Trends in International LNG Anthony Patten, Partner, Allens Presentation to AMPLA State Conference Fremantle, Western Australia 18 May 2012 Allens is an independent partnership operating in alliance with Linklaters LLP.
Overview 3/11 and Fukushima State of the key LNG markets Australia s escalating role in LNG production The competition Qatar The competition North America Conclusions 2
3/11 and Fukushima Shift away from nuclear Japan s LNG demand expected to rise from 70 mtpa in 2010 to 82 mtpa in 2012 LNG imports hit a monthly all time record in January 2012 (8.2 mtpa) China, Korea and Taiwan remain Japan s major competitors for LNG supply Korea, as an example, is experiencing significant growth in LNG demand 2011 imports already at anticipated 2015 levels Tightening of the LNG shipping market 3
State of the key LNG markets - US Shale gas Henry hub pricing at historic lows Nymex Henry Hub futures at US$2.51 / MMBtu on 15 May close Significant unutilised regasification capacity Arbitrage opportunities 4
State of the key LNG markets - Europe UK NBP pricing (spot price at 14 May = US$9.22 / MMBtu) European gas pricing delinkage of gas and oil Demand expected to grow Need for new infrastructure (gas storage, pipelines) Eurozone issues 5
State of the key LNG markets Asia Growing demand in Asia Typical pricing at approximately US$15 / MMBtu Some evidence of S curves setting floor and ceiling Underpinned by strong, sustained demand in: Japan Korea China India 6
Australia s escalating role in LNG production 2011 FIDs Gladstone LNG APLNG Wheatstone Prelude Ichthys Donggi Senoro (Indonesia) 7
Australia s escalating role in LNG production Australian LNG production likely to surpass Qatar by 2017 Australia, Qatar, Russia, Iran and Nigeria to account for 75% of global LNG capacity by 2020 8
The competition - Qatar 2 operating entities: QatarGas; and RasGas Qatar Petroleum role Total current export capacity: 77.1 mtpa Oil and gas revenue accounts for 60% of GDP Moratorium on further development of the North Field until at least 2014 9
QatarGas Project Participants Capacity (mtpa) QatarGas 1 Qatar Petroleum (65% ) ExxonMobil (10%) Mitsui (7.5%) Marubeni (7.5%) QatarGas 2 Qatar Petroleum (70%) ExxonMobil (30%) First gas Primary offtake 9.6 1996 Japan, Spain 15.6 2009 UK, Europe, Asia QatarGas 3 Qatar Petroleum (68.5% ) ConocoPhillips (30%) Mitsui (1.5%) 7.8 2010 US, Asia, Europe QatarGas 4 Qatar Petroleum (70%) Shell (30%) 7.8 2011 US, Asia, Europe TOTAL CAPACITY 40.8 10
RasGas Each project owned and operated under incorporated joint venture structure between: Qatar Petroleum (70%); and ExxonMobil (30%) Project Capacity (mtpa) First gas Trains 1 and 2 6.6 1999 Korea Primary offtake Trains 3, 4 and 5 14.1 2004-2007 India, Europe Trains 6 and 7 15.6 2009 US TOTAL CAPACITY 36.3 11
Qatari LNG supply essential features Qatar Petroleum controls all projects QatarGas Operating Company markets all LNG from QatarGas projects Qatari presence throughout value chain (including shipping and regasification) 100 % of offtake typically sold to IOC partner Significant focus on US markets as baseline 12
Qatari LNG supply essential features Significant seller diversion rights Target Asian oil-linked pricing Contracts facilitate short and long term diversions (eg US to Asia) Largely DES sales using large vessels Relatively onerous LNG SPA terms English or New York law International arbitration 13
The competition North America Shale gas production Henry Hub pricing Stranded regasification assets LNG re-export LNG export 14
Approved North American LNG export projects Project Participants Location Expected Capacity Sabine Pass Liquefaction Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC (Cheniere Energy Partners) Kitimat LNG KM LNG Operating General Partnership (Apache Canada Ltd) (40% - Operator) EOG Resources Canada Inc (30%) Encana Corporation (30%) Douglas Channel BC LNG Export Co-operative LLC LNG Partners HN DC LNG LP Douglas Channel Energy Partnership DCEP Gas Management Cameron Parish, Louisiana Kitimat, British Columbia Kitimat, British Columbia Progress ~16 mtpa FERC & DOE approved 5 mtpa 20 year Export Licence issued by National Energy Board 1.8 mtpa 20 year Export Licence issued by National Energy Board 15
Proposed North American LNG export projects At least twelve proposed export projects in various stages of development in North America, including: Project Participants Location Expected Capacity Corpus Christi Liquefaction Jordan Cove LNG Project Corpus Christi Liquefaction, LLC (Cheniere Energy Partners) San Patricio County, Texas Veresen Inc Coos County, Oregon Cameron LNG Cameron LNG (affiliate of Sempra LNG) Hackberry, Louisiana Dominion Cove Point LNG Dominion Cove Point LNG, LP (Dominion Resources Inc) Lusby, Maryland Progress 13.5 mtpa FERC pre-filing review initiated 6 mtpa FERC pre-filing status granted 12 mtpa DOE authorisation granted (US-FTA countries only) ~7.5 mtpa DOE authorisation granted (US-FTA countries only) Continued on next slide 16
Proposed North American LNG Export Projects Project Participants Location Expected Capacity Freeport LNG Freeport LNG Development, L.P. Brazoria County, Texas LNG Canada Shell Canada Ltd PetroChina Kogas Mitsubishi Corp Kitimat, British Columbia Progress 13.2 mpta DOE authorisation granted (US-FTA countries only) 12 mtpa Studies to be undertaken Lavaca Bay LNG project (floating facility) Excelerate Energy Port Lavaca, Texas Gulf Coast 3-4 mpta (up to 8 mtpa) In development 17
North American LNG supply essential features No upstream investment Liquid pipeline gas market Approvals risk FOB sales Buyer destination flexibility LNG sold on Henry Hub pricing CSP = (1.15 x HH) + X No price review 18
North American LNG supply essential features Take-or-pay basis but Buyer suspension or cancellation rights Deduct from adjusted annual contract quantity Buyer pays monthly sales charge only Significant flexibility for Buyer New York law Arbitration in US 19
Conclusions Growing demand in Asia Customers want diversity of supply Australian LNG seen as premium product Reliability High cost Continued growth in Qatari diversions into Asia Mammoth gas reserves in North America How much US gas will be exported? What will be the effect on US gas prices (and Asian LNG prices)? 20
Disclaimer The information and statistical data contained in this presentation has been collated from publicly available sources and is indicative only 21