Mining five years of iron ore data

Transcription

1 New for 2014 Mining five years of iron ore data Correlations and leading indicators for future trends and prices l Analysis of unique and exclusive Metal Bulletin data never published before l Aggregated analysis of iron ore international prices l Numerically and trade orientated l New and comprehensive report

2 l Discover unknown patterns and trends in iron ore prices l Learn what economic and social network variables correlated to iron ore prices l Find out how chemistries and origins affect prices and volatility l Discover what news affect iron ore prices and how Mining five years of iron ore data As the spot market has become more important, both the need for reliable up-to-date information and market understanding has increased. The new Mining five years of iron ore data report is an essential instrument for understanding and predicting iron ore international prices. Why is this Metal Bulletin Iron Ore Index report important? The Mining five years of iron ore data report is the most in-depth report available in the market covering international iron ore prices. The report takes advantage of the large amount of data on iron ore prices that Metal Bulletin Iron Ore Index (MBIOI) has been collecting over the last five years. The aim of this product is to improve the knowledge and information available on the iron ore market through a deep technical and statistical analysis of the historical data and its relation to other relevant variables as never done before. Over the last ten years the iron ore market has changed. This evolution has been driven by many factors; arguably the most important being increasing Chinese demand for iron ore, and growing global production and trading. These new factors underpinned volatility and uncertainty in the global iron ore market. One of the main consequences of this uncertainty was that it made the once dominant long-term iron ore benchmark price contracts obsolete. As a result, there was a clear need for an independent and transparent representation of iron ore prices. Metal Bulletin Iron Ore Index was launched in 2008 to provide a complete package of key information and transparent daily prices for the iron ore spot market. The new Mining five years of iron ore data report provides a further tool for the market. The report includes analysis of the data by material properties including iron content and a look at grade evolution. There is an in-depth analysis showing the relationship between material properties and price, Value-In-Use, and a look at market concentration and volatility analysis. In addition, the report provides forecasting tools, time-pattern analysis, news effects on iron ore prices and a review of independent analysis forecasts.

3 This study will provide insight into the following key areas: l Historical evolution of MBIOI. Statistical analysis of trends, changes and distributions; including correlations with global stock markets. l Data analysis by origin, chemistry, type of transaction. Analysis of the data by material properties including iron content and a look at grade evolution. l Study of the Index s volatility. General volatility, volatility by iron ore grade and by origin. l Analysis of effect by type of data inputs, freight rates and material specifications on iron ore prices. Regression analysis of specifications and iron ore price. l Market concentration analysis. Supply and demand concentration in the spot market. Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) calculations. Analysis of concentration by origin and HHI evolution since l Leading indicators. Statistical comparison of a new generation of indicators to MBIOI. l Study of the relation between iron ore prices and macroeconomic variables. l Time patterns. Analysis of the effects of Chinese and Western National Holidays on the iron ore price. Analysis of weekdays patterns. l Sensitivity analysis of MBIOI to iron ore news. l Analysis of MBIOI impartiality and robustness. Test of MBIOI data fairness from a statistical point of view. Figure 1. Evolution of iron content distribution 66s-67s 64s-65s 62s-63s 77% 49% % 26% 17% 17% 60s-61s % 39% 3 26% % 58s-59s 5% 9% 17% 1 27% 56s-57s 6% 26% 1 7% 1 9% 19% 54s-55s 5% 7% 52s-53s 7% 50s-51s 5% 49s-50s 2009 q q q q q q q q q q q q q3 Source: Metal Bulletin Iron Ore Index

4 I would recommend Metal Bulletin as a unique provider of steel and its raw materials market analysis. Michael Amez, Manager, A.T.Kearney, USA This report is required reading for all industry professionals that have an interest in the present and future of the iron ore sector: l Iron ore miners l Iron ore traders l Steel producers l Investors l Policy makers l Analysts l International organisations l Governments Figure 2. Day of the month pattern 2.5% % 1. % daily change 0.5% % % -2. Source: Metal Bulletin Iron Ore Index Day of the month 8 of observations range 6 of observations range Average % of daily change To order please call the hotline +44 (0) or enquiries@mbioi.com

5 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DESCRIPTION 1. METAL BULLETIN 2. METAL BULLETIN IRON ORE INDEX (MBIOI) 3. INTRINSIC INDEX FACTS 3.1. DISTRIBUTION AND EVOLUTION 3.2. INDEX IMPARTIALITY OUTPUT SIDE 3.3. OTHER IRON ORE INDICES 5. VOLATILITY 6. MACROECONOMIC AND STEEL SECTOR VARIABLES 7. TIME EFFECTS 7.1. WEEKDAYS EFFECT 7.2. TURN OF THE MONTH EFFECTS 7.3. TURN OF THE QUARTER EFFECTS 7.4. HOLIDAY EFFECT 8. NEWS SENSITIVITY 9. LEADING INDICATORS 4. ANALYSIS OF THE IRON ORE CHARACTERISTICS 4.1. FERRO CONTENT 4.2. ORIGIN OF IRON ORE 4.3. TYPE OF INPUT 4.4. SILICA, ALUMINA AND IRON CONTENT RELATIONSHIPS 4.5. MARKET CONCENTRATION 4.6. INDEX IMPARTIALITY INPUT SIDE 4.7. CHARACTERISTICS AND PRICE RELATIONSHIPS Type of input and price Number of deals and Index change Freight rate and Index sensitivity Value-In-Use Take a trial to the Iron Ore Index subscription service and you ll receive: l Market-leading pricing methodology and coverage l 7 spot iron ore prices l Freight rates for major iron ore routes l Unique insights into the iron ore spot market l Independent and expert market commentary l All prices directly to your inbox everyday l Access to the historical price and news archive Sign up for a trial today! Please call the hotline +44 (0) or enquiries@mbioi.com to request complimentary sample pages

6 Yes I would like to order: Mining five years of iron ore data 30 minute Q&A session with the author of the study: Purchase this study and you will receive a complimentary 30 minute telephone meeting with the author of this study at a suitable time and date for both parties. This Q&A session will present you with a unique PLUS opportunity to hold an informative discussion on any aspects raised in this study. Please select: ROW $14,750 ROW $9,588 UK 8,995 UK 5,847 Europe 10,490 Europe 6,819 ORDER NOW AND GET A 35% DISCOUNT! CALL +44 (0) Mr/Miss/Mrs/Ms/Dr Family Name First/Given Name Company Name Job Title Address Post/Zip Code Country Tel +( ) Fax +( ) YOUR COMPANY TYPE Raw Material Supply (0003) Metal/Steel Production/ Processing (0027) Fabrication/Manufacturing (0055) Distribution (0095) Services/Products for the Industry (0111) End-User Sector (0167) Finance Companies (0271) Production (0275) Processing & Equipment (0279) Trading (0287) DATA PROTECTION NOTICE Transport Ports (0291) Non-Ferrous Foundry (0303) Extruding (0311) Other Primary Metal Products (0315) Ferrous Traders (0319) Non-Ferrous Traders (0323) Resource/Asset Recovery (0327) Library/Research (0321) Trade Association (0525) Legal/Regulations (0155) Government (0253) Use of your information The information you provide on this form will be used by Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC and its group companies ( we or us ) to process your order and/or deliver relevant products/services and content. We may also monitor your use of our website(s), including information you post and actions you take, to improve our services to you and track compliance with our terms of use. Except to the extent you indicate your objection below, we may also use your data (including data obtained from monitoring) (a) to keep you informed of our products and services; (b) occasionally to allow companies outside our group to contact you with details of their products/services; or (c) for our journalists to contact you for research purposes. As an international group, we may transfer your data on a global basis for the purposes indicated above, including to countries which may not provide the same level of protection to personal data as within the European Union. By submitting your details, you will be indicating your consent to the use of your data as identified above. Further information on our use of your personal data is set out in our privacy policy, which is available at or can be provided to you separately upon request. Marketing choices If you object to contact as identified above by telephone q, fax q, or q, or post q, please tick the relevant box. If you do not want us to share your information with our journalists q, or other companies q please tick the relevant box. Other relevant products include: Metal Bulletin Iron Ore Index Steel Raw Materials: Weekly Market Tracker A Ten Year Strategic Outlook for the Global Iron Ore Industry Global Iron Ore Cost Service Steel: Weekly Market Tracker Global Steel Cost Service Steel First PROMO CODE Study published October 2013 I wish to pay by the following method (please tick appropriate box): CREDIT CARD I wish to pay by credit card. Please call the Metal Bulletin Iron Ore Index hotline on +44 (0) For your own safety please do not fax or credit card details. INVOICE Please invoice me for US$/ / I understand my report will not be sent until the invoice has been paid. CHEQUE I enclose a cheque for US$/ / made payable to Metal Bulletin. BANK TRANSFER A bank transfer has been made payable to Metal Bulletin for US$/ / Please provide a copy of the transfer document with your order quoting code MIOR001 US$: A/C No Sort Code: SWIFT CODE: LOYDGB2LCTY IBAN number: GB80LOYD : A/C No Sort Code SWIFT CODE: LOYDGB2LCTY IBAN number: GB86LOYD : A/C No Sort Code: SWIFT CODE: LOYDGB2LCTY IBAN number: GB80LOYD Lloyds TSB Bank plc, City Office, PO Box 72, Bailey Drive, Gillingham Business Park, Gillingham, Kent, ME8 0LS, UK FIVE EASY WAYS TO ORDER Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) enquiries@mbioi.com Online: Mail: Metal Bulletin Research Special Reports, TDS, Pegasus Drive, Stratton Business Park, Biggleswade, Bedfordshire SG18 8TQ, UK If you have any questions you can also contact your regional office Customers in Asia please contact: Tel: marketing@metalbulletinresearch.com Customers in North America please contact: Tel: +1 (212) Fax: +1 (412) For more information please visit or call +44 (0) or enquiries@mbioi.com