Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. CCbenefits, Inc. Gap Analysis Regional Overview Regional Demographics, Educational Attainment, and Top Industry & Occupation Analysis Prepared for: Gavilan Community College Region: San Benito County Timeframe: 2007 2012
San Benito County 1 Introduction Contents Introduction...1 Demographics...2 Educational Attainment...3 Industries & Occupations: Introduction...4 Industry Overview...5 Industry Rankings...6 Focus Industry Occupations...7 About and the Data... 11 Region Definition This report uses a customized dataset with demographic, industry, and occupation data for the counties shown above. has aggregated these statistics for this customized region. San Benito County Counties: San Benito, CA (6069) Timeframe Definition Future employment numbers in this report are projected from past trends and controlled to published state and national projections. Data Timeframe: 2007 2012 Report Outline Demographics The first section provides an overview of the region s age demographics, highlighting the regional population s current profile and projected change over the next five years. In addition, the region s demographics are benchmarked against state and national figures. Regional Educational Attainment The second section provides an overview of the educational attainment within the region. Educational attainment is based on the level of education achieved by the population over the age of 25. Industry and Occupation Overview The third section reveals the industries and occupations most critical to the regional economy. Industries are selected based on a combination of standard performance metrics. This section also (1) highlights occupations that are projected to experience the most growth within the critical industry sectors, (2) provides the average education levels necessary to work in these occupations, and (3) indicates the major declining occupations in the region.
San Benito County 2 Demographics The current population of the region is 57,427. Over the next five years the population is projected to increase by roughly 14%. Region 2007 Total 2012 Total % Region 57,427 65,188 7,761 14% State 36,857,069 38,877,863 2,020,794 5% In 2012, 22% of the population is projected to be over the age of 55. Region 2007 Total 2007 55+ % 55+ 2012 Total 2012 55+ % 55+ Region 57,427 10,819 19% 65,188 14,531 22% State 36,857,069 7,718,300 21% 38,877,863 8,984,438 23% Males and females will be almost evenly distributed. Gender 2007 Population 2012 Population % Males 28,971 32,829 3,858 13% Females 28,456 32,358 3,902 14% 57,427 65,188 7,761 14% Accordingly, in five years 78% of the population will be under the age of 55. Age 2012 Population % of Total Population Under 5 years 5,211 8% 5 to 9 years 4,579 7% 10 to 14 years 4,683 7% 15 to 19 years 4,960 8% 20 to 24 years 5,296 8% 25 to 29 years 5,059 8% 30 to 34 years 3,940 6% 35 to 39 years 3,422 5% 40 to 44 years 4,041 6% 45 to 49 years 4,734 7% 50 to 54 years 4,732 7% 50,657 78%
San Benito County 3 Educational Attainment 2007 Educational Attainment 2012 Projected Educational Attainment Education Level 2007 Pop % of Pop State % Pop Nat. % Pop Education Level 2012 Pop % of Pop State % Pop Nat. % Pop Less Than High School Diploma 6,755 20% 19% 15% Less Than High School Diploma 7,740 19% 19% 14% High School Diploma 7,843 23% 19% 29% Some College 9,844 28% 23% 22% Associate s Degree 2,639 8% 7% 6% Bachelor s Degree 5,218 15% 20% 18% High School Diploma 8,960 22% 19% 28% Some College 11,496 28% 22% 22% Associate s Degree 3,073 8% 6% 6% Bachelor s Degree 6,419 16% 21% 18% Graduate Degree and Higher 2,243 6% 11% 10% Graduate Degree and Higher 2,770 7% 12% 11% 34,543 100% 100% 100% 40,459 100% 100% 100% Note: Educational attainment is based on the education level of the population over the age of 25.
San Benito County 4 Industries & Occupations: Introduction Introduction To provide the best estimation of which industries are most critical to the regional economy we have ranked industries at the 2-digit NAICS level by the following metrics: Industry size (in terms of jobs), Growth (jobs and % change), Earnings per worker (EPW), Shift share (or competitive effect), and Location quotient (or regional concentration). For this analysis, we have weighted industry size, change, and competitive effect so the results should reflect area industries that are (1) relatively large, (2) growing, and (3) regionally competitive. After the top industry sectors are selected we rank the top occupations within each industry. To rank the occupations we have simply selected those occupations that are larger, and are projected to growth or decline with some significance over the next five years. In addition, the analysis includes earnings and education level associated with each occupation. As with the previous sections, this section is primarily data-driven, and knowledge of the local situation is usually required to interpret all the data correctly. This section is primarily meant as an overview of the economy that can be used as a point of departure for planning discussions. Metrics Overview Industry performance is a many-faceted concept that cannot be easily reduced to a single metric. Accordingly, uses five major metrics to evaluate industry performance: jobs, earnings, growth, shift share, and location quotient. simply ranks industries by number of jobs. This metric certainly reveals important industries in the regional economy, but it does not tell a complete story. For example, a large industry may be in sharp decline, or may provide mostly low-wage jobs, or may be dependent on more basic export-oriented industries. s ranking of industries by jobs is thus balanced by using the perspectives of other metrics. Growth can highlight regional industries that may be small or mid-sized but show strong performance and have high potential for future growth. Growth ranking is done in terms of number of jobs added. Average yearly earnings per worker (EPW), which in s data includes salary and benefits, indicates the quality of jobs within each industry. Shift share, or regional competitiveness, is a way of balancing the growth figures by isolating growth that can be attributed to regional causes rather than simply to national economic or industry trends. Shift share provides the Competitive Effect, which is based on (1) total regional job growth minus (2) the National Growth Effect (industry growth expected due to performance of national economy as a whole) and (3) Industrial Mix Effect (regional industry growth expected due to national trends in that same industry). Location quotient, or industry concentration, is a way of quantifying how concentrated an industry is in a region. For example, if an industry is responsible for.5% of national jobs but 1.5% of regional jobs, then it has an LQ of 3 in the region. By showing regional specialties, this metric highlights exporting sectors that bring money into the region (and thus form the base for other dependent industries).
San Benito County 5 Industry Overview The table summarizes the broadest industry sectors in the regional and state economies, sorted by total 2007 jobs. Region State NAICS Code Description 2007 2012 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting % 2006 EPW 3,099 3,243 144 5% $27,344 90 Government* 3,027 3,328 301 10% $57,814 State 2007 State 2012 State % State EPW 513,345 531,478 4% $26,135 2,713,578 2,807,351 3% $63,111 44-45 Retail trade 2,808 3,220 412 15% $33,483 2,205,551 2,387,734 8% $34,752 23 Construction* 2,699 3,011 312 12% $44,298 1,325,692 1,367,783 3% $60,422 31-33 Manufacturing* 1,977 2,241 265 13% $54,052 1,554,933 1,563,562 1% $85,420 81 Other services, except public administration 1,647 1,774 128 8% $19,959 1,277,222 1,348,384 6% $25,165 72 Accommodation and food services 1,410 1,500 90 6% $18,124 1,469,796 1,593,462 8% $21,805 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 1,284 1,583 298 23% $35,176 1,106,249 1,297,800 17% $43,213 56 Administrative and waste services 1,113 1,368 256 23% $29,863 1,419,598 1,594,955 12% $31,334 62 Health care and social assistance 1,089 1,362 273 25% $35,988 1,830,028 2,043,662 12% $49,935 48 Transportation and warehousing 956 1,012 57 6% $39,906 678,365 695,330 3% $56,973 54 Professional and technical services 903 877-26 -3% $42,866 1,790,850 1,866,486 4% $72,465 42 Wholesale trade 599 780 182 30% $48,269 810,842 817,029 1% $69,574 52 Finance and insurance 491 547 56 11% $77,910 921,491 997,246 8% $95,211 71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 448 447-0 0% $27,057 567,946 626,191 10% $46,628 55 Management of companies and enterprises 170 235 65 38% $39,263 223,262 229,033 3% $99,412 51 Information 166 177 11 7% $30,588 575,698 605,402 5% $95,459 61 Educational services 164 167 3 2% $18,652 429,599 494,742 15% $31,447 21 Mining 52 40-12 -23% $46,292 36,843 33,607-9% $119,828 22 Utilities 20 13-8 -35% $37,215 58,047 62,922 8% $154,823 24,122 26,927 2,805 12% $38,492 EPW: Total annual industry earnings per worker. * Focus Industry: See occupation details later in the report. 21,508,936 22,964,157 7% $54,345
San Benito County 6 Industry Rankings Focus Industries For this analysis we have selected three top level industries for a more detailed analysis. These were selected based on strong performance in a combination of indicators: regional growth, earnings, number of jobs and regional competitiveness. Government Construction Manufacturing Most Concentrated Industries These industries have the highest 2007 location quotient.* The national average is 1. Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting: 6.17 Construction: 1.76 Real estate and rental and leasing: 1.34 Other services, except public administration: 1.21 Transportation and warehousing: 1.10 Largest Industries (2007) Industries most critical to this region s economy are: Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting: 3,099 jobs Government: 3,027 jobs Retail trade: 2,808 jobs Construction: 2,699 jobs Manufacturing: 1,977 jobs Most Competitive Industries These industries had the highest job growth beyond that expected from national trends.** Manufacturing: 330 jobs Retail trade: 248 jobs Government: 215 jobs Construction: 199 jobs Wholesale trade: 187 jobs Highest Growth, 2007-2012 Industries with largest total change in jobs are: Retail trade: 412 jobs / 15% Construction: 312 jobs / 12% Government: 301 jobs / 10% Real estate and rental and leasing: 298 jobs / 23% Health care and social assistance: 273 jobs / 25% Declining Industries, 2007-2012 Professional and technical services: -26 jobs / -3% Mining: -12 jobs/ -23% Utilities: -8 jobs/ -35% Arts, entertainment, and recreation: -1 jobs/ 0% *See the explanation of location quotient on page 4. **See the explanation of shift share on page 4.
San Benito County 7 Focus Industry Occupations Critical Occupations: Government These are sector s occupations showing largest job change. Regional projections, change, replacement jobs, average hourly earnings and education level are included. Numbers include all jobs in the given occupation, not just in those found within the focus industry (most occupations are found within more than one industry). SOC Code Description Education administrators, 11-9033 postsecondary Business operation specialists, all 13-1199 other 2007 2012 % Replacement % New & Rep. Hourly Earnings Education Level 53 61 8 15% 6 27% $24.48 Deg. + exp. 173 210 37 21% 14 29% $18.13 Bachelor s 25-1099 Postsecondary teachers 149 176 27 18% 16 29% $19.44 PhD 25-2021 Elementary school teachers, except special education 131 147 16 12% 14 23% $13.79 Bachelor s 25-9041 Teacher assistants 140 155 15 11% 13 20% $7.49 ST OJT 29-1111 Registered nurses 159 195 36 23% 16 32% $23.46 Associate s 33-3051 Police and sheriff s patrol officers 95 106 11 12% 12 24% $18.46 LT OJT 37-2011 43-6011 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 284 340 56 20% 25 29% $7.49 ST OJT 328 364 36 11% 30 20% $13.23 MT OJT 43-9061 Office clerks, general 521 570 49 9% 56 20% $8.41 ST OJT 2,034 2,324 289 14% 202 24% $13.02 Education Abbreviations: ST OJT: Short-term on-the-job training MT OJT: Moderate-term on-the-job training LT OJT: Long-term on-the-job training Exp. in field: Work experience in a related field PS award: Postsecondary vocational award Deg. + exp.: Degree plus work experience Prof.: First professional degree
San Benito County 8 Critical Occupations: Construction These are sector s occupations showing largest job change. Regional projections, change, replacement jobs, average hourly earnings and education level are included. Numbers include all jobs in the given occupation, not just in those found within the focus industry (most occupations are found within more than one industry). SOC Code Description 2007 2012 % Replacement % New & Rep. Hourly Earnings Education Level 47-2111 Electricians 227 274 47 21% 21 30% $17.68 LT OJT 47-2141 Painters, construction and maintenance 290 328 38 13% 21 20% $10.38 MT OJT 47-2031 Carpenters 290 321 31 11% 23 19% $14.65 LT OJT First-line supervisors/managers of 47-1011 construction trades and extraction workers Plumbers, pipefitters, and 47-2152 steamfitters 217 247 30 14% 18 22% $21.31 Exp. in field 151 178 27 18% 16 29% $15.61 LT OJT 11-9021 Construction managers 130 152 22 17% 11 25% $22.48 Bachelor s 49-9021 Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers 80 96 16 20% 5 26% $15.11 LT OJT 47-2061 Construction laborers 237 252 15 6% 15 13% $8.95 MT OJT 47-2211 Sheet metal workers 77 90 13 17% 9 28% $12.86 LT OJT 13-1051 Cost estimators 52 60 8 15% 6 26% $17.69 Exp. in field 1,751 1,998 248 14% 144 22% $15.06 Education Abbreviations: ST OJT: Short-term on-the-job training MT OJT: Moderate-term on-the-job training LT OJT: Long-term on-the-job training Exp. in field: Work experience in a related field PS award: Postsecondary vocational award Deg. + exp.: Degree plus work experience Prof.: First professional degree
San Benito County 9 Critical Occupations: Manufacturing These are sector s occupations showing largest job change. Regional projections, change, replacement jobs, average hourly earnings and education level are included. Numbers include all jobs in the given occupation, not just in those found within the focus industry (most occupations are found within more than one industry). SOC Code Description 2007 2012 % Replacement % New & Rep. Hourly Earnings Education Level 11-1021 General and operations managers 332 374 42 13% 30 22% $31.68 Deg. + exp. 17-2112 Industrial engineers 26 35 9 35% 3 45% $24.53 Bachelor s 49-9042 51-1011 Maintenance and repair workers, general First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers 235 278 43 18% 21 27% $10.98 MT OJT 87 100 13 15% 9 25% $16.79 Exp. in field 51-2092 Team assemblers 85 103 18 21% 10 33% $7.62 MT OJT 51-4041 Machinists 27 34 7 26% 3 37% $12.11 LT OJT 51-7011 51-9061 Cabinetmakers and bench carpenters Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers 47 55 8 17% 6 29% $7.46 LT OJT 58 65 7 12% 7 24% $9.87 MT OJT 51-9198 Helpers--Production workers 61 69 8 13% 8 26% $7.51 ST OJT 53-7062 Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 302 332 30 10% 47 26% $7.50 ST OJT 1,260 1,446 187 15% 144 26% $15.77 Education Abbreviations: ST OJT: Short-term on-the-job training MT OJT: Moderate-term on-the-job training LT OJT: Long-term on-the-job training Exp. in field: Work experience in a related field PS award: Postsecondary vocational award Deg. + exp.: Degree plus work experience Prof.: First professional degree
San Benito County 10 Declining Occupations These regional occupations show the largest decline in jobs. (Occupations with less than 10 total jobs are excluded.) SOC Code Description 2007 2012 % Replacement % New & Rep. Hourly Earnings Education Level 11-9012 Farmers and ranchers 304 280-24 -8% 32 3% $15.05 LT OJT 11-9011 Farm, ranch, and other agricultural managers 117 110-7 -6% 10 3% $18.60 Deg. + exp. 47-2081 Drywall and ceiling tile installers 128 121-7 -5% 14 6% $13.83 MT OJT 39-2011 Animal trainers 60 53-7 -12% 7-1% $7.47 MT OJT 55-9999 Military Occupations 88 82-6 -7% 11 6% $9.07 N/A 43-3071 Tellers 27 22-5 -19% 7 8% $7.40 ST OJT 29-1051 Pharmacists 32 27-5 -16% 3-5% $28.53 Prof. deg. 29-2052 Pharmacy technicians 24 19-5 -21% 2-14% $10.51 MT OJT 23-1011 Lawyers 42 38-4 -10% 3-3% $40.99 Prof. deg. 43-4071 File clerks 22 20-2 -9% 7 24% $7.61 ST OJT 845 773-72 -9% 96 3% $15.44 Education Abbreviations: ST OJT: Short-term on-the-job training MT OJT: Moderate-term on-the-job training LT OJT: Long-term on-the-job training Exp. in field: Work experience in a related field PS award: Postsecondary vocational award Deg. + exp.: Degree plus work experience Prof.: First professional degree
San Benito County 11 About and the Data About provides integrated data, web-based tools, and consulting services to analyze regional economies intelligently in terms of economic base, industry and employment trends, economic impact simulations, industry clusters, regional competitiveness, human capital, labor market supply and demand, and demographics. s integrated database is based on 70 government sources, making it much more comprehensive, accurate, and detailed than any single source available. In addition, s webbased suite of analysis tools makes the information easy to access and use. If you would like to learn more about or its products and services, please visit us online at www.economicmodeling.com, or call 1-866-999-3674. Data As a data provider, we gather and harmonize data from 70 state and federal sources, creating in-house a comprehensive and current database that is unsurpassed for its breadth and detail. Industry, workforce, and demographic data are available from state and county levels all the way down to individual ZIP codes, and users can build custom regions from county and ZIP code areas. In addition, by combining dozens of data sources, we can fill gaps in individual sources (such as suppressions and missing proprietors) yielding a composite database that exploits the strengths of each source. Finally, our database is updated biannually, so our subscribers have access to the most complete and up-to-date information on the market. s StrategicAdvantage (SA) The report was created primarily using the Economic Forecaster, one of four modules within SA. Economic Forecaster is a powerful, labor market projection tool that will allow workforce and economic developers to create detailed industry, occupation and demographic analyses that can be used to better analyze the regional economy and workforce. s StrategicAdvantage web-based analysis suite capitalizes on the company s premium database to produce accessible analysis and reports. The suite includes four main modules Economic Forecaster, Economic Impact, Career Pathways and Educational Analyst which each include several analysis tools that allow users to create customizable tables, graphs, and maps with the click of a button. With s StrategicAdvantage, workforce professionals and economic developers can: Perform instant analyses with an intuitive web-based interface, Understand current and future trends in a regional economy (industries, occupations, demographics) with 10-year projections, Create presentation-ready graphs, tables and maps, Draw the right businesses to a region and maximize return on investment, Run impact scenarios of businesses entering, leaving, growing, or shrinking in a region, Know the skills embedded in the workforce and required by specific occupations, Minimize unemployment and transition workers into high-demand, high-wage occupations, and Identify the businesses and workers a region needs to recruit and retain in order to make its economy thrive.
San Benito County 12 Selected Data Sources CD Light, LLC, d.b.a. ZipInfo.com. ZIPList5 Plus Zip Code Data.. ZipInfo.com. Database on-line. Available from http://www.zipinfo.com; Internet; accessed May 2005. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics.. Health, United States, 2004. U.S. Census Bureau.. County Business Patterns (CBP) Employment Reports.. Current State Demographic data.. Current County Demographic data.. Decennial Census Reports.. National Population Report.. Nonemployer Statistics Reports.. Projected State Demographic data.. State Population Total Reports. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.. Regional Economic Information Systems (REIS). County Demographic data.. Regional Economic Information Systems (REIS). Employment & Earnings Reports.. State Personal Income Employment and Earnings Reports. U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics.. Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Institutional Characteristics Survey. Database online. Available from http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/ic.asp; Internet; accessed April 2005.. Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Faculty Salaries Data. Database on-line. Available from http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/facultysalaries.asp; Internet; accessed April 2005.. Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Fall Staff Data. Database on-line. Available from http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/fallstaff.asp; Internet; accessed April 2005.. Occupation to CIP (Classification of Instructional Programs).. Public Elementary/Secondary School Universe Survey Data. Database on-line. Available from http:// nces.ed.gov/ccd/pubschuniv.asp; Internet; accessed April 2005. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.. Current Employment Statistics.. Current Year National Occupation Matrix.. National Current Industry data.. National Projected Industry data. National Replacement data.. Projected National Occupation Matrix.. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. (also known as ES-202 Covered Employment & Wages Data.) In addition to these national sources, uses employment data from nearly all 50 individual states. If you have any questions about s data and methodologies, please contact us at 1-866-999-2674 or at info@economicmodeling.com.
About This Report This Gap Analysis Regional Overview, created by /CCbenefits and developed in partnership with New York based Workforce Strategy Center (www.workforcestrategy.org), is designed to provide a top-level view of regional demographics, educational attainment, top-ranking industries, and associated occupations. The goal of this report is to assist regional planners in their understanding of the region s population, economy, and labor market. The report is primarily data-driven, with some basic interpretation included to help focus the attention of local stakeholders and policy makers. Knowledge of the local situation may be required to interpret all the data correctly. Educational Attainment Growth Earnings Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. www.economicmodeling.com 1-866-999-3674 1187 Alturas Dr. Moscow, ID 83843