Cattle ISSN: 1948-90 Released January 27, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). January 1 Cattle Inventory Down 2 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2012 totaled 90.8 million head, 2 percent below the 92.7 million on January 1, 2011. This is the lowest January 1 inventory of all cattle and calves since the 88.1 million on hand in 12. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 39.1 million, were down 2 percent from the million on January 1, 2011. Beef cows, at 29.9 million, were down 3 percent from January 1, 2011. Milk cows, at 9.2 million, were up 1 percent from January 1, 2011. Other class estimates on January 1, 2012 and the change from January 1, 2011, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 19.4 million, down 1 percent. Beef replacement heifers, 5.2 million, up 1 percent. Milk replacement heifers, 4.5 million, down 1 percent. Other heifers, 9.6 million, down 2 percent. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 16.1 million, down 2 percent. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.1 million, down 5 percent. Calves under 500 pounds, 14.1 million, down 3 percent. Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter in all feedlots, 14.1 million, up 1 percent. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds, and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds outside of feedlots was 25.7 million, down 4 percent. Calf Crop Down 1 Percent The 2011 calf crop was estimated at 35.3 million head, down 1 percent from 2010. This is the smallest calf crop since the 34.9 million born during 10. Calves born during the first half of 2011 are estimated at 25.7 million, down 1 percent from 2010.
Revisions All inventory and calf crop estimates for July 1, 2010, January 1, 2011, and July 1, 2011 were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. Based on the findings of this review, small adjustments of less than one-half percent were made to previously released inventory estimates by class and calf crop. State level estimates were reviewed and changes were made to reallocate inventory and calf crop estimates to the United States total. This report was approved on January 27, 2012. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer 2 Cattle (January 2012)
Contents Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012... 4 Cattle Inventory United States: January 1... 4 Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012... 5 Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 (continued)... 6 Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 (continued)... 7 Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 (continued)... 8 Calf Crop States and United States: 2010 and 2011... 9 Total Number of Cattle on Feed States and United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012... 10 Number of Cattle Grazing on Small Grain Pasture 3-State Total: January 1, 2011 and 2012... 11 Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop United States: July 1, 2010 and 2011... 11 Calf Crop and Total by Six Month Period United States: 2010 and 2011... 11 Statistical Methodology... 12 Reliability of January 1 Cattle Estimates... 13 Information Contacts... 13 Cattle (January 2012) 3
Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 Class 2011 2012 Cattle and calves... (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) 92,682.4 90,768.5 Cows and heifers that have calved... Beef cows... Milk cows... 39,9.2 30,849.6 9,149.6 39,112.4 29,882.9 9,229.5 Heifers 500 pounds and over... For beef cow replacement... Expected to calve 1... For milk cow replacement... Expected to calve 1... Other heifers... 19,575.8 5,138.6 3,16 4,568.2 3,056.3 9,869.0 19,387.8 5,211.6 3,201.3 4,52 3,029.9 9,649.2 Steers 500 pounds and over... Bulls 500 pounds and over... Calves under 500 pounds... 16, 2,155.1 14,555.3 16,07 2,05 14,144.8 Cattle on feed... 14,012.9 14,121.4 2010 2011 Calf crop... 35,694.8 35,313.2 1 Replacement heifers expected to calve during the year. Cattle Inventory United States: January 1 Million head 105 90 17 12 17 2002 2007 2012 4 Cattle (January 2012)
Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 State Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... All cattle and calves 2011 2012 All cows that have calved 2011 2012 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) 1,2 13.5 8 1,7 5, 2,6 49.0 1,6 1,0 1,2 1 9 1,6 5,3 2,7 49.0 19.0 1,7 1,0 106 106 105 6 5.6 36 9 2,3 8 2 8.5 1,0 580.0 6 37 9 2,400.0 880.0 2 8.5 1,0 5 107 Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland... 14 2,2 1,.0 8 3,900.0 6,300.0 2,1 7 19 1 2,2 1,0 8 3,900.0 6,.0 2,1 7 8 8 1,0 4 38 1,0 1,600.0 1,.0 480.0 4 9 80.0 1,0 4 3 1,.0 1,5 1,0 4 4 9 105 Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey... 1,0 2,380.0 900.0 3,9 2,500.0 6, 4 3 3 4 1,1 2,3 9 3,900.0 2,500.0 6,4 4 3 3 106 19.0 4 8 5 1,0.0 1,4 1,8 26 16.5 19.0 480.0 8 500.0 1,9 1,4 1,9 26 15.5 106 94 New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina... 1,5 1,400.0 1,700.0 1,2 5,.0 1,3 1,6 4.9 38 1,3 1,4 8 1,6 1,280.0 4,500.0 1,300.0 1,6 4.5 3 90 88 92 8 700.0 400.0 900.0 5 2,0 6 700.0 2.6 7 7 40 880.0 5 1,780.0 6 700.0 2.4 86 92 South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 3,700.0 1,0.0 13,300.0 2 1,5 1,0 3 3,4 1,300.0 3,6 1,0.0 11,900.0 2 1,4 1,1 3 3,400.0 1,3 89 105 105 1,700.0 1,0 5,4 4 14 7 48 2 1,5 700.0 1,700.0 1,000.0 4, 4 14 7 480.0 20 1,5 7 88 United States... 92,682.4 90,768.5 39,9.2 39,112.4 --continued Cattle (January 2012) 5
Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 (continued) State Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... Beef cows that have calved 2011 2012 Milk cows that have calved 2011 2012 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) 659.0 5.1 180.0 928.0 600.0 72 3.5 92 50 6 5.5 18 909.0 6 749.0 4.5 3.5 9 51 108 113 1 18 1 1,7 12 19.0 11 78.0 1 1 1,780.0 13 18.5 1 78.0 91 92 107 105 Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland... 79.0 44 35 21 8 1,478.0 1,02 46 1 4 78.1 469.0 33 19 89 1,42 45 4 105 94 92 107 77 57.0 17 2 12 7 19.0 3 5 1.9 58.0 17 20 12 7 3 5 Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey... 5.5.0 3 49 1,86 1,47 1,77 23 9.0 109.0 36 48 1,85 1,45 1,88 23 8.0 127 110 106 133 89 13.5 36 4 1 9 1 58.0 28.0 1 7.5 1 37 46 1 9 1 5 29.0 1 7.5 89 New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina... 488.0 35 880.0 2 2,01 549.0 15 18 43.0 3 86 300.0 1,728.0 54 1.3 18 89 111 86 87 32 6 4 2 5 12 54 1.1 1 33 6 4 2 5 12 5 1.1 1 90 South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 1,6 0.0 5,02 33 67 23 26 69 1,6 9 4,36 3 66 21 19 26 71 87 42 8 13 9 25 1,26 43 13.0 26 1,26 United States... 30,849.6 29,882.9 9,149.6 9,229.5 --continued 6 Cattle (January 2012)
Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 (continued) State Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... Heifers 500 pounds and over Beef cow replacement Milk cow replacement Other 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 89.0 1.7 2 13 1 1 1 6 9 1.6 3 11 1 15 2.5 0.7 11 7 0.2 7 7 9.5 2 0.2 6 7 9.5 3.3 3 3 0.2 7 2 5 0.7 39.0 0.1 1 2 5 3 Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland... 1 9 4 3 1 24 14 8 3.5 5 3 1 2 13 8 1 3 4 6 1 8 1 28.0 280.0 4 1 8 4 1 28.0 22 11 7 1,600.0 13 2 2.5 11 59.0 6 1,5 14 2 8.0 Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey... 2 7 300.0 40 300.0 3 2 8 2 41 35 4 7.5 148.0 2 7.5 158.0 28 8.0 1 6.5 1 2 2 21 1,380.0 3 4 18 3 2 21 1,4 3 New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina... 9 38.0 6 18 5 35.0 0.4 3 7 38.0 6 18 5 300.0 1 4 0.3 3 1 3 2 12 6 3 1 3 2 1 7 31 9 3 29.0 22 6 5 12 0.1 1 4 2 4 9 5 0.1 1 South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 280.0 1 6 5 5 3 6 1 3 1 5 6 9 5 3 16 2 3 2 4 6 49.0 12 700.0 3 2 5 5 1 680.0 57 80.0 1,6 5 6 10 5 5.0 1,5 4 5 11 2 1 United States... 5,138.6 5,211.6 4,568.2 4,52 9,869.0 9,649.2 --continued Cattle (January 2012) 7
Cattle Inventory by Class States and United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 (continued) State Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... Steers 500 pounds and over Bulls 500 pounds and over Calves under 500 pounds 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 0.7 27.0 5 9 2.4 39.0 5 0.4 300.0 1 6 9 2.4 2.4 3 2.1 1 0.6 0.3 2 4 2.9 0.6 0.4 2 32 1 40 1,.0 13 1 3 25 3 1.8 1 400.0 1,.0 1 1 3.2 3 23 Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland... 8.0 26 2.0 1,3 1,0.0 2 2 4.5 1 3 2.0 1,300.0 1,9 2 5.5 1 3 2 3 2 2 28.0 2 18 179.0 4 6 4 15 1 3 3 25 18 2 5 64 48 158.0 1 3 Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey... 1 4 48.0 3 19 2,3 17 46 6 3 2 2,280.0 4 1 3 39.0.0 8 1 1 3 39.0.0 8.0 1 8.0 47 9.0 26 6 5.5 9.0 2 4 22 9 9 3 6 6.5 New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina... 12 3 3 25 180.0 1,0 1 0.4 1 1 4 25 19 0.0 15 14 0.3 1 3 5 2 13 2 0.1 1 3 1 5 1 2 0.1 1 23 24 2 2 9 1 34 0.8 9 1 24 2 10 2 8 15 32 0.8 8 South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 7 1 2,7 9 3 3 6 2,500.0 180.0 4 3 180.0 8 7 380.0 2 1 300.0 19.0 1 28 480.0 2,300.0 1 49.0 3 14 5 700.0 9 27 4 1,9 10 4 3 14 6 680.0 1 United States... 16, 16,07 2,155.1 2,05 14,555.3 14,144.8 8 Cattle (January 2012)
Calf Crop States and United States: 2010 and 2011 State 2010 2011 Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) 580.0 3.9 2 1,0.0 780.0 2 8 4 5 2 2,0 8 4 107 117 Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland... 6 0.0 4 3 1,0 1,4 1,000.0 3 3 78.0 6 9 380.0 3 1,0 1,4 0.0 37 3 80.0 92 91 89 Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey... 38 400.0 1,8 1,4 1,6 2 14.5 1 3 780.0 38 1,8 1,4 1,6 21 1 1 92 New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina... 6 5 3 880.0 4 1,900.0 6 600.0 2.4 16 6 5 3 8 4 1,8 6 5 2.2 109 92 South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 1,6 9 4, 36 12 6 4 1,3 6 1,6 9 4,6 36 11 6 4 18 1,380.0 680.0 United States... 35,694.8 35,313.2 Cattle (January 2012) 9
Total Number of Cattle on Feed States and United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012 [Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle and calves on feed are included in the cattle inventory estimates by classes] State 2011 2012 Arizona... California... Colorado... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Maryland... (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent) 258.0 4 1,.0 2 129.0 1,380.0 2,400.0 279.0 5 1,1 2 10 1,300.0 2,3 108 109 106 83 94 Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New York... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... 1 3 2,5 8.0 2 1 380.0 1 3 5 3 2,6 2 180.0 380.0 88 110 107 88 106 Oregon... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... 7 7 400.0 2,8 2 21 2 7 3 9.0 2,9 2 2 23 2 80 90 115 109 Wyoming... 6 7 114 Other States 1... 91.9 88.4 United States... 14,012.9 1 Individual state estimates not available for states not shown, but are included in Other States. 14,121.4 10 Cattle (January 2012)
Number of Cattle Grazing on Small Grain Pasture 3-State Total: January 1, 2011 and 2012 States 2011 2012 (million head) (million head) (percent) Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas... 1.60 9 Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop United States: July 1, 2010 and 2011 Class 2010 2011 Cattle and calves... (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (percent),.0,000.0 Cows and heifers that have calved... Beef cows... Milk cows... 40,900.0 31,7 9,1 40,600.0 31,400.0 9, Heifers 500 pounds and over... For beef cow replacement... For milk cow replacement... Other heifers... 16, 4,400.0 4,0 7,7 16,000.0 4, 4, 7,600.0 Steers 500 pounds and over... Bulls 500 pounds and over... Calves under 500 pounds... 14,400.0 2,.0 27,500.0 14, 2,000.0 27, Calf crop... 35,694.8 35,313.2 Cattle on feed... 11,900.0 12, Calf Crop and Total by Six Month Period United States: 2010 and 2011 Period January 1 - June 30... July 1 - December 31... Number 2010 2011 total Number total (1,000 head) (percent) (1,000 head) (percent) 25,900.0 9,794.8 72.6 27.4 25,700.0 9,613.2 72.8 27.2 Total... 35,694.8.0 35,313.2.0 Cattle (January 2012) 11
Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 40,000 operators during the first half of January by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews and 77 percent of the reports were usable. Regardless of when operators responded, they were asked to report inventories as of January 1. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the are subject to revision when current estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 10 years is percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 90.8 million head by more than percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. The table on the following page shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 347,000 head, ranging from 6,000 to 830,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been above the latest estimate 6 times and below the latest estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the January 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. 12 Cattle (January 2012)
Reliability of January 1 Cattle Estimates [Based on data for the past ten years] Item All cattle... Root mean square error (percent) 90 percent confidence level (percent) 0.9 Difference between first and latest estimate Average Smallest Largest (1,000 head) 347 (1,000 head) 6 (1,000 head) 830 Above latest (number) Years 6 Below latest (number) 4 All cows... 0.6 1.1 165 0 505 6 3 Calf crop... 1.8 272 10 674 5 5 Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill Cattle, Cattle on Feed... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen Livestock Slaughter... (515) 284-4340 Doug Bounds Hogs and Pigs, Goats... (202) 720-3106 Mike Miller Milk Production and Milk Cows... (202) 720-3278 Everett Olbert Dairy Products Prices... (202) 720-4751 Lorie Warren Dairy Products, Sheep... (202) 690-3236 Cattle (January 2012) 13
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