Adapting to Climate Change in the Northeast: Experiences from the Field NE SAF Annual Meeting, Nashua, NH 26 March 2014 Small Urban Mid coast Maine Large industrial Irving Woodlands Small woodlot Allen Whitney Forest Public lands State of Vermont Climate Projections for Forests: A Quick Summary 1
Temperature Temperature increase in winter Low: Increases 5 8 F. High: Increases 9 13F. Temperature increase in summer Low: Increases 5 7 F. High: Increases 6 14 F. # of days above 90 (10 now) Low: 30 days. High: 70 days. # of days above 100 Low: 6 days. High: 20 days. Very likely that temperature will increase 3 Moisture and SLR Winter precipitation Frequency of heavy rains Summer drought Change in stream flow Sea level rise Increases 20 30% with a higher percentage as rain. Increased, increase frequency of trail and road washouts Increased frequency of 1 3 month droughts, becoming annual under high emissions scenario. More headwater streams become intermittent during summer months. Reduced summer flow in most rivers Sea level rise by expansion Low: 31" High: 75" Moderately likely that rainfall patterns will change 4 2
Disturbance Agents Fire Change in fire frequency Wind Change in wind intensity Exotic Species Insect Pest Species Higher temperatures and more drought events lead to increased fire frequency More frequent and more intense storms lead to higher frequency of damaging wind events. Higher growth rates, more establishment, poison ivy Most forest pests benefit from increased tree and forest stress. Hemlock Wooly Adelgid Moderately likely that disturbance will increase 5 Forests and Trees Spruce fir forests Northern hardwood Hemlock Oak and pine Swamp Low: widespread decline and loss. High: Loss everywhere and greatest in southern areas Low: Some increased forest productivity. High: Reduced area across region. Hemlock woolly adelgid results in widespread loss. Widespread expansion, especially of pine Localized but widespread decline or loss due to drought and SLR Very likely that forests will change. Timing and magnitude of change uncertain. 6 3
Listen for The size of proposed changes Unique challenges and responses Using urban forests to increase community resiliency to climate change Andy Whitman awhitman@manomet.org www.manomet.org NE SAF Annual Meeting Nashua, NH 26 March 2014 supported by a grant from the USDA Forest Service, as recommended by the National Urban and Community Forestry Advisory Council in 201. 4
Talk Outline Urban forests are valuable Urban forests are uniquely vulnerable Weather wise checklist for Urban Forests Urban forests are valuable 5
They are the most valuable forest type Annual Value (dollars) / acre 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Forest: non-urban Forest: urban Forest: suburban Forest: riparian Forest: light cut Forest: heavy cut 11 They provide key benefits (ecosystem services) 6000 Annual Value ($) / Year 5000 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Amenity Cooling Air Pollution Control Willdife habitat Water Quality Other Cultural Vegetation Recreation Soil Erosion Control Water Supply Total 12 6
Urban forests are uniquely vulnerable Climate change will affect our urban communities Stormwater overflows Drought Extreme heat More air pollution Road surface damage 6/25/2014 14 7
and will make it harder for urban forests Heat stress Drought Flooding Severe storms (wind, ice storms, uprooting) Air pollution Insect pests Exotic species 6/25/2014 15 Climate change adaptation for urban forests is essential Most people live in urban/suburban setting Urban forests provide key benefits More resources are available to manage urban forests than other key land types. 6/25/2014 16 8
How do we adapt? Weather Wise Checklist for Urban Forests 6/25/2014 17 9
Three parts to the checklist Getting prepared Having a plan Selecting strategies and Best Management Practices (BMPs) for the adaptation in a local setting 19 Getting prepared General knowledge about climate change Community specific knowledge about potential threats 20 10
Having a plan Goals and objectives Location information Protection and maintenance activities Neighborhood area descriptions and inventory 21 Tools for Planning i Tree Suite Program Canopy Design Eco Vue Description Tree canopy cover, area of cover types, and key benefits in Google Earth. Tree benefits and ideal planting zones in Google Earth. Uses your inventory data to quantify forest structure and key benefits. Estimates cover types and some forest benefits urban, community, and private forests. 22 11
Key strategies & BMPs for climate change resiliency Tree Management and Health Local Climate Regulation Air Quality and Green House Gas Sequestration Wildlife Water Quality Amenity Value and Recreation 23 Tree Management and Health Strategy #1: Increase urban tree cover BMP: Provide homeowner incentives for planting and maintaining yard trees. Worcester Tree Initiative Chicago Toronto http://www.treeworcester.org 24 12
Tree Management and Health Strategy #2 Maintain species, structural & age class diversity BMP: Diversify species mix to reduce risk of catastrophic loss of urban trees. http://www.buffaloah.com/a/depew/elms.html 25 Tree Management and Health Strategy #3: Maintain & increase species that are resilient to climate change BMP: Plant tree species favored by warming weather Red maple Sweetgum BMP: Reduce dominance of vulnerable species Ash spp. Eastern hemlock 26 13
Tree Management and Health Strategy #4: Manage to control urban tree pests and their impacts. BMP: Track for EAB, ALB, EHS, HWA and other major pests at state level and locally. 27 Tree Management and Health Strategy #5: Use tree and shrub species native to the region and/or eastern North America. BMP: Plant native trees and shrubs when possible BMP: Track existing and emerging threats of invasive species Buckthorn Japanese Barberry 28 14
Other strategies Local Climate Regulation Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Sequestration Wildlife Water Quality Amenity Value and Recreation Most weather wise BMPs are general good practices that manage risk, including climate change 29 Three points (summary) Urban forests are key assets Urban forests are at risk to climate change Use appropriate strategies and BMPS can make urban forests more resilient to climate change, enhance benefits from urban trees, and make local our communities more resilient 30 15