COMPLEX DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL

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Cuthbert Summers
5 years ago
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1 COMPLEX DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL And how unbiased, statistically sound data can help reduce backorders GfK

2 Long lead times, large inventories in the supply chain & large backorders at the same time Manufacturer Inventory (1-2 months) Distributor Inventory (1-2 months) Inventory at Retail (1-2 months) Demand signal from end consumer takes too long to get back to mfr. to trigger production of right sku/right quantity 2

3 Has anyone worked in the CPG Industry, Auto Parts or Consumer Electronics? The CPG Industry has had sell out data for decades Although in 30 countries in the world, GfK has successfully implemented sell out tire panels 3

4 Global Tires Panels Currently operating in 30 countries Europe West Austria Netherlands (new) France Spain Germany Portugal Italy UK North America USA (in process) Europe East Czech Rep. Romania Greece Russia Hungary Turkey Kazakhstan Ukraine Poland South America Brazil (in process) Africa Egypt Middle East Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Asia Pacific Australia (Future) Japan (Future) Taiwan (Future) Indonesia (Future) China & Malaysia Philippines S. Korea Thailand India 4

5 US is an important market 40% of global demand 40% GfK was approached/ encouraged by global players to launch the retail panel in the US We chose the Independent Channel because it was the largest & hardest MTD, IBIS and consumer data 5

Universe GfK Retail Tracking Production Cycle Define Universe

6 GfK s Production Methodology Define product category Reporting & Servicing Define channels Data QC and Extrapolation to Universe GfK Retail Tracking Production Cycle Define Universe Data aggregation from sample Select a Sample Representative of Universe 6

GfK s Strategy The impartial broker of sell out data providing trends and insights to manufacturers, dealers and the financial community Code their data to GfK code plan Deliver meaningful reports on

7 GfK s Strategy The impartial broker of sell out data providing trends and insights to manufacturers, dealers and the financial community Code their data to GfK code plan Deliver meaningful reports on their business Working with 39 POS companies Benchmark their performance against industry Easy to share data Assign Acct. Mgr. to provide ongoing service GfK is the impartial broker of sell out data providing trends and insights to dealers 7

8 Hire an industry legend Bring him out of retirement to promote our program to tire dealers John Gamauf former President of Bridgestone Inducted into the Tires Hall of Fame

Tire Group, Bridgestone Americas Tire Operations. We see the GfK point-of-sale panel and database as game changers for the tire industry.

9 Bridgestone Partners with GfK Throughout my career in consumer packaged goods, point-of-sale data and national trends information were essential drivers of our decision making for product development, marketing and promotion, said TJ Higgins, President, Integrated Consumer Tire Group, Bridgestone Americas Tire Operations. We see the GfK point-of-sale panel and database as game changers for the tire industry. We are excited to work with GfK on this project, as they have a track record of building the highest quality panels and making marketplaces more efficient. 9

10 GfK Continues Building a World Class Retail Panel 2,200 Firestone Complete Auto Care Shops 1,150 Independent Shops 10

Construction: Radial Tire Type: Passenger Wheel Diameter: 17

11 US Passenger Tires Attributes Collected Include Brand: Cooper Model Name: Zeon RS3-S Tire Width: 205 Aspect Ratio: 50 Construction: Radial Tire Type: Passenger Wheel Diameter: 17 Speed Index: W Dimension: 205/50/17 Load Index: 93 Seasonality: All Season 11

12 We re measuring the largest segment of the consumer replacement tire market. We have more than 30,000 unique items in our database. 12

13 Setting the benchmarks Start by defining the market size 2016 Units Sold: 147.5MM (-1.1% vs. YA) 2016 Dollars Sold: $20.3B (+1.1%vs. YA) 2016 Average Price: $135/Tire Passenger car tires 81.5MM (-3.0% vs. YA) Passenger car tires $9.5B (-0.3% vs. YA) Passenger car tires $113/Tire (+2.8% vs. YA) LT / 4X4 Tires 66.0MM (+1.4% vs. YA) LT / 4X4 Tires $10.8B (+2.3% vs. YA) LT / 4X4 Tires $163/Tire (+0.9% vs. YA) 13

14 Then, we look at how the information breaks down by segment Average Selling Price, by month, since January 2015 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 Total US Market Passenger Car Light Truck/4x4 14

15 Of the 41.7MM units sold in Q4 2015, 1.8MM were Winter tires. That s 5% higher than the previous year Units Sold, by quarter, since Q Millions Market insights Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total US Market PASSENGER CAR LT + 4X4 15

16 Once the snow begins to fly, winter tires become very popular, with an above average selling price. Average Selling Price and Units Sold, by month, since January 2015 $ ,000 $ ,000 $ ,000 $ ,000 $ ,000 $80 300,000 $60 200,000 $40 100,000 $20 $0 - Units Sold Total US Market Average Price 16

17 Seasonality is less impactful for Run Flats, while units and prices remain relatively stable over the year. Average Selling Price and Units Sold, by month, since January 2015 $ ,000 $ ,000 $ ,000 $ ,000 $50 50,000 $0 - Run Flat Units Sold Market Avg. Price Run Flat Average Price 17

18 Top selling sizes 225/65/17 3.8MM Units (+25.9%) 195/65/15 3.9MM Units (-3.5%) 215/60/16 5.2MM Units (-3.7%) 205/55/16 5.8MM Units (-8.1%) 265/70/17 6.8MM Units (-8.5%) 18

19 Top selling products Top 10 selling products at 265/70/17: 265/70/17 6.8MM Units (-8.5%) 1) FIRESTONE DESTINATION LE2 113 T 2) HANKOOK DYNAPRO AT-M RF T 3) MICHELIN LTX M/S2 113 T 4) BFG ALL TERRAIN T/A KO2 121 S 5) MICHELIN DEFENDER LTX M/S 115 T 6) BRIDGESTONE DUELER A/T REVO S SEAS 7) MICHELIN DEFENDER LTX M/S 121 R 8) YOKOHAMA GEOLANDAR A/T S 121 R 9) COOPER DISCOVERER A/T3 121 S 10) COOPER DISCOVERER A/T3 115 T 19

Benefits C U R R E N T S IT U A TI O N This industry is data starved when it comes to sell out data It only knows what is shipped (not sold) thus produce and push is the mantra Data is not available

20 Benefits C U R R E N T S IT U A TI O N This industry is data starved when it comes to sell out data It only knows what is shipped (not sold) thus produce and push is the mantra Data is not available by brand thus competitor shares are a mystery No trends, insights or pricing Large inventories and simultaneous backorders Quicker demand signal Easier to forecast Quicker reaction to trigger production (right tires/right quantities) For the first time PRICING on a near real-time basis Competitor analysis Raise price (demand) Promote excess Competitive Analysis Brand shifts Up and coming Brands 20

21 Dealers are getting smarter too Participating tire dealers receive their data coded with GfK s code plan (analysis is their business) Total chain Benchmarking Store comparisons Brand analysis Price analysis/ comparison to market Inventory management Account Manager for ongoing support 21

22 Conclusions Making the Tire Industry Smarter Unbiased Reporting Share by Brand Average Selling Price by SKU Reduction of Back Order and Inventory Making Dealers Smarter One Data Set for All 22

23 THANK YOU! 23

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