STATEWIDE ANALYSIS MODEL (SAM-V3) June 5, 2014 Janie Temple

Transcription

1 STATEWIDE ANALYSIS MODEL (SAM-V3) June 5, 2014 Janie Temple

2 Introduction Brief SAM History Intro to SAM-V3 functionality Past and Current SAM projects Future additions to SAM Suggestions from model users 2

3 Background of SAM SAM-V1: Completed 2004 Base year 1998 Forecast year 2025 No built in capabilities for interim year or toll analysis SAM-V2: Completed 2011 Base year 2003 Interim and forecast years 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2035 Incorporated intercity toll analysis capabilities Added the TX-NAFF freight model component SAM-V3: Completed 2013 Base year 2010 Interim and forecast years 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040 Interpolated non-standard years supported 3

4 TxNAFF Integration Estimated Rail Tonnage Capacity 4

5 SAM-V3 Update: General Changes All networks were reviewed and updated with current MPO plans Fiscally constrained projects have changed drastically since last update Future road projects as of SAM-V3 5

6 SAM-V3 Update: General Changes Updated to run in TransCAD 6.0 More detail in neighboring states Incorporated recent Workplace Surveys to improve the attraction model 6

7 SAM-V3 Update: Revalidation of SAM-V3 SAM-V3 was revalidated to a new 2010 base year Benefits from newly available data such as 2010 census and the latest available urban area demographics First version of SAM that aligns with a census year Forecast years: 2020, 2030, 2040 Used validation criteria from Travel Model Improvement Program s (TMIP) Validation Manual 7

8 SAM-V3 Update: Automate Multimodal Assignment In SAM-V2, all preliminary steps for the transit, HSR, rail and air were completed in the SAM run Completing assignment took several extra steps In SAM-V3, these steps were integrated into model run Improvements: Simplified these model runs Fewer assumptions made Increased consistency and repeatability of results Freight and Pass. Rail Air Links 8

9 SAM-V3 Update: Demographics Interpolation ? 9

10 SAM-V3 Update: Demographics Interpolation SAM-V3 includes a full demographics interpolation tool For any year between 2010 and 2040 Enhances consistency between different users and projects Create a level playing field as a starting point for studies using SAM Adjustments not set in stone, but subject to the judgment of the modeler 10

11 SAM-V3 Mode Alternatives Highway modes Drive alone, Shared ride 2, and Shared ride 3+ Urban transit Urban bus and Urban rail Intercity modes Intercity rail with drive, rail, and walk access High speed rail with drive, rail, and walk access Air with drive, rail, and bus access 11

12 Past and Current SAM Use TxDOT is currently planning High Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Stated Goals: Speeds 150mph+ Connections to airports, city centers, other rail stations Using features incorporated into SAM-V3 in the recent update Many routes being considered, including Oklahoma City to Laredo or the Valley 12

13 Past and Current SAM Use Two additional High Speed Rail projects are using SAM: o o the Houston-Dallas corridor study and the Dallas-Fort Worth corridor study Located partially along the federally-designated South Central High-Speed Rail Corridor 13

14 Past and Current SAM Use Lone Star Rail District Project 1 (Jacobs Engineering): Analysis of Passenger Flows in Austin-San Antonio Corridor LSTAR study focusing on analyzing the ridership if Union Pacific ROW parallel to I-35 were converted to passenger rail Project 2 (Atkins Global): Analysis of Freight (Truck and Rail) Flows in the same corridor Primarily focused on the effects of freight rail relocation as road/fuel costs increase Currently studying new freight line further east between Taylor and Seguin evaluating many options 14

15 Past and Current SAM Use Lone Star Rail District 15

16 Past and Current SAM Use Rural Transportation Plan (Atkins Global) Adopted June 28 th, 2012 Used to identify and rank the Top 3 Projects per District 16

17 Past and Current SAM Use Rural Transportation Plan (Atkins Global) Rankings were based on All rural projects that would add capacity were input in SAM Travel time improvement, V/C & LOS were calculated for each Commodity flow (in annual tonnage of truck freight) from SAM was also a factor 17

18 Past and Current SAM Use I-69 Innovative Finance Multi-state effort looking into the financing of I-69 Internally tested a segment from Texarkana to Marshall to determine potential future volumes 18

19 Past and Current SAM-V3 Use Project IH 10 Scenario testing Passenger and freight modeling Texas Freight Plan Texas Freight Plan IH 35 to SH 130 Connector Study Groundwork for Dynamic Traffic Assignment development Transloading/Intermodal Feasibility Study for Rio Grande COG Texas Transportation Plan Update South Padre 2nd Causeway and toll revenue studies Lead Jacobs Engineering HDR Engineering CDM Smith and Atkins Global Alliance Transportation Group Center for Transp. Research Parsons Brinckerhoff CH2M Hill CDM Smith 19

20 Future SAM Changes: Incorporate Urban Models The areas with the greatest need for more detail are the urban model areas 20

21 Future SAM Changes: Incorporate Urban Models Potential for improvements: Greater accuracy of results in the urban area More overall sensitivity to changes Greater toll sensitivity Would allow more consistency when comparing results of regional and statewide levels 21

22 Notes to users SAM is a platform All networks, TAZs, demographics, and the mode choice model have been checked and updated to the extent possible for statewide datasets. However, every project is different and takes place in a different location at a different scale. Professional judgment and local knowledge should be used to refine any aspect of the model to better suit the needs of the study. These model changes need to be provided to TPP after project completion for possible addition into the model. 22

23 Statewide Analysis Model Suggestions for future enhancements to SAM are welcome Questions/Comments? 23