Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels Dr. Pierre C. Sames, Senior Vice President, Research and Rule Development, GL SE Niels B. Clausen, Senior Manager Low Speed, Engine and System Application, MAN Diesel & Turbo GL Your competitive edge Take the lead through innovation
Contents Introduction motivation to use LNG as ship fuel regulatory development container vessel concepts using LNG LNG as ship fuel for container vessels GL MAN study assumptions fuel price scenario additional investment results Outlook Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 2
Attractions for using LNG as ship fuel 1. 90%-95% reduction of Sulphuroxide emissions required within Emission Control Areas (ECAs) by 2015 required globally by 2020, pending a review at IMO by 2025 2. reduction of Nitrogen-oxide emissions to IMO Tier III levels only for pure gas engines and dualfuel four stroke engines required within Emission Control Areas by 2016 3. 20% to 25% reduction of Carbondioxide emissions Methane slip needs to be avoided during bunkering and usage g/kwh Emission compone nts (100% load) 1000 100 10 1 0,1 so urce: M A N CO2 NOx SOx 6S70ME-C - 23 % - 80 % - 92 % 6S70ME-GI (with EGR) Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 3
Historic records of fuel prices Gas and ship fuel prices (monthly averages) 35 30 LNG Zeebrugge HFO Rotterdam MGO Rotterdam but consider small scale LNG supply costs! USD / mmbtu 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Okt-06 Jul-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Okt-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Okt-08 Jul-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Okt-09 Jul-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Okt-10 Jul-11 Okt-11 Jan-12 Sources: apxendex.com, x-rates.com, bunkerw orld.com, graph by PCS/GL LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas, HFO: heavy fuel oil (IFO 380), MGO: marine gas oil, BTU: British thermal Unit = 1,06 kj Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 4
World LNG estimated April 2012 landed prices Source: US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, www.ferc.gov, 6 March 2012 Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 5
Regulatory development IMO issued interim guidelines in 2010. These are not mandatory for flag states. GL (and also other class societies) have issued their own guidelines. GL guidelines offer additional interpretations. IMO subcommittee BLG currently works on the IGF-code, finalisation before Jan. 2013 planned. The IGF code should be published with the next SOLAS revision in 2014. Harmonisation of the IGC-code with the future IGF-code is required to ensure consistent regulation. ISO TC 67 started on LNG bunkering standard. GL guidelines (VI-3-1) Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 6
Projects exploring LNG as ship fuel for container vessels GL 1200 TEU feeder (2009) IPP 4200 TEU (2011), AiP* by GL DSME 14000 TEU (2011), AiP* by GL Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 7 *) Approval in Principle
LNG as ship fuel for container vessels a new joint study by GL and MAN GL and MAN teamed up in late 2010 to jointly develop a roadmap for container vessel advanced propulsion solutions, with the aim to support decision making. The study compares a standard container vessel with advanced vessels using LNG as ship fuel, scrubber systems and waste heat recovery systems. The standard vessel uses required fuels depending on time and location of its operation. The same TIER III-related measures are assumed for all variants and, therefore, these have no effect on the cost differences between the standard vessel and the variants. Lower earning due to space for LNG tanks, scrubbers and WHR is accounted for. Speed (knots) ME power (kw) Roundtrip (nm) ECA share 2.500 TEU 20 14.500 5.300 65,1% 4.600 TEU 21 25.000 13.300 11,0% 8.500 TEU 23 47.500 23.000 6,3% 14.000 TEU 23 53.500 23.000 6,3% 18.000 TEU 23 65.000 23.000 6,3% Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 8
Fuel price scenario delivered to the ship Fuel price scenario 50 40 HFO 2.7% S MGO 0.1% S LSHF 0.5% S LNG USD/mmBTU 30 20 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: GL-MAN container vessel advanced propulsion roadmap LNG delivery costs of 4 USD/mmBTU have been added to the LNG wholesale price. Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 9
LNG tank volume depends on endurance m3 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 LNG tank volume (for half roundtrip endurance) 18000 TEU, 11500 nm 14000 TEU, 11500 nm 8500 TEU, 11500 nm 4600 TEU,6650 nm 2500 TEU, 2650 nm 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 Total installed engine power (kw) Source: GL-MAN container vessel advanced propulsion roadmap Total installed power comprises main engine and auxiliary engines (incl. reefer loads). Two bunker actions per roundtrip were assumed. Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 10
Estimates for total additional invest vs. total installed power 500 Specific additional costs for LNG installation (half-roundtrip endurance with LNG) 400 USD/kW 300 200 100 0 2500 TEU, 2650 nm 4600 TEU, 6650 nm 8500 TEU, 11500 nm 14000 TEU, 11500 nm 18000 TEU, 11500 nm Source: GL-M AN container vessel advanced propulsion roadmap Type C LNG tank assumed for 2500 TEU vessel, type B LNG tanks for larger vessels Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 11
Results for 2500 TEU vessel (65% ECA operation share) 10 8 LNG Annual cost advantage for 2500 TEU container vessel (compared to a standard vessel using standard fuels) LNG + WHR 6 4 2 musd 0-2 Invest 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-4 -6-8 -10 Source: GL-MAN container vessel advanced propulsion roadmap Annual cost advantage compared to the standard vessel is significant once strict fuel-quality regulations are in place and/or the vessel is sailing mostly within ECAs. Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 12
Results for 14000 TEU vessel (6.3% ECA operation share) Annual cost advantage for 14000 TEU container vessel (compared to a standard vessel using standard fuels) 20 LNG LNG + WHR 10 musd 0-10 Invest 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-20 -30 Source: GL-MAN container vessel advanced propulsion roadmap -40 cost advantages are higher with WHR system for larger vessels Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 13
Payback for LNG technology Payback for LNG system (start in 2015) 72 2500 TEU 4600 TEU 8500 TEU 14000 TEU 18000 TEU 60 Payback (months) 48 36 24 larger ECA shares unlikely for larger vessels 12 LNG @ 13 $/mmbtu 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Share of operation inside ECA Source: GL-M AN container vessel advanced propulsion roadmap payback for smaller vessels is faster due to relatively smaller additional invest Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 14
Payback for LNG technology Payback for LNG system (start in 2015) 84 2500 TEU 4600 TEU 8500 TEU 14000 TEU 18000 TEU 72 Payback (months) 60 48 36 24 12 0 ECA operation share varies for ship size 1000 $/m³ 2000 $/m³ 3000 $/m³ 4000 $/m³ 5000 $/m³ Specific cost for LNG tank system Source: GL-M AN container vessel advanced propulsion roadmap LNG tank prices affect payback time. Higher specific LNG tank price values are assumed for smaller tanks. Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 15
Payback for LNG technology Payback for LNG system (start in 2015) Payback (months) 144 132 120 108 96 84 72 60 48 36 24 12 0 2500 TEU 4600 TEU 8500 TEU 14000 TEU 18000 TEU typical for Asia typical for EU typical for US ECA operation share varies for ship size -6,3 $/mmbtu -4,3 $/mmbtu -2,3 $/mmbtu -0,3 $/mmbtu 1,7 $/mmbtu 3,7 $/mmbtu Fuel price differential (LNG-HFO) Source: GL-M AN container vessel advanced propulsion roadmap LNG prices strongly affect payback time Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 16
Payback (months) for a 2500 TEU vessel LNG price 13 $/mmbtu 15 $/mmbtu 17 $/mmbtu LNG spec. tank price 2000 $/m3 8 18 33 3000 $/m3 11 22 38 4000 $/m3 13 26 43 LNG specific tank price has a lower effect on payback than the price of LNG. Doubling LNG spec. tank price increases payback by 30 to 60%. Increasing LNG price (from 13 to 17 $/mmbtu) increases payback by a factor of 3 to 4. Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 17
Conclusions Using LNG as ship fuel is attractive due to lower air emissions than for standard fuels. A joint GL-MAN study looked into LNG and scrubber solutions for several container vessel sizes operating partly inside ECAs. The study shows that operating share inside ECA, LNG-HFO price difference and LNG tank costs are the dominant parameters to be considered for future LNG-fuelled propulsion solutions. Similar conclusions are valid for for other ship types, eg, tanker. Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 18
The first LNG-fuelled vessel with class GL Costs and benefits of LNG-fuelled container vessels last modified: 2012-08-06, PCS/GL No. 19
Thank you for your kind attention. Pierre.Sames@GL-Group.com