From each according to his ability; to each according to his needs Karl Marx s s dictum as applied to energy supply and consumption in a North American context T T Vandergraaf e-mail: ttveiv@mts.net Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 1
historic US retail gasoline prices 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 $/US gln 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 07/05/90 22/03/93 05/02/96 21/12/98 05/11/01 20/09/04 06/08/07 DATE source: www. eia.doe.gov Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 2
historic crude oil prices 160 140 120 2007$ actual $ 100 $ US 80 60 40 20 0 1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010 YEAR source:www.bp.com/statisticalreview Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 3
world primary energy consumption 12000 10000 8000 MT (oil) EQUIV 6000 4000 2000 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR source:www.bp.com/statisticalreview Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 4
primary energy consumption 5000 4500 4000 3500 Canada US European Union Former Soviet Union Other EMEs MT (oil) EQUIV 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR source:www.bp.com/statisticalreview Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 5
oil production and consumption 1000 4000 900 3500 million tonnes (US, Canada) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 US - production Canada - production US - consumption Canada - consumption World - production 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 million tonnes (World) 100 500 0 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 6
questions how much energy do we use? in what form does the energy come? what do we do with the energy? can we substitute different forms of energy and, if so, how? what can we, as Christians, do to minimize the impact of rising fuel prices on the poor? Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 7
primary energy consumption by fuel 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hydro Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Oil US Hydro Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Oil Canada Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 8
data for Canada source: Office of Energy Efficiency, Natural Resources Canada (http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/english/index.cfm?attr=0) Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 9
secondary energy use (PJ) Electricity Natural Gas 5% 5% 4% 1% 23% Motor Gasoline Oil Aviation Gasoline Aviation Turbo Fuel Petroleum Coke and Still Gas 3% 0% Wood Waste and Pulping Liquor Other Fuels(coal, LPG, coke etc.) Residential Wood 17% 25% 17% Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 10
secondary energy use by sector 12% 1% 2% 17% Residential Commercial/Institutional Industrial Passenger Transportation Freight Transportation Off-Road Agriculture 16% 14% 38% Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 11
recent fossil fuel prices US$/million BTU 14 12 10 8 6 4 LNG (Japan) NG (EU) NG (UK) NG (US) NG (Canada) Crude Oil 2 0 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 YEAR source:www.bp.com/statisticalreview Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 12
Canada: projected population to 2031 43 Actual 26% Low Population [million] 39 35 Medium High 18% 9% 31 27 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 YEAR Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 13
residential (17%) Electricity Natural Gas Heating Oil Other Wood Space Heating Water Heating Appliances Lighting Space Cooling m2/household 130 128 126 124 122 replacing oil used in home heating with electricity would reduce annual oil consumption by ~2 mmt or ~2% of Canada s oil consumption 120 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 YEAR Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 14
commercial institutional (14%) Electricity Natural Gas Light Fuel Oil and Kerosene Heavy Fuel Oil Steam Other Space Heating Water Heating Auxiliary Equipment Auxiliary Motors Lighting Space Cooling Street Lighting replacing all fossil fuels except natural gas with electricity would reduce annual oil consumption by ~4 mmt or ~4% of Canada s oil consumption Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 15
industrial (38%) Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 16
industrial users of 90% of energy Upstream Mining Pulp Mills Petroleum Refining Newsprint Mills Iron and Steel Primary Production of Alumina and Aluminum Other Manufacturing n.e.c. Paper Mills (except newsprint) Other Non-Ferrous Smelting and Refining Other Basic Chemicals Industry Wood Products Industries Cement Industry Paperboard Mills Construction Petrochemical Industry Fertilizer Industry Fabricated Metal Products Industries Other Food Industries Iron Mines Potash Mines Plastic Products Industries 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 PJ Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 17
transportation (29%) passenger Electricity Natural Gas Motor Gas oline Diesel Fuel Oil Aviation Gasoline freight Natural Gas Motor Gasoline Diesel Fuel Oil Light Fuel Oil and Kerosene Heavy Fuel Oil Aviation Gasoline Aviation Turbo Fuel Aviation Turbo Fuel Propane Propane Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 18
efficiency of freight transportation Ton-km/MJ 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 shifting 25% of road transport to rail will free up 4.6 mmt of oil or 4.6% of Canada s oil consumption electrifying 25% of the railway frees up another 0.54 mmt of oil this energy could be generated by one 878 MW(e) CANDU nuclear power plant, [e.g. Darlington-1] 0.0 road air rail marine Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 19
potential ways forward residential increase use of electricity emphasize smaller homes centralization - decentralization commercial/institutional increase use of electricity emphasize smaller homes build smaller churches transportation shift road transport to rail electrify the railway system (if Russia can electrify the Trans Siberia Railroad, we should be able to electrify the railroads in Canada and the US) redesign cities to be more compact so that [electric] urban transit is viable electricity generation hydroelectric nuclear wind power solar, where applicable Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 20
assumptions fossil fuel resources are finite energy prices will not decrease or not decrease substantially energy consumption will stabilize populations in US and Canada will increase increased energy efficiency is offset by population increase electorate is not altruistic Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 21
electricity generation 9% Energy Use by Energy Source (PJ) 6% 33% Hydro Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Other Fossil Fuel 14% Electricity Generated by Energy Source (GWh) 4% Hydro 6% Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Other Fossil Fuel 25% 59% 17% 27% If all current electrical energy generated by oil were replaced by nuclear or renewable fuels, the offset would be equivalent to ~4 million barrels of oil and reduce Canada s oil consumption by ~4% Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 22
potential challenges time frame do we have sufficient time to make the shift without adversely affecting the people at the economic margins? financial costs of infrastructure building new hydro dams, nuclear power plants, wind generators, solar panels is expensive; if it were not, they would have been built earlier hydro (Manitoba Hydro) Wuskwatim: 200 MW; 1600 M$ [8 k$/kw] Conawapa: 1485 MW; 5000 M$ [>3 k$/kw] Pointe du Bois refurbishing; 120 MW; 800M$ [~7 k$/kw] nuclear generating stations: 1000 MW; 1000 3000 M$ [1 3 k$/kw] wind generators: 1.5 MW; ~3M$ [2 k$/kw] Sarnia [ON] solar farm: 40 MW; 300M$ (+ 365 ha!) [7.5 k$/kw] as energy becomes more expensive, construction costs increase (concrete for dams) energy costs of infrastructure socio-environmental costs NIMBY impact on environment impact on aboriginal societies Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 23
increased residential electricity use reference community 10 000 residences 25 000 inhabitants only oil replaced by 1.5 MW wind turbines 8.4 x 10 4 GJ required 2 wind turbines @ 100% availability 5 7 wind turbines @ 25 33% availability all fossil fuel replaced by wind turbines 6.8 x 10 5 GJ additional energy required 14 wind turbines @ 100% availability 40 60 wind turbines @ 25 33% availability full service electrical supply required from utilities Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 24
nuclear power? Country Installed Capacity [MW(e)] Under Construction [MW(e)] Planned [MW(e)] USA 99 049 0 15 000 Canada 12 652 1 500 3 300 UK 11 035 0 0 France 63 473 1 630 0 Japan 47 577 2 285 14 945 R O Korea 17 533 3 000 6 600 P R China 8 587 6 700 26 320 Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 25
known recoverable U resources (130$( 130$ US/kg) tonnes U % Australia 1,143,000 24% Kazakhstan 816,000 17% Canada 444,000 9% USA 342,000 7% South Africa 341,000 7% Namibia 282,000 6% Brazil 279,000 6% Niger 225,000 5% Russian Fed. 172,000 4% Uzbekistan 116,000 2% Ukraine 90,000 2% Jordan 79,000 2% India 67,000 1% China 60,000 1% Other 287,000 6% World total 4,743,000 Source [U] (ppm) High-grade ore - 2% U, 20,000 Low-grade ore - 0.1% U, 1,000 Granite 4 Sedimentary rock 2 Earth's continental crust (av) 2.8 Seawater 0.003 Current usage ~68 000 tu/a source: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf75.htm Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 26
what about the future? fuel as price of U increases, lower grade ore deposits will be become more economic to mine 3.8 Mt U @ 80$US/kgU 4.7 Mt U @ 130$US/kg U doubling the cost of U increases cost per kwh by ~20% extract U from seawater reprocessing reactor design improved efficiency (>30%) breeder reactors Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 27
methods to extent fissile supply fast breeder reactors (Pu-U MOX) convert fertile 238 U to fissile 239 Pu USA (EBR-1 [Idaho]) France (Phenix, SuperPhenix) Japan (Monju) UK (Dounray) thermal breeder reactors (Th-U MOX) convert fertile 232 Th to fissile 233 U India (research only) Canada (research only) Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 28
concluding comments societies based on current energy mix cannot be sustained drastic decrease in energy consumption cannot be legislated fossil fuels should be reserved as chemical feedstock and to power mobile equipment considerable energy savings can be achieved by shifting transportation from road to rail residential and commercial/institutional sectors should increase use of electricity electricity generation should include a mix of nuclear and renewable (wind, solar) sources time to take action was ten years ago Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 29
Thank You Vandergraaf ASA - 2008 August 30