Ameren Illinois Real-Time System Loss Analysis

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1 Ameren Illinois Real-Time System Loss Analysis EMMOS Keith Hock- Director, Transmission Technical Services and Operations Planning, Ameren Service Jason Iacobucci- President, PowerRunner

2 Overview System Loss Study Analysis Real Time Loss Analysis and Processes Project and Processes Ameren Long-Term Strategy Locational and Temporal Valuation (i.e. DLMPs)

3 Road Loss to Calculation DSO Grid Operations Strategy

4 System Loss Study Background Ameren Illinois needed to update its System Loss Analysis (SLA) to more accurately reflect losses by voltage level Analysis needed to be complete in 6 months to meet Regulatory Filing schedule Engineering group estimated the study would take monthsconsistent with previous studies New SLA methodology was conceived and collaborated on by: Ameren Transmission Technical Services Operations Planning group Regulatory group PowerRunner

System Loss Analysis Business Drivers Topology and usage patterns have changed significant system rebuild, retirement of coal gen, integration of wind,

dynamically changing system over coming years aging infrastructure replacement retirement and decreased utilization of fossil generation build-out of

5 System Loss Analysis Business Drivers Topology and usage patterns have changed significant system rebuild, retirement of coal gen, integration of wind, loss of industrial load Eliminate the need to do annualized SLA studies in the future SLA methodology to support hourly financial settlement Consider dynamically changing system over coming years aging infrastructure replacement retirement and decreased utilization of fossil generation build-out of distribution system to accommodate Distributed Energy Resources (DER), EVs, etc. Loss calculations are key components in DER valuation and retail locational pricing

System Loss Analysis Project Scope Aggregation of Service Point-level hourly usage for calendar year 2015 Usage from PowerRunner Platform-over 13B hours of data Loss

3 Million Service Points) Primary (~1,300 Service Points) High Voltage (172 Service Points) Because of Granular data Study was able to: Isolate Illinois Utilities:

6 System Loss Analysis Project Scope Aggregation of Service Point-level hourly usage for calendar year 2015 Usage from PowerRunner Platform-over 13B hours of data Loss Study Aggregation Groups: Secondary (~1.3 Million Service Points) Primary (~1,300 Service Points) High Voltage (172 Service Points) Because of Granular data Study was able to: Isolate Illinois Utilities: CILCO, CIPS and IP Use Service Point-level hourly AMI Data where available, else use Service Point-level Meter Load profiled to hourly using class average shapes Net out of the System Load those Service Points in Wholesale Loss Classes in the Optimization Data Set Account for Company Use Load

System Loss Equation Derivative of loss formula I 2 R: y=t+(a h +b h GSL 2 )H+(a p +b p GSL 2 )P+(a s +b s GSL 2 )S SL where: a: Loss Factor No load losses b: Loss Factor loaded or inductive

7 System Loss Equation Derivative of loss formula I 2 R: y=t+(a h +b h GSL 2 )H+(a p +b p GSL 2 )P+(a s +b s GSL 2 )S SL where: a: Loss Factor No load losses b: Loss Factor loaded or inductive transient losses SL: System Load GSL: Gross System Load (includes Wholesale loads) H/P/S: High/Primary/Secondary Voltage Metered Load T: Transmission Voltage Metered Load y: equation value; will always minimize to 0

elements: top the given System Load middle the calculated load bottom the recorded error

8 System Loss Analysis Optimization Results The optimization starts at a given initial point and is then used to solve a system of nonlinear equations In the graphs, the three elements: top the given System Load middle the calculated load bottom the recorded error Optimization uses the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in order to find the near zero value of the system

9 System Loss Analysis Verification Service Point Metered Load was grossed up using Calculated Average Loss Factors (SEC, PRI, HV) and Compared to the measured Hourly System Load

10 System Loss Analysis Summary AMI or profiled service point and system load data to calculate hourly system loss factors for each voltage class Location specific losses - further refined by leveraging upstream SCADA data to determine loss factors by voltage class, circuit On-demand loss analysis application calculating losses for every hour-not just on a few peak hours-can be performed in seconds, not months eliminating need for future static planning efforts Project completed in 2 months

11 Road Loss to Calculation DSO Grid Operations Strategy

12 Real Time Losses Project Objective Real Time Losses (RTL) project is to enhance static distribution loss factor calculation with an hourly calculation using the analytics approach demonstrated in the SLA project Three initial forecast functions being delivered as part of the RTL project 1. Top-down System Load forecast 2. Bottom-up Service Point level forecasts 3. Day-Ahead Loss Factor forecasts- using forecasted System Load and Service Point/ Voltage Class forecasts 12

13 Real Time Losses Drivers Ameren needed a way to eliminate DUFE Current settlements allocate Distribution System Unaccounted for Energy (DUFE) to scalar meters only Once AMI reaches high penetration there will be no meters to which to allocate DUFE Ameren needed a way to enable suppliers to create accurate demand bids Current DUFE allocation is arbitrary and unpredictable causing volumetric and price risk for suppliers Ameren needed a way to settle Company-Use load explicitly and remove it from distribution losses ICC ordered Ameren to procure Company-Use load via competitive process

14 Real Time Losses Benefits RTL benefits were quantified and estimated to generate over $2.5M in annual value via Fully automated on-demand solution eliminates the need for costly annualized loss studies Eliminating the risk of loss studies becoming outdated due to changes in topology, load characteristics, generation mix and time Enabling Short-term loss forecasts for Retail Energy Suppliers and Ameren Procurement to create more accurate demand bids and reduce volume and price risk Accurate long-term losses forecasts enable higher quality resource and system planning investments

15 Road Loss to Calculation DSO Grid Operations Strategy

Tip of the Iceberg Real Time Loss is a key component of a DLMP transactive energy platform Combining RTL with an asset-level forecasting engine creates a gateway

every single feeder circuit on the system -true accounting of where all the kilowatt hours are going - not just by system voltage class, but by individual feeder

16 Tip of the Iceberg Real Time Loss is a key component of a DLMP transactive energy platform Combining RTL with an asset-level forecasting engine creates a gateway to a host of strategic initiatives including price signals that will determine where power is most valuable at any time of the day Capable of loss calculation on every single feeder circuit on the system -true accounting of where all the kilowatt hours are going - not just by system voltage class, but by individual feeder circuits Input to DER locational pricing models to determine where to incent new DER where needed - and converse case where it contributes marginal value or no value

Reducing AMI Latency to Improved Near-real Time Situational Awareness

Reducing AMI Latency to Improved Near-real Time Situational Awareness Ameren Keith Hock, Director of Transmission Technical Services and Operations Planning PowerRunner Jason Iacobucci, President Conference