National Drought Management Authority KAJIADO COUNTY EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR APRIL 2015 APRIL EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators * The six months cumulative rainfall (Nov 2014 April 2015) was 417.6 mm. This was 19.1% more of the long term average. * The water situation in the county was described as adequate. Production Indicators (Impact Indicators) * No livestock out migration was reported in April. * Cattle body condition was fair while that of goats and sheep was good. * Milk production was 2.6 liters per day per household. Access Indicators * The terms of trade was 71 kg of maize per goat. * Milk consumption was 1.6 liters per day per household. Utilization Indicators * Percentage of under five at risk of malnutrition was 8.24 Current Drought Risk 1 LIVELIHOOD EW TRENDS ZONE PHASE PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING MIXED FARMING NORMAL STABLE COUNTY ALERT IMPROVING Biophysical Observed Normal Value Indicators Value % of average rainfall 119.1 80-120 (Nov 2014 April 2015) State of Water Sources 5 5 Production indicators Livestock Migration Pattern Livestock Body Conditions Observed Value No migration Normal 5 7 9 No Migration Access Indicators Observed Long Term Value Value TOT 71 53 Utilization indicators Value Normal % of U5 with MUAC 8.24 0-5 <135mm Low Medium High * The drought risk situation in the county for the month of April was medium. It was therefore recommendable for drought management actors to focus on drought preparedness activities to enhance community resilience. Prioritized activities were capacity building on beef value chain, range land management, post-harvest practices and both human and livestock disease surveillance.
1.0 ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS 1.1 METEROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Rainfall Onset of rainfall The long rains started in the first week of April compared to the forecasted onset of between 3 rd and 4 th week of March. Compared to the normal onset, the long rains started late. The normal onset of long rains is the second week of March. Spatial distribution Rainfall was unevenly distributed across the county between the 1 st and 3 rd week of week of April. Magadi and Mile 46 in Kajiado West received very little rains well Kajiado South had fair spatial distribution of rains. In the 4 th week of April, evenly distributed rains were experienced across the entire county. Temporal distribution In the month of April the county received rainfall for nearly 20 continuous days. In April Ngong meteorological station recorded a total of 267.3 mm of rainfall as follows; 2/4 0.2 mm, 3/4 4.2 mm, 4/4 20.2 mm, 5/4 29.6 mm, 7/4 10.0 mm, 8/4 30.2 mm, 10/4 2.9 mm, 11/4 2.3 mm, 13/4 7.4 mm, 16/4 4.6 mm, 17/4 22.8 mm, 18/4 0.4 mm, 19/4 3.3 mm, 20/4 10.5 mm, 22/4 25.6 mm, 23/4-22.3 mm, 25/4 8.8 mm, 26/4 43.1 mm, 27/4 4.5 mm, 28/4 14.4 mm (Source: County department of Meteorological Services). Amount of Rainfall The six months (November 2014 April 2015) cumulative rainfall was 67 mm more compared to the six months long term cumulative averages rainfall (417.6 mm compared to 350.6 mm). This was 19.1 % more of the cumulative long term averages for the same period Figure 1: Rainfall performance for Kajiado County 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Quality and Quality Pasture was fair across all livelihood zones following fair rains in the county that led to regeneration of pasture. Areas with poor pasture included Mbirikani in Kajiado South, Mile 46, Magadi and Ewuaso in Kajiado West. Pasture was below normal at this time of the year due to delayed onset of the rains but was expected to improve by 1 st week of May. 2
Browse was good and normal at this time of the year across all livelihood zones. It was expected to last for three months. 1.2.2 Vegetation Condition Index In the month of April, the vegetation condition index (VCI) for the county was 16.77 which implies that in April this year the vegetation condition was worse compared to other months of April in the previous years (Figure 2). The VCI season graph shows a deteriorating trend and below the long term average (Figure 3). Deterioration of vegetation condition in April was due to delayed onset of long rains. Substantial amount of rains in the county were experienced in the 4 th week of April. The VCI for sub-counties in April were: Kajiado Central 18.47, Kajiado East 20.32, Kajiado North 26.89, Kajiado South 16.01 and Kajiado West 14.01. Figure 2: 3-Monthy Vegetation condition index matrix for Kajiado County Figure 3: 3-Monthly vegetation condition index seasonal graph for Kajiado County 3
1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resources The main sources of water for livestock in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones in the month of April were dams and pans. Boreholes and shallow river wells were sources for water for domestic use. Piped water was being used in pastoral areas of Ewuaso and Mbirikani mainly for domestic use. These were the normal sources at this time of the year. Dams and pans were significantly recharged after the rains and these sources were expected to last for about two months 1.3.2 Household access to Water Following the April rains that recharged dams, pans and shallow river wells, the average distance from the household to the water point decreased to 3.95 km from 7.57 km in March. Variation in distances to water point from household existed across livelihood zones and within livelihood zone. High distances of up to 6 km were observed in Pastoral livelihood zone of Meto in Kajiado Central while in pastoral livelihood of Loodokilani in Kajiado West the distance to water point from the household was 1 km. Figure 4: Household distance to water sources for Kajiado County 1.3.3 Livestock access to water The average distance from grazing areas to main water sources in April was 4.68 km compared to 6.61 km in March. The decline in distance was due to April rains that recharged pans and dams. The April average distance was below the long term average of 4.95 km. Long distances of up to 10 km were observed in pastoral livelihood of Mbirikani in Kajiado South while short distances of about 1 km were observed in pastoral livelihood of Loodokilani in Kajiado West. Figure 5: Distance to water source from grazing areas for Kajiado County 4
2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Migration patterns Return migration of cattle from Tanzania to Meto and that from Chyulu hills to Mbirikani were reported in the month of April. 2.1.2 Livestock Body Condition Cattle body condition was still poor in most parts of the county. However following the rains in April, the situation was expected to improve in the next two to three weeks as a result of improved pasture and shorter distances to watering points. Sheep and goat body condition was good across all the livelihood zones due to good browse. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases There were no reports of outbreak of livestock diseases in the month of April. Mass vaccination was carried out in February and March by County Government and National Drought Management Authority. 2.1.4 Milk Production The average milk production per household slightly increased to 2.6 liters per day from less than one liter per day in the month of March. The increase was due to improved pasture and water availability as a result of long rains. Variations in milk production across livelihood zones were significant. The average milk production per day per household in agro pastoral livelihood was 3.95 liters compared to 1.31 liters in pastoral zones The milk production for the month of April was below the long term average owing to delayed long rains that came in April as opposed to March. Pasture had not yet fully regenerated and cattle body condition was still poor. 2.2 Rain-fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Crop Production and Performance During the fourth week of April, weeding was going on in most farms in agro pastoral areas of Mashuuru and Enkorika and in mixed farming zones of Loitokitok and Ngurman Main crops grown during the long rains were maize and beans. Maize were a foot high while beans had four to six leaves 3.0 ACCESSS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade The term of trade in April improved to 71 kilogram of maize per goat from 63 kilograms of maize per goat. Improvement in terms of trade was due to improved prices of goats and stabilized market price of maize. The terms of trade for April was above long term average of 53 kilograms of maize per goat. In April last year one would buy 76 kilograms of maize by selling a goat 5
Figure 6: Terms of trade for Kajiado County 3.1.2 Cattle Prices The average household price for a mature bull in April was Ksh 16,897 compared to Ksh 16,010 in March. The increased price of cattle in April was due to improved body condition in comparison to March. This price was above the long term average price of Ksh 16,777. In April 2014, a mature bull was selling at Ksh 24,504. The highest cattle price of Ksh 18,313 was observed in Mbirikani while the lowest price of Ksh 15,250 was observed in Rombo in Kajiado South. Figure 7: Average price of cattle for Kajiado County 3.1.3 Goat Prices The average household price of a medium size goat in April was Ksh 2,908 compared to Ksh 2,595 in March. The increase in price was a result of improved body condition of goats due to improved browse following long rains in April. The April price was above the long term average of Ksh 2,588 for the same month. In April last year, a medium goat was selling at Ksh 3,250 There were no significant differences in goats prices observed across livelihoods. 6
Figure 8: Average price of goats for Kajiado County 3.1.4. Sheep Prices The average household price of a medium sheep improved from Ksh 2,587 in March to Ksh 2,961 in April. The improved price of sheep was due to improved body condition following April rains that lead to improvement in browse. The April price was above the long term average of Ksh 2,462 for the same month. In April last year, a medium sheep was selling at Ksh 3,180 The highest sheep price of Ksh 3,233 was observed in Meto in Kajiado Central while the lowest price of Ksh 2,600 was observed in Loodokilani in Kajiado West. Figure 9: Average price for sheep for Kajiado County 3.1.5 Milk prices The household price of milk price in April was Ksh 44 for a 750 ml bottle compared to Ksh 50 in March. Increase in milk price was due to anticipated increase in production Much of the milk produced was restricted to consumption at household level. Sale of milk was confined to agro pastoral areas of Kiserian where dairy farming was practiced. 3.2 Price of Cereals and other food Products 3.2.1 Price of Maize The market price of maize remained stable since December 2014. In April 2015, a kilogram of maize was retailing at Ksh 41. Stability of the maize prices was due to substantial supply of maize from Tanzania. The April price for maize was above the long term average of Ksh 39 per kilogram. In April last year a kilogram of maize was selling at Ksh 43. 7
Figure 10: Average price of maize for Kajiado County 3.2.2 Price of Beans On average, the market price for beans increased from Ksh 82 per kilogram in March to Ksh 85 per kilogram in April. The increased price of beans was attributed to increased demand for the food stuff. In Ewuaso a kilogram of beans was being sold at Ksh 98 per kilogram. The price of beans for April this year was below long term average of Ksh 93 as while as below the price of April last year. Figure 11: Average price of beans for Kajiado County 3.3 Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption The average household milk consumption in April was 1.2 liters per day in comparison to less than a liter in March. Low milk consumption at the household was attributed to low production. In April 2014 the average household milk consumption per day was 2.70 liters. 4.0 UTILIZATION INDICATORS 4.1 Health and Nutrition Status 4.1.1 MUAC The risk of malnutrition for children aged between 12 to 59 months in the county improved in the month of April compared to March. 8
In April the percentage of children aged 12 to 59 months who were at risk of malnutrition was 8.24 compared to 11.33 in March. The April situation is worse than the long term average. The reduction in the percentage of children aged 12 to 59 months who are at risk of malnutrition is would be attributed to increased milk consumption and improved terms of trade. Figure 12: Percentage of Children aged 12 59 months at risk of malnutrition for Kajiado County 4.2 Human Health. No cases of human disease outbreak were reported in the month of April. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION 5.1 Current Interventions Equiping of sand dams at Enkorika and Maparasha by Neighbors Initiative (NIA) Protection of Kerema spring by Neighbors Initiative Alliance Capacity building for five groups on breeder cow rearing, one group on bee keeping and seven groups trained on Village savings and loans by Feed the Children Mass screening for under five in Kajiado West, Kajiado Central and Kajiado East by Kenya Red Cross Society in collaboration with the Ministry of Health Training of Technical County Steering Group and community on Community Managed Disaster Risk Reduction by Kenya Rural Development Programme Provision of subsidized fertilizer to farmers by National Cereals and Produce Board through the Ministry of Agriculture Promotion of traditional high value crops in Kajiado Central by Ministry of Agriculture 5.2 Recommendations to County Steering Group Capacity building on Value beef value chain by Agricultural Sector Development Support Programme Capacity building on range land management by Livestock production sector Home Grown School Meals programme across the county by Ministry of Education Capacity building on drought management by National Drought Management Authority Livestock disease surveillance by Veterinary services Capacity building on post-harvest practices by Agriculture sector 9