URBAN GREEN GROWTH IN DYNAMIC ASIA PROJECT Tadashi Matsumoto, Ph.D. OECD 8 June 2015, Presentation at ICLEI Resilient Cities Conference, Bonn, Germany
OECD s approach to enhance resilience Location matters! OECD s Urban Green Growth in Dynamic Asia project Managing critical risks requires investment not only on hard but also soft and social infrastructure OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks The OECD High Level Risk Forum Cross-cutting policy approach, based on dialogue between national and subnational governments OECD national urban policy reviews OECD Urban Roundtable for Mayors and Ministers
Green Growth and Resilience: Cities Matter! Cities are focal points for growth but also for environmental externalities and vulnerabilities: One third of GDP growth during 1995-2007 was produced by just 2% of OECD regions. Cities account for 67% of global energy use and 71% of global energyrelated CO2 emissions. Average global flood losses, estimated at about USD 6 billion per year in 2005, could reach USD 1 trillion by 2050 in 136 of the world s largest coastal cities. 3
Urgency in Asia: vulnerability to floods Top 20 cities most exposed to floods in terms of population in the 2070s India 63.2m (6%) Bangladesh: 62.5m (46%) China: 143.9m (11%) Vietnam: 43.0m (55%) Altogether, the ten countries with the largest populations in low-lying coastal zones have some 400m inhabitants living in such places. Indonesia: 41.6m (20%) Source: Hanson, S. et al. (2011), A Global Ranking of Port Cities with High Exposure to Climate Extremes, Climatic Change, Vol. 104, Issue 1, pp. 89-111. 4
Income growth comes with urbanisation; however urbanisation doesn t guarantee it Income gap (US=1) 1 0.9 GDP Income per gap capita relative gap to vs US=1 urbanisation vs Urbanization rate rate 0.8 0.7 0.6 JPN '70 JPN '05 KOR '05 0.5 0.4 Malaysia 05 BRZ '05 BRZ '70 0.3 CHN '05 0.2 Malaysia 70 0.1 CHN '70 KOR '70 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Source: Own creation based on World Bank World Development Indicators. Urbanisation rate (%) 5
Urban Green Growth in Dynamic Asia: Objectives and key outputs Promote green growth in fast-growing cities in Asia by examining policies and governance practices that encourage greening and competitiveness in a rapidly expanding economy. Key outputs: Conceptual framework: working paper (2014) 5 city-based case studies (2014-15) Knowledge sharing workshops (2014-15) Policy assessment report for strengthening urban resilience / disaster risk management (2016) Synthesis report (2016) 6
CASE STUDY: BANGKOK
Green Growth in BMR: Potential and challenges Strong long-term growth potential, but also challenges Catch-up held back by skill shortages Income disparities undermine social cohesion Obstacles to greener growth need to be overcome Increasing motorisation/urban sprawl Rising energy consumption/reliance on fossil fuels High flood risk Relatively high levels of untreated wastewater Landfilled solid waste 8
Street layout undermines potential to develop green and resilient cities 9
BMR s resilience to floods Key recommendations: Encourage more adaptive management of infrastructure (e.g. natural habitats, semipermeable surfaces) Impact of the 2011 floods on low income communities in the City of Bangkok Assess and map flood risk Introduce business continuity plans Enhance awareness and response capacities in districts through schools, religious centres, and the media Source: UN ESCAP (2012), The Thailand floods of 2011: While businesses lost millions, the urban poor lost out most the floods, Sustainable Urban Development Section s internal working papers 10
Strategic and implementation levers Metropolitan commissions informed by BMR-wide performance indicators and supported by metropolitan funds Community-based actions to leverage local knowledge and expertise Attracting private investors (e.g. green municipal bonds) and diversifying sources of revenue (e.g. wastewater tariffs) 11
Key implications from the study Integrated approach green growth and urban disaster risk management Location specific solutions, e.g., urban planning Metropolitan governance - functional urban areas
Next Steps 4 more case studies Cebu Bandung Haiphong Iskandar Malaysia 4 th knowledge sharing WS (25-27 June, Hai Phong) Side-event at COP21 (Nov-Dec 2015) Synthesis report (early 2016) 13
THANK YOU For further information: Tadashi.MATSUMOTO@oecd.org