THE ROLE OF SOLAR ENERGY IN OUR FUTURE RENEWABLES-BASED ENERGY SYSTEM Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and University of Freiburg, Germany Fraunhofer ISE/ Foto: Guido Kirsch Intersolar India & 4th Indo-German Energy Symposium: Scaling up Renewable Energy and Facilitating Finance Mumbay, India, November 18, 2015
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Research for the Transformation of our Energy System largest European Solar Energy Research Institute About 1200 members of staff (incl. students) 18 % basic financing 82 % contract research, 24 % industry, 58 % public 86.1 M budget (2014, incl. investments) 2
Cornerstones for the Transformation of our Energy System to efficient use of finally 100% renewable energy Energy efficiency: buildings, production, transport Massive increase in renewable energies: photovoltaics, solar and geo thermal, wind, hydro, biomass... Fast development of the electric grid: transmission and distribution grid, bidirectional Small and large scale energy storage systems: electricity, hydrogen, methane, methanol, biogas, solar heat, hydro... Sustainable mobility as integral part of the energy system: electric mobility with batteries and hydrogen/fuel cells 3
World EnergyRessources renewable finite World Energy Ressources (TWyear) SOLAR 23,000 per year 60-120 per year Waves 0.2-2 per year 3-11 per year OTEC WIND Natural Gas 215 Total 240 Total 2010 World energy use: 16 TWy per year 2 6 per year Biomass Petroleum 2050: 28 TW TIDES 0.3 per year 3 4 per year HYDRO 0.3 2 per year Geothermal 90-300 Total Uranium R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve 4 COAL
renewable finite World Energy Ressources (TWyear) SOLAR 23,000 per year 60-120 per year Waves 0.2-2 per year 3-11 per year OTEC WIND Natural Gas 330 Total 310 Total 2010 World energy use 16 TWy per year 2 6 per year Biomass Petroleum 2050: 28 TW TIDES 0.3 per year 3 4 per year HYDRO 0.3 2 per year Geothermal 90-300 Total Uranium R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve 5 COAL
Price Experience Curve of Solar Energy (c-si Photovoltaics) - Driven by Innovation & Market Introduction! Learning Rate: Preis über kumulierter Kapazität in Each GWtime the cumulative c-si PV production doubled, the price went down by 20 % - by a factor of 10 in 25 years! Solar Electricity Today: 8-10 ct/kwh in Germany, half in sun-rich countries! Source: Navigant Consulting; EUPD PV module prices (since 2006), Graph: ISE 2014 6
PV Electricity Cost (LCOE) till 2050 in different regions PV will generate lowest-cost electricity @ 2-4ct/kWh! Source: ISE PV cost study 2014 7
Electricity supply from renewable energy sources Development in Germany 1990-2013 Year 2013 EEG Januar 2012 EEG August 2014 Total* 25.4% 152.6 PV 5.0% 30.0 36.3 GW EEG Januar 2009 Bio 8.0% 47.9 8.1 GW Novelle BauGB November 1997 StromEinspG: Januar 1991 März 2000 EEG April 2000 EEG August 2004 Wind-onsh 8.7% 52.4 33.8 GW Wind-offsh 0.1% 0.9 0.9 GW Hydro 3.5% 21.2 5.6 GW 8 * gross electricity demand
Source: Solarbuzz 2014 9
Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolio c-si PV is not a Commodity, but a High-Tech Product! material quality diffusion length base conductivity device quality passivation of surfaces low series resistance light confinement material quality cell structures PERC: Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell MWT: Metal Wrap Through IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back Contact Back Junction HJT: Hetero Junction Technology Industry Standard 14% PERC 15% BC- HJT IBC-BJ HJT MWT- PERC 16% module efficiency 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% device quality Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC 2009 10
Source: Sarasin, Solar Study, Nov 2010 Growth rate World Market Outlook: Experts are Optimistic Example Sarasin Bank, November 2010 market forecast (2010): 30 GW p in 2014, 110 GW p in 2020 annual growth rate: in the range of 20 % and 30 % 2014: ca. 40 GW p, 1/3 above forecast! Total Newly new installed installations (right) (right scale) Annual growth rate (left(left) scale) 11
PV Market Growth (IEA 2014) Rapid introduction of PV globally is fueled by availability of cost-competitive, distributed energy In 2050 between 4.000 and 30.000 GW p PV will be installed! By 2015, less than 200 GW p have been installed! We are just at the beginning of the global growth curve! Source: IEA 2014 12
Module Capacity (GW) Excess Capacity (GW) Global PV Production Capacity and Installations From 2016/17: Global PV-installation corresponds to production capacity! Production Capacity Installations Excess Capacity Outlook for the development of supply and demand in the global PV market. Source: Lux Research Inc., Grafik: PSE AG 13
Comprehensive model of Germany s energy system Mimimize total annual cost (investments, capital, operation, maintenance, ) Electricity generation, storage and end-use Fuels (including biomass and synthetic fuels from RE) REMod-D Renewable Energy Model Deutschland Techno-economic optimization based on system simulation (hourly time scale) Mobility (batteryelectric, hydrogen, conv. fuel mix) Heat (buildings, incl. storage and heating networks) Processes in industry and tertiary sector 14 Henning, H-M., Palzer, A.: Was kostet die Energiewende?, Study Fraunhofer ISE, November 2015
Sun Solar thermal GW 58 PV 125 128 GW 85 5 Methanation 20 GW 55 0 Battery stor. 0 0 GWh Total quantity heating 0 Conversion 17 Losses 108 264 Final energy 280 Mobility Water Wind Environmental heat Deep geothermal 121 3 Hydro power 21 5 GW Onshore wind 419 120 GW Offshore wind 176 32 GW 135 0 0 Electrolysis 108 15 GW 0 H2-storage 0 0 GW 0 Bio-2-H2 0 GW Bio-2-CH4 0 0 GW 19 Battery veh. 18 36 GWh 6 Pumped stor. 5 10 GWh 0 H2-2-Fuel 0 GW 0 0 71% 29% Renewables Fossil 0 Conversion 0 Losses 108 Final energy 108 100% 0% Total quantity hydrogen Renewables Fossil Total quantity gas 128 Conversion 0 Losses 502 Final energy 630 21 237 20 Electricity (baseload) 375 15 Renewable energy sources Renewable raw materials Primary fossil energy carrier 19 Bio-2-Liquid 9 1 GW Consumption sector Hydrogen Heat Gas 23% 77% Raw biomass Liquid fuels Electricity Renewables Fossil 335 Raw biomass Total quantity raw 141 Biodiesel 85 biomass 103 15 GW Biogas plant 244 Conversion 0 Losses 103 103 Processing 91 2 GT 1 72 Final energy 49 10 GW 17 GW 335 383 Biogas 103 0 Bio-2-el. 0 CCGT 0 100% Renewables 0% Fossil 52 storage 0 GW 0 GW 0 Total quantity liquid 11 77 fuels 485 0 Reforming 0 District heat Natural gas GW 50 GW 0 Conversion 126 CHP HP 39 10 66 0 Losses 237 Final energy 237 Petroleum 144 39% Renewables 0 Oil PP 0 61% Fossil 0 GW 215 Electricity 0 Total quantity Import 98 electricity 37 Lignite PP 13 Lignite REMod-D Energy 3 GW 271 Conversion 20 88 Losses 501 Final energy 0 68 Hard coal PP 27 860 Hard coal system model 7 GW 106 Electricity 0 87% Renewables 46 Surplus Export 13% Fossil Uranium 0 Nuclear PP 0 0 GW Energy conversion Storage 375 Industry (fuel based process) 445 Heating (space heating and hot water) 384 CO2 emissions 1990 (reference year) 990 Mio t CO 2 CO2 emissions 196 Mio t CO 2 CO2 reduktion related to 1990: 80% 11
Scenario results of hourly modeling 2014-2050 Wind and solar PV installed in 2050 #1-80 % CO 2, low rate building energy retrofit, electric vehicles dominant, coal until 2050 #2-80 % CO 2, low rate building coal until 2050 #3-80 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2050 #4-80 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 #5-85 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 #6-90 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 16
Scenario results Cumulative total cost No penalty on CO 2 emissions Stable fossil fuel prices #1-80 % CO 2, low rate building energy retrofit, electric vehicles dominant, coal until 2050 #2-80 % CO 2, low rate building coal until 2050 #3-80 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2050 #4-80 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 #5-85 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 #6-90 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 Ref today s system; no change 17
Scenario results Cumulative total cost No penalty on CO 2 emissions Stable fossil fuel prices Cumulative cost of scenarios # 4 und # 5 approx. 1100 bn higher than reference for the total time 2014 2050 (about 0.8 % of German GDP) #4-80 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 #5-85 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 Ref today s system; no change 18
Scenario results Cumulative total cost Rising penalty cost for CO 2 emissions up to 100 per ton in 2030; then stable Price increase for fossil fuels 2 % p.a. #1-80 % CO 2, low rate building energy retrofit, electric vehicles dominant, coal until 2050 #2-80 % CO 2, low rate building coal until 2050 #3-80 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2050 #4-80 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 #5-85 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 #6-90 % CO 2, high rate building coal until 2040 Ref today s system; no change 19
Grid stability with growing amounts of fluctuating RE: Grid in Germany today more stable than in 2006! 20
The Role of Solar Energy in Our Future Renewables-Based Energy System PV will be one of the key pillars, together with wind energy, of our future energy system, based on 100% renewable energy. The global transformation of our energy system is the challenge of our generation, offering unique economic opportunities. This transformation process will go faster than expected, driven by the low cost of solar electricity, plus the growing availability of low-cost batteries; nuclear electricity will be priced out of the market! c-si based PV will keep the largest market share, different thin film techniques, and highly-concentrating PV (CPV), may reach interesting volumes in a 100+ GW/a market 2020. We are today at the transition point to the second phase of PV, requiring to double global production capacity by 2020 on the way to installing 5,000 30,000 GW globally by 2050! 21
Thank you for your Attention! Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Eicke R. Weber, Hans-Martin Henning, and ISE coworkers www.ise.fraunhofer.de eicke.weber@ise.fraunhofer.de, hans-martin.henning@ise.fraunhofer.de 22