MODELING OF INDIA s NATIONAL POWER GRID ECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM COORDINATED EXPANSIONS 2008-2028 PURDUE LONG-TERM TRADING & CAPACITY EXPANSION MODEL Generation & Transmission 22 Node Model DATA INPUTS & RESULTS Brian H. Bowen Devendra Canchi Energy Center at Discovery Park Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA Em: bhbowen@purdue.edu August 12, 2008 Re: Paper Options for Strengthening India s National Power Grid Using the Purdue Long-Term Least Cost, Generation and Transmission Model Brian H. Bowen, Devendra Canchi, Paul V. Preckel, F.T. Sparrow IEEE Power India Conference, New Delhi, India, October 12-15, 2008
DATA INPUTS 2
Natural Gas Imports (Thousand Tons)
Source: Ranju Sarkar, The Pipeline Row Business World 10 Nov, 2003 http://www.businessworldindia.com/nov1003/indepth03.asp
Source: Central Electricity Authority, Govt. of India
Note: The above grid was derived from Transmission Maps (kv) published by various Regional Power Committees, after making several suitable assumptions 8
2008 Existing Generation Capacity Source: Central Electricity Authority of India (2006), "Appendix A,B &C", General Review 9
2008 EXISTING GENERATING CAPACITY & ELECTRICITY DEMAND AT NODES 10
Sources GDP Projection: Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman, Dreaming with BRICs: the path to 2050 Global Economics Paper No 99, Goldmann Sachs, 1st October 2003. Electricity Demand Projection: Central Electricity Authority, Govt. of India, 16 th Electric Power Survey, 2001. Historic growth 4% Forecast growth 8%
India s Coal Companies Coal Entitlement (2005-06) Sources: Coal India Ltd., Information On Consumer wise Coal Supplies. http://www.coalindia.nic.in/allocation.htm 12
Price of Coal (USD/Ton) Source: Coal India Limited http://www.coalindia.nic.in/allocation.htm Estimated Cost of Coal at the Power Plant Assumption: The Coal used in power plants is assumed to be of calorific value between 3360 and 4200 kilocalories per kilogram Sources: Regulated Prices as of Dec 12, 2007, Coal India Ltd. http://www.coalindia.nic.in/pricing.htm
Cost of Coal at Power Plants Notes: Cost of Coal is estimated based on the distance of the node from coal mines and the current allocation profile (see slide 8 and 9). Source of Map: Location of Subsidiaries, Coal India Ltd. http://www.coalindia.nic.in/about7.htm
Domestic Gas Price Since 1999 Source: CRiSi Research Impact of June 2006 Natural Gas Price Hike, July 2006 Fuel Price Comparisons Source: CRiSi Research Impact of June 2006 Natural Gas Price Hike, July 2006
Source: Central Electricity Authority of India, General Review 2006 Performance Data for Coal Powered Power Plants Source: Central Electricity Authority, Review of Performance of Thermal Power Stations 2005-2006.
Summary of Existing Installed Power Capacity (MW) Source: Central Electricity Authority of India, General Review 2006
Existing & Potential Hydro-Power Sources: Existing Capacity: Central Electricity Authority (2006) General Review Hydro Potential: Central Electricity Authority (2002), "Preliminary Ranking Study of Hydro Electric Schemes Note: The Annual MWh/Year is at 60% Load Factor
Existing Inter-State Transmission Capacity (MW) (Purdue Approximations) Sources: Northern Regional Power Committee, Western Regional Power Committee, Southern Regional Power Committee, Eastern Regional Power Committee, North-Eastern Regional Power Committee
Demonstration Scenarios for the India National Model India s 11 th Expansion Plan Summary, 2007-2013 22
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22 NODE MODEL RESULTS 29
RESULTS BENEFITS OF FREE TRADE Penalty cost of Unmet Demand ($5 Million/MW) is not included. Summary of Generation Expansions, 2008-2028 Total New Transmission Expansion, 2008-2028 (MW) 30
India National Grid LINE LOSSES 31
Results Scenario #1 32
Results Scenario #1 33
Results Scenario #1 34
Results Scenario #2 35
Results Scenario #2 36
Results Scenario #2 37
Results Scenario #3 38
Results Scenario #3 39
Results Scenario #3 40
Results Scenario #4 41
Results Scenario #4 42
Results Scenario #4 43
RESULTS UNMET DEMAND Scenario 1, Unmet Demand 2008-2028 76,804 MW x $5 Million/MW = $ 384 Billion 44
10 Year Regional Model, 2007-2017 Source: Devendra Canchi, ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION IN INDIA OPTIMIZING INFRASTRUCTURE FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH,, Global Partnerships Program Committee Meeting, June 29, 2007 45
UNMET MW 46
Relaxed Government 11 th Plan 5% & 15% Reserve Margins 47
Relaxation of Government 11 th Plan Scenario, 2008-2028 1-NT-WithGovPlan-4%Gr-15%Res 1B-NT-NoGovPlan-4%Gr-15%Res 1C-NT-NoGovPlan-4%Gr-5%Res Total Cost (Million USD) $320,060 M $264,761 M $264,106 M Note: NT=No Trade, Gr=Demand Growth, Res=Reserve Margin 48