Energy Statistics: Making the Numbers Count IFEG Autumn Seminar, 5 th November 29 Paul Appleby, BP Group Economics Team Working with Energy Statistics The key challenges. Finding relevant & reliable data Presenting it in a way that helps decision-makers Need to understand the data, but also understand the audience.
The BP Statistical Review of World Energy Published annually (June) in hard-copy and on-line First published 1952 Provides earliest review of global energy developments for the previous year Draws on official government sources and published data Data compiled with assistance from a team at Heriot- Watt University And available free of charge! Some Basic Questions How big? (volume or value) How is it changing? trends cycles shocks and shifts How is it related to other variables? causes and consequences stocks and flows supply and demand balances
Renewable Energy Wind capacity Solar PV capacity GW GW 15 US Germany 15 US Germany Spain China Spain Japan 1 RoW 1 RoW Mexico North Sea 5 5 23 24 25 26 27 28 23 24 25 26 27 28 Sources: Includes data from BTM Consult, IEA, EPIA and EurObserver Renewable Capacity Additions 28 Wind, Top 5 Solar PV, Top 5 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 USA China Spain India Germany Spain Germany USA Italy Korea
Changes in Nuclear and Hydroelectric Output y-o-y growth Nuclear Hydro 6% 5% RoW China 4% 3% 2% 1-year average 1% % -1% -2% 24 25 26 27 28 24 25 26 27 28 OECD and Non-OECD Energy Consumption Mtoe 6 OECD Primary energy Non-OECD Mtoe 3 OECD Oil Non-OECD 4 2 2 1 Mtoe 3 1978 1988 1998 28 Gas OECD Non-OECD Mtoe 3 1978 1988 1998 28 Coal OECD Non-OECD 2 2 1 1 1978 1988 1998 28 1978 1988 1998 28
Oil Consumption Growth Mb/d 1.6 World.8 China. -.8-1.6 OECD Non-OECD World 25 26 27 28 Source: Includes data from IEA Oil Consumption Growth in 28 Mb/d 1..5 Oil exporters and importers 1-year average Tax and subsidy regimes. -.5-1. -1.5 Oil exporters Non-OECD oil importers OECD oil importers ex US US Subsidizers Taxers
Global Oil Reserves Bn bbls 14 OPEC FSU OECD Other Other Oil Sands 12 1 8 6 4 2 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 Reserves-to-Production Ratios R/P (years) 14 OPEC FSU Other 12 1 8 6 4 2 Note: Showing R/P ratios of over 2 years and reserves over 2 billion barrels. OPEC World FSU Other
Main Oil Production Changes Mb/d Decrease Increase -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1..1.2.3.4 Mexico Nigeria US Non-OPEC FSU Norway UK OPEC Russia Canada Brazil Kazakhstan Kuw ait Angola Qatar Iraq Saudi Arabia OPEC Adjusts to Falling Consumption OPEC-12 crude oil production y-o-y, Mb/d 29 2 Global consumption and production y-o-y, Mb/d 29 2 1 1-1 -1-2 -2-3 -3 Production Consumption -4 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9-4 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 1Q9 Source: Includes data from US DOE
Changes in Production and Inventories Global oil production changes Mb/d 27 28 1..5 OECD commercial inventories Million barrels 23-27 range 28 29 28 27. -.5 OPEC -12 crude 26 25 24-1. Non- OPEC Source: Includes data from IEA OPEC OPEC Non- OPEC 23 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov US Gas Production Bcm 6 Gas production Production vs. rig count outside Bcm Gulf of Mexico 55 5 53 28 4 Conventional gas 3 2 1 Non-conventional gas 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 28 Sources: Includes data from US DOE and Baker Hughes 51 49 47 45 43 41 27 26 23 22 25 21 24 1999 2 1997 1998 4 6 8 1 12 14 Gas rig count
Industrial Gas Demand Follows the Economy US Industrial Production and Industry Sector Gas Demand y-o-y change, % 6-6 -12 Industrial gas consumption Industrial Production index -18 Jan-7 Nov-7 Sep-8 Jul-9 Sources: Includes data from US DOE and Federal Reserve US Gas Market Dynamics at Play Inventories Rise Gas Rig Count Falls Bcf 36 31 26 21 Range 24-8 29 28 Number of rigs 16 27 14 12 28 16 1 11 8 29 6 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 6 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Sources: Includes data from US DOE and Baker Hughes
Fuel Switching in Power Generation 25-8 Gas Share UK gas vs. coal 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Gas is not competitive Gas is competitive 2% -6-5 -4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 Gas competitiveness vs. coal ( /MWh) Sources: BERR, Platts, McCloskey, European Climate Exchange Gas Share of Total Primary Energy 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% Brazil Spain Turkey Egypt South Korea cagr 1997-27 11.1% 7.8% 9.5% 5.7% 5.6% 15% 1% 5% % 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27
Trade as Share of Total Production Gas Oil 7% Share of production 7% Share of production 6% Pipeline LNG 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 74% of gas consumed where it is produced in 27 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % % 1987 1991 1995 1999 23 27 1987 1991 1995 1999 23 27 Data sources: Cedigaz, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 28 World Fuel Shares 19-25 Share of global primary energy consumption 1% 8% Coal 6% 4% 2% Nuclear Gas Oil Hydro % 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 Source: Data before 1955 from Jenkins, G. Oil Economist's Handbook (1989)
World Oil Production 19-26 Million barrels per day 9 8 7 6 5 4 Africa Middle East Asia Pacific Europe FSU S&C America North America 3 2 1 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 Source: Data before 1965 from DeGolyer and MacNaughton, Twentieth Century Petroleum Statistics (1997); API "Petroleum Facts & Figures" (1931) Making the Numbers Count Energy statistics have impact when they address real and topical issues they are part of a coherent story they test our mental models