A different way to look at the carbon emission in China 刘竹 Zhu Liu Harvard Kennedy School Sustainability Science Program and Energy Technology Innovation Policy Feb 3 rd 2014
Summary 1. Background of China s carbon emissions 2. China s current emission mitigation policy 3. A new way to look at China s carbon emission from spatial and sectoral perspectives 4. Policy implications
1. Background China: World largest developing country with 1.4billion population No.1 primary energy consumer and carbon emitter Half of world steel, cement, coke and glass production (USGS, 2013; Worldbank,2013)
1. Background China s carbon emission: Fast growth with huge amount Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013
1. Background Domestic energy and resource crisis Carbon dioxide World 2011 China 2020 16.4 billion tonnes 34.7 billion tonnes Nonferrous metal ores Known reserve Total 2011-2020 1.4 billion tonnes 9.6 billion tonnes Ferrous World 2011 metal ores China 2020 3.0 billion tonnes 2.5 billion tonnes Ferrous metal ores Know reserve Total 2011-2020 Known reserve Freshwater Total 2011-2020 19.5 billion tonnes 18.8 billion tonnes 2.3 trillion tonnes 5.9 trillion tonnes Energy World 2011 China 2020 83.5 exajoule 515.5 exajoule Energy Known reserve Total 2011-2020 4.8 zettajoule 0.7 zettajoule Comparisons between China s future environmental pressure and current world status Comparisons between China s future total environmental pressure with its 2011 known reserves Sai Liang, Zhu Liu, et al, Environmental science & technology, 2014, 48 (2), 1103-1113
9,000 1. Background China s carbon emission trajectory 8,000 7,000 6,000 Rural Residential Consumption Urban Residential Consumption Others Energy Consumption 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Comerical Industry Transportation Construction Heating Supply Electricity Total Industry US carbon emission 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Agriculture Unit: Mt CO 2 Zhu Liu, et al. Energy. 2012; 45 (1):1059-68.
1. Background IPAT equation Impact (I)= Population(P)*Affluence (A)*Technology(T) CO2(Impact, I)= Population(P)*GDP per capita(a)*co 2 per unit GDP(T) 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Emission decomposition in 1997-2010 CO 2 emission Popolation growth (P) Welfare improvement (GDP/p) 0-2000 -4000 Unit: million tons of CO 2-6000 Calculated by author Technology (CO2/GDP)
1. Background Energy Intensity - Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP (Btu per Year 2005 U.S. Dollars). United Arab Emirates EIA,2013. Japan India China United States Russia United Kingdom Germany France Brazil Canada 0 20,000 40,000
2. China s current low-carbon strategy China s energy intensity and the energy intensity targets in Five-year plan Ye Qi, et al, Nature Geoscience, 2013, 6, 507-509.
2. China s current low-carbon strategy China planed to reduce the carbon intensity by 45% during 2005-2020, with sub target of 20% in 2005-2010 and 17% in 2010-2014 Energy intensity targets in 2005-2010 Orange: 22% reduction Blue: 20% reduction Green:17% reduction Brown: 15% reduction
2. China s current low-carbon strategy Shutdown: 2005-2010: production capacity of 100 Mt of iron, 55 Mt of steel, 250 Mt of cement and 50 Mt of coal-burning power generation has been closed. 2010-2015(planned): production capacity of 48 Mt of iron, 48 Mt of steel, 370 Mt of cement and 42 Mt of coal-burning power generation Close the small one Build the big one Small fire power plant (less than 50, 000kw) closed in Anhui New power plant in Shandong 11
2. China s current low-carbon strategy 3500 3000 Mt CO 2 Equivalent emission reduction(comparing with BAU) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Total CO 2 reduction of 39 industrialized countries (Annex B countries of the Kyoto Protocol) in 1990-2008: 80 million tones of CO 2 0 1 2 Sai Liang, Zhu Liu et al. Bioresource Technology, 2013, 131, 139-145 12
Challenges No control on total emission increase Unaffordable environmental and health impact No potential for the further improvement of efficiency by current measures Small fire power plant (less than 50, 000kw) closed in Anhui Small fire power plant (less than 50, 000kw) closed in Anhui
per capita emission Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012
Regional CO 2 emissions The columns compares the CO 2 emission intensity across provinces (in 2009 price, unit: ton/10,000 Yuan) in 2009. The 15 map illustrates CO 2 emission per capita (unit: ton/ per cap) among provinces in 2009.
A footprint perspective Carbon footprint: a supply chain perspective Production Products and services Direct Emission Indirect Emission Footprint
3. China s carbon footprint: Methodology Methodology: Carbon footprint calculation by using Input-output model E=FX=Fy+FAy+FA 2 y+fa 3 y+fa 4 y = F (I-A) -1 Y Total emission Direct Emission 3 th tier supply chain 2 th tier supply chain 1 th tier supply chain Total indirect emission Total footprint 17
3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective Carbon footprint by cross-boundary power generation Emission by purchased electricity Beijing Shanghai Unit:1,000,000 tons of CO 2 Z. Liu, et al, Energy, 37, 245-254 (2012) 18
3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective 2009 1997 Cross-boundary emission caused by purchased electricity Thermal Power Agriculture Construction Commercial Industry Rural Residential Consumption Cross Boundary Electricity Other Consumption Transportation Urban Residential Consumption Industry Z. Liu, et al, Energy, 37, 245-254 (2012) 19
3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective K. Feng, et al. PNAS,2013,110(28) 11654-11659 20
Interregional emission flows K. Feng, et al. PNAS,2013,110(28) 11654-11659 21
3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=PgC/1000 Source: Peters et al, Biogeosciences, 9, 3247-3276, 2012 22
3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective International outsourcing air pollutions Jintai Lin, et al, PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1312860111 23
3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective International outsourcing air pollutions Jintai Lin, et al, PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1312860111 24
3. China s carbon footprint: spatial perspective Domestic outsourcing air pollutions Source: research in preparation 25
3. China s carbon footprint: sectoral perspective 1 Agriculture 2 Coal Mining 3 Petroleum Extraction 4 Ferrous Metals Mining 5 Other Metals Mining 6 Food Processing 7 Textile 8 Garments 9 Timber Processing 10 Papermaking 11 Petroleum Process 12 Chemical Industry 13 Nonmetal Production 14 Smelting and Pressing 15 Metal Products 16 Equipment Production 17 Transportation Equipment production 18 Electric Production 19 Telecommunications Production 20 Instruments Production 21 Other Industrial Activities 22 Waste production 23 Electricity Power/Heating Supply 24 Gas-fire Supply 25 Hot Water Supply 26 Construction 27 Transportation Services 28 Commercial Industry 29 Other Service Activities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Direct Energy Use Indirect Energy Use Unit: Million tons of SCE ( standard coal equivalent) Zhu Liu, et al, Energy Policy, 2012; 49(0):751-8. 26
3. China s carbon footprint: sectoral perspective Indirect energy use (supply chain energy use) accounts for 80.6% of China s total energy footprint in 2007 80.60% 19.40% Indirect Energy Use Direct Energy Use Zhu Liu, et al, Energy Policy, 2012; 49(0):751-8. 27
3. China s carbon footprint: sectoral perspective 1 Agriculture 2 Coal Mining 3 Petroleum Extraction 250 4 Ferrous Metals Mining 5 Other Metals Mining 6 Food Processing 7 Textile 200 8 Garments 9 Timber Processing 10 Papermaking 11 Petroleum Process 150 12 Chemical Industry 13 Nonmetal Production 14 Smelting and Pressing 15 Metal Products 16 Equipment Production 100 17 Transportation Equipment production 18 Electric Production 19 Telecommunications Production 20 Instruments Production 50 21 Other Industrial Activities 22 Waste production 23 Electricity Power/Heating Supply 24 Gas-fire Supply 0 25 Hot Water Supply 26 Construction 27 Transportation Services 28 Commercial Industry 29 Other Service Activities Nonmetal products Mt C Metal smelting and pressing Power supply Transportation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Emission embodied in supply chain of Construction sector Zhu Liu, et al, Energy Policy, 2012; 49(0):751-8. 28
3. China s carbon footprint: technology perspective IPAT for the footprint: A new IPAT equation? Final demand structure Emission Production Structure Population Emission/Energy Emission Population GDP/Population Energy/GDP Emission/Energy Emission/GDP Raupach M R et al. PNAS 2007;104:10288-10293 Energy/GDP Minx Jan, et al, Environ. Sci. Technol., 2011, 45 (21), 9144 9153
3. China s carbon footprint: final demand perspective Per capita carbon footprint Richest urban Chinese Poorest rural Chinese Rural population divided by 5 income groups (each for 20% rural population Urban consumption divided by 8 income groups (each account for 12.5% urban population) China World average India Brazil UK Japan Germany USA Source: research in preparation
4. China s low-carbon road 3.2-5.4 C 2.0-3.7 C 1.7-3.2 C 0.9-2.3 C Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
4. China s low-carbon road Source: research in preparation
4. China s low-carbon road BAU scenario Low-carbon scenario Total reduction needs Mitigation Wedges Technology Market Policy Final demand Innovation? Source: research in preparation 33
1. Move away from coal and boost recycling and renewables. 2. Improving the emissions-mitigation indicators 3. Balancing regional energy supply and demand. 4. Enhancing market measures 5. Co-reduction of air pollutants and CO 2 emissions 6. Greening the consumption Zhu Liu, et al, Nature, 2013, 500, 143-145
Thanks! zhu_liu@hks.harvard.edu 35