Scientific updates on current emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases and implications for future emissions pathways Dr Richard A. Houghton, Woods Hole Research Center with contributions from the Global Carbon Project, C. Le Quéré, G. Marland, J. Hackler, T. Boden, J. Canadell, P. Friedlingstein, T. Conway, M. Raupach, P. Ciais and others. slides available on www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget
relative contribution of different greenhouse gases Radiative forcing since 1750 (W/m 2 ) 3 2 1 CO 2 (64%) CH 4 (18%) Other gases 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 The contribution of CO 2 to total anthropogenic greenhouse gases is growing N 2 O (6%) Time (y) NOAA-ESRL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/
Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from fossil fuel burning
Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) 9 8 7 1990-1999 1 % per year 2000-2009 2.5 % per year 2009: Emissions: 8.4 PgC (30.5 Gt CO 2 ) Growth rate: -1.3% 6 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Time (y) CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience
Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions 5 CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) 4 3 2 Annex B (Kyoto protocol) Industrial Nations Non Annex B Emerging Economies & Developing Countries most of the growth in global emissions originates from emerging economies 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Time (y) CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience
2000 Top Emitters China per capita (2007) ton C per person 1.4 (China) CO 2 Emissions (million tons C/y) 1600 1200 800 400 Russian Fed. USA Japan India 5.2 (USA) 0.4 (India) 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden- CDIAC 2010
Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO 2 y -1 ) Year 2004 From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red). Davis & Caldeira 2010, PNAS; See also Peters & Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech.
CO 2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) 3 2 1 Gas Coal Cement production 40% 36% Liquids Global CO 2 emissions now dominated by coal Coal emits more CO 2 than liquids or gas 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Time (y) CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience
Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) 9 8 7 6 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Time (y) 2010: Projected growth rate: >3 % Based on 4.8 % projected growth in GDP by the IMF, and -1.7 % improvement in carbon intensity of the economy. CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience
Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions compared to IPCC Marker scenarios used for climate projections CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) 9 8 7 6 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Time (y) 2000-2009 growth rates are at the high end of the emissions scenarios used by the IPCC to project climate change IPCC range: 1.6-6.9 C above pre-industrial in 2100 Updated from Le Quéré et al (2009) Nature Geoscience, using Marker scenarios modified from Raupach et al. PNAS (2007)
Emissions of CO 2 from deforestation and other Land Use Change (LUC)
CO 2 Emissions from deforestation and other Land Use Change CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) 3 2 1 1990-1999 1.5±0.7 2000-2009 1.1±0.7 Estimated ~25% decrease between the two decades with large uncertainty 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Time (y) WHRC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience
Regional Emissions from Land Use Change CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 Tropical Temperate 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication 1990 2000 2010 Both tropical and temperate LUC recently decreasing Temperate LUC could now be a small CO 2 sink
Regional Emissions from Land Use Change 1000 CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) 800 600 400 200 0-200 1850 1860 1870 1880 Latin America S & SE Asia Tropical Africa 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication 1990 2000 2010 Satellite data for Brazil and Indonesia support recent LUC trends
Total CO 2 Emissions (1960-2009) CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) 10 8 6 4 2 Fossil fuel Land use change 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 LUC emissions now ~10% of total CO 2 emissions Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
Fate of CO 2 emissions
Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2000-2009) 1.1 PgC y -1 4.1 PgC y -1 47% 2.4 PgC + y-1 7.7 PgC y 27% -1 26% 2.3 PgC y -1 Global Carbon Project (2010), updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Greenhouse gas concentration (1978-2010) CO 2 (ppm) Atmospheric CO 2 concentration in Sept 2010: 389.2 ppm CH 4 (ppb) Atmospheric CH 4 concentration increased for the third year in a row after being stable for 10 year. The cause of the recent increased is unknown. Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Implications of recent trends for future emissions pathways
Emission scenarios consistent with 2 C limit Global air temperature ( C) 7 C (12.6 F) 2 C (3.6 F) 1900 2000 2100 25% probability of exceeding 2 C: no more than 185 PgC (677 billion ton CO 2 ) emitted until 2050 50% probability of exceeding 2 C: no more than 305 PgC (1120 billion ton CO 2 ) emitted until 2050 time (y) Meinshausen et al. Nature 2009
References cited in this ppt Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 18866 18870, http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.abstract Carbon Dioxide Information Analyses Center (CDIAC). http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html International Monetary Fund (2010) World economic outlook. October 2010. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/ Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO 2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, Online 21 November 2010. Global Carbon Project (2010) Carbon budget and trends 2009. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689. Meinshausen et al. (2009). Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2C. Nature, 458 1158-1163. Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO 2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42: 1401-1407. Raupach MR et al. (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO 2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 14: 10288-10293. http://www.pnas.org/content/104/24/10288 Tans P, Conway T (2010) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends
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Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle CO 2 Partitioning (PgC y -1 ) 10 8 6 4 2 Total CO 2 emissions Atmosphere 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
Modelled Natural CO 2 Sinks 2 Land sink (PgC/y) 0-2 -4-6 2 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Ocean sink (PgC/y) 0-2 -4-6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (y) Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
Top 20 CO 2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009 6 250 Per Capita Emissions (tonnes C person -1 y -1 ) 5 200 4 150 3 100 2 1 50 Total CO2 emissions (x10,000 PgC y -1 ) 0 POLAND SPAIN AUSTRALIA FRANCE (inl. Monaco) ITALY BRAZIL SOUTH AFRICA INDONESIA MEXICO SAUDI ARABIA CANADA UNITED KINGDOM IRAN SOUTH KOREA JAPAN GERMANY INDIA RUSSIA CHINA USA 0 Global Carbon Project 2010; Population World Bank 2010; CDIAC 2010