Analysis of nuclear relevant information on international procurement and industrial activities for safeguards purposes

Transcription

1 Analysis of nuclear relevant information on international procurement and industrial activities for safeguards purposes Elena Marinova, Malin Ardhammar, Ahmed El Gebaly, Paul-Marc Schot, Matt Ferguson International Atomic Energy Agency, Department of Safeguards International Atomic Energy Agency

2 Where does it stand within SG information sources TRADE & INDUSTRY INFORMATION

3 Information on the State of interest, received from their partner States. Results of the SGOPs in fields activities Materials and technical equipment provided to Member States through TC Projects. Reports of the travel trips of professionals to facilities in Member States. Collected by other departments of the through their activities. Cross Dep. Travel Report TC Data Sources SGOPs Partner State State Information received through the State either through declarations or using other channels. R&D Patent OPEN SOURCES Publications originating from scientific organizations on the progress of their research activities Publications originating from scientific or industrial organizations on the progress of their commercial related research activities. Ind. Cap. Trade Companies directories describing their production capabilities. These include export import data in addition to enquiry information and transaction data. UnCat. Any open source does not fall under any of the other categories. Categorization Mining Conversion Enrichment Fuel Fabrication Reactor Reprocessing etc Analysis

4 Information on the State of interest, received from their partner States. Results of the SGOPs in fields activities Materials and technical equipment provided to Member States through TC Projects. Reports of the travel trips of professionals to facilities in Member States. Collected by other departments of the through their activities. Cross Dep. Travel Report TC Data Sources SGOPs Partner State State Information received through the State either through declarations or using other channels. R&D Patent OPEN SOURCES Publications originating from scientific organizations on the progress of their research activities Publications originating from scientific or industrial organizations on the progress of their commercial related research activities. Ind. Cap. Trade Companies directories describing their production capabilities. These include export import data in addition to enquiry information and transaction data. UnCat. Any open source does not fall under any of the other categories. Categorization Mining Conversion Enrichment Fuel Fabrication Reactor Reprocessing etc Analysis

5 Trade and Industry Analysis: Overview Role in Safeguards State evaluation Sources of information on trade and industry Support tools for collection and analysis Challenges and planned improvements

6 The Nuclear Verification Mandate safeguards objective: Provide credible assurance to the international community that no nuclear material is diverted from peaceful uses to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices Therefore, be able to detect early: Diversion of declared nuclear material undeclared activities at declared nuclear facilities Indicators of undeclared nuclear material or activities anywhere in the State To fulfil verification mandate, draws on diverse information sources: States declarations under SG agreements, information from in-field verification, open and other sources 6

7 Generic Objectives Clandestine Misuse Diversion OBEJCTIVE A B C Undeclared Activity Undeclared Activity Undeclared Activity SOURCES ACTIVITIES WHAT Undeclared Material Undeclared Facility Information analysis Complementary Access Other applicable measures OS Info incl. Trade, Industry Partner State Info OPS Info Undeclared Material Declared Facility Inspection activities DIV Information analysis State Info OPS Info OS Info incl. Trade, Ind. Declared Material Declared Facility Inspection activities DIV NM accountancy State Info OPS Info

8 Information on Trade and Industry Procurement attempts/enquiries; Export/import (EXIM) information originating from Customs declarations; Exports declared by States under AP; Nuclear related industrial capabilities survey

9 EXPORT / IMPORT ACTIVITIES

10 Export/import (EXIM) information Customs declarations are the origin Various OS trade data service providers offer access to EXIM information Trade flows of commodities are categorized according to WCO s Harmonized System (HS); Two main types of EXIM databases are available: Statistical (trade flows between States aggregated over a period) Transactional (individual trade transactions)

11 Export import Data: Sources & Characteristics Source UNComTrade Statistical Global Trade Atlas EuroStat Transactional Databases Transactional Custom Declarations Time Partners Description Quantity Unit Value Yearly Data Monthly Data Date of Shipment 6 digit HS Code State Level >6 digit HS Code Company Level Detailed Text Description Nr of Items / Weight / HS Code Specific Quantity Value per Record Level of details

12 EXIM information: Databases

13 EXIM Information: Characteristics Official Structured Quantitative Independent Global perspective Excellent comparison material for consistency analysis Caveat: not always reliable, specific or accessible

14 EXIM information: Querying Conducted through selection of HS Codes representing product categories HS codes of SG relevance are related to the following: Nuclear material, source material Items listed in Annex II of the AP (especially prepared or designed for nuclear use) Dual-use items, e.g. those listed in INFCIRC/254/Part 2

15 EXIM information: HS Codes used Uranium ores and concentrates CSA Thorium ores and concentrates Natural uranium and its compounds Uranium enriched in U235 and its compounds, plutonium Uranium depleted in U235 and its compounds; thorium Spent (irradiated) fuel elements (cartridge) of nuclear reactors (Nuclear) Fuel elements (cartridges), non-irradiated Heavy water Annex II Nuclear reactors of the AP Nuclear reactor parts Zirconium and articles thereof ( more HS codes related to dual use items are being added)

16 EXIM information: Analysis How are indicators of SG relevant trade flows identified? Considering characteristic commodities value/quantity ratios Mirroring of trading partners statistics Assessing trade flow patterns over time Obtaining more details from transactional databases (if available) Analysis in context of information originating from other sources

17 EXIM information: Supporting tools The Big Table (TBT) Developed jointly by the and JRC Ispra Information hub integrating key documents of relevance to trade analysis version includes the Physical Model Linkage between all documents at the level of items

18 EXIM information: Usage Contributes to the analysis of all SG relevant information: Develop better understanding about nuclear related cooperation between States and development of nuclear programmes over time Identify indicators of incomplete declarations of exports under AP (annex II items, source material) Identify indicators of SG relevant activities Complement industrial capabilities studies

19 CHALLENGES AND PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS

20 Challenges & Planned improvements Rapidly changing information Due to the continuous change in technologies, stability of Information structure. Open Source Trade Exploration Project A project designed to identify, collect, analyse and collate information on trade attempts from open sources. EXIM analysis of more HS Codes currently mainly 14 codes representing most important nuclear activities. Enhance the HS correlation with the Physical Model Enhancing the current correlation to achieve better categorization

21 CONCLUSIONS

22 Conclusions Trade and industry information is valuable for the consistency analysis of all SG relevant information. It can provide indicators of undeclared activities (verification of completeness). The Physical Model is used to facilitate the analysis of information from disparate sources. Enhancements are required to make better use of all sources of SG-relevant information on trade and industry in the SG State evaluation process.