Clean Energy Investment and Switzerland s Competitive Position
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1 Clean Energy Investment and Switzerland s Competitive Position Michael Liebreich Chairman & CEO Zurich 5 th June 2009 new energy finance,
2 Global new investment in clean energy, Preliminary 58% Growth 59% Growth $148bn 5% Growth $155bn 26-38% drop $115bn 5x increase from low level 2004 to % Growth $93bn $95bn Stalled in H $60bn $35bn Expected drop of 26 38% in Note: Adjusts for reinvested equity. Total value includes estimates for undisclosed deals. 1 Source: New Energy Finance [v9.02]
3 NEX Clean Energy Index: NEX AMEX Oil NASDAQ S&P 500 Exposure to energy prices Early stage Capital Hungry Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Note: Values as of 01 Jun 2009; AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan Source: New Energy Finance, Bloomberg 2
4 Global new financial investment in clean energy ($bn) '04 Q2 '04 Q3 '04 Q4 '04 '05 Q2 '05 Q3 '05 Q4 '05 '06 Q2 '06 Q3 '06 Q4 '06 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 '09 Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. 3 rd party investment only (i.e. does not include corporate and government R&D, or small residential scale projects). Does not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Source: New Energy Finance [v9.04]
5 Wind: top project finance lenders, EU-27, 2007 & 2008 ( m and %) Royal Bank of Scotland 1,977 European Investment Bank (EIB) Nord LB Grupo BBVA % to -6% Merged/ Acquired Nordic Investment Bank (NIB) 592 HSH Nordbank BNP Paribas Fortis Bank SA/NV UniCredit % to -12% Reversion to local markets ING Bank 383 Banco Espirito Santo Grupo Santander Banesto Caja Madrid % to -30% Shift to short tenor lending Millennium BCP 305 Sabadell Bank Group Credit Agricole SA La Caixa de Barcelona (La Caixa) Banque Federale des BP % to +10% Increase in RE lending Groupe Caisse d Epargne Gruppo Banca Intesa Commerzbank Group % to - 40% Net impact Note: Project finance lending converted to EUR at constant rate of EUR to USD Source: New Energy Finance 4 [v9.02]
6 Budgeted global oil and gas E&P spending ($bn) Source: IEA 5
7 Attitude to the environment and economy Old School It s exciting when you have a real crisis on your hands, when you have spent half your political life dealing with humdrum issues like the environment Margaret Thatcher,
8 Attitude to the environment and economy New School Finding the new driver of our economy is going to be critical. There is no better potential driver that pervades all aspects of our economy than a new energy economy Barack Obama,
9 Stimulus components targeted at clean energy, ($bn) By country By type China US 12% % 66.6 Efficiency 65.7 EU-27 Japan 1% 2% 2% 1% Grid 48.6 South Korea Spain 20% 9% All Renewables 35.3 Germany Australia 4% n/d R&D 22.1 UK 3% 2.7 Unspecified 8.4 France Brazil 7% 6% Transportation 4.8 Canada Total 3% Total Note: Estimates based on disclosed information, as of 18 May Percentages indicate percentage of total stimulus which is dedicated to clean energy. N/d indicates that the total stimulus sum was not disclosed. Source: New Energy Finance, government agencies [v9.02]
10 Estimated global clean energy stimulus spending rate ($bn) Source: New Energy Finance [v9.02]
11 Institutional investors clean energy investment intentions Expected allocation to clean energy investments by 2012 Expected change to clean energy allocations by 2012 More No change Less More 75% Projects 57% 41% Public Equity 54% 40% Carbon 50% 44% Unchanged 22% Private Equity 48% 48% Less 3% Based on106 Institutions with $1tr AUM Timber and forestry Venture Capital Agricultural commodities 42% 36% 32% 55% 54% 65% Source: New Energy Finance 10 [v9.01]
12 Clean energy an industry in transition Supply-chain constrained Turbine & silicon shortage Biofuels boom - bust & hysteria Analogue grid hinders progress Proliferation of start-ups Innovation driven by new players From To Finance constrained Turbine & silicon over-supply Biofuels reboot: sugar/2 nd gen Smart Grid & grid extension Wave of consolidation Utilities & industrials with strong balance sheets lead Source: New Energy Finance 11
13 Wind: turbine delivery times and inventories Turbine delivery lead times Jan 2003 Dec 2008: months Inventories of major manufacturers : EURbn Vestas Gamesa Nordex REpower 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Lead times Moving average (30pt) Source: New Energy Finance [v9.02]
14 Solar: PV module supply / demand, 2009 to 2011 (GW) Supply - Announced Supply - On hold Supply - Mothballing Demand - Optimistic Demand - Conservative Note: Supply based on discounted announcement supply model from NEF Desktop data, using different assumptions by scenario. Demand based on a scrutinised build-up of all major markets. Updated 25 February Source: New Energy Finance, IEA, government agencies [v9.02]
15 The crystalline silicon module experience curve: $/W $/W % Experience Curve for retail prices Historical retail price data - Solarbuzz Overshoot - retail 3 Sustained high growth -profit 2 Soft landing - retail 1 Chinese factory prices -gate 0 Dec -02 Apr -04 Sep -05 Jan -07 Jun -08 Oct -09 Feb -11 Note: Retail prices are paid by the consumer, factory-gate by distributor. Updated as of February Construction of experience curve based on Maycock data for factory-gate prices to 1975, parameters fitted to monthly retail price curve of Solarbuzz data from December Source: Solarbuzz, Maycock, SEC filings, New Energy Finance
16 From: Centralized grid, analogue control DATA METER GENERATORS TRANSMISSION SUBSTATION DISTRIBUTION USERS Source: New Energy Finance Consortium on Digital Energy
17 To: Distributed generation, smart grid, pervasive data Data on useage, CO2, $$$, weather, etc SMART NEIGHBORHOOD SMART METER BASELOAD, SMOOTHING BACKUP SMART TRANSMISSION SMART DISTRIBUTION SUBSTATION SMART HOME Source: New Energy Finance Consortium on Digital Energy
18 Clean energy VC investment by region ($bn) Total VC-type funds at end 2007 > 1,200 $1.2bn $1.2bn $1.0bn $0.2bn $0.4bn $0.3bn $0.3bn $0.3bn $0.4bn $0.4bn $0.3bn $0.8bn $0.7bn $0.7bn $0.6bn $0.5bn $0.5bn $1.0bn $1.0bn $0.9bn $0.4bn '04 Q2 '04 Q3 '04 Q4 '04 '05 Q2 '05 Q3 '05 Q4 '05 '06 Q2 '06 Q3 '06 Q4 '06 '07 Q2 '07 AMER EMEA ASOC Q3 '07 Q4 '07 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 '09 Grossed up values based on disclosed deals. Includes only venture capital investment. Source: New Energy Finance
19 Clean energy venture capital providers (left) and venturebacked companies (right) per million population Luxembourg Israel Norway Switzerland Finland Sweden UK Canada USA Ireland Denmark Netherlands Belgium Germany Austria France Spain Japan Italy Greece China India Israel Finland Norway Denmark Canada Sweden Ireland UK Luxembourg Switzerland USA Netherlands Belgium Austria Germany Spain France Greece Italy Japan China India Source: New Energy Finance Industry Intelligence Desktop 18
20 THANKS! Michael Liebreich Chairman and CEO News & newsletters (Briefing) Deal and industry data (Industry Intelligence) Research & analysis (Insight) Carbon price forecasting Carbon project analytics Consulting & advisory Executive workshops New Energy Finance Summit & Awards Renewable Energy Biofuels Carbon Emission Markets Energy Efficiency, Storage & Smart Grid Carbon Capture & Sequestration Nuclear, Water new energy finance,
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