Imed Market- New PMI Number Likely to Bounce Price for a Short Rebound UMETAL-CHINA, Imed iron ore market remained sluggish, however foreign quotes as well spot offering prices stayed still on increasing market confidence from the new-released PMI and even with possibilities for boosting. Weak market under weak demands of iron ore remained in yesterday while rebar and swaps went slight ups and downs and billet rose slightly. A tender for 70,000 Yandi concluded at USD 124.5, meanwhile a PB offered at USD 134.5, arriving in Apr, failed to conclude with rarely enquiries. On platforms, rarely small amount offers were published and none of them managed to sell out. For spot cargo at Chinese s, without solid sups from purchase of steelmakers, with only transactions for thousands, the price dipped for RMB 5-10 further. However, initial numbers of PMI, rising to 51.7, released by HSBC suddenly boost the market confidence for all market players. Previous PMI numbers in Feb made investors worried about the weak session of China economy would begin while the new numbers showed the key factor of low Feb numbers would because the long holiday of Chinese New Year and showed the steady growing economy situation in China since the beginning of 2013. Steel billet inched up by RMB10/tonne to RMB 3,240/tonne in Tangshan market, with the most active rebar future 1310 opens at RMB 3885/tonne this morning. Some rolling mills reedly met improved deliveries, while the whole transactions were unfavorable. Steel traders choose to check the market carefully. Of the 86 Medium- and large-sized steelmakers, 26 ones were in red, with a total loss of RMB2.079 billion. Although the one-third loss coverage declined from a year ago, the entire steel sector is still distressed. RMB/tonne) March 21, 1-day 1-week 4-week Change 2013 Change Change Billet Tangshan 3,240 - +50-70 Rebar (HRB335 &525mm) Beijing (Hebei Steel) 3,610 - - -150 Shanghai (Shagang) 3,650 - - -280 Guangzhou (Shaoguan Steel) 3,820 - +20-300 HRC (Q235 5.5*1500*C) Beijing (Tangsteel) 3,840 - - -290 Shanghai (Shagang) 3,880 - - -350 Guangzhou (Liuzhou Steel) 3,950 - - -290 Steel Strip 145mm Tangshan 3,460 - +10-50 Angle Steel Tangshan 3,620 +40 +60-100
Rebar futures rose slightly on Tuesday for its Oct contract closed at RMB 3,869. Delivery Last Change Open Month Settlement Open High Low Close Settlement Change % Volume Volume Interest Change 1304 3794 3800 3815 3800 3801 3809 7 15 54 1568-8 1305 3789 3795 3837 3780 3828 3817 39 28 19610 57460-3714 1306 3808 3795 3868 3792 3834 3843 26 35 310 722-58 1307 3832 3845 3845 13 13 230 0 1308 3848 3862 3895 3862 3895 3871 47 23 42 204 14 1309 3845 3844 3899 3839 3888 3875 43 30 4962 3834-280 1310 3832 3820 3885 3818 3869 3859 37 27 2625516 1220062 15876 1311 3842 3834 3887 3820 3887 3853 45 11 5050 862 532 1312 3841 3841 3885 3841 3885 3855 44 14 118 666-68 1401 3856 3849 3900 3848 3889 3879 33 23 1530 7668 170 1402 3856 3860 3891 3860 3891 3870 35 14 6 276-2 1403 3889 3910 3910 3847 3905 3887 16-2 6 0 TOTAL 2657204 1293552 12462 For swaps, Mar contract closed at USD 139.25; Apr contract closed at USD 132.00 on Wednesday. Swaps curve and closing prices 21-Mar Market prices FIS Period Bid Offer Close Mar-13 $139.00 $139.50 $139.25 Apr-13 $131.50 $132.50 $132.00 Q213 $127.00 $128.00 $127.50 Q313 $119.00 $121.50 $120.25 Q413 $116.00 $117.50 $116.75 Q114 $113.00 $115.00 $114.00 Cal14 $109.00 $112.00 $110.50 Cal15 $103.00 $106.00 $104.50 For Indexes, TSI dipped USD 0.30 to USD 134.10; MBIO dropped USD 0.89 to USD 133.29; Platts down USD 0.25 to USD 133.250 while index average stayed USD 0.48 lower to USD 133.55.
INDEX Price Change in $ MTD TSI 62% $134.10 -$0.30 $141.44 MBIO $133.29 -$0.89 $142.27 Platts $133.25 -$0.25 $141.59 Index Average $133.55 -$0.48 $141.77 (US$ 1=RMB 6.2731; Reing by Nick Zhang) ANNEX: Stocks at Tangshan Region Steelmakers 02-22 Scale (annual billet production) Domestic iron ore Imed iron ore Sintering ratio for imed Change iron ore Over 10 Mln 15-20 days 15-20 days Over 90% 5-10 Mln 15-20 days 20 days Over 90% 3-5 Mln 15 days 15 days 80%-90% Beneath 3 Mln 15 days 15-20 days Over 80% Steel inventories on Mar 15, 2013. (Unit: k tonnes) Product Change WoW Same Change YoY Mar 15, Mar 8, Period of 2013 2013 Amount % Amount % 2012 Rebar 10948.5 10797.9 150.6 1.39 8779.1 2169.4 24.71 Wire Rod 3373.5 3302.4 71.1 2.15 2450.3 923.2 37.68 CR Steel 1704.8 1704.5 0.3 0.02 1738.1-33.3-1.92 HR Steel 4755.7 4732.7 23 0.49 5276.8-521.1-9.88 Medium Plate 1725 1778.5-53.5-3.01 1602.6 122.4 7.64 Total 22507.5 22316 191.5 0.86 19846.9 2660.6 13.41 Operation Rates of Furnaces in Tangshan 3-8 Maintaining numbers Volumes Operation rates Average grade 11 5670 95.4% 50.3%
Price Gap between imed and domestic iron ore in RMB/tonne 62.5% Newman at Jingtang 66% domestic at Price Gap Tangshan 1080 1050 30 Remark: DMT, tax included, deliver to mills in cash. Imed iron ore stocks at Major 34 Chinese s 3-15 Region Mar 8 Mar 1 Change TOTAL 73,850,000 77,750,000-3,900,000 2,150,000 2,150,000 - Australian 33,250,000 34,800,000-1,550,000 Brazil 19,150,000 20,000,000-850,000 Sales Prices of Imed in Port Qingdao on Mar 21, 2013 Port Grades RMB/WMT(17% Price Change VAT included) PB 61.50% 940 - PB lumps 62.50% 1050 - MAC 61.50% 930 - MAC lumps 62.50% 1030 - Newman 62.50% 960 - Newman lumps 63.50% 1060 - YANDI 58.00% 890 - Rocket 59.00% 890 - SF 57.60% 870 - SSF 56.50% 840 - Robe river 57.00% 860 - Qingdao Channar 62.00% 950 - Channar lumps 64.00% 1050 - Mount Gibson 60.00% 890 - Mount Gibson lumps 62.00% 1000 - One steel 58.00% 830 - One steel lumps 58.00% 880 - Atlas 57.00% 830 - PMI 57.00% 830 - Bonnie 57.50% 850 - Carajas 65.00% 990 - Brazilian 64.50% 970 - Brazilian 63.50% 950 -
Port Grades RMB/WMT(17% Price Change VAT included) Brazilian 60.00% 870 - Brazilian 66.00% 1020 - Brazilian pellets 65.00% 1160 - Brazilian lumps 65.00% 1090 - S. African 65.00% 1030 - S. African 64.00% 1040 - S. African 58.00% 800 - S. African lumps 65.00% 1120 - n 63.50% 950 - n 62.00% 920 - n 58.00% 840 - n 57.00% 810 - n 54.00% 730 - n 52.00% 690 - n 50.00% 630 - n lumps 57.00% 840 - n lumps 54.00% 740 - Iranian hematite 62% 840 - Iranian hematite 60% 790 - Iranian hematite 58% 750 - Iranian hematite 54% 630 - Iranian magnetite 61% 840 - Iranian magnetite 58% 770 - Iranian magnetite 56% 720 - Iranian magnetite lumps 61% 890 - Ukrainian 66.00% 1030 - Ukrainian 63.50% 970 -
Port Grades RMB/WMT(17% Price Change VAT included) Ukrainian pellets 65.00% 1140 - Ukrainian pellets 63.00% 1090 - Canada 66.00% 1040 - Canadian pellets 65.00% 1160 - Russia 66% 1030 - Russia 63.50% 980 - Russian pellets 65% 1150 - Russian pellets 63% 1100 - Indonesian 62.00% 730 - Indonesian 52.00% 480 - Peruvian 64.00% 910 - Chilean 67.00% 1040 - Chilean pellets 67.00% 1180 - Chliean 63.50% 900 - Malaysian sea sands 60.00% - - Malaysian 57.00% 680 - Mauritanian 62.00% 850 - U.S. 66.00% 980 - U.S. 58.00% 790 - U.S. pellets 65.00% 1140 - Venezuelan 64.50% 950 - Mexico 63.50% 870 - Mexico 58.00% 750 - Mexican lumps 63.50% 950 - N. Korea 54.00% 570 - Philippine sea sands 56.00% 600 - Zelanian sea sands 58.00% 680 - Finnish 66.00% 970 - Bahrainian pellets 65.00% 1160 -
Foreign Quotes for Imed in China 2013-3-21 Country Product % CFR Grade ($/DMT) Change FOB ($/DMT) Change Port of Loading Remark Australia PB 61.5 134 127 Dampier/Hedland Australia Newman 63 135 128 Dampier/Hedland Australia MAC 61.5 133 126 Dampier/Hedland Australia YANDI 58 125 119 Dampier/Hedland Australia Robe River 56 123 116 Dampier/Hedland Australia PB lumps 62 143 135 Dampier/Hedland Australia Newman lumps 63 145 138 Dampier/Hedland Australia MAC lumps 62 140 133 Dampier/Hedland Australia YANDI lumps 58 132 125 Dampier/Hedland Brazil SFCJ 66 139 120 Tubarao/PDM Brazil SSFT 65 134 115 Tubarao/PDM Brazil SFOT 63 132 113 Tubarao/PDM Brazil Lumps 65 141 122 Tubarao/PDM
Brazil Pellets 66 156 136 Tubarao/PDM Chile Chile 63.5 127 84 Caldera 67 142 97 Caldera 63.5/63 135 123 Chennai/Paradip 63/62 132 120 Chennai/Paradip 61/60 127 113 Chennai/Paradip 62/61 130 116 Chennai/Paradip 60/59 123 109 Chennai/Paradip 59/58 120 106 Goa/Mangalore 58/57 118 104 Goa/Mangalore 55/54 100 88 Goa 53/52 93 81 Goa Indonesia Iron Sand 56/55 83 67 Jakarta Indonesia 51/50 69 55 Jakarta loaded at one n loaded at one n loaded at one n loaded at one n loaded at one n loaded at one n loaded at one n ; To be Northern s loaded at one n loaded at one n northern s Moisture: 14%;To be unloaded at Chinese northern
s Iran Hematite 62/61 115 96 BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Hematite 61/60 111 92 BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Hematite 60/59 108 89 BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Hematite 59/58 105 86 BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Magnetite 62/61 117 98 BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Magnetite 61/60 114 95 BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Magnetite 60/59 110 91 BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Magnetite 59/58 107 88 BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Mexico Lumps 58/57 91 77 PENANG 56/55 86 71 PENANG 51/50 65 51 PENANG 57/56 94 80 PENANG 63.5 127 92 Lazaro Mexico Lumps 63 129 94 Lazaro Mexico Magnetite 58 104 67 Lazaro Philippines 51/50 31 21 Subic Philippines Iron Sand 58/57 89 73 Subic Moisture: 10%;To be unloaded at Chinese Moisture: 12%;To be unloaded at Chinese Moisture: 14%;To be unloaded at Chinese Moisture: 9%;To be Moisture: 6%;To be Moisture: 6%;To be Moisture: 35%;To be unloaded at Chinese
Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Pellets Pellets Lumps 67 143 123 Black Sea 65 139 121 Black Sea 63.5 133 115 Murmansk 63 146 128 Black Sea 65 155 137 Black Sea 65/64.5 138 123 Durban/Elizabeth 65/64 148 133 Durban/Elizabeth 64.5 134 120 Durban/Elizabeth 60 119 104 Durban/Elizabeth South Africa Magnetite 56/54 87 70 Durban/Elizabeth Venezuela Venezuela Lumps 64/63.5 134 91 BOCA /Grande 64/63.5 138 95 BOCA /Grande Moisture: 8%; China Major Ports Moisture: 8%; China Major Ports Moisture: 8%; China Major Ports Moisture: 8%; China Major Ports Moisture: 8%; China Major Ports Moisture: 1%;To be