COP 21 Paris journalist seminar 23-24 June 2015
EU's leadership in the international climate negotiations and developments of domestic policies Artur Runge-Metzger Director, International & Strategy Directorate-General for European Commission 23 June 2015
KP BY 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mt CO2 equivalent EU leading by example (1): 2008 2020 / 2030 framework / 2050 roadmap 5.800 5.600 5.400 CP1 C.sinks CP1 Kyoto Mechanisms 5.200 5.000 Overachievement CP1: 4.3 GtCO 2 eq 4.800 100% 100% 4.600 Potential Overachievement CP2: 4.400 4.200 Total : 1.5 GtCO 2 eq 5.8 GtCO 2 eq 80% Power Sector Current policy 80% 4.000 60% Residential & Tertiary 60% EU-28 +IS historic emissions EU-28 projections With Existing Measures estimated overachievement compared to target 2013-20 Target for the 1st commitment period (2008 2012) Target for the 2nd commitment period (2013 2020) 40% Industry 40% Transport 20% 20% Non CO 2 Agriculture 0% Non CO 2 Other Sectors 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EU leading by example (2): Growing the economy, reducing energy dependence, reducing emissions Source: EC Impact assessment, A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 up to 2030 (SWD/2014/015 final)
EU leading by example (3): Spearheading low-carbon innovation Between 1995 and 2010 the average consumption of new cars in the EU decreased by 27% New dwellings built today consume on average 40% less than dwellings built 20 years ago The share of refrigerators meeting the highest energy efficiency labelling classes (A and above) increased from less than 5% in 1995 to more than 90% 15 years later EU industry improved its energy intensity by almost 19% between 2001 and 2011, compared with 9% in the US
EU cannot do it alone (1): Origin of global CO 2 emissions
EU cannot do it alone (2): Global trends since 1990 7
EU cannot do it alone (3): Opportunities for global emission reductions Global mitigation scenario in line with staying below 2 C, compatible with robust economic growth Source: EC-JRC POLES model, GECO2015
EU cannot do it alone (4): Broadening global climate action well beyond Kyoto Global agreement on staying below 2 Celsius (Copenhagen/Cancun) Around 100 countries responsible for > 80% of global GHG emissions made concrete emission pledges (Copenhagen/Cancun), including all major economies, until 2020 Growing global action, but fragmented and diverse Growing action outside the UNFCCC, e.g. cities, business, plurilateral cooperative initiatives Durban mandate applicable to all 9
EU cannot do it alone (5): Efficient cars are spreading
EU cannot do it alone (6): Staying below 2 C requires ambitious global action 2020 30 Warming projected by 2100 Baselines 4.1-4.8 C Current policy projections 3.6 4.2 C With EU, US, CN pledges 2.9 3.1 C Below 2 C: 1.5 1.7 C Below 1.5 C: 1.3 1.5 C Source: Tracker, December 2014
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2030 presentation and process of international contributions (INDC) and questions of adequacy of global efforts Tom van Ierland Deputy Head of Unit, Strategy and Economic Assessment Directorate-General for European Commission 23 June 2015
INDC of the EU and its Member States Parties Type EU and its Member States acting jointly Absolute reductions from base year emissions. Coverage Economy wide absolute reduction from base year emissions. Scope All GHG not controlled by the Montreal Protocol: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3. Base year 1990 Period 1 January 2021 31 December 2030. 14
INDC of the EU and its Member States Parties EU and its Member States acting jointly Reduction level At least 40% domestic emission reduction in GHG emissions by 2030. % emissions covered Agriculture forestry and other land uses Net contribution of international market-based mechanisms 100% Policy on how to include LULUCF into the 2030 GHG mitigation framework will be established as soon as technical conditions allow and in any case before 2020. No contribution from international credits. 15
Next steps Developing legislation for implementation as of 2021. ETS: 2030 target: -43% compared to 2005 Market Stability Reserve agreed ETS review: draft legislation, mid-2015 Non ETS: 2030 target: -30% compared to 2005 On-going public Consultations Draft legislation, 2016 LULUCF to be integrated. Building on KP rules, ensuring no backsliding. New governance system
Intended nationally determined contributions. Source: WRI Paris contribution map, PBL Infographics, 19 June 2015 Submitted INDC cover 30% global emissions. Need a critical mass of clear, ambitious, timely contributions by Paris. UNFCCC Secretariat Synthesis report: November 2015.
Mitigation objectives included or expected in INDC Share 2012 GHG emission reduction target GHG emissions Switzerl. 0.1% -50% By 2030 Below 1990 EU 9% At least -40% By 2030 Below 1990 Norway 0.1% At least -40% By 2030 Below 1990 Mexico 1.3% -25% (conditional: -40%) By 2030 Below BAU* US 12% -26% to -28% By 2025 Below 2005 Gabon 0.1% -50% By 2025 Below BAU Russia 5.3% -25% to -30% By 2030 Below 1990 Canada 1.9% -30% By 2030 Below 2005 Morocco 0.2% -13% (conditional: -32%) By 2030 Below BAU Ethiopia 0.3% -64% (conditional) By 2030 Below BAU China** 24% Peaking By 2030 'best efforts to peak early' Japan*** 2.8% -26% By 2030 Below 2013 Serbia**** 0.1% -9.8% By 2030 Below 1990 * Mexican INDC includes Short Lived Pollutants ** US-China joint announcement on Change, Beijing, China, 12 November 2014 *** Announced at G7, to be submitted to UNFCCC in July **** Adopted by PM on 11 June, to be submitted to UNFCCC in June-July
Aggregate stock-take of Intended nationally determined contributions. INDC scenario IEA special report on climate change Submitted Switzerland EU Norway Mexico US Gabon Russia Expected Japan Korea China India Brazil Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2015, Special report on Change
Aggregate stock-take of Intended nationally determined contributions. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2015, Special report on Change
All economies need to converge, starting with the major ones Source: EC-JRC, GECO2015
All economies need to converge, starting with the major ones Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook Special Report 2015: Energy and Change Source: EC-JRC, GECO2015
Dynamism - 5 yearly reviews to increase ambition, and stay below 2 C 23
Thank you! http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/
EU's climate diplomacy Stephan Auer Director of Multilateral Relations and Global Issues European External Service (EEAS) 23 June 2015
Renewables, Energy Efficiency, 2030 Marie Donnelly Director for Renewables, Research and Innovation, Energy Efficiency Directorate-General for Energy European Commission 23 June 2015
EU climate policy and the Emissions Trading System (ETS) Damien Meadows Adviser, European and International Carbon Markets Directorate-General for European Commission 23 June 2015
The EU ETS and its role in Energy Union The ETS is a functioning instrument to decarbonise (since 2005), applying across 31 countries, and half of EU's CO 2 emissions Binding linear reduction trajectory, with the EU-level price signal reinforcing internal market and uptake of low carbon technologies Shift since 2013 to significant auctioning, with Member States' revenues and dedicated funds supporting low carbon innovation Harmonised free allocations across EU for industries & heat, addressing risk of carbon leakage State-of-the-art and secure single electronic registry, and allowances fully included in financial market regulations
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Surplus [in million] Backloading and the Market Stability Reserve Long discussion following recession + influx of JI/CDM drawing to a close 3000 2500 Rapid accumulation Back-loading Persistent surplus 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Continued imbalance would have profoundly affected ability to meet the medium-term target in a cost-effective manner EU ETS made more resilient to large demand shocks in future
International uptake of ETS More and more calls for actual carbon pricing
EU ETS up to 2030 'A well-functioning reformed EU ETS' as main European instrument Annual 2.2% cap reduction from 2021 to deliver 43% cut Free allocation to prevent carbon leakage continued Redistribution of auction revenue: 90% among all 28 Member States / 10% among lower income Member States Scaled up Innovation funding (400 million allowances) Modernisation fund + national action to modernise power gen
EU ETS aspects seldom reported The EU ETS directly funds innovation Major use of EU ETS auction revenues ( 3bn for 2013), Member States' use of 2014 revenues reported in coming months Aviation's inclusion in ETS is working and effective: annual reductions, >99% compliance including over 100 commercial airlines from outside EU
The challenge of communicating carbon pricing - Important role of journalists - Progress is generally incremental - EU's experience putting carbon pricing into practice
Final words on first day of seminar Jos Delbeke Director General Directorate-General for European Commission 23 June 2015
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