Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Impact of East Asian Economic Integration over resource demands Yasuhiko Hotta, PhD Institute t for Global l Environmental Strategies t The 3 rd International Conference on Waste Management and Technology, November 5-7 th 2008, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Founded in 1998 with supported from the Government of Japan, Policy research institute working to promote SD in the Asia-Pacific region, involved in a number of policy processes such as 3R Initiative and APFED, 7 Project Areas: Climate Policy, Biofuel, Forest Conservation, Fresh Water, Waste and Resources, Capacity Development and Education, Business and Environment. 2 teams for inter-project collaboration: Policy and Governance Team and Economic Analysis Team 60 full time researchers Headquarters: Hayama (south of Tokyo), 3 other domestic offices (Tokyo, Kobe, and Kitakyusyu), and 2 international offices (Bangkok and Beijing) More information at www.iges.or.jp Y.Hotta, WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 2
Outline of the presentation 1. Internationalization of waste and recycling-related issues 2. Limitation of nation-based recycling system 3. Modeling analysis of impact of regional economic integration (2001-2020) 2020) 4. Four strategic options 5. Regional recycling mechanism as a strategic option Y.Hotta, WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 3
1-1. Internationalization of waste and recycling related issues in Asia Waste and recycling issues have been internationalized; they can no longer be addressed by domestic measures alone A. Problems from economic integration Increased waste generation (quantity and complexity) Increased illegal waste trade, trade in recyclables, improper recycling Environmental damage from improper recycling and illegal and open dumping Especially air, water, & soil contamination Especially toxic and dhard dto manage materials from e-waste B. Opportunities from economic integration Opportunity for increased efficiency and specialization in recycling (increased efficiency of resource utilisation) Increasing needs for regional policy response See more detailed argument in Hotta and Elder et. al. (2008), Policy Considerations for Establishing an Environmentally-Sound Regional Material Flow in East Asia. The Journal of Environment & Development., March 2008 4 Y.Hotta, WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 4
1-2. Internationalization of waste and recycling-related issues in Asia Developing countries Increased volume of production and consumption Change in lifestyle Increase in waste Change in quality and type of waste Increase in resource demand in developing Asia Waste-related environmental issues Improper recycling in developing Asia 1.Increased Waste Generation in Asia (especially in developing countries) Further economic integratio n Internationalizati on of product life-cycle Further international division of labor Rising international price of resources International trade of recyclables and reusables (including illegal trade) 2.Illegal trade and improper treatment of reusables and recyclables Rising Disposal cost Hollowing out (Especially materials and component industry) Recyclingrelated legislation Governmental support for recycling industry Lower domestic demand for recyclables Accumulation of recyclables and reusables through legislation Outflow of recyclables and reusbales Incentive to recover cost of collection and transportation Damage to domestic recycling industry Developed countries 3.Internationali zation of waste and recyclingrelated issues Domestic issues mainly related to developing countries Direction of influences among issues Source: Hotta, Elder et al. (2008) International issues Domestic issues mainly related to developed countries Group of issues
2. Policy implications of internationalization of waste and recycling-related issues: a case of Japan Under expected further economic integration of East Asia and Southeast Asia, the following issues will become more prominent than now; -Further outflow of recyclable resources -Further expansion of foreign market of secondhand goods -Increasing demand for rare/precious recyclable resources Y.Hotta, WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 6
2-1 Further outflow of recyclable resources Outflow of Japan s recyclable materials is basically a regional issue based on structural change in East Asian Economy. More than 90% of the export of scrap plastic and scrap copper is to China and Hong Kong. Export of Scrap Copper from Japan 45 40 35 Ten thousan nd tons 30 25 20 15 10 5 Others China Taiwan Viet Nam Korea 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Note: For Scrap Copper, the chart is based on HS Code (7404). Source: Calculated from Trade Statistics of Japan ( Y.Hotta, http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/index.htm) WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 7
Mixed low quality material which can not be recycled in economically feasible manner tend to be shipped to developing counties. Around 33.7% (7.7171 million units) of total estimated discharge (22.87 million units) of used four-types of home appliances from house and business facilities are shipped outside of Japan either as reuse purpose (around 26.0% of total estimated discharge) or for resource recovery y( (around 7.7% of total estimated discharge). Coated wire from home appliances Plastics from home appliances Used Products 4home appliances 4 home appliances Coated wire Waste Plastics Unmixed Olefin-type Mixed Urethane-type Resource recovery process Nuggets business Wire stripping business Copper Plastics Mixture of plastics and copper Scrap dealers Plastic re ecycling comp ress Crush and Processi ing into RP PF as blat f urnace redu cer Proces ssing Mixed with constru uction mater rials Freo on Recove ery of Output of recyclable resources Smelter/ Refinery Recycler Export Resin material Export RDF Blast furnace Construction material Y.Hotta, WMR Source; Terazono IGES http://www.iges.or.jp et. al.(2004) P.53-54. November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 8
2-2 Further expansion of foreign market of secondhand goods For reuse purpose, 5.94 million units; around 26.0% of total estimated discharge has been shipped outside of Japan since the introduction of home appliance recycling law. Through further economic integration, trade of second hand goods in addition to new products will be increased. This can facilitate disguised trade without regional policy response to control trade of secondhand goods. Y.Hotta, WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 9
2-3 Increasing demand for rare/precious recyclable resources In the long trend, Japan s manufacturing industry, especially material industry, has been decreased in number of businesses, employees, annual shipments, and total value added. Changes in annual ratio of increase/decrease in number of businesses/ employees/ total shipments/ and total value added price in Japan s industrial sector 10 Annual Ra atio(%) of Chang ge (%) from Las st Year 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 1985 1988 1990 1993 1995 1998 2000 2003-6 Number of businesses Nubmer of employees Total shipments of products Vale added price Source; METI (2006), Industrial Sector of Japan 2006 Y.Hotta, WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 10
2-3 Increasing demand for rare/precious recyclable resources In contrast, production of materials industry in developing Asia has been increasing in recent years. (Production amount, 0.1 billion ton) 5 4 (Graph) Production of Crude Steel 3 Japan 2 China 1 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2010 (Production amount, 10 thousand ton) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 (Graph) Production of Aluminum 2005 2006 2010 Note; Production in 2010 of China is based on an estimate by Takeda (2006). See; Katsutoshi Takeda (2006), Risk Management in Chinese Business, Mitsubishi Corp www.gscc-asianbusiness.jp/workshop/2006/asi_15_03.pdf siness 03 pdf For crude steel production and aluminum production in China, the figures are based on JOGMEC(Japan Oil, Gas and Metals Corporation) s database. http://www.jogmec.go.jp/mric_web/kogyojoho/2003-05/2003-05-01.pdf Japan China Y.Hotta, WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 11
2-3 Increasing demand for rare/precious recyclable resources Longer trends shows decreasing demands of comparatively low quality materials such as recyclable resources in Japan. Ironically, this hollowing out of materials industry was the major incentive for Kawasaki and Kita-kyushu to start Eco-towns project of developing recycling/environmental industry by utilizing the existing infrastructure of environmental management and legacy of environmental technology of heavy industry. Y.Hotta, WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 12
2-3 Increasing demand for rare/precious recyclable resources New business for materials industry( urban mining, eco-facturing ) g) Higher rate of precious material content in used electronic and electric goods than ore. Cost recovery by providing waste processing/treatment services for toxic substances. If high-tech manufacturing industry remains in Japan, the domestic needs for rare metals continue to exist.(urban mining) i 4 800 3.5 700 3 600 Trillion Yen 2.5 2 1.5 500 400 300,000 People 1, 1 200 0.5 100 0 2000 2010 2020 0 Size of Market for Waste Management Services Size of Market for Resource Efficiency-related Business Employment in Waste Management Services Employment in Resource Efficiency-related Business Note; Waste Management Services include; Source; estimate by MOEJ in 2003. The date is sited from MOEJ website. See http://www.env.go.jp/press/file_view.php?serial=4625&hou_id=4132 Y.Hotta, WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp November 5-7 2008, Beijing, China 13
Strategic Policy Option for Sound Material Cycle Society in Asia 3-1. Example of Analysis of Impact of Prospective Regional Economic Integration (2001-2020): Demand of metal materials (import and domestic) Electronics sector's demand for imports Electronics sector's demand for domestic (percentage change 2001-2020) product (percentage change 2001-2020) 500.0 800.0 percenta age change 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 Percent tage change 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.00 300.0 200.0 100.00 100.00 50.0 0.0 0.0 China Japan Korea Indonesia Thailand Viet Nam -100.0 China Japan Korea Indonesia Thailand Viet Nam Metals nec BL Metals nec MEI Metals nec DEI Metals nec BL Metals nec MEI Metals nec DEI -Huge increase in electronics industry's demand and trade of metals (also consumption of electronic goods) => - Huge increase in potentially hazardous e-waste WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp OECD-UNEP Conference on Resource Efficiency, 23-25 April 2008, Paris 14
Strategic Policy Option for Sound Material Cycle Society in Asia 3-2. Analysis of Impact of Regional Economic Integration (2001-2020) 1. The above result is to get some indirect suggestions on how economic integration drives increasing demands in potentially hazardous recyclables. 2. It assumes that metal demands in electronic sectors may drive more trade in mixed and potentially risky materials including non-ferrous/rare metals such as e-waste. 3. Metal needs for electronics will increase much higher than needs for construction sector. 4. Thus, the result can conclude demand for imports of potentially hazardous recyclables which h includes metals will be significantly ifi increased in developing Asia. 5. However, domestic consumption of materials continues to increase. Thus, trade measure may not be enough for proper management of used products with hazardous substances. 6. Modeling analysis does not directly reflect resource availability and trade in recyclables. Thus, reflecting these aspects would be a potential future task. WMR IGES http://www.iges.or.jp OECD-UNEP Conference on Resource Efficiency, 23-25 April 2008, Paris 15
4-1 Four Strategic Options for Sound Material Cycle Society in Asia Strategic option Characteristics Pros Cons A. Status-quo No significant effort since 2005. Waste trade is regulated, but not well enforced No regional coordination for capacity and infrastructure building Requires no additional effort Environmental problems from improper management, etc. Effectiveness of domestic policy Political pressure from non-oecd to OECD countries Incentive for illegal trade Outflow of materials from OECD countries B. Basel ban Regional ban of export of Illegal trade Difficult to enforce amendment hazardous waste for Political pressure from recycling purpose from non-oecd to OECD OECD to non-oecd countries countries Outflow of materials from OECD countries Efficient use of resources No regulation for south-south trade Obstacle to companies efforts Consumption of virgin materials Incentive for technology transfer Resource prices C. Free trade of Reduction of trade barrier Optimization of material Environmental problems waste and Market forces determines supply Difficult to enforce regulations recyclables environmental impacts Reduction of trade barrier Political pressure from recycling and waste Vulnerability of domestic recycling trade mechanism to price change D. Regional recycling mechanism Stronger management of trade in recyclables by introducing incentive mechanism Promotion of sound and efficient trade under Basel framework National capacity Technology transfer CD of recyclers Improper recycling Builds on existing policy framework Transaction cost without central authority in the region Needs for cost sharing mechanism Effectiveness without 16 enforcement?
4-2 Lessons from Japan s experience Policy Lessons Eco-town (subsidized development of recycling industries) EPR-based obligatory recycling scheme Needs constant, stable and large supply of recyclables. Ecotowns constructed near large cities tend to be more successful. Needs materials industry as well as manufacturing industry. Successful in developing nation-wide role sharing for recycling as well as technical and technological l capacity Back-up from product-specific recycling legislation is necessary. Location and transportation are very important for cost effectiveness. To stabilize periodic supply distortions, networking of these facilities can be one option. Does not directly contribute to prevention of pollution Needs to identify producer and importers. Needs many supporting mechanisms Cost effective for increasing recycling capacity Trade of secondary materials as loophole Some kind of regional cooperation, other than EPR-based recycling policy, are necessary to prevent loopholes. EPR from cost sharing to information sharing Certification scheme for good recyclers and traders Need to identify who pays cost Different type of certifications are possible: formal/obligatory registration, quasi-formal and voluntary. Burden may be higher for small recyclers; easier for larger ones Major cost may be transaction costs Needs information sharing mechanism
5. Regional recycling mechanism as a strategic option Institutional development Infrastructure development Information and knowledge development Overall regional Regional Recycling Mechanism policy option Regional Policy International burden sharing for difficult to manage materials International financial support for domestic infrastructure/ information development Networking of ecotowns/eco-industrial park through recycling port Information sharing between upstream and downstream on valuables and hazardous substances in the products Certification for good recyclers/traders National Policy EPR-based obligatory recycling mechanism Promote development of domestic recycling capacity through ecotowns/eco industrial parks policy Statistical information Development of inventory MFA Both regional and national policies are necessary, in Asia 18