Sustainability and Global Food Security: Paradox or Necessity? Dr. Greg Pillar William S. Lee Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Chemistry Thrive.
You can t build a peaceful world on empty stomachs and human misery -- Norman Borlaug Photograph: CIMMYT via Flickr Photograph: Micheline Pelletier/Sygma/Corb
Human Population Global human population (billions) 10 9.2 billion 8 7.1 billion 6.0 billion 6 2.5 billion 1.6 billion 1 billion 4 2 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year UN Population Division, 2009 2.5 people per second (80 million per year)
Global Hunger 1050 20 Undernourished (Millions) 1000 950 900 850 800 Population Undernourished Prevalence of Undernourishment 750 10 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 18 16 14 12 Undernourished (%)
Hunger in Africa 240 240 28 Undernourished (Millions) 230 Undernourished (Millions) 220 210 200 190 180 230 220 210 200 190 180 26 24 22 20 Undernourished (%) 170 170 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 18
Global Food Supply Food Supply (kcal/capita/day) 4000 3000 3500 2800 3000 2600 2500 2400 2000 2200 North America Africa Central America Caribbean South America Asia Europe 1500 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Global Food Supply
Food Production - Grains Relative Production (Scaled to 1 in 1961) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Main Grains (wheat, barley, maize, rice, oats) Coarse Grains (millet, sorghum) Root Crops (cassava, potato) 1.0 0.5 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Food Production - Meat Relative Production (scaled to 1 in 1961) 14 12 10 8 6 4 Chickens Pigs Cattle Sheep and Goats 2 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Food Riots Egypt Algeria Venezuela & April Tunisia - 2014 & June 2011 2008
Focus #1 Sustainable Sourcing
Modern Agriculture Fossil Fuel Resources Machines Fertilization Solar Energy Precipitation Carbon Dioxide Plant Nutrients & Amendments Seed Seeding Tillage Irrigation Harvest & Storage Water Agricultural Chemicals Purchased Inputs Pest Control Farm Production
Food Production & Fertilizers 5.0 4.5 1961-2002 Food Production (billion tonnes) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 R 2 = 0.86 2.0 1.5 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Fertilizer Consumption (Mt yr -1 ) FAO, 2011
Food Production & Resources (1961 2002) Food Production (billion tonnes) Food Production (billion tonnes) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 R 2 = 0.86 R 2 = 0.96 R 2 = 0.99 Food Production (billion tonnes) Food Production (billion tonnes) 1.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 Agricultural Land Area (billion ha) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 150 200 250 300 Land Area Equipped for Irrigation (million ha) Fertilizer Consumption (Mt yr -1 ) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 R 2 = 0.93 15 20 25 30 Agricultural Machinery (millions) FAO, 2011
Sustainable Sourcing Over 95% of farms in the world are family farms Graeub, et al., 2016 FAO, 2014
Sustainable Sourcing Family Farms manage 53% of agricultural land Graeub, et al., 2016 FAO, 2014
Agroecology http://ecosocialismcanada.blogspot.com http://casfs.ucsc.edu/about/photo-gallery
Urban Agriculture Justin Sullivan / Getty http://greensgrow.org http://riotofreasons.blogspot.com
Aquaculture
Urban Aquaculture http://www.growingpower.org
Focus #2 Improve Land & Water Management
Feeding the World in 2050 Population (millions) 2500 Africa 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 909% 1.1 billion hectares 17% Planted Crops Total Arable Rain-Irrigated Land Sub-Saharan Africa UNEP, International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), World Atlas of Desertification, 1997. Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal World Soil Resources Report, 2000 http://www.geohive.com, 2013
Feeding the World in 2050 700 Central & South America Population (millions) 600 500 400 300 200 478% 100 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 1.0 billion hectares Total Arable Rain-Irrigated Land 14% Planted Crops Central/South America UNEP, International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), World Atlas of Desertification, 1997. Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal World Soil Resources Report, 2000 http://www.geohive.com, 2013
Feeding the World in 2050 6000 Asia Population (millions) 5000 4000 3000 2000 383% 1000 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 0.20 billion hectares 0.21 billion hectares 71% Planted Crops China 77% Planted Crops India UNEP, International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), World Atlas of Desertification, 1997. Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal World Soil Resources Report, 2000 http://www.geohive.com, 2013
Population Growth and Arable Land 10 0.6 World population (billions) 8 6 4 2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Arable land (ha/person) 0 0.1 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Human Population Human population (projected) Arable land Earthtrends.wri.org Faostat.fao.org/faostat
Water Resource Use Projected increases in water withdrawals for agriculture 1998-2030 Freshwater withdrawal in agriculture, industry and domestic use. (2002). In UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. Retrieved 05:04, August 19, 2011 from http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater_withdrawal_in_agriculture_industry_and_domestic_u se.
Focus #3 Climate Change
2015 Climate Anomalies and Events United Chile Eastern Western Australia Africa China Atlantic Arctic States Hurricane Pacific Hurricane Typhoon Season Season January Above Above 52 Flooding Below Sea th nd warmest ice average average had was impacted the year and (144% (63% lowest driest 3on rd over wettest record, of of month growth 75 normal), million (behind year October and over since people first 42010) th was 5 largest time record decades unusually ever collecting melt 3 storms on warm record began at the in same 1895, May time was the wettest month on record.
Climate Change
Climate Change USAID, 2008
Climate Change - Climate models suggest Central America will see warmer, drier conditions. More erratic weather patterns likely - Farmers should diversify crops (agroecology) and in some cases away from coffee. To be 100% in coffee these days I think is extremely risky Peter Baker, CABI - Roya, a leaf rust fungus has caused $1 billion in damages in the region. Dyer, 2014
Yap A small island with big challenges http://pohnpeitravel.com http://www.jonastonboe.com
Climate Extinction?
Focus #4 Nutrition & Food Waste
Ecuador: The Ayme family of Tingo Food expenditure for one week: $31.55 Menzel & D Aluisio, 2008
United States: The Revis family of North Carolina Food expenditure for one week: $341.98 Menzel & D Aluisio, 2008
Expanding Western Diet
Expanding Western Diet
Food Waste 20% 30% Oilseeds Cereals 20% 1/3 Of the worlds food is wasted each year which is the equivalent to 1.3 billion tons. 35% Meat and dairy 40 50% Root Crops, Fruits, Veggies Fish
Focus #5 Technology & Sustainability
Genetically Modified Food http://www.american.com http://www.macalester.edu
Flood Tolerant Rice (SUB1A)
System of Rice Intensification (SRI) Planting of seedlings at 8 12 days (instead of 30 50 days), 25 cm apart Keeping soil moist (but well-drained and aerated) Intercropping & mechanical weeding Utilizing compost and natural fertilizers Pantanali (1996)
System of Rice Intensification (SRI) Used in over 40 countries 20,000 farmers in Madagascar have adopted 90% reduction in seed requirements 50% water savings 50 100% increase in yield China 9 10.5 t/ha (national avg = 6 t/ha) Pantanali (1996), http://sri.ciifad.cornell.edu
Focus #5 Addressing Price Volatility
FAO Food Price Index FAO, 2011
US Grocery Bill - The average American spends around 9% of their total income on food. - In 2010, households earning $5,000 - $35,000 spent 16-35% of their income on food. 25 10 21 41 - In 2010, households earning more than $70,000 spent 8% of their income on food. McMillan, 2012 Gallup, 2012 U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2009 > $100 per week $100 - $200 per week $200 - $300 per week > $300 per week
Food as a percentage of total household consumption: China 39.8% Vietnam 50.7% India 49.5% Ukraine 61.0% Philippines 45.6% Kenya 45.8% Sudan 52.9% Nigeria 73.0% Photo Credits: Reuters, AP, Nomura, AsiaNews.it Guardian.co.uk, dailymail.co.uk Nomura, 2011
The Boy Who Changed the World You can t build a peaceful world on empty stomachs and human misery -- Norman Borlaug Photograph: CIMMYT via Flickr Photograph: Micheline Pelletier/Sygma/Corb Andy Andrews
Thank You!! Online: http://www.pillarenvironmental.com Twitter: PillarESci Email: pillarg@queens.edu Thrive.