Retail: Evolution or Revolution? Chris Macke Senior Real Estate Strategist March 18, 2013
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1 Retail: Evolution or Revolution? Chris Macke Senior Real Estate Strategist March 18, 2013
2 CBRE Page 2 I Will Focus On Two Forces
3 And One Question Mark = or CBRE Page 3
4 CBRE Page 4
5 Which Retailer Is More Vulnerable to E-Commerce? Or Or Or Or Or CBRE Page 5
6 Which Portfolio Should You Pay More for? A Or B CBRE Page 6
7 Stress Testing Comes to Retail Retailer E-Commerce Exposure Rating (RECER) tool A rating/ranking tool that assesses individual retailer e- commerce vulnerability, the RECER tool Rate individual retailers based on their current e-commerce exposure Rate national retailers based on their estimated future e-commerce exposure CBRE Page 7 % of portfolio income highly exposed to e- commerce? % of portfolio anchor tenants exposed to e-commerce?
8 CBRE Page 8
9 Healthcare Spending Healthcare costs eating up larger and larger share of PCE s 25% 20% 15% 16.0% % Spent on Healthcare 20.1% 10% 5% 0% CBRE Page 9
10 50% Greater Than E-Commerce Sales Source: U.S. Census Bureau, B.E.A., CBRE Global Research and Consulting CBRE Page 10
11 CBRE Page 11 Retailers Capitalizing On This
12 What The Future Holds At A Minimum Source: Internet Retailer ( B.E.A., CBRE Global Research and Consulting CBRE Page 12
13 CBRE Page 13 Enter The Baby Boomers
14 Baby Boomers Always On The Move Moved to suburbs and suburban retail flourished. Retailers like Sears who followed them prospered and became dominant CBRE Page 14
15 Now Moving Into Lower Spending Segments CBRE Page 15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS )
16 And More of Their Spending Will Be Healthcare Related Source: DCD # of MD Visits Annually Per Pa:ent CBRE Page 16
17 Impact Downward pressure on retail spending = Increased spending on healthcare CBRE Page 17
18 Follow The Money MEDTAIL + CBRE Page 18
19 Medtail = Complementary Parking Needs What do medical providers need? Significant parking ratios What do shopping centers provide? Significant parking ratios? CBRE Page 19
20 Medtail = Increased Daytime Traffic When do shopping centers need more traffic? M-F 9-3 When do medical providers generate the majority of their traffic? M-F 9-5.and it is CAPTIVE traffic. CBRE Page 20
21 Medtail Not Just About Baby Boomers Dentists Orthodontists Optometrists Pediatricians etc. CBRE Page 21
22 Medtail Not Just About Doctors Hearing Aid Centers Medical Supply Stores Physical Therapy Centers Wellness Centers CBRE Page 22
23 Medtail Not Just About Run Down Centers CBRE Page 23
24 Medtail Can Increase Trade Areas Healthcare plans often require people to travel outside their usual shopping areas to go to in plan medical providers. As a result shopping centers can draw from larger areas. CBRE Page 24
25 Medtail Can Address Hard To Lease Suites Due to the destination nature of healthcare providers shopping center suites with inferior visibility, limited signage, narrow dimensions and/or poor positioning such as in elbows can be logical locations for healthcare providers. CBRE Page 25
26 Medtail Can Increase Center Cash Flow Stability Medical providers generally sign longer term leases and have a higher retention rate CBRE Page 26
27 Follow The Money + CBRE Page 27
28 Christopher Macke Chris comes to CBRE with more than 20 years of real estate experience. His experience includes real estate development, financing, acquisitions and advising various regulatory agencies. He is a Senior Real Estate Strategist for the Investment Consulting group within the America s Research team. Chris delivers investment opinions and insights to institutional investors with the aim of helping them develop a house view. Chris holds a B.A. in Political Science from the University of Southern California, where he specialized in political campaign strategy and finance. He earned a Masters of Business Administration from Indiana University s Kelley School of Business specializing in Finance. chris.macke@cbre.com CBRE Page 28
29 Commercial Real Estate Services, Worldwide Thank You CBRE Global Research and Consulting 260 Franklin Street, Suite 400 Boston, MA Tel: Fax:
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