The Economics of E-commerce and Technology. Industry Analysis
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1 The Economics of E-commerce and Technology Industry Analysis 1 10/2/2012
2 Industry Profits In Econ 11, Economic Profits = 0 In reality, many industries have much higher profits: 2 10/2/2012
3 Industry Analysis Identify factors determining industry profitability. Provides context for strategic analysis. Analysis depends on market definition. Porter s five forces Substitutes Competitor Rivalry New entrants Buyer bargaining power Supplier bargaining power Complements 3 10/2/2012
4 Force 1: Substitutes A firm s markup is determined by it s demand elasticity p c 1 p dq where e p e q dp Which elasticity? Demand for smart phones is inelastic Demand for Samsung s Galaxy G3 is elastic What about strategic interaction? If I change my price, this may effect behavior of others Substitutes outside the market Ignore strategic interactions Substitutes inside the market Pay attention to strategic interaction 4 10/2/2012
5 Force 1: Substitutes Consider two products: What is a substitute? 1. Price of x goes up, then demand for y goes up. 2. If x and y indivisible goods, V xy <V x +V y Degree of substitutability matters Affects how our firm interacts with competitors. Depends on type of product differentiation. 5 10/2/2012
6 Force 2: Competitor Rivalry Bertrand benchmark Assumptions Two firms simultaneously set prices Constant marginal cost, c Firm with lowest price serves whole market Example: gas stations next to each other. What is elasticity of demand? What is equilibrium price? 6 10/2/2012
7 Force 2: Rivalry Dominant firm (e.g. ebay) Biggest danger comes from new entrants. Oligopoly (e.g. Dating sites match, eharmony, jdate) Competition and cooperation issues become interesting! Fragmented (e.g. blogs) Little strategy for fragmented industry. 7 10/2/2012
8 Force 2: Competitor Rivalry What determines how intense competition is? Product differentiation Real differences in products Switching costs Search costs Cost structure Supply side returns to scale Capacity constraints Network effects (demand side returns to scale) Collusion Explicit or tacit 8 10/2/2012
9 Force 3: New Entrants Incumbents often blind-sided by new products. IBM and Microsoft/Intel Microsoft and the internet. Are fixed costs an entry barrier? Intuition: High fixed costs reduce entry, lower elasticity of demand and increase profits. Flaw in argument? Profits are positive after paid fixed cost. But what about ex-ante? There needs to be incumbency advantage. 9 10/2/2012
10 Force 3: Entry Barriers Demand side Switching costs (e.g. TurboTax) Demand-side returns to scale (network effects, e.g. MS Word) Reputation (e.g. Apple) Supply side Proprietary technology (e.g. patents) Access to raw materials (e.g. Google and engineers) Learning curve (e.g. NY Times) Equilibrium The threat of post-entry price war. (e.g. CD Phone Books) Strategy Should you preemptively block or fight entry? 10 10/2/2012
11 First Mover Advantage via Competition Suppose firm A is in industry. Has marginal cost customers with value 10. A is currently charging p=10 and making π=100(10-5)=500. Firm B is considering entering Has marginal cost 4 and fixed cost 150. Good is homogenous. Should firm B enter? If it enters, Bertrand competition implies price falls to p=5. B s profits are π=100(5-4)-150 = -50. B should not enter, anticipating the cut-throat competition /2/2012
12 Force 4/5: Buyer/Supplier Bargaining Power How big is the pie? Potential pie = value of relationship. Ex-post costs of negotiation: market power (e.g. double marginalization), delay (e.g. strikes), bargaining costs (e.g. lawyers) Ex-ante costs of negotiation: underinvestment in relationship, cultivation of outside options. Called holdup problem. How is the pie split? Long side vs. short side of market Concentration on each side of the market Power to commit to one stance Information 12 10/2/2012
13 Example: Double Marginalisation Example (the cable business) HBO sells input to TW; TW sells output to customers. Market demand is q=100-p. Both firms have zero costs. Maximal Industry Profits Charge p=50, sell quantity q=50. Profits = 50*50 = What if HBO charges transfer price t? Then TW maximizes TW =(p-t)(100-p) Chooses p=50+t/2 and sells q=50-t/2, treating t as input cost. What input price does HBO choose? HBO maximizes TW =t(50-t/2), implying t=50, q=25 and p=75. Firms charge more than monopoly price! Intuitively, each firm exert negative externality on the other. 13 Can raise profits by merging or using two-part-tariff 10/2/2012
14 Example: Nintendo Nintendo invented NES in 1983 Cheap hardware: 8-bit processor dated to 1970s. Limited power of software firm Limited to 5 titles a year. Exclusivity condition: games only for Nintendo. Limited power of buyers In 1988 retailers requested 110m units. Supplied 33m units. Idea: Classic monopoly! Nintendo gets large slice of pie Danger: strategies reduce pie and invite entry 14 10/2/2012
15 Force 6: Complementors What is a complement? 1. Price of x goes up, then demand for y goes down. 2. If x and y indivisible goods, V xy >V x +V y Complementors make the pie bigger. Xbox and games When launched in 2001, not many games for Xbox It bought Bunjie and used Halo as launch title. Provide tools to encourage third party developers. Relation to platform market Xbox is platform where users interact with software. Not all platforms are for complementors: Google searchers may dislike ads /2/2012
16 Market Definition How define the market for Dell Desktop? Other desktops? Laptops? Netbooks? ipads? It depends what question you are asking! You should think about Epson Demand interactions: elasticity of substitution Strategic interactions: whether firm A reacts to firm B s decisions. Epson dominated low-end dot-matrix printers. HP dominated the Inkjet and high-end laser printer market. Epson in wrong market, so launched cheap laser printer in Price war: Laser prices fell, Inkjet prices fell, and dot-matrix market..? Lesson: There s always a bigger market /2/2012
17 There s always a bigger market 17 10/2/2012
18 Example: Amazon s Book Business Substitutes: Inside market: other booksellers (online, offline), ebooks Outside market: libraries, magazines, TV etc. Buyers: Individuals. Buyer bargaining power: Little. Suppliers: Rivals: Publishers, USPS. Supplier bargaining power: Varying. Online/offline sellers. Small sellers, bookstores, superstores. Industry structure: Oligopoly with fragmented fringe. Entrants: Specialty sellers, other offline stores, Yahoo. Compliments: Broadband, reviews, credit cards /2/2012
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