Management of the Niemen River basin with account of adaptation to climate change Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin Vladimir Korneev, Egidijus Rimkus v_korn@rambler.ru egidijus.rimkus@gf.vu.lt With contribution: Edvinas Stonevicius, Vilnius University, Lithuania; Aliaksandr Pakhomau, Lubov Hertman, CRICUWR, Minsk, Belarus; Audrius Šepikas, Environmental Protection Agency, Lithuania; Nickolai Denisov, Zoï environment network, Switzerland
The main goal is improvement of the integrated water resources management using the basin approach in the climate change context by the example of the Niemen River
Activities in 2012 and main reached results Meteorological and hydrological data collection and quality analysis (data from 1961 to 2010); Statistical analysis and evaluation of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics; Assessment of the future climate condition and forecast for near-term future (2035; mean value of 2021-2050) according to A1B and B1 emission scenarios using regional CCLM climate model outputs; Preliminary projections of runoff changes in the Niemen River basin in the context of climate change using two different hydrological models.
Meteorological and hydrological data collection
Meteorological and hydrological information which was used: (daily, monthly, seasonal, annual values) Analysis period: 1961-2010 Temperature/precipitation: Data from 23 stations (8 stations in Belarus, 15 stations in Lithuania) Water discharge: Data from 25 stations (12 stations in Belarus, 13 stations in Lithuania) Additional information necessary for hydrological modeling: wind speed, humidity, sunshine duration
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Detected changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics
Air temperature 3.0 Assessment of the change of temperature ( 0 C) in the Niemen River Basin (1986-2010) - (1961-1985): on average +0.93 0 C 2.5 2.4 Months (difference, 0 C) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2.0 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.2 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0-0.5 January February March April May June July August September October November December
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Precipitation amount Assessment of the change of precipitation (%) in the Niemen River Basin (1986-2010) - (1961-1985): on average +6.98% 10.0 8.0 8.2 8.9 8.0 6.7 Months (difference, %) 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0 5.3 0.0 2.4 3.5 0.9-0.4-6.0-8.0 January February March April -6.5 May June July August September October November -7.0 December
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Water discharge 50 40 42.0 Assessment of the change of runoff (%) in the Niemen River Basin (1985-2009) - (1961-1984): average annual +2.7%; minimum (summer-autumn) +7.2%; minimum (winter) +17.5%; maximum (spring) -27.4% 44.2 Months (difference, %) 30 20 10 0-10 6.7-5.2 2.9 5.9 0.9 5.7 0.4-1.5 6.9-20 -30 January February March -19.9 April May June July August September October November December
Hydrograph shape at the Dubysa (a) and the Niemen (b) rivers during two parts of the study period 1960-1984 and 1985-2009
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Detected changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics The main tendencies and trends: Statistically significant increase in annual, winter and summer temperature (largest changes were observed in January); Statistically significant increase in winter precipitation; Maximum spring flood discharge decreased and the minimum winter flow increased statistically significant in large part of territory Peak of spring flood and the dates of minimum winter flow tends occur earlier in the whole basin area.
Future climate projections
Climate projections for the whole Nemunas basin was made with using CCLM model outputs The regional CCLM model runs are driven by the initial and boundary conditions of the Global Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Realizations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model were dynamically downscaled to a smaller grid using the CCLM model. Two greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used A1B (relatively high-emission scenario) B1 (low-emission scenario) Near-term forecast 2020-2050 was made The regional CCLM model covers a large part of the European territory with a high spatial resolution (20 km 20 km).
Air temperature projections Assessment of the future change of temperature in the Niemen River Basin until 2035 (mean value of 2021-2050). On average: A1B +1.7 0 C; B1 +1.36 0 C 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.2 A1B scenario B1 scenatio 2.8 2.6 change, 0 C 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.7 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 January February March April May June July August September October November December
A1B Annual B1
A1B Winter B1
Precipitation amount 20.0 15.0 Assessment of the future change of precipitation in the Niemen River Basin until 2035 (mean value of 2021-2050). On average: A1B +6.51%; B1 +2.42% 14.0 12.1 A1B scenario B1 scenatio 10.0 9.1 9.5 9.3 change, % 5.0 6.7 3.6 6.4 6.7 1.9 5.0 ` 2.9 5.1 2.2 6.8 2.5 2.6 6.9 4.4 7.2 0.0-0.7-5.0-4.3-4.8-10.0-8.0 January February March April May June July August September October November December
Annual A1B B1
Winter A1B B1
Summer A1B B1
Projections of runoff changes in the Niemen River basin
Prediction of Niemen River basin runoff changes were made using WatBal hydrological model. 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 Observed A1B B1 Merkys 0,40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Spt Oct Nov Dec Jan 0,90 0,80 0,70 Schara 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 Observed A1B B1 0,20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags Spt Oct Nov Dec Jan
Planned future activities Forecasting the runoff of the Niemen River basin in the context of climate change and with account of different scenarios for water use and socio-economic development; Analysis of the hydrometeorological, hydrochemical and hydrobiological monitoring systems in the Niemen River transboundary basin and assessment of the needs for these systems optimization for climate change monitoring (including emergency cases); Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the water quality; Elaboration of the common information platform (Internet database), containing data on water resources management and adaptation to climate change for the Niemen River basin countries and recommendations for the improvement of the water management in the Niemen River Basin with account of adaptation to climate change.
Assessment of water quality based on the European System of Classification (e.g. Lithuanian experience) Typology of rivers and lakes (Lithuanian experience) Parameter TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 River basin area, km 2 <100 100-1000 >1000 River slope, m/km - <0,7 >0,7 <0,3 >0,3 Lake depth < 3 3-9 >9
Assessment of water quality based on the European System of Classification Classification of ecological status of lakes (Lithuanian experience) No. 1 Quality element Parame ter Lake type Paramete r value for reference condition s Nt, mg/l 1, 2 1 <1.30 2 Nt, mg/l 3 0.75 <0.90 General Nutrients 3 conditions Pt, mg/l 1, 2 0.02 <0.040 4 Pt, mg/l 3 0.015 <0.030 Criteria for ecological status classes of lakes according to parameter values for the physicochemical quality element High Good Moderate Poor Bad 1.30-1.80 0.90-1.20 0.040-0.060 0.030-0.050 1.81-2.30 1.21-1.60 0.061-0.090 0.051-0.070 2.31-3.00 1.61-2.00 0.091-0.140 0.071-0.100 >3.00 >2.00 >0.140 >0.100
Assessment of water quality based on the European System of Classification Classification of ecological status of rivers (Lithuanian experience) No. Quality element Paramet er River type Parameter value for reference conditions * Criteria for ecological status classes of rivers according to parameter values for physico-chemical quality elements High Good Mode rate Poor Bad 1 NO 3 -N, mg/l 1-5 0.9 <1.30 1.30-2.30 2.31-4.50 4.51-10.00 >10.00 2 NH 4 +N, mg/l 1-5 0.06 <0.10 0.10-0.20 0.21-0.60 0.61-1.50 >1.50 Nutrien 3 Nt, mg/l 1-5 1.4 <2.00 ts 2.00-3.00 3.01-6.00 6.01-12.00 >12.00 4 PO 4 -P, General mg/l 1-5 0.03 <0.050 data 5 Pt, mg/l 1-5 0.06 <0.100 0.050-0.090 0.100-0.140 0.091-0.180 0.141-0.230 0.181-0.400 0.231-0.470 >0.400 >0.470 6 Organic matter BOD 7, mg/l 1-5 1.8 <2.30 2.30-3.30 3.31-5.00 5.01-7.00 >7.00 7 1, 3, 4, O 2, mg/l Oxygen 5 9.5 >8.50 ation 8 O 2, mg/l 2 8.5 >7.50 8.50-7.50 7.50-6.50 7.49-6.00 6.49-5.00 5.99-3.00 4.99-2.00 <3.00 <2.00
Thank you for attention! River Niemen in Grodno (Belarus)