Hypothesis testing. Effectuation. Startup Experience 2017 Learn to be entrepreneurial, learn to drive change.
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1 Hypothesis testing Effectuation Startup Experience 2017 Learn to be entrepreneurial, learn to drive change.
2 Hypothesis based experimentation Image:
3 What should we study next? Infinite amount of options You cannot study all You must make a choice on What to study How to study it effectively
4 What is an hypothesis?
5 A statement Correctness unknown Can be tested Is relevant
6 Problem Hypothesis 1 Sub-hypothesis A Sub-hypothesis B Hypothesis 2 Sub-hypothesis C.
7 Types of hypothesis Common truths Critical Quantitative Trivial
8 People have a problem transporting big items People Top level is trivial Types of people = customer segments very critical have a problem One or more? Are they real problems?
9 People have a problem transporting transporting big items How far is transporting? What modes of transport are transporting? big items How big is big? Quantitative hypothesis
10 What hypothesis should we test?
11 Problems before solutions Most critical first Resources available
12 How should we test an hypothesis?
13 ents
14 Javelin board
15 Book keeping tool Identify hypothesis Plan experiments Document results
16 Current design = hypothesis Discover underlying assumptions Assumption = something that must be true in order for the design to be valid Select most critical assumptions Invent ways to test the assumptions Define success criteria for tests
17 Design ent: CUSTOMER PROBLEM SOLUTION ASSUMPTIONS METHOD SUCCESS CRITERION ent #1: ent #2: ent #3: ent #4: ent #5:
18 Design ent: CUSTOMER PROBLEM SOLUTION ASSUMPTIONS METHOD ent #1: Huuto.net buyer Get product home none yet Over 0.5 m3 or 20 kg problem Show boxes in Sello SUCCESS CRITERION Collect 50 peoples opinions ent #2: ent #3: ent #4: ent #5:
19 Design ent: CUSTOMER PROBLEM SOLUTION ASSUMPTIONS METHOD ent #1: ent #2: ent #3: ent #4: Huuto.net buyer Huuto.net buyer Get product home Get product home none yet Use van Over 0.5 m3 or 20 kg problem Van company drivers would participate Show boxes in Sello Nego. with Van company SUCCESS CRITERION Collect 50 peoples opinions Pilot agreed ent #5:
20 Design ent: CUSTOMER PROBLEM SOLUTION ASSUMPTIONS METHOD ent #1: ent #2: ent #3: ent #4: Tori.fi buyer Get product home Tori.fi buyer Get product home Tori.fi buyer Get product home none yet Use van Use van offpeak hours Over 0.5 m3 or 20 kg problem Van company drivers would participate Customers satisfied with off-hours delivery Show boxes in Sello Nego. with Van company Pretend to sell sofa on Tori.fi and offer delivery SUCCESS CRITERION Collect 50 peoples opinions Pilot agreed 2/10 customers would add delivery
21 6. Pitch 1. Derive most critical hypothesis 5. Update BMC + other material 2. Design experiments to test hypothesis 4. Anayze experiment results 3. Execute experiments with real users
22 How to spend your time User research Testing and validating Help and support Design Working on details Co-operating JavelinB Test (with customer) Build (designing)
23 Group exercise 1 Identify at least 3 hypothesis about your idea Prioritize them based on Criticality Uncertainty
24 Image:
25 Creativity Ideation Maximum uncertainty Selection Validation Project timeline Good solution
26 ?!? Interview Relies on verbal communication
27 ?!! Prototyping Enhances verbal communication with artifacts
28 Simple terminology (in this context) Artifact => prototype Using an artifact as part of user research => Prototyping
29 What is a prototype? A simplified model (of a product or service) Mostly also a partial model Information about the entity being modeled Cheaper Faster Results always (more) unreliable than real life Challenge is to understand how (un)realiable
30 Results of validation Real customer + opinion - False negative False positive - + Validation result
31 Different prototypes
32 The magic of the prototype Increase understanding Better test subject engagement Reduce social and other biases
33 The two outcomes of prototyping Planned outcomes Evaluation results Unplanned outcomes Serendipity Require listening Open mind
34 Group exercise 2 For one of your current ideas, come up with 2 different prototypes to test your hypothesis
35 Prototyping ideas
36 Make people do stuff
37 Solving tasks/puzzles
38 Storyboard as prototype
39 DIY design ent #1: Create your own interactive bank card
40 Benchmark
41 Physical
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