Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007)
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1 Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007) By Mr. Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul Assistant Governor - Planning Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) Presented to High Level Forum on Lao-Thai Partnership in Sustainable Hydropower Development 7 September 2007 Shangri-La Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand
2 Contents Introduction Present Status of Thailand Power System Assumptions of PDP 2007 Thailand Power Development Plan Thailand Lao PDR Collaboration Conclusion
3 Introduction
4 What is a Power Development Plan? An optimum plan to indicate new power plants with appropriate sizes and types ก าล งผล ต (MW) at appropriate time to serve the รฟ.ใหม รฟ.ใหม increasing demand in the next รฟ.ใหม years adequately. รฟ.ใหม ก าล งผล ตต ดต ง (ป จจ บ น) 2, MW ก าล งผล ตส ารอง ความต องการไฟฟ า 20XX 20XX 20XX 20XX ป
5 Objectives of Power Development Plans Optimum Plan System Reliability and Quality Environmental Impact
6 Key Inputs for Developing PDP Existing System Information Long Term Power Demand Forecast Fuel Prices Schedules of Power Plant Retirement Candidate Power Plants National Energy Policy Planning Criteria
7 Present Status of Thailand Power System
8 Installed Capacity by Power Plant Types Combined Cycle 13,539.9 MW 47.5 % Hydro 3,764.2 MW 13.2 % Thermal 9,666.6 MW 33.9 % Gas Turbine and Diesel MW 3.4 % EGAT-TNB 300 MW 1.1 % Renewable Energy MW 1.0 % Total Installed Capacity (as of 31 July 2007) Peak Demand (24 April 2007) 28,522.5 MW 22,586.1 MW
9 Installed Capacity by Producers IPPs, SPPs, VSPPs, Lao PDR, and Malaysia 12,727.9 MW 45% EGAT 15,794.6 MW 55 % Total Installed Capacity (as of 31 July 2007) Peak Demand (24 April 2007) 28,522.5 MW 22,586.1 MW
10 Energy Generation by Fuel Type, Jan-Jul Jul 2007 Renewable Resources 1.7% Imported Coal 9.0% Heavy Oil 2.0% Lignite 12.5% Natural Gas 66.0% Hydro 7.2% EGAT-TNB 1.6% Diesel 0.02% Total Energy Generation and the Purchased 85,664 GWh (* preliminary figure)
11 Energy Generation by Producers, Jan-Jul Jul 2007 IPPs,SPPs,VSPPs, Purchase from Neighboring Countries 46,752 GWh 54.6 % EGAT 38,912 GWh 45.4% Total Energy Generation and the Purchased 85,664 GWh (* preliminary figure)
12 Daily Peak Load: March May 2007 MW 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 22,161 MW Increased from March 2006 by 6.83% ,586 MW on 24 April 2007 at 2:30 p.m. Increased from April 2006 by 10.01% 21,064 MW 4 May 2006 at 1:30 p.m. 21,234 MW Increased from May 2006 by 0.81% 20,000 19, ,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 March Reserve Margin 2006 = 24.11% 2007 = 22.91% April Reserve Margin 2006 = 25.28% 2007 = 20.44% May Reserve Margin 2006 = 22.10% 2007 = 31.48% Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Day
13 Transmission Systems (As of April 2007) Total High Voltage Transmission Line Length: 30,098 circuit-km 500 kv 3,433 circuit-km 230 kv 12,795 circuit-km 132 kv 9 circuit-km 115 kv 13,792 circuit-km 69 kv 46 circuit-km Total High Voltage Substation: 205 Substations Transformers: 66,316 MVA 115 & 230 kv Southern Northern Central 230 kv 230 & 500 kv Nam Ngum 115 kv Metropolitan Northeastern 115 & 230 kv EGAT - TNB 115 & 132 kv Theun Hinboun 230 kv Thakek 22 kv Suwannakhet 115 kv Xe Xet 115 kv Huay Ho 230 kv
14 Assumptions of PDP 2007
15 Power Demand Forecast (Prepared by the Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee) Assumptions: Use actual power demand of 2006 as the base year Use estimated GDP growth rate provided by the NESDB for Base case, GDP 0.5% for Low case, and GDP +0.5% for High case Average GDP growth rate of (the 10 th NESDP) is 5.0%. Average GDP growth rate of (the 11 th NESDP) is 5.6%. Average GDP growth rate of (the 12 th NESDP) is 5.6%. NESDB = National Economic and Social Development Board NESDP = National Economic and Social Development Plan
16 Long Term Load Forecast March 2007: Base Case Peak Demand Energy Load Year Increase Increase Factor MW GWh MW % GWh % % Actual ,121 1, ,374 7, ,326 1, ,457 9, ,538 1, ,827 7, , ,948 7, Forecast ,513 1, ,665 8, ,957 1, ,994 8, ,225 1, ,947 8, ,635 1, ,285 9, ,996 1, ,926 8, ,625 1, ,723 10, ,384 1, ,478 11, ,216 1, ,759 12, ,251 2, ,375 13, ,382 2, ,575 14, ,560 2, ,076 14, ,795 2, ,021 14, ,082 2, ,257 15, ,481 2, ,236 15, ,958 2, ,697 16,
17 Fuel Price Type Natural Gas Fuel Oil Diesel Lignite Imported Coal Nuclear Forecasted by PTT PTT PTT EGAT EGAT Ux Consulting Company
18 Power Plant Retirement Schedule Year EGAT Power Plant IPPs/SPPs Total (MW) (MW) (MW) ,102 1,307 3, ,831 1,449 4,280 Total 4,933 2,756 7,689
19 Candidate Power Plant 700 MW Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plant 700 MW Gas-Fired Combined Cycle Power Plant 230 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant 1,000 MW Nuclear Power Plant
20 National Energy Policy Increased power import from neighboring countries during Power Purchase from SPP, VSPP 1,700 MW additional power purchased from SPPs during (to make 4,000 MW in total of the purchased from SPPs) Fuel Diversification (Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Imported Hydro Power)
21 Possible Power Import from Neighboring Countries Country MW Laos China Myanmar 5,000 3,000 8,200 Total 16,200
22 Planning Criteria System Reliability Minimum Reserve Margin : 15% Maximum LOLP : 24 Hours/Year Efficiency Improvement EGAT Power Plant Enhancement (CHP)
23 Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007)
24 Various Scenarios PDPs were formulated in 3 scenarios for each load forecast. Totally, there are 9 scenarios as followings. Load Forecast : Base Case (B) Plan B1 : Least Cost Plan Plan B2 : Sub-Optimum Plan with Possible Coal-Fired Power Plants Plan B3 : Sub-Optimum Plan with Possible Coal-Fired Power Plants, 10 MTPA LNG Limitation and More Power Import from Neighboring Countries Load Forecast : Low Case (L) Plan L1-3 (Corresponding to Plan B1-3) Load Forecast : High Case (H) Plan H1-3 (Corresponding to Plan B1-3)
25 Ongoing Power Plant Projects ( ) Year Power Plant Projects Additional Capacity (MW) Total EGAT Private 2007 SPPs 20.3 BLCP Power Co., Ltd. # Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. # Total Annual Increase 1,428-1, South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 1 (CHP) 38 SPPs 39 Solar Energy, Wind Energy (RPS) 3 Chana Combined Cycle Power Plant 710 Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. # Ratchburi Power Co., Ltd. # 1-2 2x700 Total Annual Increase 2, , South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 2 (CHP) 74 Small Hydro (RPS) 45.7 SPPs 88 South Bangkok Combined Cycle # Bang Pakong Combined Cycle # Power Purchase from Laos (Nam Theun 2) 920 Total Annual Increase 2,558 1,550 1, Wangnoi Combined Cycle # 1-3 (CHP) 243 North Bangkok Combined Cycle # Small Hydro (RPS) 33 Total Annual Increase
26 Ongoing Transmission System Projects ( ) 2010) Year Transmission System Projects 2007 Upgrading of the 115 kv Central-Southern Regions tie line to 230 kv Project Transmission System Expansion Project - Phase 10 ( ) Transmission System for Chana Combined Cycle Power Plant Project 2008 Transmission System for South Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 3 Transmission System for Bang Pakong Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 5 Transmission System Project for Power Purchased from Nam Theun 2 Hydro Power Plant Transmission System Expansion Projects for the Greater Bangkok Area and Vicinity - Phase 2 ( ) 2009 Transmission System for North Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block kv Transmission System Project for IPPs Power Plants 500 kv Transmission System for Power Purchased from Nam Ngum 2 Hydroelctric Project
27 PDP 2007 (Recommended Plan) Year Reserve New Domestic Capacity Power Increasing Total Peak Margin Gas Coal Nuclear SPP Import Capacity Capacity Demand (%) ,037 27, , ,820 35,857 29, , ,563 37,800 31, , ,561 40,361 33, ,400 1, ,000 42,186 35, Total 5,600 2, ,041 10, , ,690 44,127 37, , ,500 47,119 39, , ,510 49,888 41, , ,230 52,829 44, ,400-2, ,050 55,251 46, , ,270 58,321 48, Total 12, , ,050 21,250 Grand Total 18,200 2,800 4,000 1,700 5,091 31,791
28 PDP 2007 (Alternative Plan) Year Reserve New Domestic Capacity Power Increasing Total Peak Margin Gas Coal Nuclear SPP Import Capacity Capacity Demand (%) ,037 27, , ,820 35,857 29, , ,563 37,800 31, , ,561 40,361 33, ,400 1, ,000 42,186 35, Total 5,600 2, ,041 10, , ,690 44,127 37, , ,900 3,500 47,119 39, , ,910 3,510 49,888 41, ,030 4,230 52,829 44, , ,950 4,050 55,251 46, ,000 1,270 3,270 58,321 48, Total 4, , ,450 21,250 Grand Total 9,800 2,800 4,000 1,700 13,491 31,791
29 GWh 340, , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 80,000 Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Recommended Plan) Imported Power Nuclear Renewable Energy Diesel Heavy Oil Natural Gas Imported Coal Lignite Hydro (Domestic) 6% 69% 6% 75% 8% 75% 8% 73% 8% 70% 8% 69% 8% 71% 8% 72% 8% 9% 5% 73% 69% 9% 9% 65% 60,000 40,000 20, % 10% 6% 6% 8% 9% 8% 8% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11% 10% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 10% 5% Year
30 340, , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 80,000 Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Alternative Plan) Imported Power Nuclear Renewable Energy Diesel Heavy Oil Natural Gas Imported Coal Lignite Hydro (Domestic) 6% 69% 6% 75% 8% 75% 8% 73% 8% 70% 8% 12% 16% 69% 67% 64% 24% 27% 57% 50% 28% 5% 9% 46% 60,000 40,000 20, % 12% 11% 6% 13% 6% 8% 12% 12% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5%
31 Thailand Lao PDR Collaboration
32 Power Purchased from Lao PDR Year Projects Capacity (MW) 1998 Theun Hinboun 214 Commissioned 1999 Huay Ho 126 Commissioned Status 2009 Nam Theun PPA signed, Under construction 2011 Nam Ngum PPA signed, Under construction 2012 Theun Hinboun (Extended) 220 Draft Tariff MOU completed, to be signed within Nam Ngum PPA to be signed within 2007 Nam Theun PPA to be signed within Nam Ngiep Tariff MOU signed on June 13, 2007 Total 3,301 Noted: The Royal Thai Government and the Laos Government have signed the MOU, on 18 December 2006, stating that Thailand will increase the imported capacity from 3,000 MW to 5,000 MW from Laos.
33 Thailand Lao PDR Interconnection Existing Future Projects 500 kv Transmission Line 230 kv Transmission Line 115 kv Transmission Line
34 Conclusion
35 Conclusion : Long Term PDP PDP was formulated based on available current information. Once this information is updated and/or new national policy on energy is applied, PDP is also reformulated. This probably changes the results in the number of future power plants and their fuel requirement. PDP is therefore A Rolling Plan.
36 Thank You...
37 Fuel Price (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Year Marginal 2% Sulfur Diesel Lignite Imported Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Heavy Oil for New Plants (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) Note : (1 3) Data from PTT, 31 January 2007 (at crude price 55 USD/BBL) Exchange Rate : 37 THB/USD : (4) Data from EGAT : (5) FOB forecast from ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics), average transportation cost 15 USD/Ton : (6) Ux Consulting Company, 21 February 2007
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