Christine Skold. Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

Transcription

1

2 Christine Skold Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications 2

3 Safe Harbor Statement The Company claims the protection of the safe-harbor for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of The information in this presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. These statements discuss, among other things, expectations with respect to sales, earnings, store growth, capital expenses, margins, debt, payment of dividends and stock repurchases. These forward-looking statements are based on estimates, projections, beliefs and assumptions, and may be affected by risks or uncertainties including, but not limited to, competition, product demand, economic conditions, the ability to open new stores, the effectiveness of merchandising and marketing initiatives, the ability to realize operational efficiencies, inflation, consumer debt levels, governmental approvals, ability to hire and retain qualified employees, weather, etc. The Company intends these forward-looking statements to speak only as of the time of the presentation and does not undertake any obligation to update or revise them after the date hereof or as more information becomes available. Actual results may differ materially from anticipated results described in these forward-looking statements. As a result, all of the forward-looking statements made are qualified by these cautionary statements and those contained in the Risk Factors section of the Company s Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 3

4 Presentation Agenda Our Unique Model Sales Drivers / Customer Centric Engagement Future Capabilities / Enabling Growth Supply Chain Priorities Financial Update Greg Sandfort Steve Barbarick Rob Mills Colin Yankee Kurt Barton 4

5 Greg Sandfort Chief Executive Officer 5

6 6

7 The Power of Our Mission and Values 7

8 We are the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the United States Unique Product Mix Provides Unique Customer Experience Strong Performance Delivers Shareholder Returns Percent of Sales Livestock & Pet 8% 5% Hardware, Tools & Truck Sales (in $ billions) E.P.S. $3.27 Seasonal, Gift & Toys 20% 44% $6.78 Clothing & Footwear $4.23 $1.51 Agricultural Products 23%

9 We serve a unique customer base Our Customer Land and animal owners Self reliant and DIY Growing consumer base Own acreage Have Pets & Animals Garden 9

10 Dependability and Differentiation lead to Customer Loyalty Unique Niche Dependable supplier Differentiated assortment Loyal customer 10

11 2016 Highlights Opened 113 stores Added over 2,000 new Team Member positions Positive comp transaction count 2.6% Operating Margin 10.2% Grew Earnings Per Share 9.0% to $3.27 Acquired 11

12 2017 Expectations Open ~100 stores Full year sales $7.22B - $7.29B Comp sales of 2% - 3% Operating Margin decline of bps Net Income of $445M - $457M Earnings Per Share growth of $ $

13 Current trends continue to produce earnings growth Comp Sales last 5 years E.P.S. last 5 years 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% yr avg = 3.7% e $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $- 5 yr CAGR = 16.7% e Comp Sales last 5 quarters E.P.S. 5 quarter comparison 6.0% $ % 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 $1.00 $0.50 $ Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

14 Strategic Insight The Retail Industry is Shifting The retail landscape is far broader than it once was and continues to change based on customer behaviors. From To Shopper Consumer Shift Need Stuff Self Conformity Community Experience Customization Retailers Strategy Shift Product-led Strategy Mass Marketing Creating Demand Marketing Driven Store as Place Customer-led Strategy Personalization Deliver to Demand Fulfillment Driven Store as Brand 14

15 Evolution of the Business Tactical improvements Out Here lifestyle focus Sales and Margin Drivers TVS / continuous improvement Technological Improvements Price Optimization Warehouse Management Optimization Digital platform Foundational Capabilities Expanded fulfillment options Neighbors Club launch Analytical platforms Customer Centric Integration Single view of the customer Channel agnostic Convenience and personalization 15

16 Framework for continued growth and evolution Increase our Business Store growth Petsense Driving same store sales Customer Centric Engagement Seasoned Advice / Personalization Supporting the Lifestyle Improved Capabilities Enabling Growth Integrated customer experience Expanded assortment Analytics that drive decision making Customer Centric Supply Chain Scale to meet demand End to end efficiency Integrated fulfillment 16

17 Steve Barbarick President and Chief Merchandising Officer 17

18 Framework for continued growth and evolution Increase our Business Store growth Petsense Driving same store sales Customer Centric Engagement Seasoned Advice / Personalization Supporting the Lifestyle Improved Capabilities Enabling Growth Integrated customer experience Expanded assortment Analytics that drive decision making Customer Centric Supply Chain Scale to meet demand End to end efficiency Integrated fulfillment 18

19 Our stores are located where our customers and team members live Leading Rural Lifestyle Retailer Over 1,600 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states Stores located in areas surrounding major metropolitan areas Store locations within a 50-mile radius of Atlanta, GA 19

20 Increasing our business through store growth 164/ / / /899 Tractor Supply Store Count 4Q16 / Opportunity = DC Locations Total (Tractor Supply only): 1,582 / 2,500 20

21 Increasing our business through same store sales C.U.E. New Products Localization Driving Sales Exclusive Brands 21

22 Consumable, Usable, Edible Products Drive Footsteps C.U.E. Core assortments Most dependable supplier Grow market share High in-stock levels Price management Expand assortments 22

23 New Products Keep the Assortment Fresh New Products Structured in-store test program E-commerce test and learn Open buying days Category resets Expansion of programs 23

24 Localization Drives Customer Loyalty Localization Chain vs site philosophy Relevant assortments Brand preferences Customer feedback Assortment analytics 24

25 Exclusive Brands Provide Choices and Value Exclusive Brands ~30% of sales Brand development approach Value proposition Opportunity for growth 25

26 Supporting our Exclusive Brands through video For those joining via webcast, please click on the 4health and Traveller videos in the Resources section. 26

27 Framework for continued growth and evolution Increase our Business Store growth Petsense Driving same store sales Customer Centric Engagement Seasoned Advice / Personalization Supporting the Lifestyle Improved Capabilities Enabling Growth Integrated customer experience Expanded assortment Analytics that drive decision making Customer Centric Supply Chain Scale to meet demand End to end efficiency Integrated fulfillment 27

28 Consumer Centric Engagement Seasoned Advice / Personalization Supporting the Lifestyle Improved Capabilities Dependable know-how and expertise National Partnerships Mobile Capabilities Enhanced online content Sponsorship of Community Events Geo-Waving our Messaging Expansion of Customer Loyalty Social Connection & Ambassador Program Digital Impressions 28

29 Consumer Centric Seasoned Advice Providing the know-how our customer needs the way they want it Chicken Chat Q&A Improved Product Content 29

30 Consumer Centric Personalization Understanding our customer and engaging in timely, relevant communication Currently in 625 stores Over one million members ~50% of members are new to our database ~80% of s collected are new to our database Attribution rates significantly improved 30

31 Consumer Centric Supporting the Lifestyle Supporting our customers passions and what they value 31

32 Consumer Centric Our Communities Online Engaging with our customer emotionally and on their terms 32

33 Consumer Centric Improved Capabilities Evolving our capabilities to increase top and bottom line Geo-targeting Ad Versioning North ~100M visitors to website; 62% from mobile Over 15M store locator queries; 50% from mobile Using mobile in stores to drive sales South 4.5 Billion Digital Impressions 33

34 Rob Mills Senior Vice President, Chief Information Officer 34

35 Framework for continued growth and evolution Increase our Business Store growth Petsense Driving same store sales Customer Centric Engagement Seasoned Advice / Personalization Supporting the Lifestyle Improved Capabilities Enabling Growth Integrated customer experience Expanded assortment Analytics that drive decision making Customer Centric Supply Chain Scale to meet demand End to end efficiency Integrated fulfillment 35

36 Enabling Growth Evolving with our Customer Integrated Experience The customer experience across any interaction with Tractor Supply Company Improved Customer Satisfaction Scores Increased Sales Expanded Assortment Additional products in Top of Mind and Top Line Categories Increased Conversion Analytics that Drive Decision Making Turn insights into decisions and actions that drive the business Increased AOV online & in-store 36

37 Enabling Growth Integrated Customer Experience VISION VALUE PROPOSITION KEY INITIATIVES Create an experience where the customer receives the same legendary service and great products regardless of how they shop Drive sales and margin New growth opportunities Improve customer engagement Findability Improvements Simplified Checkout Subscription Orders Team Member Mobility In-Store Kiosk ANYTIME ANYWHERE ANYWAY 37

38 Enabling Growth Expanded Assortment VISION VALUE PROPOSITION KEY INITIATIVES Endless aisle assortment is available in-store, online or through our customer service center all channels Increased in-store and online sales Optimized store space utilization ($/ft.) Increased ability to test new products Product Information Management Expand our assortment in key categories through: Extended assortment Long Tail assortment In Store Space Utilization & Experience Extended Assortment Long Tail Assortment Availability 38

39 Enabling Growth Analytics Drive Decision Making VISION VALUE PROPOSITION KEY INITIATIVES Real time ability to make decisions and to initiate authentic, relevant customer conversations Drive sales & margin Increased customer engagement Productivity improvements Customer Analytics Campaign Analytics Competitive price intelligence Loyalty Social Media Platform Social Engagement Personalized Experience Loyalty Optimization Pricing Analytics 39

40 A Customer Scenario Kelly and Joe recently purchased 6 baby chicks at Tractor Supply during a Chick Days Promotion to provide eggs for their family. Kelly searches her Google app looking for Flock Protection. She clicks on a TSC link offering basic tips for raising chickens and learns that a chicken coop might be the answer. A Typical Tractor Supply Customer Family of four Own a small plot of land in a rural community Want to manage land effectively Environmentally conscious Kelly places an order for a coop that fits her needs and chooses to pick it up in store. Later that evening, Kelly posts a picture of her newly installed coop on Pinterest. She then watches several TSC YouTube videos on backyard chickens and is convinced that a chicken coop is needed. Meanwhile, based on her browse behavior, Kelly receives an from TSC highlighting coops available online & in-store. While picking up her coop, the store Team Member is prompted to remind Kelly that it has been 2 weeks since she purchased feed she is grateful for the reminder and purchases 2 bags. 40

41 Customer Scenario Video For those joining via webcast, please click on the Customer Scenario video in the Resources section. 41

42 Enabling Growth Always Moving Forward Seamless, integrated customer experience Expanded assortment online & in-store Customer engagement & analytics Product information & content Technology investment to digitize TSC Continuing to support growth 42

43 Colin Yankee Senior Vice President, Distribution and Logistics 43

44 Framework for continued growth and evolution Increase our Business Store growth Petsense Driving same store sales Customer Centric Engagement Seasoned Advice / Personalization Supporting the Lifestyle Improved Capabilities Enabling Growth Integrated customer experience Expanded assortment Analytics that drive decision making Customer Centric Supply Chain Scale to meet demand End to end efficiency Integrated fulfillment 44

45 Customer Centric Supply Chain Reliable and in-stock as the most dependable supplier Responsive to the seasonal and local needs of our customers Resilient to efficiently deliver a diverse assortment... Anytime, Anywhere, Anyway 45

46 Customer Centric Supply Chain Scale To Meet Demand TSC Distribution Center Mixing Center Del s Distribution Center 46

47 Customer Centric Supply Chain Scale To Meet Demand Waverly, NE Expansion TSC Distribution Center Mixing Center Del s Distribution Center 47

48 Customer Centric Supply Chain Scale To Meet Demand Northeast DC Store replenishment Ecommerce fulfillment Upstream inventory TSC Distribution Center Mixing Center Del s Distribution Center 48

49 Customer Centric Supply Chain End to End Efficiency Current Import Flow Direct Import to DCs Allocate initial set & replenishment product to all DCs Warehouse then ship Stores receive comingled replenishment & seasonal product Future Import Flow Import Transload Center Initial set to forward DCs Responsive replenishment from 3PL WMS enabled flow-through increases DC productivity Store ready pallets 49

50 Customer Centric Supply Chain End to End Efficiency Mixing Center Concept Eliminate vendor direct trucks that overload backrooms More frequent replenishment = higher in-stocks Reduce total inventory from supplier to backroom Mixing Center Locations 2015: Longview, TX & Seguin, TX (TSC Operated) 2017: Fort Worth, TX (Third party logistics provider) Future Potential in Southeast and Northeast 50

51 Customer Centric Supply Chain Integrated Fulfillment Goal: Leverage DCs as most efficient method to reach 90% of the US population < 2 days Large Item Fulfillment (i.e. Safes, Coops, etc.) Current: All distribution centers Digital Fulfillment Points Current: Franklin, KY 2017: Casa Grande, AZ 2018: Northeast DC Additional Capabilities Home delivery choices Ship from store fulfillment Enabled by integrated inventory, order management, and logistics execution systems 51

52 Logistics Initiatives Timeline DFW Mixing Center West Coast Import Center East Coast Import Center Responsive Waverly, NE Expansion Northeast Distribution Center Reliable Resilient The Customer Centric Supply Chain Integrated Fulfillment Warehouse Management System Upgrade Lead Time & Order Management Enhancements

53 Kurt Barton Chief Financial Officer 53

54 Strategic priorities will drive long-term performance targets HSD Sales Growth Increase our Business Store growth Petsense Driving same store sales Customer Centric Engagement Seasoned Advice / Personalization Supporting the Lifestyle Improved Capabilities Enabling Growth Integrated customer experience Expanded assortment Analytics that drive decision making Customer Centric Supply Chain Scale to meet demand End to end efficiency Integrated fulfillment bps OM Growth Return to Shareholders Low DD EPS Growth 54

55 Long-term Initiatives Sales Gross Margin Reduced Cost Store Growth / Sales Drivers / Customer Service Investment Gross Margin Drivers Continuous Improvement Customer Relationship Management (CRM) / Neighbors Club Procurement / Purchasing Power Systems Merchandising, Customer and Pricing Data Analytics Supply Chain Technology and Infrastructure Investment / Alternative Fulfillment Options Omni-channel digital and customer centric enhancements 55

56 High Single Digit Sales Growth HSD Sales Growth Store Growth ~ 100 Tractor Supply stores per year ~ 15% - 20% Petsense store growth per year Same Store Sales Sales drivers Digital enhancements Customer personalization and convenience 56

57 Driving Gross Margin Improvements Price Management bps OM Growth Exclusive Brands Inventory Management Driving Gross Margin Strategic Sourcing 57

58 Operating efficiencies support sales and margin driving investments bps OM Growth Investments Supply Chain Infrastructure Digital Platform / Systems Customer Service Investment Petsense Energy Management Marketing Expense Management Product information and vendor onboarding Continuous Improvement - TVS Efficiencies Balanced approach to drive sales, margins and operating efficiencies 58

59 Low Double Digit EPS Growth Sales Growth New stores Same store sales Low DD EPS Growth Operating Margin Capital Allocation Gross Margin Balanced investments Depreciation Execute Long-term Capital Strategy Leverage & Interest 59

60 Consistent Capital Allocation Targets Investing for Growth ~ $250m - $300m annually Dividend ~ 30% Payout Ratio $0.24 per share quarterly (current) Reinvest in the Business Shareholder Value Share Repurchase ~ 2.5% to 3.5% Net Shares Reduction annually ~ $300m - $400m annually Dividend Share Repurchase 60

61 Capital Expenditures will shift slightly ~ $300m 14% Capital Expenditures (4-year average) ~ $200m 8% 14% 20% 15% 20% 26% Corporate/other Existing stores Information Technology Logistics New and relocated stores 43% 40% Historical Future (est) 61

62 Strong Cash Flow Funds Capital Allocation $700 $600 $500 Cash Flow from Operations Reinvest in the Business $400 $300 $200 $100 Free Cash Flow CapEx Dividend Shareholder Value Share Repurchase $ e e 62

63 Consistent Share Repurchase and Dividend Execution (in millions) $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ $145 $103 $123 $84 $68 $293 $332 $129 $298 $218 $160 $236 $ e e Net shares** Petsense Dividend Share Repurchase Program Capital Expenditures Net shares* *Net shares represents weighted average shares outstanding **Targeted reduction of 2.5% - 3.5% annually 63

64 Leverage and ROIC Long-term Expectations ROIC 2017 factors Target 20 bps annual growth long-term Leverage Current Credit Facility - $700m, $300m Accordion Lease Adjusted Leverage Ratio at or below 2.0x 64

65 Reasons to Invest in Tractor Supply Differentiated Business Niche Loyal and growing customer base Unique products and services Customer Centric Clear strategic plan & growth opportunities New stores Evolving mix of products and services Expanding digital and fulfillment capabilities Data driven analytics Balanced approach to managing business & capital allocation Managing growth investments Dividend growth Share repurchase program 65

66