Green Growth and Water. Raekwon Chung Director Environment and Development Division, UN ESCAP

Transcription

1 Green Growth and Water Raekwon Chung Director Environment and Development Division, UN ESCAP

2 Vicious cycle/maximization of Short Term Quantity of Growth (GDP) Exploiting Human Capital Natural Capital Worsening social exclusion Low labor productivity Widening income gap High resource intensity Low resource efficiency Ecological unsustainability Low economic Dynamism/ resilience High economic vulnerability Undermining economic vitality

3 Virtuous cycle/pursuing Long Term Quality of Growth (GDP) Investing Human Capital Natural Capital High labor productivity Social inclusion Equitable income distribution High resource efficiency Low resource intensity Ecological sustainability High economic Dynamism/ resilience Low economic vulnerability Reinforcing economic vitality

4 Sustainable Development Model: Purple & Green Growth have to go hand in hand (integration of 3 pillars)

5 GG: new paradigm for system change Green Growth: shifting from intensive to energy/resource/carbon/water Efficient pattern Different pattern of ecological footprint: Japan/4ha, Europe/6ha, US/9ha per capita Green Growth: process to arrive at Green Economy GG: trade-off to synergy Time Gap: Long Term vs Short Term Efficiency Gap: Economic Efficiency vs Ecological Efficiency Price Gap: Market Price vs Real Value Fundamental Transformation of Economic System Invisible Structure: Fiscal Policy, lifestyle, regulations, Visible Structure: Physical Infra, urban design, Water infra Leading Role of public sector

6 Closing Time & Price gaps Fundamental reason for failure of investing in natural capital Time gaps - gap between investments in returns from natural capital and other capitals: expand the time horizon of development planning to long term Price gaps gap between the ecological price & market price; introducing fiscal reform and ETR; double dividend Strategy for SD/SDG

7 Ecological tax reform: Double Dividend / Revenue Neutrality Powerful tool for GG/GE and sustainable development Double Dividend of improving ecological efficiency and increasing Employment and Growth simultaneously (GE) is possible. Provides opportunities for financing the Goods revenue recycling into socially and environmentally desirable investments - Taxing the Bads not the Goods - Shifting investments to natural & human capital - Revenue neutrality supports political acceptability

8 Well-design environmental tax reforms can have positive impacts: carbon tax combined with Income, Consumption, Corporate Tax Reduction It could help some Southeast Asian countries to escape the middleincome trap and achieve high-income status. Environmental tax reform for low carbon green growth: major findings and policy implications from a multi-regional economic simulation analysis (UNESCAP 2012): US$10 ton carbon tax with reduction of income, consumption, corporate tax

9 Low-carbon green growth roadmap & e-learning facility ESCAP Low Carbon Green Growth Roadmap - 5 tracks sd/environment/lcgg/ 1. Improving the quality of growth and maximizing net growth 2.Changing the invisible structure of the economy: Closing the gap between economic and ecological efficiencies 3.Changing the visible structure of the economy: Planning and designing ecoefficient Infrastructure Online e-learning facility Low Carbon Green Growth Roadmap; Fundamentals of Green Growth; Liveable Cities; Sustaining Growth 4.Turning green into a business opportunity 5. Formulating and implementing low carbon development strategies 63 fact sheets, 51 case studies & 8 policy papers

10 Applying GG for Water Water: core of Natural Capital Shifting from short term Exploitation to long term Investment in Water infra: closing time gap Improving Water Efficiency both in water Supply and Consumption: closing price/efficiency gap Shifting from trade-off to synergy between Water and Economic Growth; Re-balancing the role of public and private sector Any success story? Costa Rica, tax on fossil fuel invested in Forestry/Water resources Ecotourism high quality Economic Growth,

11 Green growth is not a separate strategy from long-term economic growth and higher levels of well-being, but rather is a means to achieve them. OECD(2014), Towards Green Growth in Southeast Asia

12 Development in Southeast Asia is leading to natural capital depletion Natural capital is being depleted at different rate across ASEAN countries This rate of depletion across the region prove unsustainable development Natural capital has been depleted at an increasing rate in ASEAN countries Percent GNI, yearly average Total: Net forest depletion, Energy depletion and Mineral depletion

13 Green growth objectives in Southeast Asian countries national development plans Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Resilience to natural disaster s/adaptation to climate change Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Sustainable forest and land management Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Renewable energy Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Air pollution,water pollution and waste Water Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Energy security Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Food security Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No Yes Sustainable fossil fuel and minerals extraction No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Green technology No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Energy efficiency No Marginal Margin al Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Climate change mitigation No Yes No Yes No No No No Yes

14 Green growth is increasingly integrated into ASEAN national development plans Myanmar National Sustainable Development Strategy of Myanmar (2011) Thailand National Strategy on Climate Change Thailand Climate Change Master Plan ; National Strategy on Climate Change Malaysia National Green Technology Policy(2009) National Policy on Climate Change (2009) Lao PDR Strategy on Climate Change of the Lao PDR (2010) Vietnam National Green Growth Strategy for the period with a vision to 2050 National Action Plan on Green Growth for Period Sustainable Development Strategy for National Strategy on Climate Change for Cambodia The National Green Growth Roadmap (2009) Climate Change Strategic Plan Singapore Singapore sustainable Development Blueprint (2009) National Climate Change Strategy (2012) Philippines National Framework Strategy on Climate Change National Climate Change Action Plan Indonesia National Action Plan Addressing Climate Change (2007) Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap(2009) The National Action Plan for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction(2011)

15 Green growth is not a separate strategy from long-term economic growth, but rather is a means to achieve them Vietnam National Green Growth Strategy for the period with a vision to 2050 National Action Plan on Green Growth for Period Sustainable Development Strategy for National Strategy on Climate Change for Environmental Protection Tax Law Doubling GDP per capita compared to 2010 levels Reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 1.5-2% per year Reducing the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 8-10%. Amount of 16-20% with international support Thailand National Strategy on Climate Change Thailand Climate Change Master Plan ; National Strategy on Climate Change Pollution Management Plan ( ) Inter-ministerial Coordinating Board for implementation of the Green Growth Strategy A long term strategy laid out in the 20-year Energy Efficiency Development Plan Economic Instruments for Environmental Management Act Under the assumption that the annual economic growth rate will be at 4.2% in average The cumulative final energy saving up to 2030 will be an annual average of 14,500 ktoe, and avoided CO2 emission an annual average of 49 million tons. About 50 million tons of avoided CO2 emission can be achieved. Overall, the environmental quality improvement and a positive impact on the macroeconomic arena can be expected

16 Removing fossil fuel energy subsidies is integral to green growth In June 2013, Indonesia increased petrol prices by 44% and diesel by 22% to cut its annual subsidy bill of $20 billion Promoting natural gas use in transport to reduce oil subsidies Continuing successful kerosene to LPG conversion program, which started in 2007 Electricity tariffs are set to rise by 15% in 2013 (based on quarterly increase for all but consumers with the lowest level of consumption Set a target for clean cooking to 85% by2015 from only 45% today (OECD/ IEA 2013) Generating a permanent real GDP gain of between 0.4% and 0.7% by Reducing Indonesian greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by between 7.9%8.3% Reducing CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by 10.8% and 12.6% by 2020 Expecting other environmental co-benefits such as improvements in air quality