Effect of changing anthropogenic and climate conditions on BOD loading and in-stream water quality in Europe Anja Voß, Ilona Bärlund, Manuel Punzet, Ellen Kynast, and Frank Voß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel Ce n t e r f or En v i r o n m en t al Richard Williams, NERC-CEH Olli Malve, SYKE GWSP - Conference of the Global Catchment Initiative (GCI) Bonn, 6. - 8. December 2010
Main issues for global water quality modelling with WorldQual Build a simple water quality model on global scale to assess future loading and indicate the subsequent state of aquatic ecosystems Develop long-term water quality scenarios with continental coverage (Europe) Develop a tool for on-going assessment of water quality Substances: BOD, TDS, TN, TP, total Coliforms, water temperature Why BOD?: indicator for the overall health of aquatic ecosystems, important for global research
Pollution loads Point sources Diffuse sources Scattered settlements Agriculture Geogenic background Urban surface runoff Domestic (sewage) Manufacturing (waste water)
BOD grid cell input for Europe 2005
BOD in-stream concentrations Europe July 2005
Key drivers of changes in in-stream concentration Example 1 Urban runoff and diffuse loadings Temperature Precipitation Climate Water availability Flow velocity Decay rates In-stream concentration
IPCC-SRES scenario family Global A1 B1 Self-interest/Reactive Solidarity/Pro-active IPCM4-A2 MIMR-A2 A2 B2 Regional
Effect of climate change on BOD loadings - 2050
Effect of climate change on in-stream concentration Changes in water quality classes in July (2000s vs. 2050s) (without socio-economic changes) IPCM4-A2
Key drivers of changes in in-stream concentration Example 2 Temperature Precipitation Climate Sectoral loadings Water availability Flow velocity Decay rates Socio-Economy Water use Population Treatment level Landuse Livestock In-stream concentration
Scenario overview A2
Effect of climate and socio-economic change on BOD loadings - 2050 Western Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Eastern Europe (central) Eastern Europe (eastern) Western Asia
Effect of climate and socio-economic change on instream concentration Changes in water quality classes in July (2000s vs. 2050s) Economy First IPCM4-A2
Effect of climate and socio-economic change on instream concentration Changes in water quality classes in July (2000s vs. 2050s) Sustainability Eventually IPCM4-A2
Conclusions Water quality is a great challenge for researchers. It is equally an issue for households, agriculture, and industrial development. With the implementation of a simple water quality model we are able to reproduce loadings to and concentrations within the river network. Offers a possibility to calculate scenarios on continental scale Climate change on its own will have a smaller effect on water quality Climate and socio-economic change together will have a bigger effect on water quality due to the interaction of climate water use water availability Socio-economic changes can overlay the effect of climate change
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