upon a general measure of the value of the dollar. This takes into account the diverse countries that may trade for a particular commodity. Also, focusing on a particular commodity avoids aggregation of items that may involve substantially different value. Once a particular commodity is identified, along with those countries with which the United States trades the item, the procedure may be further refined by adjusting for different levels of trade by individual countries. The final adjustment involves taking into account differing rates of domestic inflation among trading partners. The result is a commodity-specific real trade-weighted exchange value of the dollar. Data and Methodology The volume of U.S. imports of textiles and apparel is closely monitored and reported by both government and industry, for purposes ranging from monitoring bilateral trade agreements to assessing potential impacts of imports on the domestic textile industry. These data are reported in several forms, including end-use (such as mens' and boys' shirts) and quantity of material (such as cotton, wool, and manmade fiber). When reported by quantity of fiber, common units of measurement are square yards equivalent and pounds of rawfiber equivalent. USDA's Economic Research Service monitors monthly textile trade data and reports import volume in pounds of raw fiber by fiber type and country of origin. These data are used in this analysis. The preliminary procedures, involving identification of countries exporting textiles to the United States and determination of the volume of monthly exports, are readily accomplished using selected issues of the Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook Report (CWS). For instance, raw cotton equivalents of U.S. monthly imports by country are reported in tables and of CWS-. Similar tables report manmade fiber imports. As may be noted, the number of countries exporting to the United States is large-frequently in excess of 00 for a specific fiber. An analysis of the type undertaken here would be quite onerous if every country were strictly accounted. Fortunately, the presence of several very large (by volume) and consistent (across time) importers permits a narrowing of data without seriously diluting the coverage. Major exporters and their respective trade shares by fiber type are presented in Table I. A real trade-weighted exchange rate index allows an examination of the value of the dollar versus the currencies of major trading partners across time. The value of the index at a specific time, t, is computed as: n Eq.(l) loo*exp l wi log R. i=l e t where exp denotes the exponential operator, wi represents the trade share of country i, and Rit represents the real exchange rate for country i expressed in natural logarithms, as a ratio to the base period, R.b Thus, the trade shares in Table, calculated according to the weighted average share of - imports for the respective countries, are important components of the index and enter directly into the calculation of the index as w i in the equation. The wi must sum to unity in each column of Table. It may be noted from Table that shares are Table.--Weighted - average trade share for selected textile exporting countries Fiber type Cotton Manmade Cotton and manmade ~ Trade share / Trade share / Trade share / Country Including Excluding Country Including Excluding Country Including Excluding China China China China China China Percent Percent Percent H~ng Kong.. Taiwan 0.. Taiwan.. C ina (PRC) 0. Korea.. China (PRC). Taiwan.. China (PRC). Hong Kong.. Korea 0.. Hon Kong 0..0 Korea.. India.. Mexco.. Japan.. Pakistan.. Japan.. India.. Brazil.. Canada.. Pakistan.0. J~pan.. Italy.. Thailand.. T ailand.0. Philippines.0. Indonesia.. Indonesia.0. Thailand..0 Italy.. / Rep~~~~~t~-~h~~~-~f-~;;~~;~t~-~~p~~t~-~f-~~~~t~l~~-ll~t~d-~~d-~~t-~h~~~-~f-t~t~l-U~S~-t~~tll~-j~~t~~

18 presented in two ways-first including China and then excluding China. The rationale for the special treatment of China is presented below. In Eq.(l), the exchange rate, R, is expressed in real tenns, indicating that adjustments have been made to account for inflation's impact on currency values. In order to do this, data on nominal exchange rates and consumer prices for each country are necessary. The International Monetary Fund (IMP) reports these data for its members and is the major source of data used here. However, not all countries belong to the IMP, and for some of those which belong, data are incomplete or reported with considerable lags (International Financial Statistics). China is one country for which data are reported with considerable lag. In addition, since China is a centrally planned economy, there is some question concerning the relevance of consumer price data. Analysts have argued that prices in centrally planned countries do not by themselves equate supply and demand, but rather consumer lines either lengthen or shorten according to the availability of goods (Stallings). In the absence of more concrete evidence concerning the appropriate treatment of China, the authors present results both including and excluding this country. Results and Implications Since first-quarter the exchange value of the dollar as measured by the Federal Reserve Index has declined sharply. As a result, many observers of the U.S. trade Table.--Real trade-weighted exchange rate indexes, 0=00 -~ Fiber Type Federal Reserve Month Cotton Manmade Cotton and manmade Index w/china w/o China w/china w/o China w/china w/o China January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June Percent change January to June l

19 Table.--Monthly change in U.S. textile imports from like month of precedng year Fiber type Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Cotton Manmade ,000 pounds ,0 -,0 -, -,0 -, -, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A,0,0,,,,0,,,0 :0, Based upon data not seasonally adjusted., -, -, -, -, -,0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A =Not available. - :0,,0,0,0,0,,, -0,, balance have anxiously awaited a similar drop in U.S. imports of foreign goods. For some groups of imported goods, notably textile products, the anticipated falloff has been slight and slow in materializing. Not surprisingly, some studies have concluded that there is little, if any, relation between exchange rates and U.S. textile product imports (Schwartz; Economic Consulting Services Incorporated). In a study similar to that undertaken here, a significant relation has been observed (Chmura). Critical to detection of this relationship is a focus on real, rather than nominal, exchange rates. Table reveals that, when compared to a general U.S. trade index, the indexes for textile products neither increased as much from 0 to as did the general index, nor decreased as sharply thereafter (0=00 for all indexes). Thus, one would not expect textile trade patterns to necessarily follow general trade patterns. Additionally, the indexes for specific fibers in Table show quite different trends. Some indexes peak at about the same time as the general trade index, while others peak much later. The overall relative stability of the indexes also suggests that textile importers have been less pressured to increase prices to protect profit margins. Consequently, they have maintained their competitiveness with domestic textile producers. The data presented in Table, based upon original data not seasonally adjusted, indicate that volume of textile imports has begun to decrease since the end of. Given the sharp drop in the indexes since first-quarter and allowing for an appropriate adjustment period for imports, this pattern appears consistent with the trend of the indexes. In the second portion of this study, individual indexes will be assessed for statistically significant relationships with observed U.S. import trade patterns. References. Batten, D.S. and M.T. Belongia. "Monetary Policy, Real Exchange Rates, and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Amer. J. Agr. Econ. (): -.. Chmura, C. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Variation on U.S. Textile and Apparel Imports," Economic Review, May/June. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. pp. -.. Economic Consulting Services Incorporated. "The Impact of the Appreciation of the Dollar on U.S. Imports of Textiles and Apparel," Washington, DC ().. Schwartz, E. "The Dollar in Foreign Exchange and U.S. Industrial Production," Staff Paper, Congressional Budget Office, December.. Schuh, G. E., et al. "Policy Options for Improving the Trade Performance of U.S. Agriculture. National Agricultural Forum, January.. Stallings, D. "Trade-Weighted Value of the Dollar," Agricultural Outlook-AO. USDA/Economic Research Service, Washington, DC October. pp. -.

20 RAW FIBER EQUIVALENT OF U.S. TEXTILE EXPORTS, BY COUNTRY OF DESTINATION, and by John Lawler Abstract: Textile exports in, at million pounds, increased percent from. The division by fiber type was similar in both years: cotton - percent, wool percent, and manmade - percent. By destinations, exports increased - percent to the Western Hemisphere, Asia-Oceania, and Africa. Shipments to Western and Eastern Europe showed no change. Keywords: Textile exports, cotton, wool, manmade fibers Textile Exports, and United States textile exports in totaled million pounds, raw fiber equivalent basis, an increase of percent from (table ). Manmade fiber textiles were almost two-thirds ( percent) of total exports, and were percent higher than in. Cotton textiles made up about one-third, and increased percent from. Wool textile exports were about percent and experienced a -percent increase from the previous year. Practically all of the U.S. textile exports in both and went to three regions: Western Hemisphere, and percent, respectively; Asia-Oceania, and percent; Western Europe, and percent (table ). Negligible quantities went to Eastern Europe and to Africa. Ten countries received more than percent of tota textile exports: Canada ( percent), Mexico ( percent), Table.-- U.S. textile exports, and l Category Yarn Fabric Apparel hold covering : Misc. : House Mill ion pounds Cotton Wool Manmade fibers Source: Bureau of Census. Floor Table.-- U.S. textile exports, by region, l and l * ~ Western Western Category Hemisphere : Europe Eastern Europe Most U.S. textile exports were in four product categories: fabric ( percent in and percent in ), apparel ( and percent, respectively), floor covering ( and 0 percent, respectively), and yam ( and 0 percent, respectively). Asia Oceania Africa Million pounds Cotton Wool Manmade fibers Source: Bureau of Census. 0

21 the Dominican Republic ( percent), percent each to Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, and Italy, Japan ( percent), China ( percent), and Costa Rica and Belgium ( percent each). The ten biggest recipients in were almost the same: Canada ( percent), Mexico ( percent), Italy ( percent), percent each to the Dominican Republic and the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia ( percent), China ( percent), percent each to Belgium-Luxembourg and West Germany, and Japan ( percent). Cotton Textile Exports In both and cotton textile exports,. and. million pounds, respectively; consisted essentially of three product categories: fabric ( and percent, respectively); apparel ( and percent, respectively); and household products (0 percent each year) (tables and ). Almost all cotton textile exports in both years went to the same three parts of the world: Western Hemisphere ( and percent, respectively); Western Europe (0 and percent, respectively); and Asia-Oceania ( and percent, respectively). Of the million pounds of cotton textile exports shipped to the Western Hemisphere in, apparel ( percent) and fabric (0 percent) were the most important categories. In, million pounds of cotton textiles went to the Western Hemisphere, and apparel ( percent) and fabric ( percent) were also the most important categories. About million pounds went to Western Europe in, of which percent was fabric and percent apparel. In, fabric ( percent) and apparel ( percent) comprised a greater share of the 0 million pounds shipped to Western Europe. Asia and Oceania took 0 million pounds in, of which percent included fabric ( percent), household products ( percent), apparel ( percent), and floor covering ( percent). Shipments to Asia and Oceania in the previous year were million pounds. Four product groups comprised 0 percent fabric and household products ( percent each) and apparel and floor covering ( percent each). Table.-- Raw fiber equivalent cotton exports --~ ~ Western Western Eastern Asia Category Hemisphere : Europe : Europe : Oceania : Africa : ~~:--~~~:---~g~:---~~:--~~~:--~g~:--~~:---~~~:--~g~:--~~:--~~~:--~g~:--~~:--~~~:--~g~:--~~i:--~~~:--~g~: ~:b~ic ~:~ ~ ~~ ~:~ ~ J~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~-~ ~ ~ ~:~ ~ Apparel o z. o"z Household Floor g~~;~i~~d Misc o:o 00 : 0 00 : s~~~~;;-~~;;~-~-c;~;~;:--<;;-p;~~;~t-;dd;-~;~ti~;ii;:-<b;-p;~~;~t-~dd;-h~~i;~~t;ii;:

22 Eight countries accounted for percent of cotton textile exports in both years and were all in the Western Hemisphere and Western Europe: Country Chief product Percent Chief product Percent group group Mexico apgarel apgarel 0 Italy fa ric fa ric Canada yarn and yarn and fabric fabric Dom. Rep. apparel apparel Jamaica apgarel apgarel U.K. fa ric fa ric BelgilMTl fabric fabric Haiti apgarel apgarel II. Germany fa ric fa ric France fabric fabric Wool Textile Exports Wool textile exports in, at. million pounds, were mostly in three product categories: tops, noils, and yams ( percent), apparel ( percent), and fabric (0 percent) (table ). Wool textile exports in,.0 million pounds, had similar characteristics: tops, noils, and yams ( percent), apparel ( percent), and fabric ( percent) (table ). In both years almost all the wool textile exports went to three regions: Asia-Oceania ( percent in and percent in ), Western Hemisphere (0 and percent, respectively), and Western Europe ( and percent, respectively). Of the. million pounds of wool textile products shipped to Asia-Oceania in and the. million pounds in, almost all ( percent and percent respectively) was tops, noils, and yam. About 0 percent was apparel in both years. Western Hemisphere countries took million pounds in consisting of apparel ( percent); yam, tops, etc. ( percent); and fabric ( percent). In these countries took a slightly smaller amount,. million pounds, including apparel ( percent); yam, tops, etc., ( percent); and fabric ( percent). Exports to Western Europe were. million pounds in and. million in. Yam, tops, etc., was the major product category in both years- percent in and percent in. In apparel was percent and fabric percent, while in they were percent each. Seven countries accounted for almost percent of the wool textile exports in and almost percent in : Country Chief product Percent Chief product group Percent group Japan tops, etc. tops, etc. Korea tops, etc. tops, etc. Mexico tops, fabrics, tops, fabrics, apparel Canada apparel tops, fabrics tops, fabrics Italy tops, etc. tops, etc. U.K. tops, etc. tops, etc. 0 Taiwan tops, etc. tops, etc. Table. - Raw fiber equivalent wool exports, Western Western Eastern Asia Category Hemisphere Europe Europe Oceania Africa ~ Mil. Pet. Pet. Mil. Pet. Pet. Mil. Pet. Pet. Mil. Pet. Pet. Mil. Pet. Pet. Mil. Pet. Pet. lbs (a) (b) lbs (a) (b) lbs (a) (b) lbs (a) (b) lbs (a) (b) lbs (a) (b) Yarn Fabric Apparel Household Floor covering and misc Source: Bureau of Census. (a) Percent adds vertically. (b) Percent adds horizontally :~~~~-~===-~~~-!!~~-~~~!~~~~~~-~~~~-~~~~~~!-~?~ Western Western Eastern Asia Category Hemisphere Europe Europe : Oceania : Africa : Yarn Fabric Apparel Household Floor covering and misc. Mil. lbs... Pet. (a) Pet. (b) 0 Mil. lbs Pet. (a) Pet. Mil. (b) lbs Pet. (a) 00 Pet. (b) Mil. lbs Source: Bureau of Census. (a) Percent adds vertically. (b) Percent adds horizontally Pet. (a) 0 Pet. Mil. Pet. (b) lbs (a) Pet. Mil. Pet. Pet. (b) lbs (a) (b)

23 Manmade Fiber Textile Exports Manmade fiber textile exports totaled million pounds in, of which percent was in three product categories: fabric ( percent), floor covering ( percent), and apparel ( percent) (table ). In, exports totaled million pounds, of which percent consisted of: fabric ( percent), apparel ( percent), and floor covering ( percent) (table ). Almost all ( percent) of the manmade fiber textile exports in both years went to three parts of the world: Western Hemisphere ( percent in and percent in ), Asia-Oceania ( in both years), and Western Europe ( and percent, respectively). About million pounds of manmade fiber textile exports went to Western Hemisphere countries in, of which percent was in categories: fabric ( percent), apparel ( percent), and yam ( percent). The comparable Western Hemisphere shipments in were million pounds, of which fabrics was percent, apparel, percent, and yam, percent. Asia and Oceania took million pounds in ; percent was fabric and percent was floor covering. In this area received 0 million pounds, of which fabric was percent and floor covering percent. About 0 million pounds went to Western Europe in. The chief product groups were: fabric ( percent), yam ( percent), and floor covering ( percent). In the previous year million pounds went to Western Europe. The major groups were: fabric ( percent), yam ( percent), and floor covering ( percent). The largest eight countries importing American manmade fiber textile products accounted for percent of the total in and percent in : Country Chief product Percent Chief product Percent group group Canada yarn, fabric, yarn, fabric, floor covering floor covering Mexico fabric, arparel fabric, arparel Saudi Arabia fabric,_f oor fabric,_f oor coverng coverng U.K. yarn, fabric, yarn, fabric, floor covering floor covering China fabric fabric Dom. Rep. fabric, aroarel fabric, aroarel Japan fabric,_f oor fabric,. f oor covern covermg Venezuela yarn fabrc yarn, fabric Italy fabric yarn, fabric

24 LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES Table Page. Cotton acreage, production, and yield, by States U.S. cotton supply and use, by type, 0/-/ Cotton supply and use, all kinds, by months, /-/ Index of prices of selected cotton growths and price per pound of U.S. cotton, c.i.f. Northern Europe, -. C.i.f. Northern Europe price quotations for principle growth of "A" type cotton, weekly, August to date. C.i.f. Northern Europe price quotations for principle growth of coarse count cotton, weekly, August to date Strict low middling spot prices in designated U.S. markets, loan rates, and prices received by farmers for upland cotton Fiber prices: Group B mill points, cotton prices, and manmade staple fiber prices at f.o.b. producing plants 0. Upland cotton and manmade staple fibers: Mill consumption on cotton-system spinning spindles Cotton and manmade fibers: Daily rate of mill consumption, unadjusted and seasonally adjusted Cotton system spindles in place and active, and hours operated U.S. fiber consumption of cotton, wool, and manmade fibers, quarterly, -... U.S. fiber consumption: and per capita, by type of fiber. Manmade fiber production and capacity, quarterly, Domestic shipments of manmade fibers by major category Raw cotton equivalent of U.S. textile imports, monthly... Raw cotton equivalent of U.S. textile exports, monthly... Manmade fiber equivalent of U.S. textile imports, monthly. Manmade fiber equivalent of U.S. textile exports, monthly 0. Raw wool content of U.S. textile imports, monthly Raw wool content of U.S. textile exports, monthly Raw fiber equivalent of U.S. imports for consumption of vegetable fibers other than cotton textiles, monthly 0. Raw fiber equivalent of U.S. imports for consumption of silk textile manufactures, monthly. Raw cotton equivalent of U.S. textile exports by country, Raw cotton equivalent of U.S. textile exports by country, Manmade fiber equivalent of U.S. textile exports by country, Manmade fiber equivalent of U.S. textile exports by country, Raw wool equivalent of U.S. textile exports by country, 0. Raw wool equivalent of U.S. textile exports by country,

25 Table. Cotton: Acreage, production, and yield, by States ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--~~~~~r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~;-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ State Average Average Average Average / / / / ::::::::::::::::::::::::::;:aaa ~~~;;::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::p~~;::::::::::: :::::::::;:ooo b~l;; i::::::::: Alabama Arizona / 0 0 0,,0,0, 0 Arkansas ,00 California /,0,000,0,0,0 0,0,,0,0,,0,,,,0 Florida Georgia Kansas Louisiana Mississippi,00,00,0,000,00,0,,0,,0 Missouri New Mexico / North Carol ina Oklahoma south carol ina Tennessee Texas /,0,0,00,00,0,0,00,00 0,,,,00 Virginia : Upland,, 0,,,,,, 0 0,,,, American-Pima 0,000 0 United States 0,0 0,0 0,0,0,, 0,0, 0,0,,0, / Crop Production report, Nov.,. / Bales of 0-pounds net weight. / Upland only. Table.--u.s. cotton supply and use, 0/ / Area Supply Disappearance Crop year ALL KINDS 0 / / UPLAND 0 / / Planted Harvested,,0, : 0, 0,0 0,0,, : ;os 0,0 0:, EXTRA LONG STAPLE Yield Beginning stocks / Produc tion / l~rts Lbs./,000 acres acre,000 0-lb. bales,, ' 0:0 0, 0:0,,, : 0 0:, : ,000 :, :0,,0,,,,,,,0,,,,,, :, :0,,0, ' :,, :0 0,,0, :,,0 0:0,00,,,,,,, 0,0 Mill use /, ;,,0 :,00,00,,, ;,,,,0 Exports,,,0 : ~ lli :00,000,, ~ ~~ :,,0,,00, 0:,, :,00,00,. 0,,, :,0,0 Unac counted / Ending stocks ~ ~ ~g~ / m:~ m:~ ggg ~ ~gt~ g ~~~ ~~ m m -~ ~,g~:?..0 ' / ii. i:~i i;d. ~;;_. ~~;;~ -~. th;. i:;~;~;. ;;;i~. ;;,;;. ;;;j~;i;d. i~-;~. -'~~~;i. i. ao: ib:. ~;i. ~;i ~ht. ~; i ;:. E;~i~;;. p~;;;;;~~. ~i ~~i~~;:... i.. l~ludes P.reseason ginnings. / Adjusted to August July marketin year. / Difference between ending stocks based on census data ~I Ppr~cedng season's supply less disappearance. / Season average, Including allowance for unredeemed loans. / Estimated. rejected. / USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price forecasts ,, :,0,,,,0 Farm price / cents/ lb / /

26 Table.--Cotton supply and disappearance of all kinds, by months, United States, /-/ / Supply Disappearance Date Beginning stocks / Ginnings Mill Unac- Ending At Public / Imports supply use Exports use counted stocks mills storage / / / ,000 0-lb. net weight bales / Aug,0, 0,0,0 Sep.,,0, 0 0,0 0 0,0 Oct. 0,,0 0, 0,0, Nov. 0, : 0, 0, Dec. 0 0:,0,, 0 0,, Jan. 0 0,0,, 0,0,,0 Feb. 0 0,,0 0,0,,0 Mar.,0,0 0,0,, Apr.,0, 0, 0,, May 0, 0, 0, Jun. :, 0,,, Jul. 0,0,, 0,0 Season,0,,,0,,, 0,0 / Aug.,000,0 0 0, 0,0,0 Sep.,,0, 0,,00, Oct. 0,0 0, 0 0,,00 Nov.,,,, 0,, : Dec.,,,,0,, Jan. :0,, 0,,0 Feb. 0 0,,,0 0 0, 0,, Mar.,0,00, 0, 0,,0 Apr.,,0 0,0 0, May,, 0, 0,, Jun. 0,,, 0,, Jul.,, 0, 0, Season,000,0,0,,,,, / Aug.,,, Sep.,, Oct. / 0,,, 0 :o : ~-- / Compiled from Bureau of the Census data and ad~usted to 0-lb. net weitht bales. / August stocks adjusted to an Auust basis, excludin preseason ginnings. I Adjusted to 0-lb. ba es by use of monthly conversion factors for mll stocks. / Primarly cotton on farms and in transit. Estimated by subtracting public storage and mill stocks from total stocks. / August data include preseason ginnnings. / Adjusted to a calendar month. / Supply less disappearance. End-of-season stocks adjusted by Bureau of the Census data. Differences primarily reflect varying bale weights. Monthly data are rounded. / Preliminary and estimated.

27 Table.--Index of prices of selected cotton growths and price per pound U.S. cotton, c.i.f. Northern Europe, qualities - and ~ Year beginning Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Average August Cents per pound "A" Index / 0.0.S Memphis / Calif./Ariz. / Index / Orleans/Texas / / All ~rices are based on Thursday quotes. / The "A" Index is an average of the cheapeast five types of M -/ " sta~le length cotton offered on the Europ,ean market. / The Memphis and California/Arizona territories are ased on Middlin -/". / The "B' Index is based on coarse grades of cotton varying in staple length from to -/ / Based on SLM cotton. Source: Cotton Outlook, Liverpool Cotton Services LTD.

28 Table. C. i.f. Northern Europe price quotations for principal growth of "A" type cotton Month California/ Memphis Russia China Africa Central Australia Turkey Paraguay Mexico Pakistan II All & week Arizona Territory America Index / u.s. cents per pound Aug Sep Oct Nov / The "A" Index is an average of the cheapest five types of M -/" staple length cotton offered on the European market. =No quotes. Source: Cotton Outlook, Liverpool Cotton Services LTD. Table.--C.i.f. Northern Europe price quotations for principal growth of coarse count cotton Month Orleans/ Pakistan China Russia Turkey Southern Argentina "B" & week Texas Brazil Index / Aug. Sep. Oct. 0 Nov U.S. cents per pound / The "B" Index is based on coarse grades of cotton varying in staple length from " to -/". It is an average of the cheapest three types of seven styles, so marked. =No quotes. Source: Cotton Outlook, Liverpool Cotton Services LTD.

29 Table?.--Cotton: Strict low middling spot prices in designated U.S. markets, loan rates, and prices received by farmers for upland cotton, /-/ Average spot market prices per pound (net weight) / Year Prices received beginning by farmers August / -/ -/ -/ -/ (net weight) inch inch inch inch inch inch / Cents per pound / !. / !. / !. / August September October November December January February March April May June July Season !. Loan rate / / August September October November December Janua,ry February March April May June July Season Loan rate / / August September October / 0.0 Loan rate / Spot market loan rates and rrices are for cotton with micronaire readings of. through.. / Prices do not include an al owance for loans outstandin and government purchases. / ~eighted market average. u.s. rrices based on u.s. monthly prices welghted by monthly marketings during the period August through the fol owing July. / SLM /" average location. / Mid-month price. Source: Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service, Agricultural Marketing Service, and National Agricultural Statistics Service.

30 Table.--Fiber prices: Landed Group B mill points, cotton prices, and manmade staple fiber prices at f.o.b. producing plants, actual and estimated raw fiber equivalent, to Cotton / Rayon / Polyester / Price ratios / Calendar year Raw fiber Raw fiber Raw fiber Cotton/ Cotton/ Actual equivalent Actual equivalent Actual equivalent rayon polyester / / / Cents per pound Percent January 0.. February 0..0 March April 0.. May June July August 0.. September 0.0. October 0.. November 0.. December..0 Average.. January.0.0 February..0 March.. April..0 May..00 June..0 July.. August 0. September.. October / SLM--/" at Group B Mill!?<lints net weight.!. and.0 denier, regular raxon staj:)le.! Reported average market price for.~ denier polyester staple for cotton blending. I Raw fiber ~uivalent. / Actual prices converted to estimated raw fiber equivalent as follows: cotton, divided by 0.0, rayon and polyester, divided by 0.. Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service and trade reports. 0

31 Table.--Upland cotton and manmade staple fibers: Mill cons.ption on cotton-system spinning spindles Manmade Year Cotton's beginning Cotton Rayon Non- fibers share of August and cellulosic fibers acetate , 000 pounds Percent / / ~~~~~~~. /,0, :: z~~~~~~ I I. / August, September, 0,,. October 0,,, :00. November,0 : 00. December : 0,. January n oo 0 0 :0 00. February :,0,0,. March n. April :0 : 0. May :0,,,,0. June,0 0,.0 July, : o:oo :,. Season,,,,,,,,,. / August 0, 0 ',0,,. September, :, 0. October 0,, 0 :0 :. November 0,, 0:,,. December 0,, 0,. January, : 0,0,. February,,0,0,0.0 March,, : 0,00. April,0 :,0. May,0 0,, 0,. June, :,,00.0 July,,0,,,. Season,,,,,, 0,,,. / / August,,, 0. September : 0:. October,,,, 0, / Preliminary. Source: Bureau of the Census.

32 Table 0.--Cotton and manmade fibers: Daily rate of mill consumption on cotton-system spinning spindles, unadjusted and seasonally adjusted Year Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July UPLAND COTTON 0 lb. bales Unadjusted /,0,, 0,0, 0,,,,, /,,, 0, : :,0,, / :,00,,,,,0 0, : 0,,0 :0 /,,0,,,, 0, 0,,,,, /,00,0 / Adjusted / / / / / MANMADE STAPLE Rayon and acetate Unadjusted / / / 0 / :o /, Adjusted / / / / /, 0, 0, 0, 0,0 0, 0,,,,0,,,0, :,,0,,,,,,,0,,,0,0,,,,00,0,, 0, 0,0,,,,,,0, :,0,0, /,0,00,0 NONCELLULOSIC / Unadjusted /, /, /, /,0 /, Adjusted / / / / /,,0 :,0 0 0 I 0,0 :0,00,0,0 /,,0 : :,,, /,, 0 : :,0,, /,0,,0,0,00, :,00,,,,,,,0,0,,,,0,,000 pounds,0,0,00,,,,,,0,,0,0,, 0 :,0,,,0 00,0,0,,,,,,,,,0 0 0,00,,,,,,,,,00,0 0,,,,,,,, 0,0,,,0,,,00,, / Preliminary. / Includes nylon, acrylic and modacrylic, polyester, and other manmade fibers. Source: Bureau of the Census. 0 0,0,,0,0,,,00,,,,00,

33 Table. Cotton system spindles in place and active, and hours operated Spindles In place Active Percentage of active spindles used on percent percent fibers and cotton manmade blends Daily average spindle hours operated Seasonally Actual adjusted fiber spun per spindle hour January February March April May June July August September October November Decerrber January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December , ,000,0 :0,, :0,,,,0, :,,0,,,0,,,,,0,0,,,,,0,0,,0,0,,0,0,,,,,,,,,0,,,0,,,0,, :,,0,0 0 :, :, 0,,,, Percent Pounds January,, February,,....0 March, April, ;....0 May,,....0 June,0,....0 July,,....0 August,, ~=~~~=~-~~ ~~!~~: ~~!~??... ~?:~ ~~:~ ~~:~ ~?~ ~?: :~~---- / Preliminary. Source: Bureau of the Census.

34 Table.--Mill consumption of cotton, wool, and manmade fibers, quarterly, Cotton's share of Year Cotton Wool Cellulosic Noncellulosic manmade fiber total fiber Mill ion pounds (Percent) Q. 0..,.,0.,.. Q. 0..,0.,0.,.. Q..0.,.,.,0.0. Q...,.,.,0..0,...,.,. 0,.. Q...0,.,.,.. Q. 0..,.,0.,.. Q...,.,0.,.. Q...,0.,.0,0..,...,.,.,.. Q..0 0.,.,0.,..0 Q 0..0.,.,.,.. Q 0...,0.,0.,0.. Q.. 0.,0.,.,0.0.,.. 0.,0.,.0,0.0.0 Q ,00.,.0,.0. Q...,.,0.,.. Q...,.,.0,.. Q...0,0.0,0.0,..,...,.,0.,.. Q...0,0.,.,.0. Q.0..,.,.,.. Q /.. 0.,0.,0., / Preliminary. Source: Bureau of the Census and Textile Organon.

35 Table.--u.s. fiber consumption: and per capita, by type of fiber Textile trade / Per capita / Year u.s. Percent domestic Percent and mill of Exports Imports consumption of Mill Domestic fiber use fibers / fibers use consumption Million pounds Percent Million pounds Percent Pounds COTTON,.. 0.,.,. 0...,...,.,. 0...,..0.,0., ,...0,.,.... WOOL MANMADE FIBERS,.l..,.,0....,...,.0,....,.D.., 0.0,... 0.,0...,0. 0,.... FLAX AND SILK / /. /. / / /. /... /..0 / / /. ALL FIBERS / 0, ,0., , ,.0, , ,., , ,., / Raw fiber equivalent of imports and exports of textile products. / domestic consum~tion is u.s. mill cons~tion rlus net textile product trade balance. / July population for =.0 million, =. mi lion, =. million, and =. million. / Less than 0.0 pounds or 0. percent. / Estimated. / Includes flax and silk. Source: Bureau of the Census.

36 Table.--Marvnade fiber production and capacity, -0 / Average Fiber Planned annual Q Q Q Year Q Q Q Q Year Q Q Q Year 0 change capacity GRAND TOTAL ALL Capacity Pr0ducton Percent TOTAL STAPLE Capacity Pr0ducton Percent TOTAL FILAMENT / Capacity Pr0ducton Percent POLYESTER TOTAL Capacity Prix:lucton Percent STAPLE Capacity Pr0ducton Percent FILAMENT Capacity Pr0duct on Percent NYLON TOTAL Capacity Pr0ducton Percent STAPLE Capacity Prix:lucton Percent Fl LAMENT Capacity Prix:lucton Percent OLEFIN TOTAL Capacity Prix:lucton Percent STAPLE Capacity Pr0ducton Percent. FILAMENT Capacity Pr0ducton Percent ACRYLIC STAPLE Capacity Pr0ducton Percent OTHER FIBERS / Capacity Pr0ducton Percent FIBERS /,,~,,~~,,0ll 0 n NONCELLULOSIC TOTAL / Capacity, Producton,0 Percent STAPLE Capacity Pr0ducton Percent FILAMENT / Capacity~ Pr0ducton Percent CELLULOSIC STAPLE ~~~~mon Percent CELLULOSIC FILAMENT ~~~~mon Percent,,0~~,~~~ 0 Million pounds,,,,,0,,, 0,0,0,,, 0,0 0,,rz,~~,~,~~,~~,~~,~ n,,,,,,,,,,,,, :g~,~,~g :~,~,g~,~,,0,,,,,,,0,,,,.oro,:a~,0~~ :~,,a~,,,~~,,0~ , g,~~ 0, g~,~~, ~~,,,rr, ~,~~ ~~,~~, ~~,~~ :, ~,~~ ~~ , 0 0,,,,0,,,,,00 n,0,, 0,,,,,, 0 0 0,00, 0, 0,, ,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,~~,0~~,o~z,~,og~, ~~~,0~,,,,0,,0,,,,,0,,,,g~,o~g,o~g,g~,;oM,,,g~,o~,0,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,oA~,o~g,,o~z,o~,0~~,0~~,o~ Capacity data as of May - / Includes saran and spandex. USDA estimates. / Glass fibers are not included. Source: Coopiled from Textile Organon. Percent

37 woven products: polyester Rayon Olefin Nylon Acetate Acrylic Knit products: Polyester Nylon Acrylic Acetate Rayon Carpets: gmn UU HU nh m:~ m:; m:~ m:g m:~ m:~ wf~ ~ih ~li:~ th tfh ~gn ~H ~~:~ ~!H :~:: Polyester g-~ :. 0 :. :. :. :. 0: 0: Rayon 0. 0: ~?: ~?: ~?: ~?: ~?: ~ ~: ~. : : ;i-fll;~~t-pl~;-;t;p[;:- zi-oata only available for carpets, nylon and polyester. Figures not avai table. source: Textile Organon Table.--Raw cotton equivalent of u.s. textile i~rts, Yarn,.thread, and broad-woven fabric ~~~~~~ ~ ~- ~~~!~::~~:?-~~~~=:~ Broad- Year sewing woven fabric Pile Table Bed Gloves, Lace House- Grand and thread, fabrics damask clothes hosiery, fabric hold and Misc. Floor Knit total month Yarn crochet, 00 Blends and and and and wearing and clothing products cover- fabric i~ rts ~~~~~: :~ _ Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jut. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 0,,0 ~~ m ~:~g~ 0:, 0,0 0,0,,0 ~ m ; '00, ;oo : 0 0, ~m~~ ~~ :~t ::~:: --~~~t ~~~:: ~~::~- ~~~~t: -~:~~t: -~~- :~ ~~ ~~, ,0 o; o; ;,,,,,,,,, 0, 0,0,,,0 0,0,,, zn~~ :,0,,,0,,,,,,,,0,0,0 :, : 0, :0 : :,,0 H~~ :,,, '0 H~ :0 0, 00,0,000 pounds ~ ~ ~u~ : 0,0,,0 lh~ :,,0,,,,, l~ m : :0,,00,0,,,,,,,,,,,,0 0,, 0,0,0,rN~ :0,, ',,,,00 Jan. 0, 0,,,,00,, 0 0,0,,,, 0,0 Feb.,,,,,,, ',0,-,,, Mar., 0,0,,0,, ; 0,00, 0,,, Apr.,0,, ;0,0,, 0,,,, 0,,0 May,,,,0,, 0,, 0,,0 Jun., 0,0, ;,,0 ;,0, ;0,,, Jul.,0 0,0,, ;, 0, 0,,,,, Aug.,,,, ;0 0,,,,0,0,0,,, Sep.,,,Z,,,,,,,, 0,, 0,,,, NA,,,0,,, NA,,,,, ',0,,,, 0,0,0,,,,,0,,, :,,,,,,0 ~ lt,~ 0:,,, 0 :,,,,,00,,,, ' ', ~ :,0 ',,, 0,,,0,,00 ', m m ~~ m:m : 0,, ' 0, 00,, ' '00,,0, :o,0 ;0,0,,,, -- ii"i~~[;:.d;;- t~f,;;t~y- ~;,.j- ~ph~l ;t;~y- f~b~;~;:- t; ~;- ~~~d- f;b~l ~;- -~;.d- ~l~th;-i ~- ~h; ;f-~;[~;- ~~tt~-~~~t~i~i~~- ~th~~-f i ;;;~;:-- i- i;,;;;;-,;;~;- ~;l ~;t;- ;;.d vietv eteens, corduroys, plushes and chenilles, and manufactures ot pile fabrics. / Includes blankets, quilts, bedspreads, sheets, and pillow cases. / nc udes knit and woven underwear and outerwear (collars and cuffs, shirts, coats vests, robes, pajamas and ornamented wearing apparel). / Includes n ebets and nettings, veils and veilings, edging, embroideries, narrow fabrics, and (ace wirldow curtains. ~/ Includes braids (except hat braids) tubing a ls, lacing, wcking, loom harness, t~ble and bureau covers, polishing and ~ust c\oths, fabric wit!) fast edges, cord~( and tassels, garters, ' suspenders and braces corsets and brassieres etc.! Includes belts and beltmg fish nets and nettng; and coated, f led, or waterproof faeries. ~/ Included in miscedaneous product before. / Includes quantities in the tsusa 0 luggage categories. The raw fiber equivalent quantity for January-December, was,0 thousand pounds; January-December,, thousand pounds; January-December,,0 thousand pounds; and anuary-december, 0, thousand pounds. Source: Bureau of the Census.

38 ::::::::: ~~~~~~~~!~~~~~~::::::::::::::::---::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::: ~~~~!~~~~~~: ~~~~~~~:::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::: Table.--Raw cotton equivalent of U.S. textile exports, Year and month Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Yarn,,,, 0,,,0 ', Sewing thread crochet, darning, Twine and em- and broidery cordage cotton yarn,,,,0 00,,0,0 Broad woven fabric standard constructions /,,,, ,, 0,00,,0,0,0,,,,0,, broadwoven fabric, 0,.,0, 0,,0 0, 0 0,,0,, 0,, 0,0,0,0,0,,,,0 Knit fabric,,,, , Blankets, spreads, pillow cases, and sheets Towels, 000 pounds,,0,00,0,0,,, 0, llearing apparel House hold Knit! / than knit / house- lndust- Floor hold and rial coverclothing products articles / /,,,,0,0,0,,0, 0,,0,,,,0 0, ing Grand exports,,,,,0 0,0, 0,,,,0, / Jan.,,,0,,,,0, Feb.,, 0,,0,,0,,,0, Mar.,,,,0 0,,,0,0,0, 0, Apr., 0 0,,0,,,,,0, May, 0,0,,0,0,,, ;,00 Jun.,0 00,0 0,0 0,0,,,,,0, 0 0, ,0,,,,0,0,,0 0 <,,0,,,,0,,0 s:s,,,,, 0,,0,~~~,~~~,,0,, HH :,0,,,,,,,,, 0,00,g~~ ' 0,,,, 0 :,,0,,,0,,,,0,,00,,,0,,,0,,0,,,0,0,00 m~ jj~l m :~ JJM m )J!L.J~ :J~L.:JK jl U~LJm ;Jn tm j~~ljtm.jtm_ I Includes fabrics, tire cord and cloth for export to the Philippines to be embroidered and otherwise manufactured and returned to the United States. / Includes tapestry and upholstery fabrics, table damask pile fabrics, and reants. / Includes curtains and draperies, house furnishings not elsewhere specified. / Includes gloves and mitts of woven fabric. / Includes underwear and outerwear of woven fabric, handkerchiefs, and wearing apparel containing mixed fibers (corsets, brassieres, and girdles, garters, armbands and suspenders, neckties and cravats). / Includes canvas articles and manufactures, braids and narrow fabncs, elastic webbing, waterproof garments, and laces and lace articles. / Includes rubberized fabrics, bags, and industrial belt and belting. / Some categories revised. Source: Bureau of the Census. Table.--Raw manmade fiber equivalent of U.S. textile irp0rts, - Tops, yarn, thread, and woven fabric Primarily manufactured product Year Rayon and Sewing tire Ilea ring apparel Laces month Sliver Yarns thread fabric Broad and Narrow Knit Floor manutops, thrown Yarns and includ woven Knit Not Hand lace fabric fabric cover feeand or spun hand- ing fabric / knit ker arti / ing tures Grand total iftvorts / roving plied work cord chiefs cles / : ~ ~~~~~--!~~~ ~ ~~ ~~ Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.,0 0,,,,,,,,,0,,,0,,,0, 0,,0 0,,0,,0 ' ~l~ ~ ) 0 ~~~ ~~~ ',,,,,,,0,,,,, z m : 0 0,0 0 0,, 000 pounds,,,,0,,,, 0,,,0, 0,,, 0:0 0:,, 0,0, 0,0 0,0,0,,,,,,,,0,,,,0,0,,0,,0,0,,0, 0,,,,0 0,, 0,,0,,,0,,,,,0,,0, 0,,,.,0,,, Jan.,,0,,0,,,0,, 0,,,0 Feb., 0,0,,,,, 0,,00,,0 Mar.,00, 0,0,,, 0,,, 0,, Apr.,, 0,,0,0,,,,0, 0,0, May,~~~,,,0,0, H~ g~,0,,,,m,,,,0,,,0,0,,0,,,,0,,,,00,0,0,,0,,0,0, 0, 0,0,,0,0,,0,,0,0,,,0,,,,$$~,,0,~~~ m, :,, :,0,, 0,0,0,0,, ~ ra, :00 ~~ ~~ 0 < :, : 0:,0, m ~~ m:rz~ :0,.0, ', 0, :,0,,,,0,,, 0,,,,0, i~'l m z ~~~ ~ ~~ l~ ~~g ~~ ~~~ ~t HS ~i m '0 '0 ~~ m lzngg UHJ~ m~-----~~--::m ~;m ~~----~~~---!~~~~--~~~~~--~n~~---~~;m... ~f!;m!;m... m... ~~~~~--~~;m!~t;~?~ m;~~- / Not included in these data are quantities of irp0rted textured non-cellulosic yarn not over 0 turns per inch. / Includes sloves, hosiery, underwear, outerwear, and hats. / Includes veils and veilings, nets and nettin~s. lace window curtains, edging, insertngs, flouncngs allovers, etc., embroderies, and ornamented wearing apparel. / Includes brads (except hat braids), fabrics with fast edges not over ~ inches wde garters, suspenders, braces, tubing cords, tassels, ill nets, webs, seines, and other nets for fishing. / Not elsewhere classified. o/ Includes quantities in the TSUSA luggage categones. The raw fber equivalent quantity for January-Decerrber was 0, thousand pounds; January Decerrber,,00 thousand pounds; January-Oecerrber,, thousand pounds; and January-Decerrber,, tnousand pounds. Source: Bureau of the Census.

39 Table. Raw rnannade fiber equivalent of U.S. textile exports, ~ ~~~ ~~~!~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~~~ ~~~~~~!~~~~~~ ~~~... ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~~~~~! ~~ ~~~~!~~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ Year ~~Pi~e.rYarns ~~~!~~ co~~r:nd ~~e=~- Hosiery w~~e~~ outer f~~~~~h- K~~t ~=b~~~ ~~e~~- :~~~ ~~~~ ~th aild spun and tire cord fabric night wear ings crocheted / ing fac exports roving handwork fabric / wear fabric tures / yarns / Dec. / / Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. : :,,, :,0 ~~~ H~ : 0 :,0, m N~ s:, :,0,,m, 0 0,~~ 0,,, 0,0 :o,, ~ l~ s:,0,0,,0,0,,,0 0 0:00, 0 m:o :,,, ~,~~ : :0 lh~ :,,0 0,0 : :,00,,0,0, ~H~ :0,0, 0,0, 000 pounds,,0,0 0,0,,,,0,,,,,, 0:, 0 0,D 0,0 m H~ :,, m l t~ 0 '~ '0,0,0, H~ :0,00,,,,0 ~ ~~ '0 : 0 0, '~,~~~ 0,,, 0:,,, : 0 0 l l~ :0,00,~~,0,,,0,, N~ :,, ~ m :,,,,00 0,0,, 0:,0,,,0,0,,,0,00,, ~ m 0:,,,,0,,,0 n~ :0,0,00 0,, 0,, 0 :0,,,0 :0 ~NU :,, 0,0,,0 0,,0, 0 :,0,0,,00,,, ~N~ : :0, J~~,0,0, 0,00,0,0,,,,,0 Feb.,00,,,,0,,,00,,,,0, 0 Mar,, 0, 0,, 0,0,0,0, Apr:,o,0 ' ', 0,, '0,,, :, : May, oo : :,,,,,,0,,00, Jun, 0,, ;0,,,, 0,,, i~~: ~:~ ~~~ ~:~~ l~:m ~Hn ~~ l:m ~:~x.~~ l:g~~ u~~ 0:0 u~~ ~H~~ ~u~~!~~:...?~~--~!~~------!~~----~!~~~---~~!~~?... ~~~?~?... ~~~--~!~~~----~!!~~---~!~~~----~!~~~---~!~~~---~~!~~~---~!~~~---~~~~~~---~?!?~!.... / Includes products made from waste. / Includes pile and tufted fabric such as corduroy. / Includes ribbons, trinmings, and braids (except hat braids). / Not elsewhere classified. / Some categories revised. Source: Bureau of the Census. Table 0.--Raw wool equivalent of U.S. textile imports, - / Year and month Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Noils Wastes!,00,0 0,0, 0,0,0 0,,,0,0,,0,0, TORS and advanced wool,,0, Yarns :,0,,,,,,,0 Broadwoven fabric /,0 0 :,0,,,0,,,00, :,, :00 Wool blankets /,,,,0 Wearing apparel... Knit than knit /,000 pounds 0,, 0,00 0,0,, 0,,,,,0, :,,,,, :,,,, 0, 0 0: 0,0,,, 0 : manufactures,0,0,, 0 0, Carpets and rugs,,0, 0,,,,00,, <,0 <, : Knit fabric / / Grand Narrow total fabrics imports / / 0 0 0, 0, :,,0, 0,0, 0,,,0,,,0 0 :0 Jan.,0,0,,,,00 Feb. 0 0, 0, 0,0,0 Mar.,,0 0 ;, 0,,0 Apr. 0 0,0,,,0,0, May,,0,0,,0,0 Jun. 00,,0,,0,, Jul.,,,0,0 0,0, Aug.,00, 0,0,, 0, Sep.,0,,, 0 0,0 --;i i~~i~d;;~~~~t~~t~~;;-~t-~h~i~:-~ip~~~:-~~d-~th;~-~~~i=iik; ;~~i~it; h~i~:--i N~t-i~~i~i~~-~~~;: t!~eludes ple fabric and manufactures, tapestry and upholstery goods, press and billiard cloths. / Includes carr!age and automoble robes, steamer rugs, etc. / Includes laces, lace articles, veils and veilings, nets and nettngs, when reported in pounds. / Included in " Manufactures" for earlier years. Source: Bureau of the Census.