Update on Ratings After Fitch review and S&P s Rating Actions

Transcription

1 Update on Ratings After Fitch review and S&P s Rating Actions INVESTOR RELATIONS & FINANCIAL INFORMATION 14 October 2011

2 Specific Highlights on S&P s Report BNP Paribas is downgraded to AA- with a stable outlook S&P still high rating [ ] reflects S&P s opinion of BNP Paribas: [ ] Comparatively stronger business profile that incorporates greater and more successful business diversification than peers. [ ] Its better earnings generation, resulting from resilient underlying revenue streams in most business lines And the absence of significant pockets of risks as well as its more moderate risk appetite and stronger risk culture. 2

3 Rating s Benchmark Rating Actions Appendix 3

4 Ratings by S&P as of 14 October 2011 AAA Rabobank (negative) AA HSBC Bank plc (stable) Wells Fargo Bank N.A. (negative) AA- A+ A BNP Paribas (stable) Barclays Bank plc (negative) JPMorgan Chase Bank (stable) Banco Santander (negative) BBVA (negative) Crédit Suisse (stable) Deutsche Bank (stable) Crédit Agricole (stable) UBS (under review) Société Générale (stable) Bank of America N.A. (negative) RBS Plc (stable) Citibank N.A. (negative) ING Bank (stable) Commerzbank (negative) Standard Chartered (stable) Unicredito (negative) Intesa San Paolo (negative) Data Source: Bloomberg; Bank rating actions over the last two months 4

5 Ratings by Moody s as of 14 October 2011 Aaa Aa1 Rabobank (negative) JPMorgan Chase Bank (negative) Crédit Suisse (negative) Aa2 BNP Paribas (under review) BBVA (under review) Crédit Agricole (under review) Banco Santander (under review) HSBC Bank plc (negative) Aa3 A1 Deutsche Bank (stable) Wells Fargo Bank N.A. (negative) UBS (under review) Barclays Bank plc (negative) Société Générale (negative) ING Bank (stable) Citibank N.A. (negative) Lloyds TSB Bank plc (negative) Data Source: Bloomberg; Bank rating actions over the last two months 5

6 Ratings by Fitch as of 14 October 2011 AA+ AA AA- A+ A Rabobank (rating watch) HSBC Bank Plc (stable) JPMorgan Chase Bank (stable) Crédit Agricole (rating watch) Wells Fargo Bank N.A. (stable) Crédit Suisse (rating watch) Standard Chartered (stable) Barclays Bank plc (rating watch) BNP Paribas (rating watch) Deutsche Bank (rating watch) Banco Santander (negative) Société Générale (stable) BPCE (stable) Citibank N.A. (rating watch) Bank of America N.A. (rating watch) Natixis (stable) BBVA (negative) KBC Bank (stable) Lloyds TSB Bank plc (stable) ING Bank (stable) Intesa San Paolo (negative) UBS (stable) Unicredit (negative) RBS plc (stable) Data Source: Bloomberg; Bank rating actions over the last two months 6

7 Rating s Benchmark Rating Actions Appendix 7

8 France Rating actions on Sovereign AAA (stable outlook): no rating action On October 10, S&P affirmed the 'AAA'-rating of France was justified. Moritz Kraëmer, head of S&P UE Sovereign ratings, reminded that any downgrade would be preceded by a negative outlook which is not the case for France. For Moritz Kräemer, France 's main challenge is its public finances but, in his viewpoint, France has taken measures to control public spending, reduce its deficit and judged particularly 'solid' the pension reform voted last year. Rating actions on Banks : S&P revised its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment of French s banking system Downgrades BNP Paribas to AA- with Stable outllook from AA (negative outlook) : Fitch is conducting a global review including 7 trading and universal banks and 5 commercial banks and either downgrades or places certain of them on Rating Watch Negative Major French banks including BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Société Générale s valiability rating are placed on Rating Watch Negative : Moody s rating action further to the review initiated on Moody s maintains review for downgrade on BNP Paribas Aa2 long-term ratings Downgrades CASA s long-term ratings to Aa2 (from Aa1) Downgrades SocGen s long-term ratings to Aa3 (from Aa2) 8

9 Italy Rating actions on Sovereign : Fitch downgrades Italy to A+ ; outlook negative (from AA-) Rating actions on Banks : Fitch downgrades major Italian banks following sovereign downgrade: The rating actions on Italian banks [ ] also reflects the increasing pressure on banks Europe-wide. ISP Spa: A (negative outlook) from AA- (negative outlook); Unicredit Spa: A (Rating Watch Negative) from A (stable outlook) : Moody s downgrades Italy s government bond ratings to A2 with a negative outlook : Moody s downgrades Italian banks following Italy s downgrade: ISP Spa: A2 (negative outlook) from Aa3 (under review); Unicredit Spa: A2 (negative outlook) from Aa3 (under review) : S&P lowers its unsolicited long and short-term credit rating to A/A-1 (negative outlook) from A+/A-1+ : : S&P downgrades Italian banks after sovereign downgrade ISP Spa: A (negative outlook) from A+ (negative outlook); Unicredit Spa: A (negative outlook) from A (stable outlook). BNL Spa: A+ (negative outlook) from AA- (negative outlook) 9

10 Spain Rating actions on Sovereign Rating actions on Banks : S&P lowers the long-term rating of Spain from AA to AA- ; the outlook is negative Uncertain growth prospects and continuing deterioration in financial system asset quality : S&P downgrades 15 Spanish banks following its revision of the Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment of Spain s banking system (Spain s slowing economy and depressed real estate market) Santander: AA- (negative) from AA (negative) BBVA: AA- (negative) from AA (negative) : Fitch downgrades Spain to AA- (outlook negative) from AA+ (outlook negative) : Fitch downgrades major Spanish banks following sovereign downgrades Santander: AA- (negative) from AA (negative) BBVA: A+ (negative) from AA- (negative) 10

11 UK Rating actions on Sovereign Rating actions on Banks AAA (stable outlook): no rating action : Fitch lowers UK Support Rating Floors (SFR) The lower SFR indicates that the potential for the provision of extraordinary support for senior bank creditors is relatively less certain than before. RBS plc: A (stable outlook) from AA- (stable outlook); Lloyds TSB Bank plc: A (stable outlook) from AA- (stable outlook); Barclays rating (AA-) is placed on Rating Watch Negative : Moody s downgrades 12 UK financial institutions, concluding its review of systemic support assumptions from the UK government: Announcements made, as well as actions already taken by UK authorities have significantly reduced the predictability of support over the medium to long-term if needed ; RBS plc: A2 (negative outlook) from Aa3 (under review); Lloyds TSB Bank plc: A1 (negative outlook) from Aa3 (under review). 11

12 US Rating actions on Sovereign Rating actions on Banks : S&P downgrades US to AA+ (negative outlook) from AAA (negative outlook) reflecting: S&P s opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what [ ] would be necessary to stabilize the government s medium-term debt dynamics ; S&P s view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than previously envisioned : Fitch is conducting a global review including 7 trading and universal banks Places Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Rating Watch Negative : Moody s confirms US Aaa Rating, assigns negative outlook indicating that there would be a risk of downgrade if: There is a weakening in fiscal discipline in the coming year; Further fiscal consolidation measures are not adopted in 2013; The economic outlook deteriorates significantly; There is an appreciable rise in the US government s funding costs over and above what is currently expected : Moody s downgrades 3 US banks, saying the US government is getting less comfortable with bailing out large troubles lenders. Bank of America NA: A2 (negative outlook) from Aa3 (under review) Citibank NA: A1 (negative outlook) from A1 (under review) Wells Fargo Bank NA: Aa3 (negative outlook) from Aa2 (under review) 12

13 Rating s Benchmark Rating Actions Appendix 13

14 Sovereigns Ratings As of 14 October 2011 Standard & Poor s Moody s Fitch Ratings French Republic Aaa (stable) Italy A (negative) A2 (negative) A+ (negative) Belgium Germany Spain The Netherlands Switzerland United Kingdom United States AA+ (negative) AA- (negative) Aa1 (under review) Aaa (stable) Aa2 (under review) Aaa (stable) Aaa (stable) AA+ (negative) AA- (negative) Aaa (stable) AA+ (negative) Aaa (negative) Data Source: Bloomberg; Sovereign rating actions over the last two months 14